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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Softbank Group, Workiva Inc, Allegro MicroSystems , Vontier Corp, Credo Technology Group Holding, Power Integrations, Silicon Laboratories, Braze Inc, Soluna Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • [Q2 Earnings Preview] TSMC: All Eyes on 2nm Chips, Fab Expansion & Continued Earnings Beat
  • Softbank (9984 JP): Arm Headwinds Building, but NAV Discount Is Attractive
  • Workiva Inc.: Exploitation of Generative AI & Data Security Driving Our ‘Buy’ Rating! – Major Drivers
  • Allegro MicroSystems Inc.: Electric Vehicle and Hybrid Market Growth in China As A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers
  • Vontier Corporation: Strengthening Core Markets: Convenience Retail and Retail Fueling! – Major Drivers
  • Credo Tech Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) – Friday, Apr 12, 2024
  • Power Integrations Inc.: Can The Acquisition of Odyssey Semiconductor Technologies Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • Silicon Laboratories Inc.: Enhanced Direct Sales and Customer Relationships Boosting The Top-Line?
  • Braze Inc.: Leveraging Technological Advancements in AI and Personalization! – Major Drivers
  • Soluna Holdings, Inc. – Soluna Cloud Contract Unleashes New Business Line


[Q2 Earnings Preview] TSMC: All Eyes on 2nm Chips, Fab Expansion & Continued Earnings Beat

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • TSMC’s June 2024 revenue increased by 32.9% YoY, exceeding expectations with $6.42 billion. 
  • It dominates with >62% of the global foundry market share, propelled by AI demand. 
  • Expansion into the automotive market and new fabs in the U.S. and Japan highlight TSMC’s growth strategy. 

Softbank (9984 JP): Arm Headwinds Building, but NAV Discount Is Attractive

By Victor Galliano

  • Since Elliott Management emerged as a shareholder in SoftBank group last month, the share price has rallied sharply, largely driven by the further appreciation of the Arm Holding share price
  • SoftBank management is currently focused on growing its Gen AI investment portfolio and appears to have shelved share buybacks for now, which is likely to disappoint minority shareholders
  • Despite the above challenges and the risk of de-rating at Arm, we remain positive on Softbank shares as they trade at a historically high 54%+ discount to the estimated NAV

Workiva Inc.: Exploitation of Generative AI & Data Security Driving Our ‘Buy’ Rating! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Workiva’s financial results for the first quarter of 2024 showcased a generally positive trend with several robust aspects in growth and operating metrics, countered by a cautiously optimistic outlook for the rest of the year.
  • The company reported a 17% increase in total revenue and a 20% rise in subscription revenue compared to the same period in the previous year, underscoring a resilient performance in the face of an uncertain economic environment.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Allegro MicroSystems Inc.: Electric Vehicle and Hybrid Market Growth in China As A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Allegro MicroSystems has recently reported their fiscal fourth quarter and full year 2024 results, providing insights into their financial health and future expectations.
  • The company managed to surpass its fourth-quarter revenue and earnings per share (EPS) guidance despite facing a challenging macroeconomic environment, highlighting the dedication and efficiency of its team.
  • The fiscal year 2024 demonstrated a revenue growth of 8% and an EPS growth of 5%, with notable growth in e-Mobility at 38%, signifying strong market performance and strategic execution.

Vontier Corporation: Strengthening Core Markets: Convenience Retail and Retail Fueling! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Vontier, a prominent player in the mobility infrastructure and technology space, delivered strong performance in the first quarter of 2024, achieving the upper bounds of its core growth guidance while surpassing its profitability targets.
  • The company reported a 4% increase in core sales, fueled primarily by volume growth alongside positive pricing impacts.
  • Notably, the company achieved a 130 basis point expansion in margins, demonstrating effective execution and financial discipline.

Credo Tech Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) – Friday, Apr 12, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Credo’s shares have surged over 180% since NVDA’s AI earnings report in May 2023
  • Despite being seen as an AI “winner,” Credo’s active electrical cable is losing market position due to networking bottlenecks in data centers
  • The upcoming 800G infrastructure ramp could provide opportunities for advanced interconnects, but Credo’s shares are currently priced to perfection

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Power Integrations Inc.: Can The Acquisition of Odyssey Semiconductor Technologies Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Power Integrations reported a robust set of financial results for the first quarter, demonstrating resilience and strategic foresight in the face of fluctuating market conditions.
  • The company’s revenue for the quarter amounted to $92 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 53% and non-GAAP earnings standing at $0.18 per share.
  • These figures reflect a stable financial status, attuned to Power Integrations’ strategic market maneuvers and operational efficiency.

Silicon Laboratories Inc.: Enhanced Direct Sales and Customer Relationships Boosting The Top-Line?

By Baptista Research

  • Silicon Labs’ first quarter fiscal 2024 financial results provide a mixed picture, reflecting the ongoing dynamics in the technology sector, particularly in the semiconductor industry.
  • Silicon Labs reported a revenue of $106 million for the quarter, which exceeded the midpoint of the company’s guidance and marked a 23% sequential increase.
  • This performance underscores some level of recovery, especially when dissected into the contributions from its two primary business units: Industrial & Commercial, and Home & Life.

Braze Inc.: Leveraging Technological Advancements in AI and Personalization! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Braze, a customer engagement platform, has documented its performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, which indicates mixed outcomes amidst challenging economic conditions.
  • Braze reported a revenue of $135.5 million, reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase.
  • When adjusted for a $750,000 hiccup due to a service outage in April, the revenue would have been about $136.3 million.

Soluna Holdings, Inc. – Soluna Cloud Contract Unleashes New Business Line

By Water Tower Research

  • Soluna Cloud has entered into a three-year managed services agreement with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), with $38-80 million in expected revenue over the contract, with the first 512 GPUs available today.
  • Soluna will manage a hydro-powered datacenter in collaboration with its strategic OEM partner and has secured NVIDIA H100 GPUs that will allow it to offer Generative AI workloads for enterprise customers and Generative AI labs.
  • The Soluna Cloud subsidiary has been funded by a non-dilutive $12.5 million credit facility, which the company expects will be the first tranche of funding for the growing business line.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Doosan Bobcat Inc, Hesai Group, Deutsche Lufthansa , On Assignment, Sensata Technologies Holding P, Shin Pro Maint and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?
  • Will Hesai Group Announce Its First-Ever Buyback To Restore Confidence in the Stock?
  • Lufthansa Group – Revisiting Margin and Portfolio Management Challenges
  • ASGN Incorporated: AI and Cloud Data Structuring Project Demand Fueling Its Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Sensata Technologies: What Are Its Industrial Dynamics and New Product Launches? – Major Drivers
  • Shin Pro Maint (6086 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update


Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 11 July, the Doosan Group announced a major business structure reorganization, including the delisting of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).
  • In our view (over the next 3-6 months), these transactions appear to be value-destroying for Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Enerbility minority shareholders but positive for Doosan Robotics shareholders.
  • Doosan Robotics plans to acquire the remaining 54% stake in Doosan Bobcat through a tender offer. Once Doosan Robotics fully owns Doosan Bobcat, its shares will be delisted.

Will Hesai Group Announce Its First-Ever Buyback To Restore Confidence in the Stock?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Hesai Group shares significantly underperformed in 2024 with shares down ~47% over the year versus a ~23% gain on the Nasdaq Composite.
  • Moreover, a San Francisco-based Ouster, one of the key competitors among LiDAR makers, outperformed Hesai Group and the NASDAQ on a year-to-date basis.
  • I believe Hesai Group should initiate a share buyback program as RoboSense has recently announced on-market share repurchase plan to create value for its shareholders.  

Lufthansa Group – Revisiting Margin and Portfolio Management Challenges

By Neil Glynn

  • Lufthansa mainline losses in 2024 force management to pursue transformation
  • ​Portfolio management challenges driven by a variety of factors including LH mainline unit costs and pricing at sister companies
  • Much work to do to turn ITA around, while firm management focus is required at home

ASGN Incorporated: AI and Cloud Data Structuring Project Demand Fueling Its Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ASGN Inc. delivered a robust set of results for the first quarter of 2024, demonstrating solid growth in certain areas despite challenges in others.
  • With revenue of $1.05 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $10.3 million, both metrics approached the upper end of the company’s guidance, underscoring management’s effective operational execution and strategic foresight.
  • The company’s diverse portfolio, balancing commercial and government segments, has provided a buffer against the cyclical nature of IT spending, particularly amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Sensata Technologies: What Are Its Industrial Dynamics and New Product Launches? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sensata Technologies has reported a solid performance in the first quarter of 2024, reflecting both advances and challenges within its diverse portfolio.
  • This review aims to provide an impartial analysis of Sensata’s recent financial results and strategic engagements as disclosed in their latest financial disclosures.
  • Beginning with the financial metrics, Sensata Technologies recorded a slight revenue increase from $998 million in Q1 2023 to $1.007 billion in Q1 2024, representing a modest year-over-year growth of 1%.

Shin Pro Maint (6086 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 13.4% YoY to JPY5.8bn, driven by new customers and expanded maintenance services for existing customers.
  • Operating profit rose by 32.3% YoY to JPY342mn, with an OPM up 0.8pp YoY to 5.9%.
  • Gross profit reached JPY1.3bn (+12.8% YoY), with a GPM of 22.6% (-0.1pp YoY), and SG&A expenses were JPY960mn (+7.1% YoY).

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Daily Brief Health Care: Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical, Catalent Inc, PharmChem Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Cutting-Edge Drugmaker Biokin Taps Hong Kong Market to Fund Foray Aboard
  • Catalent Inc.: Gene Therapy Advancements Indicate A Bright Future Ahead? – Major Drivers
  • Pharmchem Inc. (PCHM) – Thursday, Apr 11, 2024


Cutting-Edge Drugmaker Biokin Taps Hong Kong Market to Fund Foray Aboard

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese innovative drugmaker Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. has filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering (IPO) in an effort to tap fresh funding to support new drug development and overseas expansion.
  • Biokin, already listed in Shanghai, did not disclose the target size of its Hong Kong offering. According to its preliminary prospectus, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Citic Securities Co. Ltd. are joint sponsors for the share sale.
  • Founded in 1996, Biokin began as a producer of chemical generic drugs and proprietary Chinese medicines. The company has since 2011 moved on to novel biological drugs, focusing on antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) for cancer treatment.

Catalent Inc.: Gene Therapy Advancements Indicate A Bright Future Ahead? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Catalent, a global leader in providing development, manufacturing, and delivery technologies for drugs and biologics, has exhibited both solid performance and areas of challenge in their preliminary financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024.
  • The company has reaffirmed its full-year guidance, despite the persisting headwinds in various markets which the management team addressed through operational effectiveness and strategic reviews.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Pharmchem Inc. (PCHM) – Thursday, Apr 11, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • PharmChem Inc. specializes in sweat-based drug testing for criminal justice customers
  • Faced challenges in 2021 and 2022 but has since recovered sales and announced plans for growth in 2024
  • Analysts predict stock price to rise from $2.91 to over $4 this year as investors re-evaluate company’s prospects

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Financials: Revolut Limited, Ethereum, Lippo Karawaci, Bitcoin Pro, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Bolsa Mexicana De Valores Sab and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers
  • Crypto Portfolio: Adding Ethereum Alpha with ETF Launch and Institutional Onchain Adoption
  • Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci
  • The Dark Night Rises – Part 1
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Sell-Off Could Accelerate This Week, But It’s A BUY
  • BOLSAA MM – Actinver MX Local Flavor: Local stock market records weekly advance of 5%


Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers

By Victor Galliano

  • Management is targeting a USD40bn IPO valuation for Revolut; the last funding round in 2021 valued it at USD33bn, but current year investor valuations have ranged from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn
  • We provide key fintech and bank ratios for the UK digital banks; Revolut is more an FX paytech with a small loan book; Starling is a more “balanced” digital bank
  • Relative to its UK unlisted peers and select listed digital peers, Revolut’s target IPO valuation does appear to be rich; it is also still seeking a UK bank licence

Crypto Portfolio: Adding Ethereum Alpha with ETF Launch and Institutional Onchain Adoption

By Mads Eberhardt

  • There is no Crypto Moves today.
  • Instead, today’s note marks our first trade for our Crypto Portfolio, along with the rationale behind this decision.
  • This trade aims to indirectly benefit from the imminent launch of U.S.-based Ethereum ETFs, without directly increasing our Ethereum exposure.

Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


The Dark Night Rises – Part 1

By Delphi Digital

  • Navigating a challenging macro environment with conflicting signals on Fed policy and inflation risks.
  • Global liquidity contractions impact BTC, but future easing could spark a market revival.
  • Crypto markets face headwinds, yet long-term growth potential and institutional adoption remain strong.

EQD | KOSPI 200 Sell-Off Could Accelerate This Week, But It’s A BUY

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX started a modest pullback and is entering a BUY area, but it could fall further this coming week, caution is advised.
  • The support levels to buy are between 383-371, this coming week.
  • Alternatively buy the Close, if the WEEKLY Close is negative, next Friday.

BOLSAA MM – Actinver MX Local Flavor: Local stock market records weekly advance of 5%

By Actinver

  • After five days of increases in the quotes of its primary indices, the local market ends the week on a high note.
  • On the one hand, the IPC climbs 5.01%, marking its best weekly performance since last December.
  • In contrast, the FTSE BIVA indicated a 4.87% rise.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Daidoh Ltd, ASICS Corp, Kobe Bussan, Delfi Ltd, DPC Dash, Rino Mastrotto Group S.P.A, Choice Hotels Intl, KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activists Sell ALL Their Daidoh (3205) In One Day. Oops 😬
  • HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking
  • ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering
  • Kobe Bussan (3038): The Final Cliff
  • Delfi Ltd (DELFI SP) – The Chameleon of Confectionary
  • DPC Dash (1405 HK): Strong 2Q Data Pointing to Underappreciated Growth and Margin Potential
  • ASICS (7936) | Obadele Thompson or Usain Bolt?
  • Rino Mastrotto – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Choice Hotels International: Geographic Expansion & Scaling In Order To Amplify Growth!
  • Time To Look Abroad?


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activists Sell ALL Their Daidoh (3205) In One Day. Oops 😬

By Travis Lundy

  • Daidoh Ltd (3205 JP) saw an activist “win” at its AGM, another activist bought, the stock popped. I wrote about it. 2hrs later, the Board set a new Div Policy.
  • ¥100/Yr for 3 years in a row. That was 11% of then-current price. Big activist win for Strategic Capital which owned 25% and Murakami-san who had gone substantial 1wk earlier.
  • Today post-close, Strategic Capital reported it sold everything on 5 July, the next day. WOW. That was half of Maximum Real World Float. Oops. Murakami-san sold too. 

HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, ASICS Corp (7936 JP) announced a very large secondary offering. It points out that as a global brand, it needs global-standard corporate governance. 
  • As such, it says they’ve been discussing sales with crossholders. But we knew the cross-holders were going to sell. This offering is 85mm shares, ¥210bn at last. That’s big. 
  • The stock has doubled year-to-date. Today they raised FY guidance BIGLY (+60% OP and NP). Now a huge offering. This seems like a “feed the ducks when they’re quacking” situation.

ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 85.0 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY218 billion (US$1.4 billion).
  • Asics’ goal with the secondary offering is to eliminate cross-shareholdings. Asics also announced a material upgrade to full-year forecasts to offset the impact of the offering.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 23 and 26 July (likely 23 July).

Kobe Bussan (3038): The Final Cliff

By Michael Allen

  • Kobe Bussan continues to hit new lows relative to the median Japanese retailer, as cheaper alternatives continue to rebound.
  • Kobe was one of the greatest beneficiaries in Japan of the Pandemic, but it is stuck at 10% growth which is no longer unusual. 
  • Kobe’s wholesale model makes it difficult to benefit from food price inflation like other food retailers. Kobe Bussan could drop another 50% before reaching fair value.

Delfi Ltd (DELFI SP) – The Chameleon of Confectionary

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Delfi Ltd (DELFI SP) is Asia’s largest confectioner, with circa 50% market share of chocolate in its largest market Indonesia, despite competition from global confectionary players over many years. 
  • The company produces products that are engrained in local tastes but it also produces products in different categories that compete directly with foreign competitors with a local twist. 
  • The negative headwinds from higher cocoa prices have started to stabilise and Delfi has deployed various strategies to offset the impact on packaging and ingredients. 

DPC Dash (1405 HK): Strong 2Q Data Pointing to Underappreciated Growth and Margin Potential

By Eric Chen

  • The company’ share bucked China catering sector’s down trend and rallied 30% in last few weeks.
  • Its 2Q operating data suggest that its store opening is well on track with healthy SSSG, underpinning strong margin expansion.
  • We believe that market still underestimates its growth and earnings potential which could beat consensus by wide margin. Interim results to be announced in August will be key catalyst.

ASICS (7936) | Obadele Thompson or Usain Bolt?

By Mark Chadwick

  • ASICS is revising up its full year forecasts, now expecting sales to reach a record ¥660 billion , up 15.7% year-over-year. There is a strong currency tail wind. 
  • Still “you gotta be in it to win it..”  ASICS is currently crushing it, while Nike flounders
  • A large secondary offering will likely hit the share price in the short term; there are two key risks…but it could be a good opportunity to buy. 

Rino Mastrotto – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Rino Mastrotto’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Governance scores, while the Social score is “Strong”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. 


Choice Hotels International: Geographic Expansion & Scaling In Order To Amplify Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Choice Hotels International Inc. showed a largely positive outcome in its first quarter of 2024 financial results, demonstrating solid growth trajectories in various aspects of its business.
  • The company reported an impressive 17% increase in adjusted EBITDA and a 14% increase in adjusted EPS on a year-over-year basis, achieving record levels for the first quarter.
  • This growth was partly fueled by the successful integration of the Radisson Americas, which has substantially broadened the company’s scale and diversified its earnings streams through new non-RevPAR-related avenues.

Time To Look Abroad?

By Douglas Busch

  • US markets suffered a bearish reversal on CPI data. Time look to elsewhere?
  • China looks to be bottoming. Could the region begin to show relative strength?
  • Emerging markets look particularly attractive especially if the dollar trades lower.

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Most Read: Ryohin Keikaku, Fast Retailing, Doosan Robotics , Keisei Electric Railway Co, Daidoh Ltd, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Pacific Smiles, ASICS Corp, Doosan Bobcat Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is
  • Fast Retailing (9983) – Great (Bte) Earnings Now Out of The Way; Anticipating End-July Capping Data
  • Details of Two Doosan Mergers Involving Enerbility, Robotics, & Bobcat
  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) AGM Result Not Salutary, Tough To Win On This Stance
  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activists Sell ALL Their Daidoh (3205) In One Day. Oops 😬
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Dilemma as the Scrip Pre-Condition Met and a Substantial Shareholder Emerges
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Here Comes The Scrip Option
  • Pacific Smiles’ (PSQ AU) Scheme Vote: Say “aaaarrrghhhh”?!
  • HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking
  • Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is

By Travis Lundy


Fast Retailing (9983) – Great (Bte) Earnings Now Out of The Way; Anticipating End-July Capping Data

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday after the close, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) reported salutary Q3 earnings, and raised its full-year (to August) guidance and its final dividend forecast (by ¥50/share)
  • Q3 revenue and profit gained sharply (Rev +13.5%, OP +31.2%) everywhere but Greater China. OPMs were up, especially in Japan. Early summer has been good, despite FX impact. 
  • New guidance is above consensus, the ADR popped, and with slightly stronger yen on US CPI, that should help. But we approach end-July. Expect lots of pop-sellers.

Details of Two Doosan Mergers Involving Enerbility, Robotics, & Bobcat

By Sanghyun Park

  • The restructuring plan of Doosan Group announced today primarily consists of two merger events aimed at transferring the stake in Doosan Bobcat held by Doosan Enerbility to Doosan Robotics.
  • The 50% price cut on Doosan Enerbility’s share price for merging with Doosan Robotics boosts Robotics’ advantage. This resulted in a swap spread opening with Doosan Bobcat.
  • Considering an arbitrage strategy in the Doosan Robotics and Doosan Bobcat swap needs caution due to shareholder approval risks, especially with Doosan Enerbility’s low controlling stake potentially complicating the process.

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) AGM Result Not Salutary, Tough To Win On This Stance

By Travis Lundy

  • A week ago, the Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) AGM took place. The activist which had proposed a shareholder resolution saw ISS and Glass Lewis support.
  • But that was to no avail as the shareholder proposal got 29.89% of the votes, and 26.15% of total voting rights. This likely informs the near-term future of such proposals.
  • I expect the ask needs to change, and the agenda item needs to be difficult to be against. 

JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activists Sell ALL Their Daidoh (3205) In One Day. Oops 😬

By Travis Lundy

  • Daidoh Ltd (3205 JP) saw an activist “win” at its AGM, another activist bought, the stock popped. I wrote about it. 2hrs later, the Board set a new Div Policy.
  • ¥100/Yr for 3 years in a row. That was 11% of then-current price. Big activist win for Strategic Capital which owned 25% and Murakami-san who had gone substantial 1wk earlier.
  • Today post-close, Strategic Capital reported it sold everything on 5 July, the next day. WOW. That was half of Maximum Real World Float. Oops. Murakami-san sold too. 

Henlius (2696 HK): Dilemma as the Scrip Pre-Condition Met and a Substantial Shareholder Emerges

By Arun George

  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) announced that the share alternative pre-condition was satisfied. However, the share alternative offer remains at Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s discretion. 
  • Loyal Valley Capital (LVC), a pre-IPO investor, emerged as a substantial shareholder on 10 July, the deadline for submitting letters of interest for the share alternative offer.
  • The likely scenario is that the offer succeeds as the co-founders enter rollover arrangements, and a share alternative is introduced, which is taken by QIA and LVC. 

Henlius (2696 HK): Here Comes The Scrip Option

By David Blennerhassett


Pacific Smiles’ (PSQ AU) Scheme Vote: Say “aaaarrrghhhh”?!

By David Blennerhassett

  • After what appeared indecisiveness from Genesis Capital, Crescent Capital’s National Dental Care snuck in on the 29th April and entered into a Scheme with Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU) at A$1.90/share. 
  • The Scheme Meeting is the 1st August with expected implementation on the 19th August. The IE (Deloitte) reckoned terms are fair & reasonable. All good right? Not quite.
  • The Takeovers Panel has concluded Genesis Capital, with 19.9% of shares out, is free to vote. Assuming Genesis votes against the Scheme, Crescent Capital’s Offer is effectively dead.

HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, ASICS Corp (7936 JP) announced a very large secondary offering. It points out that as a global brand, it needs global-standard corporate governance. 
  • As such, it says they’ve been discussing sales with crossholders. But we knew the cross-holders were going to sell. This offering is 85mm shares, ¥210bn at last. That’s big. 
  • The stock has doubled year-to-date. Today they raised FY guidance BIGLY (+60% OP and NP). Now a huge offering. This seems like a “feed the ducks when they’re quacking” situation.

Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 11 July, the Doosan Group announced a major business structure reorganization, including the delisting of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).
  • In our view (over the next 3-6 months), these transactions appear to be value-destroying for Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Enerbility minority shareholders but positive for Doosan Robotics shareholders.
  • Doosan Robotics plans to acquire the remaining 54% stake in Doosan Bobcat through a tender offer. Once Doosan Robotics fully owns Doosan Bobcat, its shares will be delisted.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 5th): New Hope and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 5th): New Hope, Macquarie, Guzman Y Gomez
  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 12th): Tencent, Meituan, Aia


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 5th): New Hope, Macquarie, Guzman Y Gomez

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 5th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.1bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in New Hope, Macquarie, Guzman Y Gomez.

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 12th): Tencent, Meituan, Aia

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 12th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).

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Daily Brief ESG: Adopting DOE Is Step Forward and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Adopting DOE Is Step Forward, but Explanation Needed to Step into Strategic Allocation of Cash Flow
  • CMA CGM – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Adopting DOE Is Step Forward, but Explanation Needed to Step into Strategic Allocation of Cash Flow

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since non-cash expenses are added to net profit for many manufacturing companies, cash on hand will not decrease at all if the dividend policy is based on net profit.
  • Using DOE as the basis for dividend policy would help improve ROE because it places certain constraints on the expansion of shareholders’ equity.
  • However, the challenge for raising ROE is the strategic allocation of excess cash on hand and cash flow to shareholder returns and growth investments to improve profitability.

CMA CGM – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess CMA CGM’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Governance pillars, while the Social pillar is “Strong”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. The group notably received a CDP score of A- for 2023.


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Daily Brief ECM: Avanse Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth in an Expanding Industry and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Avanse Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth in an Expanding Industry
  • Saint Bella Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Junjin Construction and Robot IPO Preview
  • Avanse Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Immigration Issues


Avanse Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth in an Expanding Industry

By Sumeet Singh

  • Avanse Financial Services is looking to raise up to US$419m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Avanse Financial Services (AFS) is an education focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) operating in India.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Saint Bella Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Saint Bella (SAINT HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by UBS and Citic Securities.
  • Saint Bella (SB) is a comprehensive family care group in China, focusing on premium services and products that addresses demand from the lifestyle-minded younger generation. 
  • It is the largest postpartum care and recovery group in terms of revenue from ultra-premium postpartum centers in 2023, according to F&S.

Junjin Construction and Robot IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Junjin Construction & Robot is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in August. The IPO price range is from 13,800 won to 15,700 won. 
  • The IPO offering is from 42.5 billion won to 48.3 billion won. The book building for the institutional investors is from 30 July to 5 August. 
  • The integration of robotics into construction processes is a cornerstone of Junjin’s operations. Its main product is the concrete pump vehicle which pumps cement or concrete at a construction site.

Avanse Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Immigration Issues

By Sumeet Singh

  • Avanse Financial Services is looking to raise up to US$419m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Avanse Financial Services (AFS) is an education focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) operating in India.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report- Indian Power at Peak: Value Chain Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report- Indian Power at Peak: Value Chain Stocks
  • Ohayo Japan | Major Market Reversal
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/META/700 HK/NTES/BIDU/3690 HK/JD/DADA/DDL/002024 CH/SHEIN/BABA
  • US Banks – Weekly US Bankruptcies Rising, US Consumer Defaults More Risk to Large Banks
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK/MNSO US/3690 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/700 HK
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | July 4-11, 2024


Thematic Report- Indian Power at Peak: Value Chain Stocks

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • In Real-time market (RTM) Power volumes surged by 20% in June, reflecting the need for immediate power delivery during sudden high-demand periods.
  • Indian Govt has extended the blending period of imported coal to Jun-24 to meet the rising demand. 
  • Rising Power demand will create a lot more opportunity across value chain including transformers, cables, smart meters etc.

Ohayo Japan | Major Market Reversal

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks fell on Thursday as tech investors reacted to a key inflation report showing a surprising monthly decline in consumer prices
  • The yen surged over 2% against the dollar following the US inflation report and speculation of Japanese market intervention
  • Fast Retailing, owner of Uniqlo, reported a net profit of 116.9 billion yen ($720 million) for the quarter ending in May, a 37.4% increase

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/META/700 HK/NTES/BIDU/3690 HK/JD/DADA/DDL/002024 CH/SHEIN/BABA

By Ying Pan

  • PDD US/META US: Temu continues to be the most downloaded app in the US (+)
  • PDD US : PDD launching new ad-tool to replace previous tools (+)
  • 700 HK: Tencent’s Third-Person Shooter Game <Synced> Announces Termination of Service on September 9th (-)

US Banks – Weekly US Bankruptcies Rising, US Consumer Defaults More Risk to Large Banks

By Daniel Tabbush

  • HFD on US bankruptcy filings suggest more stresses to come from consumer card loans
  • US large banks are more exposed to consumer card loans, but small banks have more CRE
  • Even where many are seeing far higher charge-offs and impairment costs, HFD suggests these will rise more, and historical peaks, are also far higher

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK/MNSO US/3690 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/700 HK

By Eric Wen

  • LKNCY US: Luckin Coffee Opens Its 20,000th Store . (+)
  • 1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK:July holiday saw normal seasonliaty in EV sales, Xiaomi ramp up nicely(///////)
  • XPEV US: Details of new refreshed Xpeng sedan P7 revealed (+)

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | July 4-11, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

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