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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Toppan Printing, Innospace, SCREEN Holdings, Breton Technology, CBAK Energy Technology , Verisk Analytics, Virco Mfg. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toppan Printing (7911) Accelerates Buyback Pace and Amount; But Crossholder Sales Lurk
  • Innospace IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Guiding for Lower Profits in H2
  • Breton Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • CBAT: Reports strong margins and improved outlook for 2024. Increasing our EPS estimates and target valuation to 2.50.
  • Verisk Analytics Inc.: Capitalizing on the Catastrophe Bond Market! – Major Drivers
  • Virco Mfg. Corp (VIRC) – Sunday, Feb 11, 2024


Toppan Printing (7911) Accelerates Buyback Pace and Amount; But Crossholder Sales Lurk

By Travis Lundy

  • Toppan Printing (7911 JP) established a new Medium-Term Management Plan with targets in May 2023. 8% ROE, PBR >1.0x. More DX business. More management modernisation. More ESG. Mooooarrrrr!
  • They also promised capital measures: ¥100bn of buybacks over three years. Total shareholder return of 50%+ over three years. More progress in selling down cross-holdings. 
  • Today the company reported better-than expected full-year revenues, OP, and Net Profit, added more to the buybacks, and shortened the buyback period to two years. Details matter.

Innospace IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Innospace is target price of 51,481 won per share (12 month view), which is 28% higher than the midpoint of the IPO valuation range.
  • We estimate Innospace to generate sales of 1.8 billion won in 2024, 28.7 billion won in 2025, and 58.3 billion won in 2026.
  • Innospace is involved in the satellite launch vehicle production and launch service business.

Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Guiding for Lower Profits in H2

By Scott Foster

  • FY Mar-24 results were ahead of guidance, but management’s FY Mar-25 forecast has sales flat and profits down in the second half.
  • The shares have dropped back 24% from their all-time high, bringing the forward P/E ratio down to 22X.
  • China and foundry remain strong while North America and memory pick up. Guidance is probably conservative. Buy into the weakness.

Breton Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Breton Technology (1884270D CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and CMB International.
  • Breton Technology is a clean energy solution provider in China, focusing on the design, development and commercialization of engineering machinery powered by new energy sources. 
  • Such engineering machinery includes battery-electric loaders and wide-body dump trucks, each offering a variety of payload and battery capacities. 

CBAT: Reports strong margins and improved outlook for 2024. Increasing our EPS estimates and target valuation to 2.50.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • CBAK Energy Technology is poised to benefit from a sharp uptick in portable energy systems and home energy storage.
  • Despite pricing pressures in the industry, CBAK’s strong relationships with key customers and solid safety record enabled has enabled it to retain pricing power which boosted battery margins significantly in the first quarter as raw material continued to fall.
  • As investors begin to focus on the growing and profitable battery business, we believe there is substantial upside for the stock which is now trading at just over 3 times our 2024 EPS estimate.

Verisk Analytics Inc.: Capitalizing on the Catastrophe Bond Market! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the first quarter 2024, Verisk Analytics, Inc. reported solid performance with organic constant currency revenue growth of 6.9%, driven partially by broad-based subscription growth of 7.8% across most of its businesses.
  • The result was aligned with guidance for 2024 and highlighted the company’s efforts to evolve into an integrated insurance-focused enterprise.
  • CEO Lee Shavel stated that Verisk is driving predictable and consistent growth by partnering with the insurance ecosystem to address their major challenges.

Virco Mfg. Corp (VIRC) – Sunday, Feb 11, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Late 90s/early 00’s had stock volatility based on undisclosed news, while recent market movements show stocks moving significantly without any news
  • Example of stock Virco dropping 18% with no news and high trading volume, despite company having positive financial indicators
  • Virco has small outstanding share count, manageable net debt, and attractive valuation multiples based on estimated future earnings

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group , Aozora Bank Ltd, Go Digit General Insurance, WinVest Acquisition Corp, Chongho Bridge, Global Indemnity Group LLC, NB Private Equity Partners, Ethereum and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • ESR Group (1821 HK): Offer Musings
  • ESR Group (1821 HK): Starwood Capital and SSW Partners Gauging a Privatisation Bid
  • Aozora (8304) – Daiwa Securities Group (8601) Tie-Up – Daiwa To Buy 15+%
  • Go Digit General Insurance IPO – Growth Remains Strong, Valuation Isn’t Cheap
  • The Art of the Deal
  • Chongho Bridge Pre-IPO – Broad Offering Catered to Rural Consumers, However, Market Is Fragmented
  • GBLI: Global Indemnity announced 1st quarter 2024 financial results which showed improved underwriting results and increasing net investment income.
  • Hardman & Co Research on NB Private Equity Partners: Wider operating company EBITDA margins in 2023
  • Crypto Crisp: Your Move, Gary Gensler


ESR Group (1821 HK): Offer Musings

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in February this year, various media sources reported that the key shareholders of warehouse/fund management play ESR Group (1821 HK), were exploring options, including a privatisation.
  • Long-Term holders Warburg Pincus and Canadian pension fund OMERS hold 14% and 10.7% respectively. ESR co-founders/directors Jeffrey Shen, Stuart Gibson, Charles de Portes, and Hwee Chiang collectively hold another ~23%.
  • Shares in ESR were suspended this morning “pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers“.

ESR Group (1821 HK): Starwood Capital and SSW Partners Gauging a Privatisation Bid

By Arun George

  • ESR Group (1821 HK) is on a trading halt. Press reports suggest a consortium featuring Starwood Capital Group and SSW Partners is considering a buyout.
  • Starwood and SSW are approaching other shareholders to join the consortium. The other members are likely Warburg Pincus, OMERS, Jinchu Shen, and Hwee Chiang Lim.
  • The offer is likely to be structured as a Cayman privatisation scheme. Our best guess is that an offer of at least HK$14.00 per share would be needed. 

Aozora (8304) – Daiwa Securities Group (8601) Tie-Up – Daiwa To Buy 15+%

By Travis Lundy

  • Pre-Open on February 1 2024, Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP) announced writedowns and a forecast revision, lowering full-year net profit expectations from +¥24bn to -¥28bn.
  • Shares which had been trading relatively richly (and heavily shorted) fell sharply over the following days, then noted activist Murakami-san started buying in. Then he bought more and went silent.
  • Today, Aozora reported full-year earnings – much worse than expected and Mar25 guidance lower than already low Street estimates. And they are selling 15% stake to Daiwa Securities Group. Oof!

Go Digit General Insurance IPO – Growth Remains Strong, Valuation Isn’t Cheap

By Sumeet Singh

  • Go Digit General Insurance is looking to raise around US$315m in its India IPO.
  • Go Digit General Insurance is a digital full stack insurance company, offering motor insurance, health insurance, travel insurance, property insurance, marine insurance, liability insurance and other insurance products.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance in our past note. In this note, we talk about the refiling updates and valuations.

The Art of the Deal

By subSPAC

  • The last week of SPACs was packed with activity, including deals, bankruptcies, and IPOs.
  • Two new deals are announced including a SPAC taking a digital commerce platform connecting buyers and sellers public, and a blank-cheque firm merging with a company producing large format projection screens for the entertainment industry.
  • Also, a used car retailer could declare bankruptcy three years after debuting through a SPAC, and an advanced nuclear fission company sees its shares plummet after completing a SPAC merger. 

Chongho Bridge Pre-IPO – Broad Offering Catered to Rural Consumers, However, Market Is Fragmented

By Clarence Chu

  • Chongho Bridge (2314866D CH) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Chongho Bridge (CB) is an integrated services provider to China’s rural population. It offers rural inclusive credit services, agricultural production services, rural consumer goods and rural clean energy services.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

GBLI: Global Indemnity announced 1st quarter 2024 financial results which showed improved underwriting results and increasing net investment income.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Global Indemnity Group, LLC, provides specialty and niche insurance products nationwide.
  • GBLI focuses on small market property and casualty business.
  • The company has made a concerted effort to reduce its property exposure.

Hardman & Co Research on NB Private Equity Partners: Wider operating company EBITDA margins in 2023

By Hardman & Co

  • We reviewed NBPE’s business model in our initiation, Co-investments generating superior performance.
  • We noted the high-secular-growth and downside-resilient investee companies, the value added by GPs, the good co-investing cashflow and return profile and the value added by the NB. The 2023 results confirmed all these trends.
  • The key numbers were i) NAV p/sh $28.07 (£22.02), ii) private portfolio +5.3% in 2023 on a constant currency basis, iii) EV/LTM EBITDA 14.9x, and iv) debt/EBITDA 5.3x.

Crypto Crisp: Your Move, Gary Gensler

By Mads Eberhardt

  • We have entered the week before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must decide on VanEck’s Ethereum spot ETF application, with a decision due next Thursday, May 23.
  • It is expected that the outcome for this application will set a precedent for all the other Ethereum ETF applications.
  • This issue of Crypto Crisp focuses extensively on the Ethereum spot ETF.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Cafe De Coral Holdings, Paris Miki Holdings, Shiseido Company, BYD, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Tesla , GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT, Johnson Controls, TBO Tek, Cocoa Futures and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cafe De Coral (341 HK): Immediate Upside
  • Luxottica Buys Washin Optical, Paris Miki Next?
  • Shiseido (4911 JP):  1Q24 Results Beat; Recovery On Track
  • China Consumption Weekly (13 May 2024): Guangzhou Auto, NIO, CALT, Kuaishou, Trip.com, Seres
  • Raising ROE May Require Raising Proxy Voting Guidelines
  • TSLA: Chinese EV Tariffs?$$$
  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Metamorphosis
  • Johnson Controls International: A Tale Of Acceleration in Orders and Pipeline Growth! – Major Drivers
  • TBO Tek IPO Trading – Has One of the Highest Subscription Rates so Far This Year
  • Investors Flock Back Into Commodity Funds & New Cocoa Narrative


Cafe De Coral (341 HK): Immediate Upside

By Henry Soediarko


Luxottica Buys Washin Optical, Paris Miki Next?

By Michael Causton

  • EssilorLuxottica has always played a long game in Japan but since 2018 the eyewear giant has been investing in local production and a growing store network.
  • As reported by Mark Chadwick,Travis Lundy and myself, Luxottica has a stake in Paris Miki Holdings (7455 JP) and the Japanese firm is a key strategic interest for EssilorLuxottica.
  • That Luxottica is increasing its investments in Japan retail through acquisition is evidenced by its takeover of Washin Optical, a 70-store eyewear chain, last month.

Shiseido (4911 JP):  1Q24 Results Beat; Recovery On Track

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Shiseido Company (4911 JP) reported 1Q24 results last Friday.  Core operating profit declined less than expected at -10% yoy, and exceeded the management’s target. 
  • The beat was driven by robust growth in Japan, Americas, and EMEA, while China steadily recovered.  Overall sales growth was 4% yoy in the quarter. 
  • As a reminder, the investment thesis for Shiseido is twofold:  a recovering China mainly due to one-off concerns (nuclear wastewater), and a margin recovery story in Japan. 

China Consumption Weekly (13 May 2024): Guangzhou Auto, NIO, CALT, Kuaishou, Trip.com, Seres

By Ming Lu

  • The new energy vehicle producers’ ranks changed a lot in April.
  • GAC began to sell batteries to outside new energy vehicle producers.
  • Kuaishou’s GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) increased by 420% YoY during the Labor Day.

Raising ROE May Require Raising Proxy Voting Guidelines

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Although many institutional investors’ voting criteria apply the rule of “support the proposed appointment of top management director if one female director is nominated,” more in-depth examination should be conducted.
  • Agenda based on TSE’s request isn’t easy to understand for all investors, and the current voting guidelines for domestic institutional investors make it unlikely that they will vote for it.
  • The ISS ROE criteria will be raised next year, and companies may not raise ROE with bold shareholder returns until the voting guidelines for domestic institutional investors are also raised.

TSLA: Chinese EV Tariffs?$$$

By Value Investing

  • Takeaways: Biden plans to quadruple US/EU tariffs on Chinese EV imports.
  • This will further defend TSLA’s domestic beachhead: 1) 50% EV market share in the USA (No. 2: Ford 7% ) + 2) huge headstart over domestic auto incumbents in assembly line processes (Gigapress) & high manufacturing concentration .
  • Together, this should result in superior economies of scale which translates into lower unit costs — increasingly important in a commoditizing US EV sector.

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Metamorphosis

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) booked an encouraging set of 1Q2024 results which provided a first look at the new structure, whereby suddenly e-commerce became cashflow positive for the company. 
  • The company booked strong headline growth with core GMV increasing by +32% YoY, despite incentive & product spending decreasing by -31% YoY, whilst adjusted EBITDA losses fell -89% YoY. 
  • GoTo will drive growth less through incentives and more through innovative products, increasing the user base, and focusing on retention through its subscription products, with fintech becoming increasingly important. 

Johnson Controls International: A Tale Of Acceleration in Orders and Pipeline Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The second quarter performance for Johnson Controls was strong, with adjusted EPS coming in at the upper limit of company estimations.
  • Johnson Controls managed to return to sales growth after experiencing a cybersecurity disturbance at the beginning of the fiscal year.
  • Backed by productivity and the conversion of their higher-margin backlog, the company achieved robust margin expansion.

TBO Tek IPO Trading – Has One of the Highest Subscription Rates so Far This Year

By Ethan Aw

  • TBO Tek (0395045D IN) raised around US$186m in its India IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of the range at INR920/share.
  • TBO Tek is a global travel distribution platform. Its two-sided technology platform serves companies involved in the travel industry such as hotels, airlines, travel agencies and travel management companies.
  • We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about demand and trading dynamics.

Investors Flock Back Into Commodity Funds & New Cocoa Narrative

By The Commodity Report

  • Investors Flock Back Into Commodity Funds Investors are increasingly flocking to commodity funds again.
  • A net €353 million flowed into funds from the Morningstar Broad Basket Commodities category in Europe in April.
  • This was by far the best month for the category in over two years.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Naver Corp, HD Hyundai Marine Solution and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Local Reports in Korea Regarding A Holdings Stake Sale Between Naver & Softbank
  • ECM Weekly (13th May 2024) – Hyundai Marine, Zeekr, Swiggy, Indegene, Aadhar, TBO, Wuxi XDC, ASMedia


Local Reports in Korea Regarding A Holdings Stake Sale Between Naver & Softbank

By Sanghyun Park

  • Naver doesn’t view the sale of its A Holdings stake unfavorably; insiders suggest it’s been planning this move since last year.
  • Market speculation suggests Naver was disappointed by Softbank’s rejection of CLOVA X in LINE, prompting plans to sell A Holdings stake for AI development. A sale agreement is expected soon.
  • The method through which Softbank secures funds for this acquisition is worth the attention from a short-term trading perspective.

ECM Weekly (13th May 2024) – Hyundai Marine, Zeekr, Swiggy, Indegene, Aadhar, TBO, Wuxi XDC, ASMedia

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, after a stellar showing by HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), the coming week will be a busy one for India listings.
  • On the placement front, there were no major deals during the week. We did look at Asmedia Technology (5269 TT) planned GDR, and Wuxi XDC’s upcoming lockup expiry.

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Daily Brief United States: ZEEKR and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • ZEEKR IPO: Strong First-Day Return and Upsized Offering


ZEEKR IPO: Strong First-Day Return and Upsized Offering

By Andrei Zakharov

  • ZEEKR, a rapidly growing premium EV maker, has successfully completed its IPO and raised ~$441M. The offering was priced at the top of the range at $21 per share.
  • The company sold a total of 21M ADSs, up from the initial target of 17.5M shares. ZEEKR’s stock soared more than 30% following its strong debut on NYSE on Friday.
  • Geely Auto, Mobileye and CATL have acquired ~14.3M ADSs and overall investor sentiment was positive. I believe ZEEKR may succeed as a high-volume EV maker worldwide.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Great Eastern Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): OCBC’s Offer Needs a Bump to Achieve Privatisation Ambitions


Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): OCBC’s Offer Needs a Bump to Achieve Privatisation Ambitions

By Arun George

  • OCBC (OCBC SP) has announced a voluntary unconditional general offer for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) at S$25.60 per share, a 36.90% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • OCBC aims to privatise Great Eastern by delisting resolutions or exercising compulsory acquisition rights. The offer has not been declared final.
  • While the offer is reasonable, it is not a knockout bid which would comfortably allow OCBC to privatise through either option. A bump is highly likely.   

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Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 06-May-24 to 10-May-24


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 06-May-24 to 10-May-24

By Sankalp Singh

  • Election-Related volatility being reflected in options. India VIX has surged 70% over the past two weeks. Quarterly IVs have seen the largest rise as they capture election result date.
  • BankNifty IVs are finally responding as the market plays catch up to the bank regulator’s new-found aggressiveness
  • Elevated Vol-of-vol observed the past few weeks. Vol-regime Switching Model continues to point to “High & Down” state. Odds of switching to a “High & Up” state are increasing.

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Daily Brief China: JD.com , Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., BeiGene , Cosco Shipping Ports, Dream International, China Jinmao Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$2.4bn in June
  • Merger Arb Mondays (13 May) – GA Pack, HEC Pharma, L’Occitane, Alps Logistics, Great Eastern
  • China Healthcare Weekly (May12)-Policy Catalyst in Medical Device, GLP-1 Overvaluation, Pientzehuang
  • BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) 24Q1- A Breakeven Point Is on the Horizon, but It Is Not Stable
  • China Port Pair Opportunity: COSCO Shipping Ports Vs. China Merchants Port
  • Dream International (1126 HK)  Management Concall: 4x PE,11.4% Div Yield,40% of Mkt Cap in Cash
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Sunny Optical Technology Group, Yuexiu Property


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$2.4bn in June

By Brian Freitas



China Healthcare Weekly (May12)-Policy Catalyst in Medical Device, GLP-1 Overvaluation, Pientzehuang

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The National Health Commission and eight other departments issued “Opinions on strengthening the capacity building of critical care medical services”. New policy catalysts in the medical device sector arrives.
  • Current valuations of weight-loss drug companies have “large bubble”, which have basically priced in all the potential of GLP-1s even based on optimistic assumptions. We advise investors to be rational.
  • The price of core raw materials is showing a continuous upward trend, which will inevitably cause certain difficulties for Pientzehuang’s performance growth in 2024. Valuation has more downside ahead.

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) 24Q1- A Breakeven Point Is on the Horizon, but It Is Not Stable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The market is satisfied with BeiGene’s 24Q1 performance. The major reason for BeiGene to narrow net loss in 24Q1 was based on strong product revenue growth rather than cost control. 
  • Given the varying pace of product promotion/R&D expenditure and the changes of product sales growth, BeiGene’s adjusted loss may achieve breakeven in a certain quarter of this year (e.g. 24Q4).
  • BeiGene (6160 HK) is hard to cut costs largely. Sustained overall profitability may not be achieved until 2026 or 2027. But at least, we still see hope for a turnaround.

China Port Pair Opportunity: COSCO Shipping Ports Vs. China Merchants Port

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China’s two national port companies China Merchants Port (144 HK) and Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) have underperformed, but exports have picked up. We see an opportunity here.
  • With a 9.2% increase in container throughput, CSPL even down by 4.8% YTD, underperformed CMPH by 12.9pp. There is room for it to catch up.
  • CSPL is also cheaper at 7x and 6.3x PERs for the next two years, making it more attractive on a relative basis.

Dream International (1126 HK)  Management Concall: 4x PE,11.4% Div Yield,40% of Mkt Cap in Cash

By Sameer Taneja

  • We summarize our gleanings from the conference call with Dream International (1126 HK) to better understand growth opportunities and future expansion plans.
  • The company is expanding in Indonesia to increase its capacity by 30 million USD ( over 830 million USD). (capacity utilization for FY23:83%).
  • Trading at 4x FY24e PE, with an 11.4% dividend yield and a 15-year average ROE of 20%, this is a stock worth exploring. 

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Sunny Optical Technology Group, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: KDDI Corp, Sumitomo Chemical, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Paycloud Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • KDDI (9433) – Own Share Tender Offer, Toyota To Sell (Gasp!) Redux (Another Buyback in H2 Possible)
  • Sumitomo Chemical (4005): To Believe Or Not To Believe, That Is the Question
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP): Orders Momentum Has Peaked
  • Paycloud Holdings (4015 JP)


KDDI (9433) – Own Share Tender Offer, Toyota To Sell (Gasp!) Redux (Another Buyback in H2 Possible)

By Travis Lundy

  • In May 2023, KDDI Corp (9433 JP) announced a ¥300bn buyback program, did nothing for two months, then announced a Tender Offer Buyback to buy shares from Toyota. 
  • Toyota had increased its stake years before, then KDDI bought back shares from others, so Toyota was backing its ownership down. I discussed the relationships, history, etc, here.
  • This year, KDDI announced Friday with earnings that is buying back another large stake from Toyota. 

Sumitomo Chemical (4005): To Believe Or Not To Believe, That Is the Question

By Michael Allen

  • Sumitomo Chemical issued new guidance in-line for 3/24 and xx% ahead of consensus for 3/25 EBIT, yet, the shares promptly declined by 10%.
  • Traders were probably spooked by the company’s booking of ¥340bn in impairments that was ¥200bn more than published consensus, but we argue that this was more than already priced in.
  • The only reasonable explanation for the reaction is that the market doesn’t believe the new guidance for 3/25. This could prove to be a huge mistake.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP): Orders Momentum Has Peaked

By Scott Foster

  • MHI was sold off last week as FY Mar-24 operating profit fell short of guidance and management guided for a decline in new orders this fiscal year.
  • Orders momentum has peaked. Sales and profits will follow. But the latter are still rising and guidance could once again be conservative.
  • Consolidation of the share price is likely to continue until orders and profit trends are confirmed.

Paycloud Holdings (4015 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • 1H Results: On April 12, 2024, Paycloud Holdings Inc. announced its 2Q FY2024/8 earnings, its first earnings announcement since becoming a holding company and changing its name on March 1, 2024.
  • In 1H FY2024/8, the company reported net sales of ¥1,990 mn, adjusted EBITDA of ¥226 mn, and operating profit of ¥86 mn. It had an irregular 5-month accounting period in 1Q FY2023/8 that included the July-August 2022 earnings following a change in the accounting period of the former Valuedesign Inc., which was merged with the company.
  • As a result, the company’s earnings summary for 1H FY2024/8 show sales being down 12% YoY, adjusted EBITDA up 2% YoY, and operating profit up 237% YoY.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 10th): BOC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 10th): BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou Technology
  • A-H Premium Weekly (May 10th): 19 Stocks at 52w Low
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Li Auto, Tencent, Petrochina, BOC
  • Northbound Flows (May 10th): Moutai, CMB, Inovance, Haier Smart Home, Luxshare Precision, Nari
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 10th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 10th): Evergreen Marine, Realtek Semi, Asia Vital, Elite Semi
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 10th): Samsung Electronics, Kb Financial


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 10th): BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou Technology

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 10th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou Technology.

A-H Premium Weekly (May 10th): 19 Stocks at 52w Low

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 114.0% as of May 10th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -7.0ppt week-on-week, led by energy, utilities, communication services and offset by consumer staples, consumer discretionary.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Petrochina, CGN Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power, Cansino, Pharmaron.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Li Auto, Tencent, Petrochina, BOC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 3rd.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Li Auto, Tencent, Petrochina, BOC.

Northbound Flows (May 10th): Moutai, CMB, Inovance, Haier Smart Home, Luxshare Precision, Nari

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 10th.
  • We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,023.9 million, led by consumer staples, materials, financials sectors, and offset by information technology, communication services, consumer discretionary.
  • We highlight flows for Moutai, CMB, Shenzhen Inovance Technology, Haier Smart Home, Luxshare Precision, Nari Technology, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology, Midea, Focus Media.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 10th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 10th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,060.0bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,948mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech, Lite-On Tech, Chailease, Lotus, Novatek, Alchip Tech, Asia Vital.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 10th): Evergreen Marine, Realtek Semi, Asia Vital, Elite Semi

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 10th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD90.4bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Evergreen Marine, Realtek Semi, Asia Vital, Elite Semiconductor, Fitipower.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 10th): Samsung Electronics, Kb Financial

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX Stocks as of May 10th which has an aggregated holding worth USD540.4bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,299mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Kb Financial (105560 KS).

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