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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Consumer: DiDi Global, Euglena Co Ltd, Beenos Inc, Rakuten Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • DIDI Decides To Delist – Now It Gets Messy
  • DiDi to Vote on US Delisting on 23 May
  • Euglena (2931 JP) | Flying High on Sustainable Aviation Fuel
  • Beenos Valuation: SOTP Suggests Plenty of Upside Potential
  • Rakuten (4755 JP) | Time to Cover the Shorts

DIDI Decides To Delist – Now It Gets Messy

By Travis Lundy

  • The company was told a year ago that it had data problems. It was then told in June it had serious data problems and was given 15 days to fix.
  • It did not. It listed itself, against the wishes of the regulators. Then it got in serious hot water. And it has only been getting hotter. 
  • A hoped-for HK Listing By Introduction was nixed 5 weeks ago. Now the Company is simply going to delist to try to solve its problems behind closed doors before relisting.

DiDi to Vote on US Delisting on 23 May

By Arun George

  • DiDi Global (DIDI US) will hold an EGM on 23 May to vote to delist the ADS from the NYSE. The shares will not be listed on another exchange before delisting. 
  • Due to the regulatory restrictions, DiDi is losing market share and pricing power to competitors in China. The 4Q21 results were poor. 
  • Directors and key pre-IPO investors together account for 48.2% of outstanding shares, suggesting that the ordinary resolution will pass. 

Euglena (2931 JP) | Flying High on Sustainable Aviation Fuel

By Mark Chadwick

  • Euglena could be the most important sustainable aviation fuel company in Japan and a world leader in using micro algae as a feedstock
  • The company looks set to become the largest provider of SAF in Japan by 2025
  • Assuming the company can hit its commercial SAF production target, we think the stock could easily double

Beenos Valuation: SOTP Suggests Plenty of Upside Potential

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Leading up to the GoTo IPO, Beenos Inc (3328 JP) shares rallied more than 80% to ¥2,364 per share, possibly expecting substantial listing gains from the “conservatively” priced GoTo IPO.
  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) opened around 18% above its IPO price on 11th April 2022, but Beenos fell by around 7% and 8% on 11th and 12th April 2022 respectively.
  • It may be too late to ride the GoTo IPO rally, but exposure to a high-profile company like GoTo brings visibility, resulting in a much narrower NAV discount.

Rakuten (4755 JP) | Time to Cover the Shorts

By Mark Chadwick

  • We have a non-consensus Bullish call on Rakuten and see over 60% upside to the share price
  • The key driver will be a recovery in the Mobile Business
  • We expect losses to gradually improve as roaming fees and customer acquisition costs start to decline

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Renesas Electronics, Meituan, ONE Store, Tencent, Twitter Inc, Infosys Ltd, Netgear Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Renesas (6723 JP) – On Top of Peer-Beating Growth, and Valuation… Watch for Buybacks
  • Meituan Aligns Itself with Common Prosperity Measures but What Will Happen to Profitability?
  • One Store IPO: Changes Comps But Maintains Same IPO Price Range
  • Tencent: Investments up as Valuations Drop, Room for Another Significant Special in Specie Dividend
  • Twitter Launches Its Poison Pill – Now We Wait
  • One Store IPO – Refiling Updates, No Change to Price Tag
  • Infosys: 4Q Disappoints; Downgrade Cycle upon Us Sooner than Expected
  • Infosys: Demand Scenario Intact Despite Slowing Growth Momentum
  • NTGR: Discounting to a Router
  • Infosys: Weak Operating Performance; Strong FY23 Revenue Growth Guidance

Renesas (6723 JP) – On Top of Peer-Beating Growth, and Valuation… Watch for Buybacks

By Travis Lundy

  • A bit over a year ago Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) announced its transaction to buy Dialog Semiconductor (DLG GR) for €4.8bn (roughly ¥624bn) and the transaction closed end-August 2021.
  • In September, Renesas announced a “Progress Update” covering various business segments, expectations for supply in the sector, and eventual “shareholder return” policy.
  • This past week the Nikkei carried an article talking about a possible stock buyback later this year. I explore.

Meituan Aligns Itself with Common Prosperity Measures but What Will Happen to Profitability?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Nikkei reported that Meituan intends to pay better compensation to small-and-medium restaurants and to delivery workers to prove that the company is in line with Beijing’s common prosperity measures.
  • As Shanghai is under strict Covid lockdown, Meituan has seen a sharp rise in demand for grocery deliveries, however, margins are expected to be thin due to additional costs.
  • The company has been under tremendous pressure to improve its cost structure and is undertaking 10-20% job cuts across all its business units.

One Store IPO: Changes Comps But Maintains Same IPO Price Range

By Douglas Kim

  • One Store revised its IPO filings, changing the comps but maintaining the same price range of 34,300 won to 41,700 won.
  • The bankers used new comps in the valuation analysis (Tencent, Naver, Kakao Corp, and Nexon). The P/S multiple is slightly higher than previously but IPO discount range is also higher.
  • Our target price of 48,713 won is 28% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range of 38,000 won. 

Tencent: Investments up as Valuations Drop, Room for Another Significant Special in Specie Dividend

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Tencent’s increase in investment acquisition activity has coincided with a general weakness in equity prices and valuation levels.
  • Tencent management’s assessment of the fair value of its listed investee holdings, of RMB982.8bn on 31 December 2021, equates to roughly 27.4% of its market cap.
  • The market value of Tencent’s investee holdings in more-mature, Chinese-listed, internet-orientated holdings equates to roughly 9% of its current market cap.

Twitter Launches Its Poison Pill – Now We Wait

By Travis Lundy

  • Twitter Inc (TWTR US) announced a poison pill in a press release Friday with details in an 8-K Monday. It will dividend out one right/share on record date 25 April. 
  • The right would allow Rightsholders, under certain conditions, to purchase $420 of shares for $210. That number is not a coincidence. 
  • Some will get upset by this, but there is a lot of fine print. And I review how the poison pill fits into Delaware hostile defence standards.

One Store IPO – Refiling Updates, No Change to Price Tag

By Clarence Chu

  • ONE Store (ONE KS) is looking to raise up to US$228m in its Korean IPO.
  • One Store delayed its bookbuild by two weeks, with book building slated to run between 9th-10th May 2022. Listing, as well, has been pushed back to end May.
  • Peers have slightly corrected since our last note and in our view, from a historical perspective, the low end seems justified.

Infosys: 4Q Disappoints; Downgrade Cycle upon Us Sooner than Expected

By Nirmal Bang

  • Infosys 4Q disappoints; Downgrade cycle upon us sooner than expected (INFY) reported US$4,280mn revenue for 4QFY22 (below our estimate of US$4,407mn) reflects ~1.2% growth QoQ in CC terms against our estimate of 4.3%.
  • EBIT margin at ~21.5% (our estimate: ~23%) declined by 200bps QoQ.
  • INFY attributed this weakness in revenue to seasonality (fewer working days), Covid impact and a one-off issue connected with a certain client (~100bps)…(continued).

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Infosys: Demand Scenario Intact Despite Slowing Growth Momentum

By Axis Direct

  • Infosys Ltd (Infy) reported Q4FY22 revenue of Rs 32,276 Cr, up 1.3% QoQ and 0.8% QoQ (in CC terms) which was below our expectations.
  • The company’s operating profit stood at Rs 6,956 Cr, reporting a de-growth of 7.3% on a QoQ basis.
  • We recommend a BUY rating on the stock and assign a 29x P/E multiple to its FY24E earnings of Rs 71/share to arrive at a TP of Rs 2,060/share, implying an upside of 18% from the CMP.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


NTGR: Discounting to a Router

By Hamed Khorsand

  • NTGR spent the Q12022 reducing channel inventory of lower priced wireless routers, but there is still a lack of catalyst for consumers to upgrade after buying a router in 2020
  • NTGR’s balance sheet makes the stock look attractive at current levels, but the first quarter has too many variables to push us off the sidelines
  • During the first quarter of 2022 it was visible the degree of discounting NTGR had undertaken in the channel to remove lower priced wireless routers, or sub $299 price point

Infosys: Weak Operating Performance; Strong FY23 Revenue Growth Guidance

By Emkay

  • Q4FY22 operating performance missed our expectations.
  • Revenues grew by a mere 1.2% QoQ CC, while EBITM declined 190bps to 21.6%.
  • Operating performance remained weak due to seasonality, a Covid-related impact in the early part of the quarter and a clientrelated contractual provision (likely to be recovered in FY23).

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Health Care: Sino Biopharmaceutical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) – Three “Golden Eggs” and the Risks Behind

Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) – Three “Golden Eggs” and the Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • As the “the king of generics”, Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) is lucky to have three “golden eggs”(Entecavir, Anlotinib, CoronaVac) to contribute huge performance over the years.
  • The promotion of VBP and fierce competition make Sino Biopharmaceutical’s products lose pricing power. Due to little revolutionary technology/slow product iteration/weak R&D, it’s unlikely to have another Anlotinib level asset.
  • The Company’s development mode, the mindset of management, and other concerns could be more serious problems, causing investors to distrust the management level and preventing it from getting high valuation.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Financials: Mirae Asset TIGER Secondary Cell ETF, Nasdaq-100 Stock Index, HDFC Bank, Tisco Financial Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Recap on WISE Theme Indexes (TIGER ETFs) Rebalancing Trading on April 14
  • NDX Support to Reduce Short
  • HDFC Bank: Strong ROA Despite NIM Compression!
  • HDFC Bank- 4QFY22 Result Update- Higher Wholesale Growth Hurts Margins
  • Tisco Financial Group (TISCO.BK) – Good Earnings Visibility

Recap on WISE Theme Indexes (TIGER ETFs) Rebalancing Trading on April 14

By Sanghyun Park

  • In general, the projection hit rate for the top market cap constituents was sufficiently high. And the correlation between their stock price direction and passive flow was also high.
  • However, the projection hit rate for the constituents with a small market cap was relatively low.
  • If we traded the proposed tradable names with an equal-weighted Long/Short basket, we would have achieved a return of 1.76%. Even excluding Hanjin Kal, we would have achieved 1.31%.

NDX Support to Reduce Short

By Thomas Schroeder

  • NDX has been a top US short from 15,200  but we are nearing our 13,600/500 downside target where we want to reduce short exposure.
  • Near NDX sell resistance resides at 14,400 and 14,700. Our macro view for April remains to sell rally attempts.
  • For now, the NDX decline is starting to look stretched as the SPX nears minor support at 4,340/20 where we look to trade a bounce sequence.

HDFC Bank: Strong ROA Despite NIM Compression!

By Axis Direct

  • HDFC Bank’s (HDFCB) Q4FY22 earnings performance stood below our and consensus estimates with NII growth disappointing despite a healthy loan growth.
  • Loan growth was robust at 21/9% YoY/QoQ supported by healthy growth in the Commercial & Rural Banking (+31% YoY) and Corporate Book (+17% YoY)
  • We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 1,960/share derived using the SOTP method (core bank at 3.4xFY24E ABV + Subsidiaries value Rs 75/-), implying an upside of 34% from the CMP

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


HDFC Bank- 4QFY22 Result Update- Higher Wholesale Growth Hurts Margins

By Nirmal Bang

  • HDFC Bank reported earnings growth of ~23% YoY, mainly driven by lower provisions.
  • Operating profit growth was subdued at 5.3% YoY on account of multiple factors: (1) lower NII growth due to NIM compression (2) treasury losses (vs. gains in previous periods) due to increase in yields (3) investments in branches, human capital and technology.
  • Loan book growth was strong at ~21% YoY, driven by commercial/rural and wholesale banking…(continued).

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Tisco Financial Group (TISCO.BK) – Good Earnings Visibility

By Maybank Research

  • Highest ROE and dividend yield in sector; BUY
  • Earnings in line; impressive asset quality in 1Q22
  • Expects loan demand to recover in 2H22
  • Good asset quality set to lower credit cost

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Most Read: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, DiDi Global, 21Vianet Group, Renesas Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, TOPIX, KT/SKT, GoTo, Yangzijiang, Emperador, SK Shieldus
  • DIDI Decides To Delist – Now It Gets Messy
  • Merger Arb Mondays (18 Apr) – Yashili, VNET, Sezzle, Link Admin, Razer, Excelpoint, Guodian
  • Renesas (6723 JP) – On Top of Peer-Beating Growth, and Valuation… Watch for Buybacks
  • DiDi to Vote on US Delisting on 23 May

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, TOPIX, KT/SKT, GoTo, Yangzijiang, Emperador, SK Shieldus

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the MSCI May SAIR starts on Monday, 18 April and will run for 10 trading days, though MSCI usually selects one of the first five days.
  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) listed during the last week and could be a Fast Entry to the IDX indices. The Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) spinoff has index implications.
  • Relatively large inflows into China focused ETFs during the week, while there were outflows from Korea focused ETFs.

DIDI Decides To Delist – Now It Gets Messy

By Travis Lundy

  • The company was told a year ago that it had data problems. It was then told in June it had serious data problems and was given 15 days to fix.
  • It did not. It listed itself, against the wishes of the regulators. Then it got in serious hot water. And it has only been getting hotter. 
  • A hoped-for HK Listing By Introduction was nixed 5 weeks ago. Now the Company is simply going to delist to try to solve its problems behind closed doors before relisting.

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Apr) – Yashili, VNET, Sezzle, Link Admin, Razer, Excelpoint, Guodian

By Arun George


Renesas (6723 JP) – On Top of Peer-Beating Growth, and Valuation… Watch for Buybacks

By Travis Lundy

  • A bit over a year ago Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) announced its transaction to buy Dialog Semiconductor (DLG GR) for €4.8bn (roughly ¥624bn) and the transaction closed end-August 2021.
  • In September, Renesas announced a “Progress Update” covering various business segments, expectations for supply in the sector, and eventual “shareholder return” policy.
  • This past week the Nikkei carried an article talking about a possible stock buyback later this year. I explore.

DiDi to Vote on US Delisting on 23 May

By Arun George

  • DiDi Global (DIDI US) will hold an EGM on 23 May to vote to delist the ADS from the NYSE. The shares will not be listed on another exchange before delisting. 
  • Due to the regulatory restrictions, DiDi is losing market share and pricing power to competitors in China. The 4Q21 results were poor. 
  • Directors and key pre-IPO investors together account for 48.2% of outstanding shares, suggesting that the ordinary resolution will pass. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Macro: The Crude Reality and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Crude Reality
  • Singapore: 3 Reasons Why MAS Will Move Again In October 2022
  • Alpha Generation by Korean Prefs Vs. Common Shares Pair Trades in 2022
  • Outlook for US Financial Markets and Inflation: Housing Sector Dynamics Could Prove Critical
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – MAPI’s Remoulding, Sido Muncul, and Bukalapak’s Renaissance
  • The Macro Vigilantes Are Waking Up
  • India: Worrying Auguries for Growth
  • CX Daily: The Disrupted Lifelines of the Shanghai Outbreak
  • Slowing Yo Y Growth On Omicron Impact Amid The Fog Of War

The Crude Reality

By Shyam Devani

  • Oil has posted clear weekly reversals and has a bullish setup that indicates significant gains
  • Expect a rally to, and through, the highs seen in March this year
  • This is likely to have negative implications for other financial markets including equities. Trade ideas included at the end

Singapore: 3 Reasons Why MAS Will Move Again In October 2022

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Three factors argue for more monetary tightening in October. First, inflationary expectations need to be anchored.
  • Second, gGlobal inflation will remain elevated because of continued supply chain disruptions and upward pressures on energy and food prices. 
  • There will be less slack in the economy due to strong growth in the domestic sectors. 

Alpha Generation by Korean Prefs Vs. Common Shares Pair Trades in 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the continued outperformance of the major Korean pref shares versus common shares in 2022.
  • There has been a continued closing of the pricing gaps between the major Korean common and preferred shares this year.
  • The 28 Korean preferred stocks experienced an average shares prices decline of 3.2% YTD, outperforming their common shares counterparts which were down 5.4% in the same period. 

Outlook for US Financial Markets and Inflation: Housing Sector Dynamics Could Prove Critical

By Said Desaque

  • Recent inversion of the US Treasury yield curve indicates investors are nervous about a potential policy mistake by the Fed. Complacency about inflation resulted in overly-generous liquidity provisions requiring removal.
  • Observers believe the Fed lacks courage to tighten aggressively due to recession risks.  Attention has shifted to the timing of the inflation peak, but housing sector strength complicates the task.
  • The Fed should concentrate its efforts to cool housing inflation with higher long-term interest rates, because inflation in this sector is largely determined by domestic economic forces.   

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – MAPI’s Remoulding, Sido Muncul, and Bukalapak’s Renaissance

By Angus Mackintosh


The Macro Vigilantes Are Waking Up

By The Macro Compass

  • In the ‘80s, independent economist Yardeni coined the term ‘‘bond vigilantes’’ to refer to fixed income investors disciplining authorities for running inflationary fiscal and monetary policies and ultimately restoring order through the bond market.
  • In 2022, we are witnessing the first preliminary signs of the return of the global macro vigilantes
  • Amongst others, George Soros is an eminent member of this selected group of macro investors who challenge policymakers across countries and relentlessly chase regime-change narratives once they see a good opportunity

India: Worrying Auguries for Growth

By Nicholas Chia

  • Animal spirits are clearly in short supply in the Indian elephant, going by the rather lacklustre factory output figures.
  • Consumption and investment demand remain tepid while monetary tightening and power shortages will exert a drag.
  • Inflation remains a concern, and surging CPI/WPI inflation will force the RBI’s hands to move in June, with further tightening from August. 

CX Daily: The Disrupted Lifelines of the Shanghai Outbreak

By Caixin Global

  • Shanghai / Cover Story: The disrupted lifelines of the Shanghai outbreak

  • GDP / China’s first-quarter GDP growth beats expectations with 4.8% rise

  • Banking / China Merchants Bank president removed from his position


Slowing Yo Y Growth On Omicron Impact Amid The Fog Of War

By Maybank Research

  • YoY OFWR growth slowed for the third month
  • Caveat to OFWR outlook now is global economic outlook

Overseas Filipino Workers Remittances (OFWR) growth slowed for the third month in a row in Feb 2022 to +1.3% YoY (Jan 2022: +2.5% YoY). Currently, our 2002 OFWR growth forecast is +4.2% to USD32.75b (2M 2022: +1.9%; 2021: +5.1%) while BSP expects +4% growth. Caveat to OFWR outlook now is the global economic impact of Russia-Ukraine war, especially if the conflict drags Europe which accounts for 12% of 2021 OFWR vs a miniscule 0.008% share for Russia and Ukraine.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Bottom-Up: Euglena Co Ltd, Meituan, Tencent, Air China Ltd (H), Intouch Holdings, Sino Biopharmaceutical, Rakuten Inc, Netgear Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Euglena (2931 JP) | Flying High on Sustainable Aviation Fuel
  • Meituan Aligns Itself with Common Prosperity Measures but What Will Happen to Profitability?
  • Tencent: Investments up as Valuations Drop, Room for Another Significant Special in Specie Dividend
  • Air China (753 HK): Weaker 1Q22 Due to Exceptional Factors
  • INTUCH: ADVANC’s Healthy Outlook Makes INTUCH Attractive
  • Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) – Three “Golden Eggs” and the Risks Behind
  • Rakuten (4755 JP) | Time to Cover the Shorts
  • NTGR: Discounting to a Router

Euglena (2931 JP) | Flying High on Sustainable Aviation Fuel

By Mark Chadwick

  • Euglena could be the most important sustainable aviation fuel company in Japan and a world leader in using micro algae as a feedstock
  • The company looks set to become the largest provider of SAF in Japan by 2025
  • Assuming the company can hit its commercial SAF production target, we think the stock could easily double

Meituan Aligns Itself with Common Prosperity Measures but What Will Happen to Profitability?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Nikkei reported that Meituan intends to pay better compensation to small-and-medium restaurants and to delivery workers to prove that the company is in line with Beijing’s common prosperity measures.
  • As Shanghai is under strict Covid lockdown, Meituan has seen a sharp rise in demand for grocery deliveries, however, margins are expected to be thin due to additional costs.
  • The company has been under tremendous pressure to improve its cost structure and is undertaking 10-20% job cuts across all its business units.

Tencent: Investments up as Valuations Drop, Room for Another Significant Special in Specie Dividend

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Tencent’s increase in investment acquisition activity has coincided with a general weakness in equity prices and valuation levels.
  • Tencent management’s assessment of the fair value of its listed investee holdings, of RMB982.8bn on 31 December 2021, equates to roughly 27.4% of its market cap.
  • The market value of Tencent’s investee holdings in more-mature, Chinese-listed, internet-orientated holdings equates to roughly 9% of its current market cap.

Air China (753 HK): Weaker 1Q22 Due to Exceptional Factors

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) has weaker passenger traffic in Mar and 1Q22 when compared with China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), and this is mostly due to the Olympics.
  • We expect one-off factors to remove starting Apr and traffic gap against CSA will narrow going forward. Its associate Cathay Pacific (293 HK) has also seen good pick-up in Mar. 
  • Air China outperformed CSA by 8pp YTD. There are signs of quarantine requirement relaxation for incoming passengers, and we anticipate gradual international traffic recovery to bode well for Air China.

INTUCH: ADVANC’s Healthy Outlook Makes INTUCH Attractive

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • We initiate coverage of INTUCH with a BUY rating, based on our TP of Bt82 derived from 18.9% discount from SOTP valuation, implying 22.3xPE’22E.Despite ADVANC’s strong earnings growth in 2022-24
  • Benefit from ADVANC’s top-of-industry performance. ADVANC to gain from better 5G infrastructure and ARPU reversal.
  • ADVANC’s enterprise business will grow rapidly between 2022-24. THCOM has negligible impact on overall performance.

Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) – Three “Golden Eggs” and the Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • As the “the king of generics”, Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) is lucky to have three “golden eggs”(Entecavir, Anlotinib, CoronaVac) to contribute huge performance over the years.
  • The promotion of VBP and fierce competition make Sino Biopharmaceutical’s products lose pricing power. Due to little revolutionary technology/slow product iteration/weak R&D, it’s unlikely to have another Anlotinib level asset.
  • The Company’s development mode, the mindset of management, and other concerns could be more serious problems, causing investors to distrust the management level and preventing it from getting high valuation.

Rakuten (4755 JP) | Time to Cover the Shorts

By Mark Chadwick

  • We have a non-consensus Bullish call on Rakuten and see over 60% upside to the share price
  • The key driver will be a recovery in the Mobile Business
  • We expect losses to gradually improve as roaming fees and customer acquisition costs start to decline

NTGR: Discounting to a Router

By Hamed Khorsand

  • NTGR spent the Q12022 reducing channel inventory of lower priced wireless routers, but there is still a lack of catalyst for consumers to upgrade after buying a router in 2020
  • NTGR’s balance sheet makes the stock look attractive at current levels, but the first quarter has too many variables to push us off the sidelines
  • During the first quarter of 2022 it was visible the degree of discounting NTGR had undertaken in the channel to remove lower priced wireless routers, or sub $299 price point

Related tickers: Euglena Co Ltd (2931.T), Meituan (3690.HK), Tencent (0700.HK), Air China Ltd (H) (0753.HK), Intouch Holdings (INTUCH.BK), Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK), Rakuten Inc (4755.T), Netgear Inc (NTGR.O)

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

India: HDFC Bank, Infosys Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC Bank: Strong ROA Despite NIM Compression!
  • HDFC Bank- 4QFY22 Result Update- Higher Wholesale Growth Hurts Margins
  • Infosys: 4Q Disappoints; Downgrade Cycle upon Us Sooner than Expected
  • Infosys: Demand Scenario Intact Despite Slowing Growth Momentum
  • Infosys: Weak Operating Performance; Strong FY23 Revenue Growth Guidance
  • Infosys: Disappointing Growth, Margin Under Pressure

HDFC Bank: Strong ROA Despite NIM Compression!

By Axis Direct

  • HDFC Bank’s (HDFCB) Q4FY22 earnings performance stood below our and consensus estimates with NII growth disappointing despite a healthy loan growth.
  • Loan growth was robust at 21/9% YoY/QoQ supported by healthy growth in the Commercial & Rural Banking (+31% YoY) and Corporate Book (+17% YoY)
  • We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 1,960/share derived using the SOTP method (core bank at 3.4xFY24E ABV + Subsidiaries value Rs 75/-), implying an upside of 34% from the CMP

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


HDFC Bank- 4QFY22 Result Update- Higher Wholesale Growth Hurts Margins

By Nirmal Bang

  • HDFC Bank reported earnings growth of ~23% YoY, mainly driven by lower provisions.
  • Operating profit growth was subdued at 5.3% YoY on account of multiple factors: (1) lower NII growth due to NIM compression (2) treasury losses (vs. gains in previous periods) due to increase in yields (3) investments in branches, human capital and technology.
  • Loan book growth was strong at ~21% YoY, driven by commercial/rural and wholesale banking…(continued).

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Infosys: 4Q Disappoints; Downgrade Cycle upon Us Sooner than Expected

By Nirmal Bang

  • Infosys 4Q disappoints; Downgrade cycle upon us sooner than expected (INFY) reported US$4,280mn revenue for 4QFY22 (below our estimate of US$4,407mn) reflects ~1.2% growth QoQ in CC terms against our estimate of 4.3%.
  • EBIT margin at ~21.5% (our estimate: ~23%) declined by 200bps QoQ.
  • INFY attributed this weakness in revenue to seasonality (fewer working days), Covid impact and a one-off issue connected with a certain client (~100bps)…(continued).

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Infosys: Demand Scenario Intact Despite Slowing Growth Momentum

By Axis Direct

  • Infosys Ltd (Infy) reported Q4FY22 revenue of Rs 32,276 Cr, up 1.3% QoQ and 0.8% QoQ (in CC terms) which was below our expectations.
  • The company’s operating profit stood at Rs 6,956 Cr, reporting a de-growth of 7.3% on a QoQ basis.
  • We recommend a BUY rating on the stock and assign a 29x P/E multiple to its FY24E earnings of Rs 71/share to arrive at a TP of Rs 2,060/share, implying an upside of 18% from the CMP.

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Infosys: Weak Operating Performance; Strong FY23 Revenue Growth Guidance

By Emkay

  • Q4FY22 operating performance missed our expectations.
  • Revenues grew by a mere 1.2% QoQ CC, while EBITM declined 190bps to 21.6%.
  • Operating performance remained weak due to seasonality, a Covid-related impact in the early part of the quarter and a clientrelated contractual provision (likely to be recovered in FY23).

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Infosys: Disappointing Growth, Margin Under Pressure

By Motilal Oswal

  • INFO reported a weak growth of 1.2% QoQ CC, below our estimate of 2.8%, on account of seasonality, the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, and client provisions.
  • Large deal TCV of USD2.3b was a tad soft (net new at 48%).
  • However, the management indicated good traction in its large deal pipeline and reiterated that the demand remains strong

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Thailand: Intouch Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • INTUCH: ADVANC’s Healthy Outlook Makes INTUCH Attractive

INTUCH: ADVANC’s Healthy Outlook Makes INTUCH Attractive

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • We initiate coverage of INTUCH with a BUY rating, based on our TP of Bt82 derived from 18.9% discount from SOTP valuation, implying 22.3xPE’22E.Despite ADVANC’s strong earnings growth in 2022-24
  • Benefit from ADVANC’s top-of-industry performance. ADVANC to gain from better 5G infrastructure and ARPU reversal.
  • ADVANC’s enterprise business will grow rapidly between 2022-24. THCOM has negligible impact on overall performance.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Japan: Renesas Electronics, Euglena Co Ltd, Beenos Inc, Rakuten Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Renesas (6723 JP) – On Top of Peer-Beating Growth, and Valuation… Watch for Buybacks
  • Euglena (2931 JP) | Flying High on Sustainable Aviation Fuel
  • Beenos Valuation: SOTP Suggests Plenty of Upside Potential
  • Rakuten (4755 JP) | Time to Cover the Shorts

Renesas (6723 JP) – On Top of Peer-Beating Growth, and Valuation… Watch for Buybacks

By Travis Lundy

  • A bit over a year ago Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) announced its transaction to buy Dialog Semiconductor (DLG GR) for €4.8bn (roughly ¥624bn) and the transaction closed end-August 2021.
  • In September, Renesas announced a “Progress Update” covering various business segments, expectations for supply in the sector, and eventual “shareholder return” policy.
  • This past week the Nikkei carried an article talking about a possible stock buyback later this year. I explore.

Euglena (2931 JP) | Flying High on Sustainable Aviation Fuel

By Mark Chadwick

  • Euglena could be the most important sustainable aviation fuel company in Japan and a world leader in using micro algae as a feedstock
  • The company looks set to become the largest provider of SAF in Japan by 2025
  • Assuming the company can hit its commercial SAF production target, we think the stock could easily double

Beenos Valuation: SOTP Suggests Plenty of Upside Potential

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Leading up to the GoTo IPO, Beenos Inc (3328 JP) shares rallied more than 80% to ¥2,364 per share, possibly expecting substantial listing gains from the “conservatively” priced GoTo IPO.
  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) opened around 18% above its IPO price on 11th April 2022, but Beenos fell by around 7% and 8% on 11th and 12th April 2022 respectively.
  • It may be too late to ride the GoTo IPO rally, but exposure to a high-profile company like GoTo brings visibility, resulting in a much narrower NAV discount.

Rakuten (4755 JP) | Time to Cover the Shorts

By Mark Chadwick

  • We have a non-consensus Bullish call on Rakuten and see over 60% upside to the share price
  • The key driver will be a recovery in the Mobile Business
  • We expect losses to gradually improve as roaming fees and customer acquisition costs start to decline

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma