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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: Ximalaya, China Resources Beverage, Yum China Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Pre-IPO Ximalaya – The Potential Risks and the Outlook
  • China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Remains a Minnow in Other Markets
  • Yum China (9987 HK/YUMC US):  Earnings Risk Materialized As 1Q24 Earnings Were Weak


Pre-IPO Ximalaya – The Potential Risks and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The key to Ximalaya turning losses into profits is not the outstanding performance in revenue side, but rather the effective cost control. The Company seems to have encountered growth bottleneck.
  • To achieve long-term stable profits, it’s necessary to continuously optimize content quality, improve user experience, and expand paying user scale, but Ximalaya has shown “signs of fatigue” in this regard. 
  • AI technology brings big room for imagination, but the question here is how much would truly translate into a leap in financial performance? Ximalaya’s valuation could be lower than peers.

China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Remains a Minnow in Other Markets

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Resources Beverage is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Yum China (9987 HK/YUMC US):  Earnings Risk Materialized As 1Q24 Earnings Were Weak

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)‘s 1Q24 earnings were weaker than the already lowered consensus expectations, as both sales and core operating profit only grew 1% yoy.
  • Same-Store-Sales declined by 3% yoy, and restaurant margin declined by 2.7ppt yoy, mainly due to more discounts offered.
  • China’s catering industry has changed compared to pre-COVID, where overall average selling price (ASP) is continually under pressure, and customers are increasing seeking value-for-money options.

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Daily Brief Japan: West Japan Railway Co, Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Peptidream Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • JR West (9021 JP) – Shareholder Structure Means Large-Ish Buyback Could Have Impact
  • AZ-Com Maruwa Launches Hostile TOB on Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) – Expect More Fun To Come
  • Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): AZ-COM Maruwa Calls the Board’s Bluff, Launches the Offer
  • TSE’s “Request” Is a Catalyst for a Final Decision on the Foundation of Years of Engagement
  • Peptidream (4587 JP): Steadily Riding the Next Wave of Drug Discovery


JR West (9021 JP) – Shareholder Structure Means Large-Ish Buyback Could Have Impact

By Travis Lundy


AZ-Com Maruwa Launches Hostile TOB on Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) – Expect More Fun To Come

By Travis Lundy

  • Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) had been sending out questions, and trying to get AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) to delay the start until at least late-May.
  • AZ-Com Maruwa answered questions (first and second set) and on the 24th, C&F asked AZ-Com to extend. They did not extend. AZ-Com announced the Tender Offer at ¥3,000 today.
  • C&F responded today saying the TOB is launched without C&F Board approval. Then they said some other things that might be disclosed when C&F’s Board presents its Target Opinion.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): AZ-COM Maruwa Calls the Board’s Bluff, Launches the Offer

By Arun George

  • AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) has satisfied the precondition for its hostile Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) JPY3,000 offer. The offer closes on 17 June (31 business days).
  • AZ-COM Maruwa has called the Board’s bluff by providing sufficient time (extending the offer period from 20 to 31 business days) for a white knight to lob a competing bidder.
  • While a bump is probable, the shares already factor in a significant bumpitrage premium. A potential bump has a good chance of being lower than the last close.

TSE’s “Request” Is a Catalyst for a Final Decision on the Foundation of Years of Engagement

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many companies have low liquidity since listing, with nearly half of companies having major shareholders with over 20% ownership. Raising listing criteria should considered to improve quality of the market.
  • TSE seems to raise the listing criteria for Growth Market in 2025, when the transitional measures expire, but for Prime Market, TSE is likely to respond with a “request.”
  • Although TSE’s “request” may be the catalyst for increasing MBOs and dissolution of parent-subsidiary listings, engagement with overseas investors over years to resolve management issues was foundation of this trend.

Peptidream (4587 JP): Steadily Riding the Next Wave of Drug Discovery

By Tina Banerjee

  • Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) has obtained first-in-human imaging studies approval for its first in-house peptide radiopharmaceutical therapeutic program, PD-32766 targeting patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma.
  • Novartis (NOVN SW) has expanded peptide discovery collaboration with Peptidream. The expanded partnership could bring up to $2.7B in milestone payments plus royalties to Peptidream.
  • In 2023, Peptidream reported revenue of ¥29B, up 7% YoY, with radiopharmaceutical revenue growing 40% YoY to ¥16B. For 2024, the company guided for revenue of ¥35B, up 22% YoY.  

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Daily Brief ESG: TSE’s “Request” Is a Catalyst for a Final Decision on the Foundation of Years of Engagement and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • TSE’s “Request” Is a Catalyst for a Final Decision on the Foundation of Years of Engagement


TSE’s “Request” Is a Catalyst for a Final Decision on the Foundation of Years of Engagement

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many companies have low liquidity since listing, with nearly half of companies having major shareholders with over 20% ownership. Raising listing criteria should considered to improve quality of the market.
  • TSE seems to raise the listing criteria for Growth Market in 2025, when the transitional measures expire, but for Prime Market, TSE is likely to respond with a “request.”
  • Although TSE’s “request” may be the catalyst for increasing MBOs and dissolution of parent-subsidiary listings, engagement with overseas investors over years to resolve management issues was foundation of this trend.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): South Korean REITs May Have Bottomed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • South Korean REITs May Have Bottomed
  • Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Mixed After Fed
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:300274 SZ/601012 CH/1810 HK /XPEV US/LI US/300750 SZ/1211 HK/BZ US/Huawei
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:TCOM US/ATAT US/METAUS/MSFTUS /GOOGLUS /SNAPUS/3690HK/NTESUS/SHEINUS
  • Earnings Week of April 26th


South Korean REITs May Have Bottomed

By Douglas Kim

  • There are signs that the South Korean REIT market may have bottomed in the past 3-6 months after significant market underperformance from 2021 to 4Q 2023.
  • The 16 major Korean REIT stocks are up on average 5% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is up 1.4% in the same period.
  • Differential in REIT dividend yield/Korean bond yield, meaningful discount to NAV, and increased capital allocation from Corporate Value Up program have been driving outperformance of Korean REIT stocks this year.

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Mixed After Fed

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments eased concerns over potential rate hikes amidst inflation worries
  • Profits rise at over two-thirds of major Japanese public companies for the fiscal year ending in March, attributed to factors like a weak yen, price hikes, and a tourism rebound.
  • Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cabinet maintains a 26% approval rating, while the disapproval rating rises to 69%

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300274 SZ/601012 CH/1810 HK /XPEV US/LI US/300750 SZ/1211 HK/BZ US/Huawei

By Eric Wen

  • 300274 SZ/601012 CH: A fire broke out in JinkoSolar’s Shanxi factory may benefit the entire supply chain.(///)
  • 1810 HK /XPEV US/LI US : Tesla passed all 4 national automotive data security requirements, Musk made a surprise visit to China and was received by Li Qiang (/////)
  • 1810 HK: Pony.ai formed JV with Toyota to prepare for robotaxi(/)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:TCOM US/ATAT US/METAUS/MSFTUS /GOOGLUS /SNAPUS/3690HK/NTESUS/SHEINUS

By Ying Pan

  • TCOM US/ATAT US: The increase in rainfall will negatively impact travels during the Labor Day holiday.(-/-)
  • META US/MSFT US /GOOGL US /SNAP US: The application of AI in advertising on short video and social platforms may result in greater efficiency than search advertising.(///////)
  • 3690 HK: Meituan plans to expand into the Middle East Riyadh via KeeTa.(-)

Earnings Week of April 26th

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.

  • Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.

  • Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.

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Daily Brief ECM: Pre-IPO Ximalaya – The Potential Risks and the Outlook and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Pre-IPO Ximalaya – The Potential Risks and the Outlook
  • China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Remains a Minnow in Other Markets


Pre-IPO Ximalaya – The Potential Risks and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The key to Ximalaya turning losses into profits is not the outstanding performance in revenue side, but rather the effective cost control. The Company seems to have encountered growth bottleneck.
  • To achieve long-term stable profits, it’s necessary to continuously optimize content quality, improve user experience, and expand paying user scale, but Ximalaya has shown “signs of fatigue” in this regard. 
  • AI technology brings big room for imagination, but the question here is how much would truly translate into a leap in financial performance? Ximalaya’s valuation could be lower than peers.

China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Remains a Minnow in Other Markets

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Resources Beverage is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Melco Resorts and Entertainment (Philippines)


Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Melco Resorts and Entertainment (Philippines)

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: AMD. It’s A Marathon and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • AMD. It’s A Marathon, Not A Sprint
  • Amazon 1Q’24 Update
  • Peptidream (4587 JP): Steadily Riding the Next Wave of Drug Discovery
  • Spectur Ltd – Strong YTD growth, capital raised to repay debt
  • TRS: Packing an Earnings Rebound
  • Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: 1Q Preview: Building for the Future; Reiterate Buy, Price Target
  • Saigon Cargo Services (SCS VN): Good Q1 2024 in the Bag, More Catalyst To Come
  • Esker – Targeting margin recovery in FY24
  • Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): On track
  • MotorK – Strong pipeline and cash target reaffirmed


AMD. It’s A Marathon, Not A Sprint

By William Keating

  • Q124 revenues of $5.5 billion, $100 million above the guided midpoint, down 11% QoQ but up 2% YoY.
  • Looking ahead, AMD forecasted the current quarter revenues of $5.7 billion, up 3.6% sequentially.
  • Share price down 7% in AH and down 35% from its recent 52 week high. We could see it retest the $100 level in the coming months

Amazon 1Q’24 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • Now that Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon all reported their quarters, we now have better context to how their quarters went.
  • So, while I will mostly discuss Amazon’s earnings in this update, I will briefly touch on some broader themes as well.
  • Overall revenue was slightly below the high end of Amazon’s guidance.

Peptidream (4587 JP): Steadily Riding the Next Wave of Drug Discovery

By Tina Banerjee

  • Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) has obtained first-in-human imaging studies approval for its first in-house peptide radiopharmaceutical therapeutic program, PD-32766 targeting patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma.
  • Novartis (NOVN SW) has expanded peptide discovery collaboration with Peptidream. The expanded partnership could bring up to $2.7B in milestone payments plus royalties to Peptidream.
  • In 2023, Peptidream reported revenue of ¥29B, up 7% YoY, with radiopharmaceutical revenue growing 40% YoY to ¥16B. For 2024, the company guided for revenue of ¥35B, up 22% YoY.  

Spectur Ltd – Strong YTD growth, capital raised to repay debt

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Spectur Limited (ASX:SP3) is a surveillance technology company providing security, safety, environmental monitoring and visual AI solutions to watch and act on assets managed by its platform.
  • The company develops, manufactures and sells solar- and battery-powered, remotely-connected hardware, which is driven by SP3’s firmware, software, cloud and web-apps, providing data and solutions to its customers.
  • Spectur has reported a 35% increase in Q3 sales revenue to $1.261m on the previous corresponding period (pcp) (ASX release 26 April).

TRS: Packing an Earnings Rebound

By Hamed Khorsand

  • TRS reported first quarter results confirming a turnaround in the packaging segment could be underway
  • Packaging is TRS’s largest business segment and had undergone a restructuring last year. The increase in sales has done little to impress investors
  • TRS reported first quarter sales of $227.1 million compared to our estimate of $216.2 million. The biggest driver for the outperformance was the packaging segment

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: 1Q Preview: Building for the Future; Reiterate Buy, Price Target

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for a.k.a. Brands with the company announcing 1Q24 (March) results after the close on Wednesday.
  • We believe 1Q will be another period of rebuilding momentum and credibility, with the cleanup continuing at Culture Kings, Princess Polly adding new retail stores to the mix and rolling out new categories to become even more of a lifestyle brand and Petal & Pup leveraging new digital marketplace relationships and continued dress-driven expansion.
  • Further, we believe management remains laser focused on reducing both inventory exposure and net debt.

Saigon Cargo Services (SCS VN): Good Q1 2024 in the Bag, More Catalyst To Come

By Sameer Taneja


Esker – Targeting margin recovery in FY24

By Edison Investment Research

Esker reported FY23 results in line with our expectations. Revenue grew 12% (14% constant currency) while inflationary effects and sales commissions on bookings outperformance in H223 resulted in operating profit declining 16% y-o-y. The high level of contracts signed towards the end of FY23 provide good support for revenue growth in FY24 and FY25 and measures taken by management to improve productivity should drive margin expansion over our forecast period back into the company’s target range of 12–15%.


Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): On track

By Auctus Advisors

  • • The work-over programme has started with the first two work-overs having added a total of ~40 bbl/d.
  • The third work-over was not completed as damaged equipment was encountered downhole.
  • • The second tranche of work-overs will start in May.

MotorK – Strong pipeline and cash target reaffirmed

By Edison Investment Research

MotorK’s FY23 revenue growth was robust across most regions, with slow growth regions gaining momentum. Q124 revenue fell slightly year-on-year due to delayed delivery contracts, but these are expected to contribute to Q2 sales. Revenue quality improved, with software-as-a-service (SaaS) recurring revenue rising as a share of group revenue in FY23. M&A continues to play a pivotal role in unlocking opportunities across MotorK’s markets, providing potential average contract value (ACV) expansion from customers migrating to the platform. While personnel investments for growth swung EBITDA to a loss, MotorK’s holistic SparK platform remains well-positioned to capitalise on the automotive industry’s digital shift and technological innovation.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: JR West (9021 JP) – Shareholder Structure Means Large-Ish Buyback Could Have Impact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • JR West (9021 JP) – Shareholder Structure Means Large-Ish Buyback Could Have Impact
  • Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April’24 Report
  • AZ-Com Maruwa Launches Hostile TOB on Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) – Expect More Fun To Come
  • Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): AZ-COM Maruwa Calls the Board’s Bluff, Launches the Offer
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Changes Possible as Review Period Ends
  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 5-6 Changes Possible from Now to June
  • The Bigger Picture As Aussie Government “Approves’ Hanwha Ocean’s Austal Bid


JR West (9021 JP) – Shareholder Structure Means Large-Ish Buyback Could Have Impact

By Travis Lundy


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April’24 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.1% (vs. 47.3%); GBL, 39% (vs. 38.1%); Heineken Holding, 17.3% (vs 16.7%); 
  • Industrivärden C, 4.7% (vs. 1.4%); Investor B, 8.3% (vs. 6.1%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 41.1% (vs. 45.4%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.5% (vs. to 24.9%).
  • What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

AZ-Com Maruwa Launches Hostile TOB on Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) – Expect More Fun To Come

By Travis Lundy

  • Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) had been sending out questions, and trying to get AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) to delay the start until at least late-May.
  • AZ-Com Maruwa answered questions (first and second set) and on the 24th, C&F asked AZ-Com to extend. They did not extend. AZ-Com announced the Tender Offer at ¥3,000 today.
  • C&F responded today saying the TOB is launched without C&F Board approval. Then they said some other things that might be disclosed when C&F’s Board presents its Target Opinion.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): AZ-COM Maruwa Calls the Board’s Bluff, Launches the Offer

By Arun George

  • AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) has satisfied the precondition for its hostile Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) JPY3,000 offer. The offer closes on 17 June (31 business days).
  • AZ-COM Maruwa has called the Board’s bluff by providing sufficient time (extending the offer period from 20 to 31 business days) for a white knight to lob a competing bidder.
  • While a bump is probable, the shares already factor in a significant bumpitrage premium. A potential bump has a good chance of being lower than the last close.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Changes Possible as Review Period Ends

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, there could be up to 15 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
  • Even with 15 changes, there is some sector balance among the potential adds and deletes with big churn in the Information Technology sector.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) since the start of the review period but performance has flattened over the last month.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 5-6 Changes Possible from Now to June

By Brian Freitas


The Bigger Picture As Aussie Government “Approves’ Hanwha Ocean’s Austal Bid

By David Blennerhassett

  • Recently, I surmised FIRB would approve Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)/Hancock’s bid for Azure (AZS AU); but ding Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)s Austal (ASB AU) tilt. I’m batting 50%. 
  • Whereas FIRB gave the green light for Azure this week; reportedly (no official ASX announcement as yet), the Aussie government is “not concerned” with Hanwha’s acquisition. Austal gained 3% yesterday.
  • Even Austal didn’t high hopes of securing Aussie approval. Presumably the US government is similarly onboard. This development also signals an expanding AUKUS security pact. 

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Most Read: IDP Education, CJ Cheiljedang, West Japan Railway Co, Krafton , L’Occitane, Rio Tinto Ltd, Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings, Jeju Semiconductor, Hanmi Semiconductor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – Historical Analysis and A Trade Basket
  • Leading Candidates for the First Value-Up Disclosure
  • JR West (9021 JP) – Shareholder Structure Means Large-Ish Buyback Could Have Impact
  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Mar and Apr 2024)
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, April 2024: Austal, L’Occitane, Langham Hosp., Jastec, Mimasu, Best World, Isetan
  • Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April’24 Report
  • AZ-Com Maruwa Launches Hostile TOB on Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) – Expect More Fun To Come
  • Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): AZ-COM Maruwa Calls the Board’s Bluff, Launches the Offer
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Changes Possible as Review Period Ends
  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 5-6 Changes Possible from Now to June


Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – Historical Analysis and A Trade Basket

By Travis Lundy

  • I am not a tax advisor and I do not play one on TV but it is a subject of interest in Australia, as an AFR article from June 2022 shows.
  • The general gist: retail investors in Australia will take gains on stocks which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses to offset.
  • Below I present a study using data from 2012-2023 and this year’s portfolio.

Leading Candidates for the First Value-Up Disclosure

By Sanghyun Park

  • Of utmost importance in these guidelines will be the framework for Value-up disclosure. Local authorities aim to encourage proactive disclosure, starting with companies that are well-prepared.
  • Two companies are being closely watched as potential candidates for the first Value-up disclosure: CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS) and Koh Young Technology (098460 KS).
  • The rationale for us to actively engage in alpha trading with these two names stems from the strong probability that they will emerge as cornerstone constituents of the Value-up index

JR West (9021 JP) – Shareholder Structure Means Large-Ish Buyback Could Have Impact

By Travis Lundy


Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Mar and Apr 2024)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in March and April 2024.
  • We provide a list of 30 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in the past two months.
  • Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Krafton (259960 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), and Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).

(Mostly) Asia M&A, April 2024: Austal, L’Occitane, Langham Hosp., Jastec, Mimasu, Best World, Isetan

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of April 2024, 7 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~42%
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April’24 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.1% (vs. 47.3%); GBL, 39% (vs. 38.1%); Heineken Holding, 17.3% (vs 16.7%); 
  • Industrivärden C, 4.7% (vs. 1.4%); Investor B, 8.3% (vs. 6.1%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 41.1% (vs. 45.4%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.5% (vs. to 24.9%).
  • What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

AZ-Com Maruwa Launches Hostile TOB on Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) – Expect More Fun To Come

By Travis Lundy

  • Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) had been sending out questions, and trying to get AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) to delay the start until at least late-May.
  • AZ-Com Maruwa answered questions (first and second set) and on the 24th, C&F asked AZ-Com to extend. They did not extend. AZ-Com announced the Tender Offer at ¥3,000 today.
  • C&F responded today saying the TOB is launched without C&F Board approval. Then they said some other things that might be disclosed when C&F’s Board presents its Target Opinion.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): AZ-COM Maruwa Calls the Board’s Bluff, Launches the Offer

By Arun George

  • AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) has satisfied the precondition for its hostile Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) JPY3,000 offer. The offer closes on 17 June (31 business days).
  • AZ-COM Maruwa has called the Board’s bluff by providing sufficient time (extending the offer period from 20 to 31 business days) for a white knight to lob a competing bidder.
  • While a bump is probable, the shares already factor in a significant bumpitrage premium. A potential bump has a good chance of being lower than the last close.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Changes Possible as Review Period Ends

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, there could be up to 15 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
  • Even with 15 changes, there is some sector balance among the potential adds and deletes with big churn in the Information Technology sector.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) since the start of the review period but performance has flattened over the last month.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 5-6 Changes Possible from Now to June

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Macro: April Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • April Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review
  • Positioning Watch – Prepare for further action in JPY pairs
  • HEM: Molting Hawk Feathers


April Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

By Rikki Malik

  • A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
  • Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
  • Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio

Positioning Watch – Prepare for further action in JPY pairs

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning/sentiment overview!Equity sentiment has soured a bit since we last spoke, with broad US traded ETF fund flows sent back into solid negative territory after a stunning start to the year.
  • While most of it is due to the tax-season in April, the hawkish repricing of global central banks has also played its part in normalizing the über-bullish sentiment in US equities, with markets now also biting their nails as an ECB June cut is no longer a certainty.
  • Chart 1: Rolling monthly US ETF fund flowsAfter a couple of weeks of outflows from XLE, the reflation bet is back on track with around 500 mn.

HEM: Molting Hawk Feathers

By Phil Rush

  • The front end has been sufficiently flattened due to continuous rate cuts.
  • Despite the potential for limited cuts in the future, rate hikes are not anticipated.
  • There’s a possibility that market pricing could exceed expectations before adopting a dovish stance.

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