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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Most Read: Daidoh Ltd, ASICS Corp, Doosan Bobcat Inc, Hyundai Motor India , Kokusai Electric , Altium Ltd, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, MMG and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activists Sell ALL Their Daidoh (3205) In One Day. Oops 😬
  • HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking
  • ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering
  • Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?
  • ASICS (7936) | Obadele Thompson or Usain Bolt?
  • Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Asia Cement, Hanwha Corp, Kokusai Electric, Keisei Electric
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Second Chance Properties, Shinsung Tongsang, Rex Minerals, Canvest, Altium
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Sell-Off Could Accelerate This Week, But It’s A BUY
  • MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue – 98.18% Taken Up


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activists Sell ALL Their Daidoh (3205) In One Day. Oops 😬

By Travis Lundy

  • Daidoh Ltd (3205 JP) saw an activist “win” at its AGM, another activist bought, the stock popped. I wrote about it. 2hrs later, the Board set a new Div Policy.
  • ¥100/Yr for 3 years in a row. That was 11% of then-current price. Big activist win for Strategic Capital which owned 25% and Murakami-san who had gone substantial 1wk earlier.
  • Today post-close, Strategic Capital reported it sold everything on 5 July, the next day. WOW. That was half of Maximum Real World Float. Oops. Murakami-san sold too. 

HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, ASICS Corp (7936 JP) announced a very large secondary offering. It points out that as a global brand, it needs global-standard corporate governance. 
  • As such, it says they’ve been discussing sales with crossholders. But we knew the cross-holders were going to sell. This offering is 85mm shares, ¥210bn at last. That’s big. 
  • The stock has doubled year-to-date. Today they raised FY guidance BIGLY (+60% OP and NP). Now a huge offering. This seems like a “feed the ducks when they’re quacking” situation.

ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 85.0 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY218 billion (US$1.4 billion).
  • Asics’ goal with the secondary offering is to eliminate cross-shareholdings. Asics also announced a material upgrade to full-year forecasts to offset the impact of the offering.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 23 and 26 July (likely 23 July).

Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 11 July, the Doosan Group announced a major business structure reorganization, including the delisting of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).
  • In our view (over the next 3-6 months), these transactions appear to be value-destroying for Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Enerbility minority shareholders but positive for Doosan Robotics shareholders.
  • Doosan Robotics plans to acquire the remaining 54% stake in Doosan Bobcat through a tender offer. Once Doosan Robotics fully owns Doosan Bobcat, its shares will be delisted.

ASICS (7936) | Obadele Thompson or Usain Bolt?

By Mark Chadwick

  • ASICS is revising up its full year forecasts, now expecting sales to reach a record ¥660 billion , up 15.7% year-over-year. There is a strong currency tail wind. 
  • Still “you gotta be in it to win it..”  ASICS is currently crushing it, while Nike flounders
  • A large secondary offering will likely hit the share price in the short term; there are two key risks…but it could be a good opportunity to buy. 

Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN), a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor (005385 KS), aims to raise up to US$3.0 billion at a valuation of US$17 billion. 
  • HMIL is India’s second largest passenger vehicle manufacturer, as measured by domestic passenger vehicle sales. It serves as Hyundai’s production and export hub for emerging markets.
  • The bull case rests on a strong market position, premiumisation-led growth, top-quartile operating and FCF margin profile. 

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Asia Cement, Hanwha Corp, Kokusai Electric, Keisei Electric

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Toyota Group cross-holding ecosystem is in flux. They started with a small announcement by Aisin (7259 JP) but moves have come fast and furious.
  • Apparently minorities are grumbling to the SFC about the low-balled Offer for Asia Cement China (743 HK). And for good reason. The best course of action? Vote against the Scheme.
  • Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) is trading at a steep NAV discount. And the controlling family is making  a partial Offer to gain majority control. 

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Second Chance Properties, Shinsung Tongsang, Rex Minerals, Canvest, Altium

By David Blennerhassett


EQD | KOSPI 200 Sell-Off Could Accelerate This Week, But It’s A BUY

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX started a modest pullback and is entering a BUY area, but it could fall further this coming week, caution is advised.
  • The support levels to buy are between 383-371, this coming week.
  • Alternatively buy the Close, if the WEEKLY Close is negative, next Friday.

MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue – 98.18% Taken Up

By Rikki Malik

  • While there may be still be some overhang once the rights shares start trading, this is a good entry point
  • Applications for 6.4 Billion excess rights shares received from 11 applications
  • Rights shares will start trading on Tuesday 16th of July

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers


Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers

By Victor Galliano

  • Management is targeting a USD40bn IPO valuation for Revolut; the last funding round in 2021 valued it at USD33bn, but current year investor valuations have ranged from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn
  • We provide key fintech and bank ratios for the UK digital banks; Revolut is more an FX paytech with a small loan book; Starling is a more “balanced” digital bank
  • Relative to its UK unlisted peers and select listed digital peers, Revolut’s target IPO valuation does appear to be rich; it is also still seeking a UK bank licence

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Time To Look Abroad? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time To Look Abroad?


Time To Look Abroad?

By Douglas Busch

  • US markets suffered a bearish reversal on CPI data. Time look to elsewhere?
  • China looks to be bottoming. Could the region begin to show relative strength?
  • Emerging markets look particularly attractive especially if the dollar trades lower.

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Daily Brief ESG: Rino Mastrotto – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Rino Mastrotto – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Rino Mastrotto – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Rino Mastrotto’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Governance scores, while the Social score is “Strong”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. 


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Uranium Stocks Surge on Kazakh Taxes and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Uranium Stocks Surge on Kazakh Taxes
  • [WASDE Preview] Bounty Harvest of US Wheat & Corn; But Brace for Weak EU Forecast
  • #29 India Insight: VI Bank Guarantee, Adani Ports Commits $1.2 Bn, Brookfield Investment
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 12/07/2024
  • Consumer Tales & Trends #July 1-10: Korea Coffee War, Crazy Rich Asians & More


Uranium Stocks Surge on Kazakh Taxes

By Money of Mine

  • News out of Kazakhstan regarding increased mineral extraction tax for uranium mining
  • Impact on global uranium supply and term pricing
  • Uranium equities in Australia experiencing significant price increase

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


[WASDE Preview] Bounty Harvest of US Wheat & Corn; But Brace for Weak EU Forecast

By Amrutha Raj

  • June witnessed heavy selling across major US crops across corn, beans and wheat with wheat taking the biggest hit.
  • Grain prices have been bearish on favorable supply. The adage of ‘rain makes grain’ has changed this summer to ‘grain falls like rain’ ahead of WASDE report.
  • Positive revisions are expected for major Wheat exporting countries US & Russia, even as EU reels from adverse weather. US grain forecasts will follow suit and outweigh concerns

#29 India Insight: VI Bank Guarantee, Adani Ports Commits $1.2 Bn, Brookfield Investment

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Vodafone Idea requests Rs.24,747 crore bank guarantee waiver for spectrum payments from DoT
  • Brookfield invests $550 million in Tamil Nadu’s Leap Green Energy for renewable growth
  • Adani Ports commits $1.2 billion to Vizhinjam, Kerala’s future container transshipment hub

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 12/07/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • PetroTal (PTAL LN/CN)C; Target price of £1.50 per share: Unrestricted cash position increased by >30% during the last quarter – 2Q24 production of 18,290 bbl/d was very near our forecasts of 18.5 mbbl/d but marginally below the company target of ~19 mbbl/d.
  • A brief river blockade impacted production but production in June was 20,555 bbl/d.
  • All regulatory approvals for the pilot to sell 100 mbbl of production through Ecuador have now been secured.

Consumer Tales & Trends #July 1-10: Korea Coffee War, Crazy Rich Asians & More

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
  • Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) dives into Korea’s coffee war zone with a new acquisition. But with expensive funding, selling cheap coffee isn’t so cool anymore.
  • Tiger Balm, the beloved pain relief elixir, is under valued in its holding-company, HawPar Corp . In an aging world full of aches, it’s time to let Tiger Balm roar!

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci


Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking
  • ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering


HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, ASICS Corp (7936 JP) announced a very large secondary offering. It points out that as a global brand, it needs global-standard corporate governance. 
  • As such, it says they’ve been discussing sales with crossholders. But we knew the cross-holders were going to sell. This offering is 85mm shares, ¥210bn at last. That’s big. 
  • The stock has doubled year-to-date. Today they raised FY guidance BIGLY (+60% OP and NP). Now a huge offering. This seems like a “feed the ducks when they’re quacking” situation.

ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 85.0 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY218 billion (US$1.4 billion).
  • Asics’ goal with the secondary offering is to eliminate cross-shareholdings. Asics also announced a material upgrade to full-year forecasts to offset the impact of the offering.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 23 and 26 July (likely 23 July).

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Kobe Bussan (3038): The Final Cliff and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Kobe Bussan (3038): The Final Cliff
  • The Beat Ideas- Petronet LNG: Driving Growth in India’s Natural Gas Sector
  • [Q2 Earnings Preview] TSMC: All Eyes on 2nm Chips, Fab Expansion & Continued Earnings Beat
  • Delfi Ltd (DELFI SP) – The Chameleon of Confectionary
  • DPC Dash (1405 HK): Strong 2Q Data Pointing to Underappreciated Growth and Margin Potential
  • ASICS (7936) | Obadele Thompson or Usain Bolt?
  • Cutting-Edge Drugmaker Biokin Taps Hong Kong Market to Fund Foray Aboard
  • Softbank (9984 JP): Arm Headwinds Building, but NAV Discount Is Attractive
  • Van Eck Junior Gold Miners Etf (Gdxj) – Friday, Apr 12, 2024
  • Will Hesai Group Announce Its First-Ever Buyback To Restore Confidence in the Stock?


Kobe Bussan (3038): The Final Cliff

By Michael Allen

  • Kobe Bussan continues to hit new lows relative to the median Japanese retailer, as cheaper alternatives continue to rebound.
  • Kobe was one of the greatest beneficiaries in Japan of the Pandemic, but it is stuck at 10% growth which is no longer unusual. 
  • Kobe’s wholesale model makes it difficult to benefit from food price inflation like other food retailers. Kobe Bussan could drop another 50% before reaching fair value.

The Beat Ideas- Petronet LNG: Driving Growth in India’s Natural Gas Sector

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Currently, the share of natural gas in energy basket is just 6.7%, Which India is aiming for 15% by 2030.
  • Capex in Place- expanding the Dahej Plant, Petchem facility(20000Cr) will be operational in 4-5 years, Kochi utilization will improve
  • 20% Volume Growth expected by Management, with a rising LNG portion in overall Gas Consumption in India.

[Q2 Earnings Preview] TSMC: All Eyes on 2nm Chips, Fab Expansion & Continued Earnings Beat

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • TSMC’s June 2024 revenue increased by 32.9% YoY, exceeding expectations with $6.42 billion. 
  • It dominates with >62% of the global foundry market share, propelled by AI demand. 
  • Expansion into the automotive market and new fabs in the U.S. and Japan highlight TSMC’s growth strategy. 

Delfi Ltd (DELFI SP) – The Chameleon of Confectionary

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Delfi Ltd (DELFI SP) is Asia’s largest confectioner, with circa 50% market share of chocolate in its largest market Indonesia, despite competition from global confectionary players over many years. 
  • The company produces products that are engrained in local tastes but it also produces products in different categories that compete directly with foreign competitors with a local twist. 
  • The negative headwinds from higher cocoa prices have started to stabilise and Delfi has deployed various strategies to offset the impact on packaging and ingredients. 

DPC Dash (1405 HK): Strong 2Q Data Pointing to Underappreciated Growth and Margin Potential

By Eric Chen

  • The company’ share bucked China catering sector’s down trend and rallied 30% in last few weeks.
  • Its 2Q operating data suggest that its store opening is well on track with healthy SSSG, underpinning strong margin expansion.
  • We believe that market still underestimates its growth and earnings potential which could beat consensus by wide margin. Interim results to be announced in August will be key catalyst.

ASICS (7936) | Obadele Thompson or Usain Bolt?

By Mark Chadwick

  • ASICS is revising up its full year forecasts, now expecting sales to reach a record ¥660 billion , up 15.7% year-over-year. There is a strong currency tail wind. 
  • Still “you gotta be in it to win it..”  ASICS is currently crushing it, while Nike flounders
  • A large secondary offering will likely hit the share price in the short term; there are two key risks…but it could be a good opportunity to buy. 

Cutting-Edge Drugmaker Biokin Taps Hong Kong Market to Fund Foray Aboard

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese innovative drugmaker Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. has filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering (IPO) in an effort to tap fresh funding to support new drug development and overseas expansion.
  • Biokin, already listed in Shanghai, did not disclose the target size of its Hong Kong offering. According to its preliminary prospectus, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Citic Securities Co. Ltd. are joint sponsors for the share sale.
  • Founded in 1996, Biokin began as a producer of chemical generic drugs and proprietary Chinese medicines. The company has since 2011 moved on to novel biological drugs, focusing on antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) for cancer treatment.

Softbank (9984 JP): Arm Headwinds Building, but NAV Discount Is Attractive

By Victor Galliano

  • Since Elliott Management emerged as a shareholder in SoftBank group last month, the share price has rallied sharply, largely driven by the further appreciation of the Arm Holding share price
  • SoftBank management is currently focused on growing its Gen AI investment portfolio and appears to have shelved share buybacks for now, which is likely to disappoint minority shareholders
  • Despite the above challenges and the risk of de-rating at Arm, we remain positive on Softbank shares as they trade at a historically high 54%+ discount to the estimated NAV

Van Eck Junior Gold Miners Etf (Gdxj) – Friday, Apr 12, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Gold currently trades at a historic 50% discount to its long-term value
  • Gold miners are trading at a 30-60% discount to gold, presenting an investment opportunity
  • Investing in GDXJ and a basket of gold miners can potentially yield high returns due to the supply dynamics of gold

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Will Hesai Group Announce Its First-Ever Buyback To Restore Confidence in the Stock?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Hesai Group shares significantly underperformed in 2024 with shares down ~47% over the year versus a ~23% gain on the Nasdaq Composite.
  • Moreover, a San Francisco-based Ouster, one of the key competitors among LiDAR makers, outperformed Hesai Group and the NASDAQ on a year-to-date basis.
  • I believe Hesai Group should initiate a share buyback program as RoboSense has recently announced on-market share repurchase plan to create value for its shareholders.  

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activists Sell ALL Their Daidoh (3205) In One Day. Oops 😬 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activists Sell ALL Their Daidoh (3205) In One Day. Oops 😬
  • Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?
  • SK Innovation & SK E&S: Summary of the Controversy Surrounding the Merger Ratio
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Sell-Off Could Accelerate This Week, But It’s A BUY


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activists Sell ALL Their Daidoh (3205) In One Day. Oops 😬

By Travis Lundy

  • Daidoh Ltd (3205 JP) saw an activist “win” at its AGM, another activist bought, the stock popped. I wrote about it. 2hrs later, the Board set a new Div Policy.
  • ¥100/Yr for 3 years in a row. That was 11% of then-current price. Big activist win for Strategic Capital which owned 25% and Murakami-san who had gone substantial 1wk earlier.
  • Today post-close, Strategic Capital reported it sold everything on 5 July, the next day. WOW. That was half of Maximum Real World Float. Oops. Murakami-san sold too. 

Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 11 July, the Doosan Group announced a major business structure reorganization, including the delisting of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).
  • In our view (over the next 3-6 months), these transactions appear to be value-destroying for Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Enerbility minority shareholders but positive for Doosan Robotics shareholders.
  • Doosan Robotics plans to acquire the remaining 54% stake in Doosan Bobcat through a tender offer. Once Doosan Robotics fully owns Doosan Bobcat, its shares will be delisted.

SK Innovation & SK E&S: Summary of the Controversy Surrounding the Merger Ratio

By Sanghyun Park

  • Interest in this merger is emerging from an unexpected angle, especially regarding the merger ratio’s fairness. There’s a risk it could unfavorably affect SK Innovation’s stock price.
  • SK Innovation at ₩108,000/share; SK E&S at ₩290,000/share based on strong profits. SK plans ratios around 1.3x total value and 2.7x per share. SK Inc may reach mid-70% stake post-merger.
  • SK Innovation’s stock may face short-term decline. Securing shareholder approval, with SK Inc at 36%, overseas investors 22%, local institutions 15%, local retail 20%, and NPS 7%, poses challenges.

EQD | KOSPI 200 Sell-Off Could Accelerate This Week, But It’s A BUY

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX started a modest pullback and is entering a BUY area, but it could fall further this coming week, caution is advised.
  • The support levels to buy are between 383-371, this coming week.
  • Alternatively buy the Close, if the WEEKLY Close is negative, next Friday.

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Daily Brief Macro: CPI Review: Gung Ho summer! Risk-off fall? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • CPI Review: Gung Ho summer! Risk-off fall?
  • Liquidity watch: Two major waves of liquidity left this year of varying quality
  • CX Daily: Are AI-Powered Learning Gadgets Ready to Be at the Head of the Class?
  • China: Weakness of Residential Property Market Spills to Banking Sector
  • HEW: Doves Ticking Boxes
  • Labor Watch: This doesn’t exactly scream recession (yet) …
  • US CPI Inflation 2.97% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Jun-24
  • Will Presidential Election Cycle Theory Fuel Continued US Equities Rally in 2H 2024?


CPI Review: Gung Ho summer! Risk-off fall?

By Andreas Steno

  • The inflation report provides a surprisingly soft set of data, aligning perfectly with the FOMC’s hopes, but not with their predictions.
  • Back in June, the FOMC projected only one rate cut while hiking the inflation forecast to levels that now seem feasible to undershoot.
  • This report, as soft as it gets, shows transportation services down by 0.5% for the month, and shelter prices have only increased by 0.17% MoM.

Liquidity watch: Two major waves of liquidity left this year of varying quality

By Andreas Steno

  • While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year.
  • The important part of the analysis is to understand why liquidity is moving, not just if it is moving.
  • Depending on the type of liquidity additions/withdrawals, the quality of the liquidity signal improves/worsens as a driver of asset markets.

CX Daily: Are AI-Powered Learning Gadgets Ready to Be at the Head of the Class?

By Caixin Global

  • AI / In Depth: Are AI-powered learning gadgets ready to be at the head of the class?
  • Food safety /: Processing firm says it is a ‘victim’ of contaminated cooking oil scandal
  • Property /Land:  sales slashed by more than a third in first half of 2024 as real estate slump bites

China: Weakness of Residential Property Market Spills to Banking Sector

By Alex Ng

  • China authorities appear to have the financial stability spill over from the property sector , through a combination of direct support for housing and forced mergers of weak banks. 
  • This game plan will likely be followed for the next few years. However, this all means residential property investment will be an economic headwind to growth for years to come. 
  • Problems will remain multi year and will hangover weaker developers/LGFV’s/banks and non-banks.

HEW: Doves Ticking Boxes

By Phil Rush

  • Voters are clear about their rejection of Rassemblement National in France, and central bankers are anticipating rate cuts in September (Fed and ECB) and August (BoE).
  • The upcoming ECB meeting is expected to confirm this anticipated step without making a commitment, after considering the final HICP print.
  • The UK’s inflation and labour market data are the most crucial factors to inform the decision in August, following June’s finely balanced decision.

Labor Watch: This doesn’t exactly scream recession (yet) …

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Welcome to this short labor market watch on the back of this week’s NFIB and CPI numbers.
  • Currently the labor market has softened considerably from tight conditions in 2022, yet there is still some time before this slowdown potentially leads to a recession.
  • From the NFIB numbers we already got more hints of the deflationary trends suggested by this month’s CPI report as price plans continue their decrease.

US CPI Inflation 2.97% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Jun-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • US CPI inflation for June 2024 is 2.97% y-o-y, which is below the consensus and shows successfully moderating inflationary pressures.
  • Core inflation is higher at 3.3%, but the monthly impulse has reassuringly slowed to 0.1%.
  • Mixed PPI trends indicate some price pressures persist, but the Fed is increasingly likely to cut in September.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Will Presidential Election Cycle Theory Fuel Continued US Equities Rally in 2H 2024?

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Yale Hirsch’s Presidential Election Cycle theory posits that US equities perform best in third year followed by the election year. Equities are weakest in the year following the election.
  • Over 6 decades, the S&P500 delivered positive returns in thirteen of sixteen election years. On average, the index returned 4.1% during 1H followed by 3.2% in 2H.
  • Forget this theory, markets are pricing an 88% chance of rates being slashed starting Sep. Citi analysts expect 200bps of cuts over 8 meetings. Euphoric markets will go on steroids.

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