All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief United States: Tesla , Visa, Netflix Inc, S&P 500 INDEX, Pepsico Inc, Texas Instruments, GCC SAB de CV, Matthews Intl Corp Class A, WD-40 Company, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Tesla Inc.: Growth As An AI Company And Its Future in Power Generation and Distributed Computing! – Major Drivers
  • Visa Inc.: How Is It Capturing Market Share From Domestic Card Networks? – Major Drivers
  • Netflix Inc.: A Shift In Reporting Focus from Subscriptions to Revenue and Engagement – But What Lies Ahead? – Major Drivers
  • Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding
  • PepsiCo Inc.: These Are The 6 Fundamental Factors Driving Its Performance in 2024 & Beyond! – Financial Forecasts
  • Texas Instruments: Fresh Investments In Manufacturing & Technology & 5 Critical Growth Drivers
  • GCC (Outperform): Results 1Q24; Positive Q-Report Beating Our Estimates
  • Matthews Intl Corp -Cl A (MATW) – Tuesday, Jan 30, 2024
  • Wd-40 Company (WDFC) – Tuesday, Jan 30, 2024
  • Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.: Focus On Decarbonization


Tesla Inc.: Growth As An AI Company And Its Future in Power Generation and Distributed Computing! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tesla Inc.’s first-quarter earnings for 2024 offered a critical and insightful update on the electric vehicle manufacturer’s strategy and financial performance.
  • Tesla appears committed to its strategic focus on vehicle autonomy and digitisation, with CEO Elon Musk stating that the company should be viewed primarily as an AI (Artificial Intelligence) and robotics firm, underlining its commitment to Full Self-Driving (FSD) as a key future revenue stream.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Visa Inc.: How Is It Capturing Market Share From Domestic Card Networks? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Visa’s Fiscal Second Quarter 2024 Earnings indicate that Visa appears to be standing on solid financial ground with plenty of room for growth.
  • The leading global payments technology company recorded $8.8 billion in net revenue for the quarter, marking a 10% increase.
  • Its GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS) rose by 12%, while non-GAAP EPS also saw an upward movement by 20%.

Netflix Inc.: A Shift In Reporting Focus from Subscriptions to Revenue and Engagement – But What Lies Ahead? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Netflix Inc.’s Q1 2024 earnings highlighted a number of impactful developments and strategic shifts that investors should consider.
  • The company’s management team made it clear that while they’ll no longer be reporting quarterly membership in ARM data starting in 2025, they will continue to provide updates on key metrics including revenue, OI, OI margin, net income, EPS, and free cash flow.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

By Joe Jasper

  • While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be “in” for this pullback.
  • Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons
  • We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market

PepsiCo Inc.: These Are The 6 Fundamental Factors Driving Its Performance in 2024 & Beyond! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • PepsiCo’s recorded performance in the Q1 2024 earnings signaled steady growth and improvement across a range of business areas.
  • The company’s leadership tone was grounded in its strong performance, highlighting several positive aspects as well as acknowledging a few challenges faced during the fiscal quarter.
  • PepsiCo’s robust international performance was repeatedly underlined as one of the highlights of Q1 2024.

Texas Instruments: Fresh Investments In Manufacturing & Technology & 5 Critical Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Texas Instruments (TI) reported a first quarter of 2024 revenue that met expectations, despite witnessing a 10% sequential and 16% year-over-year decrease to $3.7bn.
  • Revenue declined across all of its end markets as customers continued to pare their inventory levels.
  • In terms of individual revenue components, Analog revenue declined 14% year-over-year, Embedded Processing declined 22%, and the Other segment declined 33% from the year-ago quarter.

GCC (Outperform): Results 1Q24; Positive Q-Report Beating Our Estimates

By Actinver

  • GCC (Outperform): posted positive results, which are above our estimates.
  • Higher prices in cement and ready-mix supported solid results.
  • Consolidated EBITDA increased +32% YoY, while the EBITDA margin reached 30.4% (+4.6 pp. YoY).

Matthews Intl Corp -Cl A (MATW) – Tuesday, Jan 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Matthews International is an undervalued diversified industrial company
  • The potential IPO of its machinery segment for dry battery electrodes could unlock value
  • The Industrial Technology segment, with Tesla as a customer, has significant potential for growth and value creation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Wd-40 Company (WDFC) – Tuesday, Jan 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Shorting suggestion for WD-40 due to potential decrease in earnings growth
  • High multiple of earnings guidance and projected 50% decrease in stock price
  • Factors including temporary demand spike, significant price hike, and concerns about future growth cited as reasons for shorting suggestion

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.: Focus On Decarbonization

By Baptista Research

  • Cleveland-Cliffs Inc in their Q1 2024 Earnings has placed particular emphasize on their tactic of share buybacks as an essential capital allocation method.
  • During this time period, the firm was able to procure over 30 million of its own shares, utilizing approximately $608 million from a previous $1 billion share buyback program announced in 2022.
  • Over the past few years, the company’s diluted share count has been lowered by over 100 million shares, reflecting a significant 17% reduction and pointing to an average purchase price of $18.79 per share, a price point considerably lower than the current trading price.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Indonesia: Astra International, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) – Striking a Balance with Finance
  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – The Bank Has Levers to Pull On


Astra International (ASII IJ) – Striking a Balance with Finance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) just released 1Q2024 results, which reflected the softer auto and heavy equipment markets, although buoyed by better earnings for its finance arm, 
  • The company’s headline net profit was down -14% YoY but stripping out value adjustments was only down -5% YoY, with management optimistic over the longer term. 
  • Astra continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations attractive on 6.6x FY2024E PER and a 7.2% dividend yield. 

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – The Bank Has Levers to Pull On

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results driven by +9.6% YoY growth in loans, despite being hampered by higher cost of funds amid tighter liquidity.
  • Loan growth was driven by corporate lending, with corporate SOE lending showing the strongest growth and consumer loans. Funding was driven by CASA growth which limited the squeeze on NIMs. 
  • Bank Negara Indonesia booked strong growth in fee income and a reduction in provisions which helped to offset the margin squeeze. Valuations remain attractive on 1.2x FY2024E PBV.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief India: HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Limited, TBO Tek, Premier Energies Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Looking Beyond Short-Term Headwinds
  • Mohit Joshi: The Man Behind Tech Mahindra’s Strategic Shift
  • Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 1: We like Quality Name HDFC Bank, Baroda Is the Value Pick
  • TBO Tek Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates & Peer Comparison
  • Premier Energies Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis


HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Looking Beyond Short-Term Headwinds

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • While HDFCB’s results have been somewhat lackluster over the past couple of quarters, this has been largely due to merger-related drags, tight liquidity and irrational competition in the marketplace.
  • From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the growth prospects for HDFCB remain tremendously attractive despite its large size, as evident from its consistent market share gains in deposits.
  • Q4FY24 earnings came largely in line with the expectation in terms of core earnings, except for one-off gain from an asset sale that was more than offset by floating provisions.

Mohit Joshi: The Man Behind Tech Mahindra’s Strategic Shift

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Under Mohit Joshi’s leadership, Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN) targets a 15%+ EBIT margin and revenue growth surpassing industry averages by FY2027, with a focus on operational reform and portfolio integration.
  • Project Fortius aims to achieve $250 million annual cost savings over 3 years, emphasizing high-margin services and organic growth, signaling a departure from  reliance on traditional acquisitions.
  • This strategic shift towards operational efficiency and organic growth alters the company’s outlook, positioning Tech Mahindra for sustainable growth and shareholder returns, underlining a commitment to long-term value creation.

Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 1: We like Quality Name HDFC Bank, Baroda Is the Value Pick

By Victor Galliano

  • HDFC Bank results to FYE24 are improving and we retain it as a buy, with pre-provision returns improving slightly QoQ and best in peer group NPL ratio and coverage
  • Bank of Baroda is our core value Indian bank pick, for its undemanding valuations, healthy ROE and potential for NPL improvements
  • Bandhan bank is a potential contrarian pick for its value attributes; we are cautious on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks, low core capital ratio 

TBO Tek Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates & Peer Comparison

By Ethan Aw

  • TBO Tek (0395045D IN) is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • TBO Tek is a global travel distribution platform. Its two-sided technology platform serves companies involved in the travel industry such as hotels, airlines, travel agencies and travel management companies.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its refiling updates and undertake a peer comparison.

Premier Energies Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is into manufacturing of solar cells and modules. The company is the second largest integrated player (cell+module) in India with a market share of 28%
  • The business has picked up in the last two years. Revenues, order book and capacities have increased and margins have also seen improvement. 
  • However, the company is struggling on cash conversion on the back of highly levered balance sheet. Focus should also be on few questionable related party transactions.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: Super Hi International Holding, L’Occitane, Luckin Coffee, China Oil And Gas, West China Cement, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Super Hi International US ADS – Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Really Need the Cash
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, April 2024: Austal, L’Occitane, Langham Hosp., Jastec, Mimasu, Best World, Isetan
  • [Luckin (LKNCY US, SELL, TP US$17) Rating Change]: Old Tricks Might Have Run Out of Its Use
  • China Oil & Gas – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Nickel Industries , West China Cement
  • Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692.HK) – Growth Would Remain Strong in 2024, but Ameile Is Facing Headwinds


Super Hi International US ADS – Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Really Need the Cash

By Sumeet Singh

  • Super Hi International Holding (9658 HK) aims to raise around US$100m in its US ADR IPO. MS and Huatai are on the deal.
  • Super Hi International (SHI) is a Chinese cuisine restaurant brand, operating Haidilao hot pot restaurants in the international market. 
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and the listing impact.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, April 2024: Austal, L’Occitane, Langham Hosp., Jastec, Mimasu, Best World, Isetan

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of April 2024, 7 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~42%
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

[Luckin (LKNCY US, SELL, TP US$17) Rating Change]: Old Tricks Might Have Run Out of Its Use

By Eric Wen

  • Despite Cotti’s difficulties, we are seeing intensified competition with well-funded competitors like Starbucks and KFC, joining the price war, which poses challenges to Luckin’s effort at raising prices.
  • We see Luckin at losing its coffee differentiation. We revised down average store sales growth to (5%)/(10%)YoY due to weak sales caused by the narrowing scope of the RMB9.9 promotion
  • We downgrade the stock rating from BUY to SELL and lower TP to US$17/ADS.

China Oil & Gas – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

COG’s FY 2023 results were acceptable in our view. Importantly, the audit issues resulting in the belated publication of results appear to be minor, with auditor PwC giving a clean audit opinion overall. Leverage was largely stable despite the soft earnings, thanks to debt reduction. In addition, we view positively that the guarantees provided to associate Shandong Shengli (which we classify under debt) have largely fallen away. COG’s liquidity is adequate, as the company is poised to refinance the bridge loan using a new syndicated loan facility.

We move our recommendation to “Buy” from “Hold” on the CHIOIL 4.7 ’26s.


Morning Views Asia: Nickel Industries , West China Cement

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692.HK) – Growth Would Remain Strong in 2024, but Ameile Is Facing Headwinds

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Hansoh’s performance in 2023 beat expectations, which was mainly driven by collaboration revenue. Revenue proportion of innovative drug business made breakthrough and has become the major performance driver.
  • Ameile’s future revenue growth is critical to Hansoh, but it faces increasing competition. EGFR/c-MET BsAb represents the future trend. If HS-20117 is successful, then the story of EGFR would continue.
  • In 2024, Hansoh is expected to receive an upfront payment of US$185 million from GSK. According to the management, revenue is expected to have double digit growth this year.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Japan: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Sumitomo Chemical, Shin Etsu Chemical, Ono Pharmaceutical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric Rail (9009): For Relative Value Trade
  • Sumitomo Chemical (4005): Up Is Down
  • Shin-Etsu (4063) – Too High, Too Fast
  • Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Deciphera Acquisition Will Not Bring Immediate Respite


Keisei Electric Rail (9009): For Relative Value Trade

By Henry Soediarko

  • The activist investor is back and has demanded further action to unlock value from Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)  management.
  • Operational numbers are still healthy, but growth is not as large due to the high base.
  • Immediate pressure to divest Oriental Land thus short Oriental Land (4661 JP)  and long Keisei.

Sumitomo Chemical (4005): Up Is Down

By Michael Allen

  • Sumitomo issued new guidance for the year to 3/25 that was 40% higher than consensus estimates, but the stock cratered almost 5%.
  • We were able to think of at least 6 explanations for this odd reaction – all of them irrational.  
  • A reasonable person listening to the call should have been pleased by almost all that was new information. 

Shin-Etsu (4063) – Too High, Too Fast

By Michael Allen

  • On April 24, Shin-Etsu (4063) posted its fifth consecutive OP decline and guided for a sixth, but the stock has outperformed Topix by 22% in the past 12 months. 
  • OP for the year ended March 2024 was JPY141.5bn, vs. consensus estimates of JPY168.9bn. This was the fifth consecutive miss, and the fourth of more than 10%. 
  • The Chinese economy is killing the company’s core core Polyvinyl Chloride Resins business and seemingly interminable inventory issues are holding back a recovery in the semiconductor materials business. 

Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Deciphera Acquisition Will Not Bring Immediate Respite

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP) is acquiring Deciphera Pharmaceuticals (DCPH US) for $25.60/share in cash through a tender offer. The total equity value of the acquisition is approximately $2.4B.
  • Ono is expected to reap the benefit of Deciphera acquisition earliest from FY27. In the short-run, the company’s major problem of loss of revenue will not be addressed.
  • Ono needs to stretch its balance sheet to fund Deciphera acquisition. The acquisition will be earnings dilutive for Ono. Pricey valuation of the deal is another deterrent.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding


Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

By Joe Jasper

  • While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be “in” for this pullback.
  • Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons
  • We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Slump at Month End and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Slump at Month End
  • Siltronic Slashes 2024 Sales Forecast As Inventory Woes Worsen


Ohayo Japan | Stocks Slump at Month End

By Mark Chadwick

  • April proved challenging for markets, with the Dow recording its worst monthly performance since September 2022, down 5%.
  • After hours, Advanced Micro Devices fell over 7% despite slightly beating revenue estimates at $5.47 billion, with gaming segment revenue down 48%
  • Super Micro Computer dropped almost 8% despite beating earnings estimates

Siltronic Slashes 2024 Sales Forecast As Inventory Woes Worsen

By William Keating

  • Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release
  • Inventory levels, while gradually improving, are still at all time record highs
  • In the case of Siltronic, it seems likely that Automotive end-market weakness is the main culprit

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ECM: Endeavour Group Placement – While There Is an Overhang and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Endeavour Group Placement – While There Is an Overhang, Selldown Now Appears Well Flagged
  • Super Hi International US ADS – Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Really Need the Cash
  • TBO Tek Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates & Peer Comparison
  • Premier Energies Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis


Endeavour Group Placement – While There Is an Overhang, Selldown Now Appears Well Flagged

By Clarence Chu

  • Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) is looking to raise A$468m (US$305m) from selling its stake in Endeavour Group /Australia (EDV AU).
  • Endeavour Group was demerged from Woolworths in Jun 2021 and it runs the drinks and hospitality business of Woolworths.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Super Hi International US ADS – Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Really Need the Cash

By Sumeet Singh

  • Super Hi International Holding (9658 HK) aims to raise around US$100m in its US ADR IPO. MS and Huatai are on the deal.
  • Super Hi International (SHI) is a Chinese cuisine restaurant brand, operating Haidilao hot pot restaurants in the international market. 
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and the listing impact.

TBO Tek Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates & Peer Comparison

By Ethan Aw

  • TBO Tek (0395045D IN) is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • TBO Tek is a global travel distribution platform. Its two-sided technology platform serves companies involved in the travel industry such as hotels, airlines, travel agencies and travel management companies.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its refiling updates and undertake a peer comparison.

Premier Energies Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is into manufacturing of solar cells and modules. The company is the second largest integrated player (cell+module) in India with a market share of 28%
  • The business has picked up in the last two years. Revenues, order book and capacities have increased and margins have also seen improvement. 
  • However, the company is struggling on cash conversion on the back of highly levered balance sheet. Focus should also be on few questionable related party transactions.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Credit: China Oil & Gas – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Oil & Gas – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Nickel Industries , West China Cement


China Oil & Gas – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

COG’s FY 2023 results were acceptable in our view. Importantly, the audit issues resulting in the belated publication of results appear to be minor, with auditor PwC giving a clean audit opinion overall. Leverage was largely stable despite the soft earnings, thanks to debt reduction. In addition, we view positively that the guarantees provided to associate Shandong Shengli (which we classify under debt) have largely fallen away. COG’s liquidity is adequate, as the company is poised to refinance the bridge loan using a new syndicated loan facility.

We move our recommendation to “Buy” from “Hold” on the CHIOIL 4.7 ’26s.


Morning Views Asia: Nickel Industries , West China Cement

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Keisei Electric Rail (9009): For Relative Value Trade and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric Rail (9009): For Relative Value Trade
  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Looking Beyond Short-Term Headwinds
  • Sumitomo Chemical (4005): Up Is Down
  • Astra International (ASII IJ) – Striking a Balance with Finance
  • Shin-Etsu (4063) – Too High, Too Fast
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Apr-2024): AI server cooling: liquid & air solutions
  • Deep Dive Into Samsung’s Memory & Foundry Results: TSMC, AI PC, Server, AI Phone Implications
  • PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle
  • Mohit Joshi: The Man Behind Tech Mahindra’s Strategic Shift
  • Tesla Inc.: Growth As An AI Company And Its Future in Power Generation and Distributed Computing! – Major Drivers


Keisei Electric Rail (9009): For Relative Value Trade

By Henry Soediarko

  • The activist investor is back and has demanded further action to unlock value from Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)  management.
  • Operational numbers are still healthy, but growth is not as large due to the high base.
  • Immediate pressure to divest Oriental Land thus short Oriental Land (4661 JP)  and long Keisei.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Looking Beyond Short-Term Headwinds

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • While HDFCB’s results have been somewhat lackluster over the past couple of quarters, this has been largely due to merger-related drags, tight liquidity and irrational competition in the marketplace.
  • From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the growth prospects for HDFCB remain tremendously attractive despite its large size, as evident from its consistent market share gains in deposits.
  • Q4FY24 earnings came largely in line with the expectation in terms of core earnings, except for one-off gain from an asset sale that was more than offset by floating provisions.

Sumitomo Chemical (4005): Up Is Down

By Michael Allen

  • Sumitomo issued new guidance for the year to 3/25 that was 40% higher than consensus estimates, but the stock cratered almost 5%.
  • We were able to think of at least 6 explanations for this odd reaction – all of them irrational.  
  • A reasonable person listening to the call should have been pleased by almost all that was new information. 

Astra International (ASII IJ) – Striking a Balance with Finance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) just released 1Q2024 results, which reflected the softer auto and heavy equipment markets, although buoyed by better earnings for its finance arm, 
  • The company’s headline net profit was down -14% YoY but stripping out value adjustments was only down -5% YoY, with management optimistic over the longer term. 
  • Astra continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations attractive on 6.6x FY2024E PER and a 7.2% dividend yield. 

Shin-Etsu (4063) – Too High, Too Fast

By Michael Allen

  • On April 24, Shin-Etsu (4063) posted its fifth consecutive OP decline and guided for a sixth, but the stock has outperformed Topix by 22% in the past 12 months. 
  • OP for the year ended March 2024 was JPY141.5bn, vs. consensus estimates of JPY168.9bn. This was the fifth consecutive miss, and the fourth of more than 10%. 
  • The Chinese economy is killing the company’s core core Polyvinyl Chloride Resins business and seemingly interminable inventory issues are holding back a recovery in the semiconductor materials business. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Apr-2024): AI server cooling: liquid & air solutions

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • AI server cooling options include liquid & air solutions to improve efficiency and performance.
  • India is set to introduce a new chip incentive package to boost its semiconductor industry.
  • Apple’s supply chain expansion in Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam, has been significant, while MediaTek aims for 30% market share in China with upcoming flagship SoC.

Deep Dive Into Samsung’s Memory & Foundry Results: TSMC, AI PC, Server, AI Phone Implications

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Samsung 1Q24 results beat consensus by a wide margin and the company gave strong guidance for its Memory segment, guiding for further strength driven by servers, PCs, & phones needs.
  • Guided strong demand for PC/Mobile Memory in 2H24E driven by on-device AI, which supports the case of edge AI hardware beginning to drive demand in addition to cloud/server-based AI hardware.
  • Foundry segment’s losses reduced, but still loss-making? Samsung’s order backlog is at an all-time high but Samsung Foundry results suggest manufacturing yield performance likely well behind TSMC.

PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Branded PC makers’ shares have been mostly lower in April, however Intel and Microsoft developments are providing strong signals for a future PC upgrade cycle into AI PCs.
  • Over 60% of Fortune 500 companies are now using Microsoft’s CoPilot AI assistant; Intel expects the industry to exceed its prior forecast for AI PC shipments in 2024E.
  • CoPilot is the killer app that will trigger a global enterprise PC upgrade cycle; The next generation of CoPilot will be an edge AI app that will require powerful hardware.

Mohit Joshi: The Man Behind Tech Mahindra’s Strategic Shift

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Under Mohit Joshi’s leadership, Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN) targets a 15%+ EBIT margin and revenue growth surpassing industry averages by FY2027, with a focus on operational reform and portfolio integration.
  • Project Fortius aims to achieve $250 million annual cost savings over 3 years, emphasizing high-margin services and organic growth, signaling a departure from  reliance on traditional acquisitions.
  • This strategic shift towards operational efficiency and organic growth alters the company’s outlook, positioning Tech Mahindra for sustainable growth and shareholder returns, underlining a commitment to long-term value creation.

Tesla Inc.: Growth As An AI Company And Its Future in Power Generation and Distributed Computing! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tesla Inc.’s first-quarter earnings for 2024 offered a critical and insightful update on the electric vehicle manufacturer’s strategy and financial performance.
  • Tesla appears committed to its strategic focus on vehicle autonomy and digitisation, with CEO Elon Musk stating that the company should be viewed primarily as an AI (Artificial Intelligence) and robotics firm, underlining its commitment to Full Self-Driving (FSD) as a key future revenue stream.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars