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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: SK IE Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Key Timing Window for a Surge in Block Deals Before Pre-Disclosure Takes Effect in July


Key Timing Window for a Surge in Block Deals Before Pre-Disclosure Takes Effect in July

By Sanghyun Park

  • Anticipation grows for increased block deals before July 24th’s pre-announcement rule takes effect, emerging as a key investment focus in the local market.
  • The local market expects heightened activity in the three weeks post-May 15th, following first-quarter earnings announcements, a strategic move to mitigate insider trading controversies.
  • Local traders eagerly await which companies will capitalize on the post-first-quarter earnings window, with a highly anticipated block deal involving SK Innovation selling a portion of its stake in SKIET.

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Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, ContextLogic , Lands’ End Inc, Lantern Pharma , Soligenix , Syra Health , Talen Energy , Vail Resorts, Cinemark Holdings, Valvoline and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel’s Foundry Chief Runs For The Hills
  • Contextlogic Inc (WISH) – Tuesday, Feb 13, 2024
  • LE: Snapping the Catalog: The “New” Lands’ End Swim; Reiterate Buy & $14 PT
  • LTRN: Expanding Horizons into Asia
  • SNGX: Second Confirmatory Phase 3 Trial of HyBryte in CTCL to Initiate Before End of 2024
  • SYRA: Reiterates Revenue Guidance Up 64%-100% Y/Y, Diversifying, Growing Pipeline
  • TLNE: Spark of Value
  • Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) – Tuesday, Feb 13, 2024
  • Cinemark Holdings Inc (CNK) – Tuesday, Feb 13, 2024
  • Pershing Square Challenge 2024 winning team shares pitch on Valvoline $VVV


Intel’s Foundry Chief Runs For The Hills

By William Keating

  • In a surprise move, Intel announced that its foundry chief Stuart Pann is to retire from the company effective end of May after just over one year in the role
  • He will be replaced by former IBM, Globalfoundries and Marvell executive Kevin O’Buckley, effective immediately
  • Mr. O’Buckley now has the dubious distinction of being the third leader of IFS in as many years. 

Contextlogic Inc (WISH) – Tuesday, Feb 13, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • textLogic Inc. has entered into a definitive agreement to merge with Qoo10, a leading Asian e-commerce platform
  • The deal values Wish at less than its estimated book value as of 12/31/23, reflecting the company’s struggles, but presents opportunities for growth and synergies
  • The merger will allow ContextLogic to focus on monetizing its valuable NOLs and cash position, potentially unlocking additional value for shareholders and signaling a new chapter for Wish as it moves past its downfall

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


LE: Snapping the Catalog: The “New” Lands’ End Swim; Reiterate Buy & $14 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $14 price target, and projections for Lands’ End after reviewing the May catalogs for 2023 and 2024.
  • The overwhelming focus for this month is swim, one of the core categories for the company.
  • Lands’ End continues to drive deeper levels of newness to capture higher pricing and create a sense of urgency for purchases.

LTRN: Expanding Horizons into Asia

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Lantern Pharma uses AI & data to identify drug responders, uncover mechanism of action & rescue failed drugs.
  • It is developing LP-300 for non- & never smoker NSCLC in the Harmonic trial.
  • Secondary candidates include LP-100 for mCRPC and LP-184 and LP-284 which are in clinical development for multiple biomarker-defined tumors and hematological cancers, respectively.

SNGX: Second Confirmatory Phase 3 Trial of HyBryte in CTCL to Initiate Before End of 2024

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On May 10, 2024, Soligenix, Inc. (SNGX) announced financial results for the first quarter of 2024 and provided a business update.
  • The company recently completed a public offering for gross proceeds of approximately $4.75 million.
  • This capital infusion is important as the company prepares to initiate a second Phase 3 trial of HyBryte (synthetic hypericin) in the treatment of cutaneous T cell lymphoma (CTCL).

SYRA: Reiterates Revenue Guidance Up 64%-100% Y/Y, Diversifying, Growing Pipeline

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • The company attributed the strong topline to investments in technology and personnel made in recent quarters to support expected growth.
  • The Caduceus sub-contract is not included in guidance and so therefore could provide upside, depending on when it comes on stream.
  • Moreover, SYRA is optimistic about potential new federal business.

TLNE: Spark of Value

By Hamed Khorsand

  • TLNE reported Q1 results benefiting from its hedging program to offset the warmer winter in parts of the country. The Q1 results confirmed the commentary management had previously provided
  • TLNE sold its power plants in Texas subsequent to the first quarter ending. This should remove a large portion of volatility from TLNE’s operations
  • Spark spreads have continued to move in TLNE’s favor implying quarterly results this year could remain above expectations

Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) – Tuesday, Feb 13, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Vail Resorts has underperformed benchmarks in the past but is now poised for a turnaround
  • The company has expanded its portfolio to 41 strategically located destinations and increased EBITDA and revenue by over 50% since 2018
  • Despite increased leverage from acquisitions, the management team has effectively managed disruptions to the business and presents an attractive investment opportunity with potential for growth

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Cinemark Holdings Inc (CNK) – Tuesday, Feb 13, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Cinemark Holdings, Inc. is the 3rd largest movie theater chain in North America with over 500 theaters, making it a compelling risk/reward investment opportunity
  • Stock has decreased in value due to concerns about potential impact of Hollywood strikes in 2024, but analysts anticipate a return to box office growth by mid-3Q 2024 and a focus on blockbuster films in 2025
  • Analysts project >50% return in equity over next 6 to 12 months, with potential for greater gains in the future, citing Cinemark’s strong position in suburban areas with lower rent costs as an added attraction for investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Pershing Square Challenge 2024 winning team shares pitch on Valvoline $VVV

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Valvoline is a vehicle service center focused on quick lube and basic maintenance services.
  • They have a new focus as a pure play company after divesting their global products business in 2023.
  • The team pitched Valvoline with a price target of $84, representing a 95% price upside and 22% IRR.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Singapore: Great Eastern Holdings, Grab Holdings , OUE Ltd, Scilex Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Great Eastern (GE SP): Getting Technical
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Rich in Initiatives
  • 10 in 10 with OUE Healthcare – Sustainable Expansion across Asia
  • SCLX: Making Decisions That Should Boost Revenue


Great Eastern (GE SP): Getting Technical

By David Blennerhassett

  • Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) has consistently traded through OCBC (OCBC SP)‘s Offer terms from the onset. 
  • OCBC did not declare its S$25.60 cash Offer final. And someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, presumably towards negotiating a bump in terms.
  • But what happens if GE’s free float falls <10% at the close of the Offer and GE is suspended? And OCBC has no intention of restoring the float?

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Rich in Initiatives

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab‘s focus last year was offering more affordable products, which helped to increase its addressable market. FY2024 will see the rollout of a broader range of initiatives across economic segments. 
  • This year Grab is rolling out more premium offerings and new initiatives, including advance bookings, family accounts, increased reviews, and new merchant features to grow revenue streams from advertising.
  • The upcoming results are likely to reflect seasonal factors but should also reveal something about Grab’s new initiatives and the changing competitive environment, with GoTo investing more aggressively. 

10 in 10 with OUE Healthcare – Sustainable Expansion across Asia

By Geoff Howie

10 in 10 with OUE Healthcare – Sustainable Expansion across Asia

SCLX: Making Decisions That Should Boost Revenue

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • SCLX is filling a much-needed area of the health care sector, that of developing non-opioid pain relief products.
  • The company already has commercialized products that are proven to improve patients’ lives.
  • The company reported 1Q2024 results that were a little shy of estimates, but growth continues, and the product line should accelerate growth in the coming years.

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Daily Brief India: Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd, Bajaj Finance Ltd, GHCL Textiles, Belstar Microfinance Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Trading – More Loved by Institutional Investors than Retail
  • Bajaj Finance (BAF): Strengthening Franchise to Sustain Growth Longevity
  • GHCL Textile Q4 FY24 Update
  • Belstar Microfinance Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Trading – More Loved by Institutional Investors than Retail

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aadhar Housing Finance(AHF) raised around US$360m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
  • AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Bajaj Finance (BAF): Strengthening Franchise to Sustain Growth Longevity

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • BAF reported a decent Q4FY24 led by strong AUM growth and robust customer acquisition. Adjusted for the impact of the regulatory ban, Q4FY24 results were in line with the expectation.  
  • The biggest negative surprise in Q4FY24 was the 21bp NIM compression. NIM compressed led by AUM composition shifting incrementally to secured assets. 
  • BAF is optimistic on growth across segments, except Rural B2C where risk metrics are somewhat elevated; however this should normalize, given Rural B2B is doing fine.

GHCL Textile Q4 FY24 Update

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • GHCL Textiles (GHCLTEXT IN)  Aiming 25-30% revenue growth along with 15-20% average margins significantly increase the profitability of the company.
  • Entering into value-added products like Functional fabrics and setting up their own manufacturing plant for fabric.
  • Management Guidance on yarn prices, capex and debt profile of the company.

Belstar Microfinance Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Belstar Microfinance Ltd (3624918Z IN) is looking to raise US$156m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, HDFC Bank, SBI Capital Markets.
  • Belstar Microfinance (Belstar) is a non-banking finance company (NBFC) in India with a focus on furnishing micro-enterprise loans.
  • As per the CRISIL report, the firm was the ninth largest NBFC – Micro Finance Institution (NBFC-MFI) in terms of assets under management (AUM) as of Dec 2023.

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Daily Brief China: Tencent, Alibaba Group Holding , Li Auto , Xinyi Solar Holdings, Cheerwin, Longfor Properties, China Tourism Group Duty Free and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent Q1 FY24 Results Due, a Look into What Is Priced
  • Tencent (700 HK): Q1 FY24 Results Quick Take, Margin Expansion Drives Decent Set of Results
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q24, Main Business Began to Grow
  • Tencent (700 HK): 1Q24, Highest Margin in Seven Years
  • Tencent: Online Advertising and High-Margin Businesses Support Earnings
  • Quiddity HSTECH Jun 24 Final Expectations: US$1.6bn One-Way; Li Auto, JD, Xiaomi, Meituan, & Tencent
  • Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Final Expectations: 2 Changes Likely; US$496mn One-Way Flow
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Cheerwin – Number One Provider of Mosquito Repellents in China
  • Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci, Softbank Group
  • CTG Duty Free (1800 HK): Down and Out?


Tencent Q1 FY24 Results Due, a Look into What Is Priced

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Tencent is due to release Q1 FY24 results today. The earnings call is scheduled for 14:00 SAST
  • In this note, we unpack what is priced and how Tencent has performed relative to constituents in the HSTECH index since our last update (29 April).
  • We also provide an update on how the discounts of Naspers and Prosus have traded.

Tencent (700 HK): Q1 FY24 Results Quick Take, Margin Expansion Drives Decent Set of Results

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Tencent reported a decent set of results for Q1 FY24. Revenue for the quarter was up 2.8% QoQ and 6.3% YoY, ahead of consensus estimates (2.3% & 5.9%).
  • The gross margin came in at 53%, 3 percentage points ahead of consensus, and an increase of 7 percentage points on Q1 FY23.
  • The gross margin for the Fintech and Business Services segment, which accounts for 33% of revenue, increased by 12 percentage points to 46% (consensus 42.6%).

Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q24, Main Business Began to Grow

By Ming Lu

  • Customer management as the largest business began to increase compared to the past two stagnant quarters.
  • We believe margin will continue to decline as the company turned its focus to growth.
  • We conclude an upside of 41% for March 2025 based on peer companies’ P/S ratios.

Tencent (700 HK): 1Q24, Highest Margin in Seven Years

By Ming Lu

  • The operating margin in 1Q24 reached the highest since 2Q16, as the gross margins of all businesses improved.
  • The growth rate of online advertising is high than our estimate, but the growth rate of FinTech is lower than our estimate.
  • We believe there is still an upside of 9% and the price target will be HK$415 for the end of 2024.

Tencent: Online Advertising and High-Margin Businesses Support Earnings

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent (700 HK) reported 1Q2024 results today. Both revenues and OP grew 6.3% and 30.0% YoY respectively and beat consensus estimates.
  • Though domestic games revenues declined YoY, there were signs of recovery in Tencent’s gaming business. Online advertising saw strong growth despite 1Q being a seasonally weak quarter for Tencent.
  • Tencent’s investments in high-margin products have helped boost the company’s margins across all business segments.

Quiddity HSTECH Jun 24 Final Expectations: US$1.6bn One-Way; Li Auto, JD, Xiaomi, Meituan, & Tencent

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • The final results for the June 2024 index rebal event will be confirmed after market close on Friday 17th May 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our latest flow expectations.

Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Final Expectations: 2 Changes Likely; US$496mn One-Way Flow

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • The index changes and indicative weights for the June 2024 index rebal event will be announced after market close on Friday 17th May 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and our latest flow expectations.

Asian Dividend Gems: Cheerwin – Number One Provider of Mosquito Repellents in China

By Douglas Kim

  • Cheerwin is a strong turnaround story with significant earnings growth in 2023 with solid dividend yield. It is the number one player in the inspect repellent sector in China. 
  • Cheerwin’s current price is 79% lower than the IPO  price. However, Cheerwin’s shares are up 35% YTD, sharply outperforming Hang Seng index which is up 13.6% YTD.
  • We found Cheerwin (6601 HK) using Smartkarma’s Smart Score Screener system. We used the following screening methodology: Market cap – More than $300 million Dividends = 5 only.

Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci, Softbank Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


CTG Duty Free (1800 HK): Down and Out?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • While its share price has collapsed, China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) is still facing many challenges and uncertainties which render it unattractive at current level.
  • Average duty free spending per customer in Hainan is 46% lower than the peak and 26% lower YoY in Mar 2024, and the downtrend looks to continue.
  • The government’s efforts to strike down purchasing agents in Hainan duty free products and the island’s change to a duty-free zone are also negative developments.

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Daily Brief Japan: Modec Inc, Ushio Inc, Square Enix Holdings, Longfor Properties, Sodick Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime – Effectively a Re-IPO
  • MODEC (6296 JP): A US$535 Million Secondary Offering
  • Another HUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback After A HUGE Buyback Last Year
  • Japan – Another Big Round of Passive Selling
  • Modec Placement – Deal Seems a Little Opportunistic but Not Particularly Expensive
  • Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci, Softbank Group
  • Sodick (6143 JP) – Incremental Progress Is Being Made


YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime – Effectively a Re-IPO

By Travis Lundy

  • In March, Modec Inc (6269 JP) announced the TSE had said Modec at 29.3% (end-Dec-23) was below the required 35% tradable shares level required for continued listing on TSE Prime. 
  • It announced a “Basic Plan” to comply with the criteria which involved convincing one of the three major corporate holders to sell some. They needed to sell about 6%.
  • Mitsui E&S has announced it will sell 32%, and 37% including greenshoe. This is overdoing it in a huge way. Mitsui E&S is getting out. This is a re-IPO.

MODEC (6296 JP): A US$535 Million Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Modec Inc (6269 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 25.2 million shares (including overallotment). The largest shareholder, Mitsui E&S Holdings (7003 JP), is the seller.
  • MODEC’s goal with the secondary offering is to reconfigure its shareholder mix to have a diverse base of shareholders who support its long-term strategies and a better tradable share ratio.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 22 and 28 May (likely 22 May).

Another HUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback After A HUGE Buyback Last Year

By Travis Lundy

  • Last year with earnings, Ushio Inc (6925 JP) announced a HUUUGE buyback discussed in  HUUUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback. The headline was 17% of shares out. They ended up buying 13.2%. 
  • Last year the stock popped on the news. Then shares went sideways for months. Then they went up on stable (bad) earnings guidance in H2. Today they beat Q3-updated guidance.
  • But today they announced a “new growth strategy” to 2030, and guided to a SHARP (-60%) drop in OP and NP to March 2025, and announced a HUUUGE Buyback. Again.

Japan – Another Big Round of Passive Selling

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.
  • Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.
  • Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.

Modec Placement – Deal Seems a Little Opportunistic but Not Particularly Expensive

By Ethan Aw

  • Mitsui E&S Holdings (7003 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$451m through a secondary follow-on offering, via selling approximately 21.9m shares (32% of TSO) of Modec Inc (6269 JP)’s stock. 
  • The deal is a large one to digest at 81 days of three month ADV. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci, Softbank Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Sodick (6143 JP) – Incremental Progress Is Being Made

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • An uplift in China orders – Q1 FY12/24 results saw a continued decline in sales by 7.4% YoY and 9.3% QoQ.
  • However, the core Machine Tools segment saw flat sales QoQ, and order visibility improved with China orders rising by 39.4% QoQ albeit from a low base.
  • Cost reduction efforts have commenced and are set to accelerate into Q2 FY12/24 which should improve the scope for profitability, although ultimately this will be sales volume dependent. 

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Daily Brief ECM: YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime – Effectively a Re-IPO and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime – Effectively a Re-IPO
  • MODEC (6296 JP): A US$535 Million Secondary Offering
  • Modec Placement – Deal Seems a Little Opportunistic but Not Particularly Expensive
  • Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Trading – More Loved by Institutional Investors than Retail
  • Belstar Microfinance Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet


YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime – Effectively a Re-IPO

By Travis Lundy

  • In March, Modec Inc (6269 JP) announced the TSE had said Modec at 29.3% (end-Dec-23) was below the required 35% tradable shares level required for continued listing on TSE Prime. 
  • It announced a “Basic Plan” to comply with the criteria which involved convincing one of the three major corporate holders to sell some. They needed to sell about 6%.
  • Mitsui E&S has announced it will sell 32%, and 37% including greenshoe. This is overdoing it in a huge way. Mitsui E&S is getting out. This is a re-IPO.

MODEC (6296 JP): A US$535 Million Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Modec Inc (6269 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 25.2 million shares (including overallotment). The largest shareholder, Mitsui E&S Holdings (7003 JP), is the seller.
  • MODEC’s goal with the secondary offering is to reconfigure its shareholder mix to have a diverse base of shareholders who support its long-term strategies and a better tradable share ratio.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 22 and 28 May (likely 22 May).

Modec Placement – Deal Seems a Little Opportunistic but Not Particularly Expensive

By Ethan Aw

  • Mitsui E&S Holdings (7003 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$451m through a secondary follow-on offering, via selling approximately 21.9m shares (32% of TSO) of Modec Inc (6269 JP)’s stock. 
  • The deal is a large one to digest at 81 days of three month ADV. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Trading – More Loved by Institutional Investors than Retail

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aadhar Housing Finance(AHF) raised around US$360m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
  • AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Belstar Microfinance Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Belstar Microfinance Ltd (3624918Z IN) is looking to raise US$156m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, HDFC Bank, SBI Capital Markets.
  • Belstar Microfinance (Belstar) is a non-banking finance company (NBFC) in India with a focus on furnishing micro-enterprise loans.
  • As per the CRISIL report, the firm was the ninth largest NBFC – Micro Finance Institution (NBFC-MFI) in terms of assets under management (AUM) as of Dec 2023.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci, Softbank Group
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield


Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci, Softbank Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Tencent Q1 FY24 Results Due and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent Q1 FY24 Results Due, a Look into What Is Priced
  • Key Timing Window for a Surge in Block Deals Before Pre-Disclosure Takes Effect in July
  • Tencent (700 HK): Q1 FY24 Results Quick Take, Margin Expansion Drives Decent Set of Results
  • Another HUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback After A HUGE Buyback Last Year
  • Japan – Another Big Round of Passive Selling
  • Great Eastern (GE SP): Getting Technical
  • Quiddity HSTECH Jun 24 Final Expectations: US$1.6bn One-Way; Li Auto, JD, Xiaomi, Meituan, & Tencent
  • Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Final Expectations: 2 Changes Likely; US$496mn One-Way Flow


Tencent Q1 FY24 Results Due, a Look into What Is Priced

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Tencent is due to release Q1 FY24 results today. The earnings call is scheduled for 14:00 SAST
  • In this note, we unpack what is priced and how Tencent has performed relative to constituents in the HSTECH index since our last update (29 April).
  • We also provide an update on how the discounts of Naspers and Prosus have traded.

Key Timing Window for a Surge in Block Deals Before Pre-Disclosure Takes Effect in July

By Sanghyun Park

  • Anticipation grows for increased block deals before July 24th’s pre-announcement rule takes effect, emerging as a key investment focus in the local market.
  • The local market expects heightened activity in the three weeks post-May 15th, following first-quarter earnings announcements, a strategic move to mitigate insider trading controversies.
  • Local traders eagerly await which companies will capitalize on the post-first-quarter earnings window, with a highly anticipated block deal involving SK Innovation selling a portion of its stake in SKIET.

Tencent (700 HK): Q1 FY24 Results Quick Take, Margin Expansion Drives Decent Set of Results

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Tencent reported a decent set of results for Q1 FY24. Revenue for the quarter was up 2.8% QoQ and 6.3% YoY, ahead of consensus estimates (2.3% & 5.9%).
  • The gross margin came in at 53%, 3 percentage points ahead of consensus, and an increase of 7 percentage points on Q1 FY23.
  • The gross margin for the Fintech and Business Services segment, which accounts for 33% of revenue, increased by 12 percentage points to 46% (consensus 42.6%).

Another HUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback After A HUGE Buyback Last Year

By Travis Lundy

  • Last year with earnings, Ushio Inc (6925 JP) announced a HUUUGE buyback discussed in  HUUUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback. The headline was 17% of shares out. They ended up buying 13.2%. 
  • Last year the stock popped on the news. Then shares went sideways for months. Then they went up on stable (bad) earnings guidance in H2. Today they beat Q3-updated guidance.
  • But today they announced a “new growth strategy” to 2030, and guided to a SHARP (-60%) drop in OP and NP to March 2025, and announced a HUUUGE Buyback. Again.

Japan – Another Big Round of Passive Selling

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.
  • Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.
  • Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.

Great Eastern (GE SP): Getting Technical

By David Blennerhassett

  • Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) has consistently traded through OCBC (OCBC SP)‘s Offer terms from the onset. 
  • OCBC did not declare its S$25.60 cash Offer final. And someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, presumably towards negotiating a bump in terms.
  • But what happens if GE’s free float falls <10% at the close of the Offer and GE is suspended? And OCBC has no intention of restoring the float?

Quiddity HSTECH Jun 24 Final Expectations: US$1.6bn One-Way; Li Auto, JD, Xiaomi, Meituan, & Tencent

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • The final results for the June 2024 index rebal event will be confirmed after market close on Friday 17th May 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our latest flow expectations.

Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Final Expectations: 2 Changes Likely; US$496mn One-Way Flow

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • The index changes and indicative weights for the June 2024 index rebal event will be announced after market close on Friday 17th May 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and our latest flow expectations.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q24, Main Business Began to Grow
  • Tencent (700 HK): 1Q24, Highest Margin in Seven Years
  • Intel’s Foundry Chief Runs For The Hills
  • Tencent: Online Advertising and High-Margin Businesses Support Earnings
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Cheerwin – Number One Provider of Mosquito Repellents in China
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Rich in Initiatives
  • Bajaj Finance (BAF): Strengthening Franchise to Sustain Growth Longevity
  • Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Ups Stake As Shares Waver
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-May-2024): Taiwan announces IC Taiwan Grand Challenge Competition.
  • GHCL Textile Q4 FY24 Update


Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q24, Main Business Began to Grow

By Ming Lu

  • Customer management as the largest business began to increase compared to the past two stagnant quarters.
  • We believe margin will continue to decline as the company turned its focus to growth.
  • We conclude an upside of 41% for March 2025 based on peer companies’ P/S ratios.

Tencent (700 HK): 1Q24, Highest Margin in Seven Years

By Ming Lu

  • The operating margin in 1Q24 reached the highest since 2Q16, as the gross margins of all businesses improved.
  • The growth rate of online advertising is high than our estimate, but the growth rate of FinTech is lower than our estimate.
  • We believe there is still an upside of 9% and the price target will be HK$415 for the end of 2024.

Intel’s Foundry Chief Runs For The Hills

By William Keating

  • In a surprise move, Intel announced that its foundry chief Stuart Pann is to retire from the company effective end of May after just over one year in the role
  • He will be replaced by former IBM, Globalfoundries and Marvell executive Kevin O’Buckley, effective immediately
  • Mr. O’Buckley now has the dubious distinction of being the third leader of IFS in as many years. 

Tencent: Online Advertising and High-Margin Businesses Support Earnings

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent (700 HK) reported 1Q2024 results today. Both revenues and OP grew 6.3% and 30.0% YoY respectively and beat consensus estimates.
  • Though domestic games revenues declined YoY, there were signs of recovery in Tencent’s gaming business. Online advertising saw strong growth despite 1Q being a seasonally weak quarter for Tencent.
  • Tencent’s investments in high-margin products have helped boost the company’s margins across all business segments.

Asian Dividend Gems: Cheerwin – Number One Provider of Mosquito Repellents in China

By Douglas Kim

  • Cheerwin is a strong turnaround story with significant earnings growth in 2023 with solid dividend yield. It is the number one player in the inspect repellent sector in China. 
  • Cheerwin’s current price is 79% lower than the IPO  price. However, Cheerwin’s shares are up 35% YTD, sharply outperforming Hang Seng index which is up 13.6% YTD.
  • We found Cheerwin (6601 HK) using Smartkarma’s Smart Score Screener system. We used the following screening methodology: Market cap – More than $300 million Dividends = 5 only.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Rich in Initiatives

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab‘s focus last year was offering more affordable products, which helped to increase its addressable market. FY2024 will see the rollout of a broader range of initiatives across economic segments. 
  • This year Grab is rolling out more premium offerings and new initiatives, including advance bookings, family accounts, increased reviews, and new merchant features to grow revenue streams from advertising.
  • The upcoming results are likely to reflect seasonal factors but should also reveal something about Grab’s new initiatives and the changing competitive environment, with GoTo investing more aggressively. 

Bajaj Finance (BAF): Strengthening Franchise to Sustain Growth Longevity

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • BAF reported a decent Q4FY24 led by strong AUM growth and robust customer acquisition. Adjusted for the impact of the regulatory ban, Q4FY24 results were in line with the expectation.  
  • The biggest negative surprise in Q4FY24 was the 21bp NIM compression. NIM compressed led by AUM composition shifting incrementally to secured assets. 
  • BAF is optimistic on growth across segments, except Rural B2C where risk metrics are somewhat elevated; however this should normalize, given Rural B2B is doing fine.

Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Ups Stake As Shares Waver

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in June 2022, US/Europe toll-road play Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLIX) rejected IFM Global Infrastructure’s request for limited company information, before deciding whether to submit a non-binding indicative proposal. 
  • Undeterred, IFM, which held 15% of shares out at the time, bumped its stake to 19% two months later; and has continued to capitalise on Australia’s creep provisions ever since. 
  • This morning, IFM is understood to have lifted its stake to ~26.5%, in an apparent attempt to gain additional board representation. Another tilt cannot be ruled out. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-May-2024): Taiwan announces IC Taiwan Grand Challenge Competition.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Taiwan launches IC Taiwan Grand Challenge to attract innovative teams and talent, offering opportunities to showcase skills and win prizes.
  • Navigating AI investments during upgrades: on-premise or cloud computing? Make informed choices for hardware and software advancements.
  • Taiwan’s LEO satellite program readiness questioned; virtual power plants used in Taiwan and Japan to mitigate earthquake risks; TPCA partners with Taiwanese industry association to boost talent and supply chains for Thai electronics manufacturing growth; Intel appoints new head of foundry services.

GHCL Textile Q4 FY24 Update

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • GHCL Textiles (GHCLTEXT IN)  Aiming 25-30% revenue growth along with 15-20% average margins significantly increase the profitability of the company.
  • Entering into value-added products like Functional fabrics and setting up their own manufacturing plant for fabric.
  • Management Guidance on yarn prices, capex and debt profile of the company.

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