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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ECM: MODEC (6296 JP): The Current Playbook and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • MODEC (6296 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Raspberry Pi IPO Preview
  • AUB Group Placement – Good Track Record, Accretive Acquisition


MODEC (6296 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$535 million secondary placement announcement, Modec Inc (6269 JP)’s shares are down 15% from the undisturbed price of JPY3,320 per share (14 May).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Modec’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 22 May. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Raspberry Pi IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Established in 2012, Raspberry Pi is getting ready to complete its IPO in London soon. Raspberry Pi provides small, single-board computers. 
  • Raspberry Pi is backed by Sony and ARM Holdings. Nearly 72% of the company’s sales come from commercial customers embedding its products into various consumer devices and other systems. 
  • The company generated sales of US$265.8 million (up 41.5% YoY) and operating profit of US$37.5 million (up 87% YoY) in 2023. 

AUB Group Placement – Good Track Record, Accretive Acquisition

By Sumeet Singh

  • AUB Group Limited (AUB AU) is looking to raise up to AUD200m (US$133m) to fund the acquisition of Pacific Indemnity.
  • The company has a good track record and the deal will be accretive to EPS.
  • In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

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Daily Brief Credit: JSW Steel – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • JSW Steel – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics


JSW Steel – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

While JSW Steel’s Q4/23-24 results were soft in our view, the full-year numbers were decent. Operational stats remained robust. The share of value-added products was high and continued to increase. The financial risk profile was unchanged q-o-q, but improved significantly from FYE 2022-23. However, liquidity deteriorated and was barely adequate.

We expect a stronger FY 2024-25 with higher revenue and earnings, as the steel operating environment appears to have bottomed out. Steel prices should remain stable, with possible upside. That said, the higher earnings could be offset by an increase in debt to cover the large and growing capex.


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Daily Brief Crypto: Attention Is All You Need and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Attention Is All You Need
  • A Bullish Beat Down For BTC Bears


Attention Is All You Need

By Delphi Digital

  • Meme Coins Reflect Disillusionment: Emerging from distrust in traditional finance, meme coins leverage cultural relevance for adoption.
  • Attention Drives Crypto Value: Memes and narratives shape crypto value, emphasizing the importance of attention.
  • AI Disrupts Attention Economy: AI threatens traditional distribution channels, making crypto a potential solution.

A Bullish Beat Down For BTC Bears

By Delphi Digital

  • ETH ETF Approval Odds Soar: Bloomberg increases ETH spot ETF approval odds from 25% to 75%, shaking up the crypto market.
  • BTC ETF Inflows Rebound: BTC ETF inflows revive, marking the first consecutive positive flow days in over a month, signaling bullish potential.
  • Bullish BTC Momentum: BTC holds above $65K, showing bullish market structure with potential for retesting $71K-$72K amidst improving ETF flows.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: A Plausible Explanation for Korea NPS’s Unusually Large Outflow on Local Stocks in May and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • A Plausible Explanation for Korea NPS’s Unusually Large Outflow on Local Stocks in May
  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Murakami Now 29% of Mitsui Matsushima. Activism? Or Effort to Make Murakami Listco
  • StubWorld: Bloisi’s Appointment Stalls The Prosus Accretion Trade
  • KOSPI Size Indices: Potential Migrations in September Are Moving
  • HKTV (1137 HK): $2.15/Share Buy-Back
  • Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Jun 24: Hellofresh MDAX Deletion Hinges on Encavis Tender Offer Result


A Plausible Explanation for Korea NPS’s Unusually Large Outflow on Local Stocks in May

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS’s May net selling of ₩700B likely stems from retrieving outsourced management funds to allocate to the newly selected three value-up outsider managers.
  • These value-up managers will start investing in Q3. NPS’s May net selling matches their allocations. We should design a setup targeting the likely inflow into value-up targets starting early July.
  • In particular, we should watch non-financial value-up stocks like Kia Corp and Hyundai Motor, which had more significant May price impacts likely due to NPS outflow.

JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Murakami Now 29% of Mitsui Matsushima. Activism? Or Effort to Make Murakami Listco

By Travis Lundy

  • Noted Japanese activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki and his entities and relations went from 4.98% to 19.88% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) at an average ¥3,500/share from 2 May through 10 May.
  • Then they bought an additional 5.44% on 13 May, just before earnings, in the midst of a huge run-up, paying 40% more for that 5% than the first 5%. 
  • I thought that might be the end, but in two days, they have bought an additional 9+%. There is something else going on. It is worthy of your attention. 

StubWorld: Bloisi’s Appointment Stalls The Prosus Accretion Trade

By David Blennerhassett

  • Prosus (PRX NA)‘s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi’s CEO appointment late last week. But the sell-down of Tencent (700 HK) to buy-back Prosus will  continue. 
  • Preceding my comments on Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus/Tencent are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

KOSPI Size Indices: Potential Migrations in September Are Moving

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will run from 1 June to 31 August.
  • We see 6 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 6 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
  • Stocks migrating upward have outperformed stocks migrating lower. But there are still stocks trading at a Price to Book of less than 1.

HKTV (1137 HK): $2.15/Share Buy-Back

By David Blennerhassett

  • Online shopping platform play Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) (better known as HKTV) has announced a buy-back of 11.25% of shares out, at $2.15/share, a 20.8% premium to undisturbed.
  • If successful, the Offer elevates co-founder Ricky Wong’s stake, together with concert parties, to 51.55% (before exercising options), up from 45.75% currently. 
  • HKTV has been in the news lately for all the wrong reasons: claims of non-payments to suppliers; and delaying its 2026 target after a 79% decline in FY23’s net profit.

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Jun 24: Hellofresh MDAX Deletion Hinges on Encavis Tender Offer Result

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • There could be two regular MDAX changes in June including the long-anticipated deletion of M&A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR)
  • We do not see any changes for the DAX index based on the current numbers.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Leaning In with Product Initiatives and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Leaning In with Product Initiatives
  • GAI-Related Numbers and Quotes from C1Q24 Earnings
  • Trip.com (9961 HK): 1Q24, Quite Good Quarter, But Stock Up by 37% in Three Months
  • What Next for Varun Beverages: The Next Leg of Growth Drivers
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-May-2024): Pompeo urges Taiwan to innovate for chip dominance.
  • Japan Post Insurance – Weakening Policies In Force and Meaningful Hits from Non-Operational Items
  • Cipla (CIPLA IN): Strong Q4 Performance; Future Growth Drivers Being Added; Promoter Stake Sale
  • Apple Inc.: Can The New Partnership With OpenAI & Other AI Initiatives Help Them Up Their Game? – Major Drivers
  • Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Likely reserves increase at Hibiscus following better than expected drilling results
  • Dutch Bros Inc (BROS) – Wednesday, Feb 21, 2024


Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Leaning In with Product Initiatives

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab‘s 1Q2024 reflected strong performance from its deliveries and mobility segments despite seasonal headwinds, with growth driven by new initiatives rather than increased incentives, with affordable products leading.
  • The company has launched new products in the premium segment, with advanced bookings improving the most recent initiative, while its saver products are increasing spend, frequency, and retention. 
  • Another key feature of the 1Q2024 has been the strong performance of groceries, driven by alliances with retailers, and booking higher growth than food deliveries. 

GAI-Related Numbers and Quotes from C1Q24 Earnings

By Eric Wen

  • Generative AI (GAI) helps capex, no doubt. But key question is whether capex can yield to revenue and profits;
  • Content creation industry is sure to realize revenue and profits. iQiyi and NetEase already said so with concreate examples;
  • Advertising can realize revenue by better matching of ads inventory and perhaps improve inventory utilization.

Trip.com (9961 HK): 1Q24, Quite Good Quarter, But Stock Up by 37% in Three Months

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q24, Trip’s revenue grew strongly by 29% YoY with all business booming.
  • China and Trip achieved a lot overseas travelers in March and the Labor Day Holidays.
  • However, the stock price has risen 37% in the past three months.

What Next for Varun Beverages: The Next Leg of Growth Drivers

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • VBL has a history of commanding high growth through acquisitions, product portfolio and geographical expansions and operating leverage
  • Varun is now focusing on interesting geographies and products which will aid its next level of growth
  • There could be more than bigger success stories like Sting for Varun Beverages if it can repeat history

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-May-2024): Pompeo urges Taiwan to innovate for chip dominance.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Pompeo advises Taiwan to innovate constantly in chip industry to maintain dominance and not be complacent.
  • LG Energy Solutions may surpass Panasonic in launching mass production of 46800 batteries, a significant development in the industry.
  • Canadian startup CEMWorks is positioning itself as a key player in semiconductors, 5G, and AI with its simulation tool. SDC and LGD lead OLED monitor market with fast growth and gaming focus. China’s internet giants see 1Q24 revenue soar thanks to AI technology.

Japan Post Insurance – Weakening Policies In Force and Meaningful Hits from Non-Operational Items

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) shows us that worsening policies in force is far more important to earnings than staggering growth of new policies.
  • Returns and profit growth are weak and this should matter more than a puritanical focus on new policies, embedded value.
  • Non-Operational line items, likely hedging costs and reserve adjustments, are cancelling out most all positives in operations.

Cipla (CIPLA IN): Strong Q4 Performance; Future Growth Drivers Being Added; Promoter Stake Sale

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q4FY24, Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) posted 10% YoY revenue growth to INR61.6B. Despite surging R&D expenditure, EBITDA increased 13% YoY to INR13B, leading to 54bps margin expansion to 21.4%.
  • New launches in U.S. and outperformance in the domestic market driven by chronic portfolio should drive the growth. For FY25, the company has guided for EBITDA margin of 24.5–25.5%.
  • Cipla shares soared 15% YTD. Last week, the promoters, Hamied family sold 2.5% stake in the company for ~INR26B, igniting a rally in share price.

Apple Inc.: Can The New Partnership With OpenAI & Other AI Initiatives Help Them Up Their Game? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Q2 Fiscal Year 2024 was a good quarter for Apple Inc. as they saw growth in several international markets and set numerous records worldwide.
  • The company reported revenue of $90.8 billion and an EPS record of $1.53.
  • They also announced revenue records in over a dozen countries and regions, and an all-time revenue record in Indonesia.

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Likely reserves increase at Hibiscus following better than expected drilling results

By Auctus Advisors

  • The DHIBM-7P pilot vertical well encountered 24 metres of net pay in an overall hydrocarbon column of 37 metres.
  • The well was drilled from the pilot hole of the recently drilled Hibiscus South well that had already encountered 5-6 mmbbl recoverable resources.
  • The bottom part of this well had been plugged ahead of drilling a horizontal producer in the area (this horizontal well will be drilled next).

Dutch Bros Inc (BROS) – Wednesday, Feb 21, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Dutch Bros has experienced growth during the COVID-19 pandemic but faces challenges in a more competitive market
  • Despite improved financial metrics, the company is expected to see weakness in comparable sales and new store economics
  • Investors are optimistic about Dutch Bros’ growth potential but there are concerns about its ability to sustain profitability and achieve long-term growth targets amid market challenges.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Macro: India Economics: Where Are Private Investments in the Growth Story? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • India Economics: Where Are Private Investments in the Growth Story?
  • Great Game – What will Raisi’s death mean for Iran’s future and the Middle East?
  • Singapore Politics: New Leadership Offers Measured Change
  • CX Daily: China set to ease controls on genetic resources to plug biotech innovation gap
  • UK: Wage Spikes Absorb Rate Hikes


India Economics: Where Are Private Investments in the Growth Story?

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The Indian economy’s stellar run has further to go, boosted by impressive improvements in infrastructure, financial inclusion and the ease of doing business.
  • Private investment, however, has not played a major role, and a declining FDI share undermines the idea that India will be a big winner from supply chain diversification.
  • Major barriers, both in terms of India’s economic foundations and policy direction, need to be overcome if India is to attract the capital formation needed to power further growth.

Great Game – What will Raisi’s death mean for Iran’s future and the Middle East?

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • Welcome to this week’s Great Game after an eventful week in Geopolitics.
  • This week we cover four topics: Iranian President Raisi dies in helicopter crash. Russia begins to make gains in Ukraine. Foiled coup in DR Congo. Israeli government coalition begins to crack
  • Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in Northern Iran on Sunday

Singapore Politics: New Leadership Offers Measured Change

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Prime Minister Lawrence Wong enters office with a considerable amount of goodwill, but his in-tray will be full as the city-state enters a riskier global environment. 
  • His cabinet reshuffle and early policy signals suggest a cautious policy agenda but which would feature greater support for the left behind.    
  • Singapore is likely to continue playing a delicate balancing act between Washington and Beijing in foreign policy, while fortifying economic partnerships with its neighbours.

CX Daily: China set to ease controls on genetic resources to plug biotech innovation gap

By Caixin Global

  • Genetic resources / Cover Story: China set to ease controls on genetic resources to plug biotech innovation gap
  • Iran /: Xi offers his condolences after lran’s President dies in helicopter crash
  • Corruption /: China’s minister of agriculture investigated for corruption

UK: Wage Spikes Absorb Rate Hikes

By Phil Rush

  • Pass-through of past rate hikes will continue as households refinance their mortgages. Quoted rates have more than doubled, but monthly payments will only rise by 33-39%.
  • Substantial wage increases fully offset the rise over 5yrs, preserving the same share of income servicing debt. Refinancing 2yr loans is painful but a relatively rare experience.
  • We are not concerned about the marginal tightening, which will be less in 2024 than in 2023. The debt burden has inflated away, making higher rates sustainably affordable.

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Daily Brief Australia: AUB Group Limited, Empire Energy and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • AUB Group Placement – Good Track Record, Accretive Acquisition
  • Empire Energy Group Ltd – Benefiting from the Future Gas Strategy


AUB Group Placement – Good Track Record, Accretive Acquisition

By Sumeet Singh

  • AUB Group Limited (AUB AU) is looking to raise up to AUD200m (US$133m) to fund the acquisition of Pacific Indemnity.
  • The company has a good track record and the deal will be accretive to EPS.
  • In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Empire Energy Group Ltd – Benefiting from the Future Gas Strategy

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Empire Energy Group Limited (ASX:EEG) is an oil and gas producer/developer, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
  • EEG has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
  • The release of the Federal Government’s Future Gas Strategy Paper, adds some certainty to the economic outlook and highlights the need for new supply sources to meet forecast demand through the energy transition and to service existing LNG contracts.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Kia Corp, Ls Industrial Systems and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • A Plausible Explanation for Korea NPS’s Unusually Large Outflow on Local Stocks in May
  • KOSPI Size Indices: Potential Migrations in September Are Moving


A Plausible Explanation for Korea NPS’s Unusually Large Outflow on Local Stocks in May

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS’s May net selling of ₩700B likely stems from retrieving outsourced management funds to allocate to the newly selected three value-up outsider managers.
  • These value-up managers will start investing in Q3. NPS’s May net selling matches their allocations. We should design a setup targeting the likely inflow into value-up targets starting early July.
  • In particular, we should watch non-financial value-up stocks like Kia Corp and Hyundai Motor, which had more significant May price impacts likely due to NPS outflow.

KOSPI Size Indices: Potential Migrations in September Are Moving

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will run from 1 June to 31 August.
  • We see 6 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 6 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
  • Stocks migrating upward have outperformed stocks migrating lower. But there are still stocks trading at a Price to Book of less than 1.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Grab Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Leaning In with Product Initiatives


Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Leaning In with Product Initiatives

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab‘s 1Q2024 reflected strong performance from its deliveries and mobility segments despite seasonal headwinds, with growth driven by new initiatives rather than increased incentives, with affordable products leading.
  • The company has launched new products in the premium segment, with advanced bookings improving the most recent initiative, while its saver products are increasing spend, frequency, and retention. 
  • Another key feature of the 1Q2024 has been the strong performance of groceries, driven by alliances with retailers, and booking higher growth than food deliveries. 

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Criterium Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Signing a binding sale agreement for Bulu for US$7.75 mm. Initial US$0.5 mm already received


Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Signing a binding sale agreement for Bulu for US$7.75 mm. Initial US$0.5 mm already received

By Auctus Advisors

  • Criterium has signed a binding sale agreement for its interest in the Bulu PSC for US$7.75 mm in cash.
  • The price is in line with previous indications.
  • This is a very important announcement as it provides more clarity on the divestment, the proceeds of which will boost the company’s balance sheet and allow it to accelerate its investment program and grow production faster.

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