All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Li Auto , KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF, Dentsu Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSTECH June 2024 Rebal – No Changes But Big Capping Flows, As Expected; 8% US$1.6bn One-Way
  • Red Dragon Awakening
  • Dentsu Group – FY24 prospects weighted to H2


HSTECH June 2024 Rebal – No Changes But Big Capping Flows, As Expected; 8% US$1.6bn One-Way

By Travis Lundy

  • The Hang Seng Tech Index is more widely-followed than many think, and it is reasonably concentrated, so outperformance and underperformance by big names means capping and re-capping.
  • This time, those flows are worth about 8% of the index in terms of one-way flows. Meituan, Xiaomi, JD.com, Tencent and Kuaishou Tech DOWN. Li Auto back up. 
  • Those who have pre-positioned on the big buy have recently gotten hurt. There are some FAF changes which are less predictable and may be interesting.

Red Dragon Awakening

By Douglas Busch

  • China momentum continues with KWEB breaking out above WEEKLY double-bottom base
  • Stocks REPORTING this week that look technically sound include PDD BZ and EH
  • In-Depth look at individual leaders in Tencent Holdings, Futu Holdings, and Sony Group

Dentsu Group – FY24 prospects weighted to H2

By Edison Investment Research

Dentsu’s Q1 results indicate a slow start to the year, with organic net revenue down by 3.7%. However, prospects are improving, buoyed by new business wins and weighted to H2, which leave full year expectations (and our forecasts) unchanged. The One dentsu initiative, bringing together skill sets in consulting, technology, media and creative, is supporting improved pitch win rates, and giving greater coherence and consistency to the group product and service offering. We expect this to be a central element of the new management medium-term strategy, set to be unveiled during H2. The rating remains at a substantial discount to global peers, which we anticipate will narrow as evidence of renewed growth builds.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 17th): Hang Seng Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 17th): Hang Seng Bank, Swire Pacific, Wuxi Biologics
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 10th): BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 17th): Hang Seng Bank, Swire Pacific, Wuxi Biologics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 17th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past week, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 10th): BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 10th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths, Origin Energy, Xero.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ESG: Guidebook for Raising P/B Published and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Guidebook for Raising P/B Published, but Still Much Work to Be Done to Achieve Goals


Guidebook for Raising P/B Published, but Still Much Work to Be Done to Achieve Goals

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Few companies have disclosed their cost of capital, so TSE provided specific indicators for this purpose. On the other hand, allergies to cost of capital disclosure are persistent in companies.
  • It is a concern that many companies still have more fixed remuneration than variable remuneration for compensation incentives, which are a mechanism for achieving capital profitability goals like ROE.
  • Engagement with overseas investors can be effective, but there are challenges, such as the existence of passive funds and companies with small market capitalizations that are not eligible for investment.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): The Myth of a Rising Short Position by FII in Nifty: A Bottom for the Market? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • The Myth of a Rising Short Position by FII in Nifty: A Bottom for the Market?
  • Beike (BEKE US): New Government Measures Aimed at Promoting New Home Sales Warrants Attention
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES US/4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP/BABA US /BIDU US/700 HK
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 17/05/2024


The Myth of a Rising Short Position by FII in Nifty: A Bottom for the Market?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • FII short contracts are at an all-time high, in the past which signifies the bottom of the market.
  • But It’s a myth, as Number of contracts increased in Nifty due to change in lot size.
  • Data is opposite to narrative. Believe on data, Not Narrative.

Beike (BEKE US): New Government Measures Aimed at Promoting New Home Sales Warrants Attention

By Andy Fu

  • Today, multiple cities in China introduced property stimulus measures to encourage buying new over existing homes. These policies also discourages people from selling their homes.
  • Past measures encouraged home purchases by lowering mortgage rates and down payments, resulting in an increase in existing home transactions, because new home has developer default risks.
  • This time, we saw for the first time, local Chinese governments introduced supplemental policies to guide new home purchases. We believe more of such measures can be on its way.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US

By Eric Wen

  • 1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH: Xiaomi to start double-shift production of the SU7 in June (+/-/-/-/-)
  • 1810 HK/1211 HK/ LI US/ NIO US/ XPEV US: The data shows that only 2% of FSD12 users are converted to paying users, which is good for China’s automatic driving(//////////)
  • LI US / NIO US/1810 HK :Li Auto takes the lead in sales in the 18th week of 2024, while Xiaomi continues to lag behind(/////)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES US/4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP/BABA US /BIDU US/700 HK

By Ying Pan

  • NTES US : NetEase’s <Marvel Rivals> has commenced its first round of testing, with players providing positive feedback.(+)
  • 4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP: PayPay QR-code system crashed for three hours (-/+/+)
  • BABA US /BIDU US/700 HK: China’s generative AI starts price war mode, led by ByteDance and High-Flyer(/////)

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 17/05/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Spudding high impact well – Drilling operations have started at the Carrizales Norte B Pad Horizontal Well 1.
  • This is the first horizontal well drilled in the Ubaque on Tapir.
  • Three more horizontal wells will be drilled on the pad.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

By Joe Jasper

  • Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was “quite possible” the lows were in.
  • Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
  • China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Japan Post Bank – It’s like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Bank – It’s like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever
  • [Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$450) TP Change]: Market Finally Starting to Recognize Tencent’s Value
  • Eoflow: Financing Requirements, Changing Shareholding Structure, and the Next Steps
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-May-2024): AI PC term will be obsolete soon, tech titans predict at pre-Computex event.
  • JD.com (9618 HK):  1Q24 Results On Track
  • KPIT: Stellar Growth Continues
  • LIC Housing Finance (LICHF): Back on Track | All Set for a Strong FY25
  • Expedia Group: Advancements in GenAI and Personalized Travel Experiences! – Major Drivers
  • WestRock Company: Mill Closure
  • SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Resumption of US Sales Growth Raises Hope for Annual Profit


Japan Post Bank – It’s like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) saw its net profit surge from non-recurring gains, which was from the sale of stocks. 
  • The company’s cost of funds worsened more than the improvement in its yields, and we believe this remains an issue related to hedging costs.
  • Unrealized gains on foreign bonds remains significantly higher now than a year ago and this may again be the driver for earnings, but still with very low ROA.

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$450) TP Change]: Market Finally Starting to Recognize Tencent’s Value

By Ying Pan

  • Tencent reported C1Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, 9.1%, 26% vs. our estimates and in-line, 16%, 21% vs. consensus;
  • Game revenues were below our expectations while advertising was above, leading to a gross margin beat of 2.73ppt, powered by video account and AI. 
  • We raised our TP to HK$450 to reflect the shift to better-margin revenue mix and upcoming revenue acceleration.

Eoflow: Financing Requirements, Changing Shareholding Structure, and the Next Steps

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the additional financing requirements, changed shareholding structure, and the next steps for Eoflow. 
  • Eoflow is one of the best performing stocks in the Korean stock market in the past one month as its shares have soared 249% in this period.
  • The details of the oral argument (Insulet vs Eoflow) at the U.S. Appellate Court suggest that the U.S. Appellate Court may rule in favor of Eoflow.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-May-2024): AI PC term will be obsolete soon, tech titans predict at pre-Computex event.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Tech titans foresee the obsolescence of AI PC by Computex 2024, sparking anticipation for new technological advancements.
  • Disney and Warner’s collaboration in the streaming market introduces fresh competition, shaking up the industry landscape.
  • ASML’s thriving in the Angstrom Era credits its success to relentless innovation and adaptability within the semiconductor sector.

JD.com (9618 HK):  1Q24 Results On Track

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • JD.com (9618 HK) announced a set of in-line results for 1Q24.  Sales growth was 7% yoy, in-line with my 1Q24 preview.
  • Operating profit margin for the core JD retail business declined by 0.5ppt yoy to 4.1%, which is also in-line with my preview. 
  • The positive surprise was a big reduction in losses in the JD logistics business, which brought the overall non-GAAP net profit growth to 17% yoy for 1Q24. 

KPIT: Stellar Growth Continues

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • KPIT reported a strong Q4FY24 led by 5.1% QoQ revenue growth in constant currency (CC) terms. EBITDA margin came in better than expected at 20.7%.
  • Overall, in line with our projection, KPIT even beat its upgraded guidance by posting YoY revenue growth of 39%+ in CC terms vs 37%+ guided.
  • KPIT has guided for a strong FY25 with revenue guidance of 18-22% in CC terms and EBITDA margin of 20.5%+.

LIC Housing Finance (LICHF): Back on Track | All Set for a Strong FY25

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • LICHF faced some teething issues with technology during past 1Y due to which growth and reported asset quality had been subdued. However, with strong Q4FY24, LICHF is back on track.
  • LICHF reported strong growth in disbursements. Q4FY24 disbursements were INR 18200cr+, a growth of 20%+ QoQ. NIM came in higher than expected at 3.15%, despite spike in bond yields.
  • Asset quality improved significantly with Stage 3 assets declining to 3.31% vs 4.26% QoQ and Stage 2 assets declining to 4.20% vs 4.54% QoQ.

Expedia Group: Advancements in GenAI and Personalized Travel Experiences! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Expedia Group’s Q1 2024 performance reflected a primarily healthy market environment, but growth differed according to geographical area and product line.
  • Notably, North America had the slowest growth compared to other major international markets.
  • Additionally, despite meeting projections on revenue and EBITDA, Expedia experienced weaker gross bookings, with its Vrbo business producing slower recovery than anticipated.

WestRock Company: Mill Closure

By Baptista Research

  • WestRock Company, in the 3rd Fiscal Quarter 2023, posted a net sales of $5.1 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $802 million, higher than expected due to strong execution, productivity gains, and moderating input costs.
  • CEO David Sewell attributed the strong results to the firm’s resilience and the hard work of its team, even as they faced comparisons with record results from the prior year quarter.
  • However, certain challenges were also observed.

SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Resumption of US Sales Growth Raises Hope for Annual Profit

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 1Q24, SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS) posted Xcopri U.S. sales of KRW90.9B, up 69% YoY and 17% QoQ. The company remains confident to meet annual sales guidance of KRW390–416B.
  • 1Q24 operating profit reached KRW10B from an operating loss of KRW23B in 1Q23. The company aims to achieve profitability throughout 2024.
  • The company is seeking a second product to strengthen its U.S. and global business. Xcopri also has potential for indication expansion in near future.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: Naspers X Prosus (NPN and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Naspers X Prosus (NPN, PRX): Market Reacts Negatively to Appointment of CEO
  • EQD | The Nikkei Can Go Higher From Here


Naspers X Prosus (NPN, PRX): Market Reacts Negatively to Appointment of CEO

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Naspers and Prosus have announced the appointment of Fabrício Bloisi as Group CEO, effective from 1 July 2024. Unlike his predecessor, Bloisi has an entrepreneurial background.
  • Prosus and Naspers have sold off on the news. Prosus is down 1.7%, widening the discount by 80bps. Naspers is down 1.3%, widening the discount by 50bps.
  • Since Bob van Dijk stepped down in September last year, both discounts have narrowed.

EQD | The Nikkei Can Go Higher From Here

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 INDEX has been rallying a bit last week and closed the week up. A rebound from the previous downtrend is underway.
  • A temporary bottom may have been established in May, it is not clear if the index is about to go lower or higher, but our pattern model readings suggests higher.
  • If the index continues to rally, the first major resistance area will be around 40k.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Macro: Long 10Y and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Long 10Y, Short 2Y on Yield Curve Normalisation
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 17 May 2024
  • Harvest Headwinds: Extreme Weather and Wheat’s Price Surge
  • EA Inflation Eases ECB Cut in June
  • HEW: Resilient Data Test Dependency


Long 10Y, Short 2Y on Yield Curve Normalisation

By Pranay Yadav

  • Fed’s decision to taper its balance sheet runoff has provided support to long-term treasuries, particularly 10-year notes, signaling a potential rise in demand and a move towards yield curve normalization.
  • Recent treasury auction results reflect a divergence in demand across maturities; long-term 10-year treasuries show weaker performance compared to strong showings in shorter 3-year and 5-year maturities.
  • Data-Dependent Fed is likely to be influenced by improving economic indicators, supporting a normalization of the yield curve. During normalization, the 10Y-2Y spread is the superior instrument for exposure. 

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 17 May 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • US Inflation and Interest Rates: The US CPI for April met expectations, triggering a stock rally, but detailed figures suggest inflation remains high, casting doubt on imminent Fed rate cuts.

  • Japan’s Economic Contraction: Japan’s GDP contracted by -2% annualized in Q1, marking the third consecutive quarter without growth, yet interest rate hikes are still expected despite the economic downturn.

  • Indonesia’s Steady Growth: Indonesia reported a consistent 5.1% GDP growth for Q1, in line with expectations and historical performance, though the economy remains below its potential growth rate compared to peers like India and the Philippines.


Harvest Headwinds: Extreme Weather and Wheat’s Price Surge

By Pranay Yadav

  • Wheat prices are experiencing a significant resurgence due to extreme weather events and global supply-demand imbalances. Price is 22% higher over the past month. 
  • May WASDE report indicates a positive outlook for global wheat production despite recent weather challenges, suggesting potential underestimations in global supply disruptions. 
  • The anticipated shift to La Niña, coupled with historically low stocks-to-use ratios, threatens global wheat supply, heightening the potential for increased market volatility and price spikes.

EA Inflation Eases ECB Cut in June

By Phil Rush

  • The final EA HICP inflation print confirmed the unsurprising stability at 2.4% in the April flash release. Energy price base effects will probably push it higher again in May.
  • Underlying inflationary pressures have continued falling, with most statistical measures under 3% y-o-y with monthly impulses at or slightly below the ECB’s target.
  • Like the consensus, we expect inflation to stay close to 2%. This outlook and subdued underlying pressures will likely ease the ECB’s decision to start cutting rates in June.

HEW: Resilient Data Test Dependency

By Phil Rush

  • UK wage data continues to surpass expectations, however, the Bank of England remains unfazed. There are concerns that premature rate cuts could lead to a financial bubble and policy reversal, akin to the situation in 1998. The UK does not benefit from the Euro Area’s disinflationary data.
  • The upcoming week will be dominated by monetary policy speeches and rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Indonesia, Korea, and Chile.
  • UK inflation data is the macro highlight of the week, with expectations aligning with the current CPI consensus. The release of Thursday’s flash PMIs is also of significance.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Singapore: Sea and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

By Joe Jasper

  • Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was “quite possible” the lows were in.
  • Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
  • China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief South Korea: Eoflow, SK Biopharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Eoflow: Financing Requirements, Changing Shareholding Structure, and the Next Steps
  • SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Resumption of US Sales Growth Raises Hope for Annual Profit


Eoflow: Financing Requirements, Changing Shareholding Structure, and the Next Steps

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the additional financing requirements, changed shareholding structure, and the next steps for Eoflow. 
  • Eoflow is one of the best performing stocks in the Korean stock market in the past one month as its shares have soared 249% in this period.
  • The details of the oral argument (Insulet vs Eoflow) at the U.S. Appellate Court suggest that the U.S. Appellate Court may rule in favor of Eoflow.

SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Resumption of US Sales Growth Raises Hope for Annual Profit

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 1Q24, SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS) posted Xcopri U.S. sales of KRW90.9B, up 69% YoY and 17% QoQ. The company remains confident to meet annual sales guidance of KRW390–416B.
  • 1Q24 operating profit reached KRW10B from an operating loss of KRW23B in 1Q23. The company aims to achieve profitability throughout 2024.
  • The company is seeking a second product to strengthen its U.S. and global business. Xcopri also has potential for indication expansion in near future.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars