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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 28
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Central Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Credentials Remain Intact

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Credentials Remain Intact

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) surprised with a strong set of 1Q2024 numbers driven by unseasonably strong loan growth coupled with continuing growth in CASA, helping to underpin NIMs. 
  • Loan growth was driven by corporate loans with investment loans outpacing working capital loans together with SME loans and consumer loans, especially mortgages, autos, and personal loans. 
  • Digital banking initiatives drove customer numbers and transactions, whilst improving operating efficiencies. Credit costs continue to come down with falling loans at risk. Valuations remain high but credentials remain intact. 

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Apr 28
0

Daily Brief China: Tencent, Xiaomi Corp, China Life Insurance Co H, China Merchants Bank A and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying on Banks/Energy Telco SOEs. Again.
  • [Xiaomi (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$20) Rating Change]: Xiaomi EV Came at the Right Time of Consolidation
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Apr 2024):  Best Week in a LONG Time for Hs Vs As – Time To Get Long H/A
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024): Big NB Buy Friday

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying on Banks/Energy Telco SOEs. Again.

By Travis Lundy

  • A shares were up small on the week, largely due to a big rally on Friday (led by record Northbound buying). HK Stocks had a HUGE week. 
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK10.3bn. Net buys every day and now 20 days straight, but buying was foreign-led.
  • Little market news. More geopolitical news. Big SOE bank H-shares see relentless buying. HSTECH +13.4%, HSI +8.8%, HSCEI +9.1%.

[Xiaomi (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$20) Rating Change]: Xiaomi EV Came at the Right Time of Consolidation

By Eric Wen

  • Performance of SU7 so far, margin of EV biz and globalization potential prompted us to take another look at Xiaomi and we like what we saw;
  • Xiaomi surprised during the Investor Day by guiding SU7 gross margin of 5-10%. Delivery guidance also surprised to ship 100k units in 2024. 
  • We raise EV profitability estimates on margin guidance and expect market share to expand as it expands to SUVs.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Apr 2024):  Best Week in a LONG Time for Hs Vs As – Time To Get Long H/A

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. 20 days straight net buying. NORTHBOUND saw big inflows Friday. A record day I believe.
  • HK stocks bounced VERY hard. Seemed like big allocation trade. HSCEI +8.7% vs CSI300 +1.2%. In H/A Pairs, liquid pairs saw Hs outperform their A by 4+% on average.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024): Big NB Buy Friday

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 25+bn of A-shares on low gross volume but a huge Friday playing catchup to a massive up-week in HK shares. 
  • H outperformed As and it feels like the massive day Friday was just to play reversion on underperformance vs HK shares.

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Apr 28
0

Daily Brief Japan: Roland DG Corp, Nikkei 225, Keisei Electric Railway Co, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Bumps as Brother (6448 JP) Now Faces a Dilemma
  • EQD | Nikkei’s Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American
  • Few Companies Have Started to Move Yet, but Can They Raise R & D Investment to Regain Pricing Power?

Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Bumps as Brother (6448 JP) Now Faces a Dilemma

By Arun George

  • Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) has re-recommended Taiyo’s revised offer of JPY5,370, which is 6.7% higher than its previous JPY5,035 offer and 3.3% higher than Brother Industries (6448 JP)’s JPY5,200 offer.
  • The Board articulates a compelling case on Brother’s offer dis-synergies, which will help swing some shareholder opinion towards Taiyo (irrespective of the price). 
  • Brother could bump, but it would not address the issue of satisfying the condition precedent (non-completion of Taiyo offer) and securing the Board’s recommendation.  

EQD | Nikkei’s Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is closing the month of April in negative territory, first month down after 3 months up.
  • Our seasonal model indicates that May could also close down, but the index should find strong support in the 37770-36750 price area.
  • The month of May is a coin flip: the index could close up or down, caution is advised.

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

By David Blennerhassett

Few Companies Have Started to Move Yet, but Can They Raise R & D Investment to Regain Pricing Power?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Asset Turnover and ROA deteriorated as a result of accumulating cash on hand rather than investing. There was also insufficient R&D to create products that could have stronger pricing power.
  • Conditions are ripe for investment expansion, as demand for equipment replacement is rising due to long-standing CapEx restraints, and there is no need to accumulate more cash.
  • Companies are now in the stage of raising return on capital to increase reinvested cash flow from the stage of temporarily increasing earnings through price pass-through.

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Apr 28
0

Daily Brief ESG: A Country Without Shareholder Rights (주주 권리가 없는 나라) – A Book Review and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • A Country Without Shareholder Rights (주주 권리가 없는 나라) – A Book Review
  • Few Companies Have Started to Move Yet, but Can They Raise R & D Investment to Regain Pricing Power?

A Country Without Shareholder Rights (주주 권리가 없는 나라) – A Book Review

By Douglas Kim

  • This insight is a book review of 주주 권리가 없는 나라 (A Country Without Shareholder Rights), which is one of the best books on the corporate governance in Korea.
  • There are so much wisdom that are included in this book. The author really goes into details about numerous corporate governance problems in Korea and ways to fix them.
  • This book was published in January 2024 and it was written by a famous Korean retail investor called Park Young-Ok.

Few Companies Have Started to Move Yet, but Can They Raise R & D Investment to Regain Pricing Power?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Asset Turnover and ROA deteriorated as a result of accumulating cash on hand rather than investing. There was also insufficient R&D to create products that could have stronger pricing power.
  • Conditions are ripe for investment expansion, as demand for equipment replacement is rising due to long-standing CapEx restraints, and there is no need to accumulate more cash.
  • Companies are now in the stage of raising return on capital to increase reinvested cash flow from the stage of temporarily increasing earnings through price pass-through.

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 28
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): From Savings to Wealth Creation: The Financialization of Indian Households and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • From Savings to Wealth Creation: The Financialization of Indian Households
  • GEMWeekly (26 Apr 2024): South Korea Macro; Tencent, Bharti Airtel, Meituan

From Savings to Wealth Creation: The Financialization of Indian Households

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Indian household savings seeing a significant transition from traditional assets to financial assets
  • More than transition, there is a transformative trend ahead for financialization of savings paving way for Indian Households a decadal opportunity of wealth creation
  • What happened in US could happen in India over the next few decades – Significant wealth creation opportunity

GEMWeekly (26 Apr 2024): South Korea Macro; Tencent, Bharti Airtel, Meituan

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: South Korea 1Q 2024 GDP growth report.
  • Companies mentioned:Tencent (700 HK), Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN), Meituan (3690 HK)

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Apr 28
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Bumps as Brother (6448 JP) Now Faces a Dilemma and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Bumps as Brother (6448 JP) Now Faces a Dilemma
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying on Banks/Energy Telco SOEs. Again.
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Apr 2024):  Best Week in a LONG Time for Hs Vs As – Time To Get Long H/A
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024): Big NB Buy Friday
  • EQD | Nikkei’s Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American
  • CSR (CSR AU): 13th June Shareholder Vote

Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Bumps as Brother (6448 JP) Now Faces a Dilemma

By Arun George

  • Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) has re-recommended Taiyo’s revised offer of JPY5,370, which is 6.7% higher than its previous JPY5,035 offer and 3.3% higher than Brother Industries (6448 JP)’s JPY5,200 offer.
  • The Board articulates a compelling case on Brother’s offer dis-synergies, which will help swing some shareholder opinion towards Taiyo (irrespective of the price). 
  • Brother could bump, but it would not address the issue of satisfying the condition precedent (non-completion of Taiyo offer) and securing the Board’s recommendation.  

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying on Banks/Energy Telco SOEs. Again.

By Travis Lundy

  • A shares were up small on the week, largely due to a big rally on Friday (led by record Northbound buying). HK Stocks had a HUGE week. 
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK10.3bn. Net buys every day and now 20 days straight, but buying was foreign-led.
  • Little market news. More geopolitical news. Big SOE bank H-shares see relentless buying. HSTECH +13.4%, HSI +8.8%, HSCEI +9.1%.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive

By David Blennerhassett

A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Apr 2024):  Best Week in a LONG Time for Hs Vs As – Time To Get Long H/A

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. 20 days straight net buying. NORTHBOUND saw big inflows Friday. A record day I believe.
  • HK stocks bounced VERY hard. Seemed like big allocation trade. HSCEI +8.7% vs CSI300 +1.2%. In H/A Pairs, liquid pairs saw Hs outperform their A by 4+% on average.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024): Big NB Buy Friday

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 25+bn of A-shares on low gross volume but a huge Friday playing catchup to a massive up-week in HK shares. 
  • H outperformed As and it feels like the massive day Friday was just to play reversion on underperformance vs HK shares.

EQD | Nikkei’s Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is closing the month of April in negative territory, first month down after 3 months up.
  • Our seasonal model indicates that May could also close down, but the index should find strong support in the 37770-36750 price area.
  • The month of May is a coin flip: the index could close up or down, caution is advised.

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

By David Blennerhassett

CSR (CSR AU): 13th June Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • After pitching an indicative Offer to CSR (CSR AU) shareholders of A$9/share by way of a Scheme on the 21st Feb, Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) firmed terms on the 26th Feb.  
  • $9.00 is a knockout Offer. The business combination has been unanimously approved by the boards of both companies. Conditions include CSR’s shareholder approval and FIRB signing off. 
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 13th June. Expected implementation on the 9 July. IE says fair & reasonable. 

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 28
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Memory Monitor: What SK Hynix Sees For PC and Server Markets Ahead; TSMC’s Strength Vs. Samsung and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Memory Monitor: What SK Hynix Sees For PC and Server Markets Ahead; TSMC’s Strength Vs. Samsung
  • [Xiaomi (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$20) Rating Change]: Xiaomi EV Came at the Right Time of Consolidation
  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Credentials Remain Intact

Memory Monitor: What SK Hynix Sees For PC and Server Markets Ahead; TSMC’s Strength Vs. Samsung

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • SK Reports Massive Margin Rebound; Nanya Tech’s Financial Performance Appears Relatively Weak in Perspective
  • AI Applications Now Translating Into Rising Solid-State Memory (SSD) Demand
  • SK Povided Positive Color for Taiwan PC Names; New TSMC Collaboration Highlights TSMC Strength vs. Samsung

[Xiaomi (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$20) Rating Change]: Xiaomi EV Came at the Right Time of Consolidation

By Eric Wen

  • Performance of SU7 so far, margin of EV biz and globalization potential prompted us to take another look at Xiaomi and we like what we saw;
  • Xiaomi surprised during the Investor Day by guiding SU7 gross margin of 5-10%. Delivery guidance also surprised to ship 100k units in 2024. 
  • We raise EV profitability estimates on margin guidance and expect market share to expand as it expands to SUVs.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Credentials Remain Intact

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) surprised with a strong set of 1Q2024 numbers driven by unseasonably strong loan growth coupled with continuing growth in CASA, helping to underpin NIMs. 
  • Loan growth was driven by corporate loans with investment loans outpacing working capital loans together with SME loans and consumer loans, especially mortgages, autos, and personal loans. 
  • Digital banking initiatives drove customer numbers and transactions, whilst improving operating efficiencies. Credit costs continue to come down with falling loans at risk. Valuations remain high but credentials remain intact. 

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 28
0

Most Read: Bangchak Corporation, Robosense Technology, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Roland DG Corp, Tencent, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, BHP Group Ltd, Fanuc Corp, China Life Insurance Co H and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June
  • Korea Value-Up Guidelines Release Date Is Set for May 2nd
  • Taiyo Pacific Overbids Brother for Roland DG (6789)
  • Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Bumps as Brother (6448 JP) Now Faces a Dilemma
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying on Banks/Energy Telco SOEs. Again.
  • Memory Monitor: What SK Hynix Sees For PC and Server Markets Ahead; TSMC’s Strength Vs. Samsung
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive
  • Fanuc (6954 JP): Guidance Points Down, but the Market Sees Recovery
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Apr 2024):  Best Week in a LONG Time for Hs Vs As – Time To Get Long H/A

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June

By Brian Freitas

  • There were only 12 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in the first quarter of the year. More than half the listings were in March.
  • Of those stocks, we only see Robosense Technology (2498 HK) having a chance of being added to the HSCI in June and then into Southbound Stock Connect.
  • There is a big lock-up expiry for Robosense Technology (2498 HK) in July and that should keep the stock under pressure.

Korea Value-Up Guidelines Release Date Is Set for May 2nd

By Sanghyun Park

  • Chosun reports Korean financial authorities advance Value-up plan guidelines to May 2nd, citing momentum decline post-election. Chosun’s credibility enhances report validity.
  • Companies will commence Value-up-related disclosures in alignment with the guidelines within May. A dedicated Value-up website is set to launch in May.
  • The May 2nd guideline release date is crucial for Value-up momentum trading. Anticipate heightened volatility in Value-up stocks approaching this date.

Taiyo Pacific Overbids Brother for Roland DG (6789)

By Travis Lundy

  • Originally, Brother Industries (6448 JP) wanted to buy Roland DG Corp (6789 JP).  Roland invited others to bid, didn’t tell Brother, then said Taiyo Pacific’s ¥5,035 bid won.
  • That was low. Weeks later, Brother lobbed a ¥5,200 overbid. They are going through the approvals process but it isn’t clear Brother is negotiating.
  • Taiyo has extended and extended and shown up in interviews. Now it has overbid at ¥5,370.

Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Bumps as Brother (6448 JP) Now Faces a Dilemma

By Arun George

  • Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) has re-recommended Taiyo’s revised offer of JPY5,370, which is 6.7% higher than its previous JPY5,035 offer and 3.3% higher than Brother Industries (6448 JP)’s JPY5,200 offer.
  • The Board articulates a compelling case on Brother’s offer dis-synergies, which will help swing some shareholder opinion towards Taiyo (irrespective of the price). 
  • Brother could bump, but it would not address the issue of satisfying the condition precedent (non-completion of Taiyo offer) and securing the Board’s recommendation.  

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying on Banks/Energy Telco SOEs. Again.

By Travis Lundy

  • A shares were up small on the week, largely due to a big rally on Friday (led by record Northbound buying). HK Stocks had a HUGE week. 
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK10.3bn. Net buys every day and now 20 days straight, but buying was foreign-led.
  • Little market news. More geopolitical news. Big SOE bank H-shares see relentless buying. HSTECH +13.4%, HSI +8.8%, HSCEI +9.1%.

Memory Monitor: What SK Hynix Sees For PC and Server Markets Ahead; TSMC’s Strength Vs. Samsung

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • SK Reports Massive Margin Rebound; Nanya Tech’s Financial Performance Appears Relatively Weak in Perspective
  • AI Applications Now Translating Into Rising Solid-State Memory (SSD) Demand
  • SK Povided Positive Color for Taiwan PC Names; New TSMC Collaboration Highlights TSMC Strength vs. Samsung

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive

By David Blennerhassett

Fanuc (6954 JP): Guidance Points Down, but the Market Sees Recovery

By Scott Foster

  • Fanuc was up 4.7% this past week as the market reacted to a slight uptick in orders and transparently conservative guidance.
  • The book-to-bill ratio remained below 1.0 in 4Q of FY Mar-24, but was up from 3Q, which appears to have been the low point in the cycle.
  • Inflation and ongoing inventory adjustments indicate a slow recovery, but demand for automation  from traditional markets and new opportunities in aerospace and other industries should support long-term growth.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Apr 2024):  Best Week in a LONG Time for Hs Vs As – Time To Get Long H/A

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. 20 days straight net buying. NORTHBOUND saw big inflows Friday. A record day I believe.
  • HK stocks bounced VERY hard. Seemed like big allocation trade. HSCEI +8.7% vs CSI300 +1.2%. In H/A Pairs, liquid pairs saw Hs outperform their A by 4+% on average.

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 28
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T, Keisei Electric Railway Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • A Country Without Shareholder Rights (주주 권리가 없는 나라) – A Book Review
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

A Country Without Shareholder Rights (주주 권리가 없는 나라) – A Book Review

By Douglas Kim

  • This insight is a book review of 주주 권리가 없는 나라 (A Country Without Shareholder Rights), which is one of the best books on the corporate governance in Korea.
  • There are so much wisdom that are included in this book. The author really goes into details about numerous corporate governance problems in Korea and ways to fix them.
  • This book was published in January 2024 and it was written by a famous Korean retail investor called Park Young-Ok.

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

By David Blennerhassett

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Apr 28
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: BHP Group Ltd, CSR Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive
  • CSR (CSR AU): 13th June Shareholder Vote

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive

By David Blennerhassett

CSR (CSR AU): 13th June Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • After pitching an indicative Offer to CSR (CSR AU) shareholders of A$9/share by way of a Scheme on the 21st Feb, Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) firmed terms on the 26th Feb.  
  • $9.00 is a knockout Offer. The business combination has been unanimously approved by the boards of both companies. Conditions include CSR’s shareholder approval and FIRB signing off. 
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 13th June. Expected implementation on the 9 July. IE says fair & reasonable. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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