Smartkarma Daily Briefs

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), A8 New Media (800 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK).
Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP).

Legend Biotech (LEGN US) – A Takeover Offer?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Legend Biotech received takeover interest and hired Centerview Partners to review the offer. Due to the satisfactory clinical results/promising commercialization outlook of Carvykti, Legend Bio is an attractive M&A candidate.
Peak sales of Carvykti could exceed US$5 billion. After Carvykti is approved by the FDA/EC for 2L treatment of MM, future valuation leap of legend Bio is becoming more certain.
Legend Bio is clearly undervalued. We think reasonable market value range for Legend Bio is about US$12.5 – 15 billion, which means there is decent upward potential for share price.

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Jul 15

Daily Brief Financials: China Construction Bank H, NIFTY Index, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Longfor Properties and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs
EQD / NSE Vol Update / Vega Was Bid & Gamma Was Offered
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 24: Positive Start to the Trade; Some Changes to Expectations
Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs

SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Major buying was mostly SOEs.
The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Vega Was Bid & Gamma Was Offered

By Sankalp Singh

IVs for Monthly & Quarterly contracts rose as options market baked in additional risk premia for the Budget Announcement.
Vega bid & Gamma offered – Monthly IVs higher by +2.3 vols & Weekly IVs lower by -0.5 vols. Short-Dated IVs closed lower in spite of upcoming earnings events
Term structure is trading with a kinked shape, with Monthly IVs trading at a markup to rest of the curve

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 24: Positive Start to the Trade; Some Changes to Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
There have been multiple changes to our expected ADDs/DELs list since our last insight.

Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd
JSW Steel Ltd
Lenovo
Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
Tata Steel Thailand

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Jul 15

Daily Brief Consumer: Great Wall Motor, ASICS Corp, Thai Beverage, BYD, ZOZO Inc, Charles & Colvard and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jul 2024): Roughly Flat Week Ahead of 3rd Plenum, Possible A Short-Covers
ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact
Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Faces Potential Hit as Vietnam Proposes Beer Tax Hike
China Consumption Weekly (15 Jul 2024): Seres, BYD, Guangzhou Automobile,Trip.com
Zozo Still Expecting New Highs
CHARLES & COLVARD LTD (CTHR) – Sunday, Apr 14, 2024

A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jul 2024): Roughly Flat Week Ahead of 3rd Plenum, Possible A Short-Covers

The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND inflow continues, albeit smaller. SOE Banks/Energy/Telecoms remain a big net buy. Percentage of volume is large. NORTHBOUND saw finance buying. Possible short-covering ahead of new short-selling restrictions/access.
AH Premia were up small on average, down small on the liquid pairs. But HSI/HSCEI vs CSI300/500 performance spreads were higher. Third Plenum this week may drive “sentiment.”

ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

By Sumeet Singh

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).
For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Faces Potential Hit as Vietnam Proposes Beer Tax Hike

By Devi Subhakesan

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) majority-owned SABECO, a leading beer company in Vietnam, may face volume declines if the proposed beer tax hike is implemented.
The tougher market outlook makes the earlier proposed BeerCo listing unlikely anytime soon.
With no meaningful stock catalyst, weak sector outlook and a stretched balance sheet, the stock could slip down after index inclusion related passive stock buying ends.

China Consumption Weekly (15 Jul 2024): Seres, BYD, Guangzhou Automobile,Trip.com

By Ming Lu

Guangzhou Automobile sales volume of new energy vehicle decreased by 38% YoY in June and by 31% YoY in 1H24.
BYD plans to invest US$1 billion to build a factory in Turkey.
AliPay announced that foreigners’ consumption amount in China in 1H24 was eight times of last year.

Zozo Still Expecting New Highs

By Michael Causton

Zozo continues to post solid gains in sales but a slight dip in new customers has led some to suggest that the online fashion mall is reaching its peak.
Meanwhile, The Japanese fashion retail sector has seen improved performance from retail stores at the expense of e-commerce, with stores actually outperforming online last year.
While further growth may be harder to achieve, Zozo has several strategies in place that should help it reach its target of ¥800 billion.

CHARLES & COLVARD LTD (CTHR) – Sunday, Apr 14, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Charles & Colvard operates in the lab-created diamond industry and plans to transition to lab-grown diamonds and direct distribution
The company experienced a challenging second quarter but has a solid foundation and potential for improved financial performance in the future
Despite current setbacks, Charles & Colvard could present a value investment opportunity for patient investors awaiting a turnaround

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

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Jul 15

Most Read: ASICS Corp, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, MMG, Hyundai Motor India , POSCO Holdings, Timee Inc, Eoptolink Technology , CK Infrastructure Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking
ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering
Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jul) – China TCM, Canvest, Henlius, Hollysys, Second Chance, Anasarda, Rex
MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion
Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case
POSCO Holdings: Announces Shares Buyback and Cancellation of Nearly 2 Trillion Won
MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue – 98.18% Taken Up
Weekly Deals Digest (14 Jul) – Timee, ASICS, Honda, Kokusai, Sanil, Canvest, Henlius, HKTV, Rex
CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown
CK Infra (1038 HK): London Calling

HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking

Today after the close, ASICS Corp (7936 JP) announced a very large secondary offering. It points out that as a global brand, it needs global-standard corporate governance.
As such, it says they’ve been discussing sales with crossholders. But we knew the cross-holders were going to sell. This offering is 85mm shares, ¥210bn at last. That’s big.
The stock has doubled year-to-date. Today they raised FY guidance BIGLY (+60% OP and NP). Now a huge offering. This seems like a “feed the ducks when they’re quacking” situation.

ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering

ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 85.0 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY218 billion (US$1.4 billion).
Asics’ goal with the secondary offering is to eliminate cross-shareholdings. Asics also announced a material upgrade to full-year forecasts to offset the impact of the offering.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 23 and 26 July (likely 23 July).

Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jul) – China TCM, Canvest, Henlius, Hollysys, Second Chance, Anasarda, Rex

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), A8 New Media (800 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK).
Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP).

MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion

Friday post-close, MMG (1208 HK) released the results of its Rights Offering. 3.4654bn Rights Shares at HK$2.62 saw 98.18% take-up. New Rights Shares officially start trading on 16 July.
The other 1.82% (63.1mm Rights Shares) saw 6.383bn excess Rights Shares applications. EAFs were allocated evenly, so applicants got 0.99% of what they bid for, but hey, free money?
The new Rights Shares are expected to commence trading on 16 July. Even better, there was good fundamental news out late Sunday which should add to the general wellbeing.

Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case

Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN), a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor (005385 KS), aims to raise up to US$3.0 billion at a valuation of US$17 billion.
HMIL is India’s second largest passenger vehicle manufacturer, as measured by domestic passenger vehicle sales. It serves as Hyundai’s production and export hub for emerging markets.
The bull case rests on a strong market position, premiumisation-led growth, top-quartile operating and FCF margin profile.

POSCO Holdings: Announces Shares Buyback and Cancellation of Nearly 2 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) announced a major shareholder return policy to buyback and cancel nearly 2 trillion won worth of treasury shares from 2024 to 2026.
The company will cancel 5.25 million treasury shares representing 6.2% of outstanding shares (about 1.9 trillion won). It will also repurchase and cancel additional 100 billion won of shares.
POSCO Holdings has taken a major initiative to provide greater returns to its shareholders and this should have a positive impact on its share price.

MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue – 98.18% Taken Up

By Rikki Malik

While there may be still be some overhang once the rights shares start trading, this is a good entry point
Applications for 6.4 Billion excess rights shares received from 11 applications
Rights shares will start trading on Tuesday 16th of July

Weekly Deals Digest (14 Jul) – Timee, ASICS, Honda, Kokusai, Sanil, Canvest, Henlius, HKTV, Rex

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: ASICS Corp (7936 JP), Honda Motor (7267 JP), Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) placements; Sanil Electric (062040 KS) and Timee Inc (215A JP) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK), Rex Minerals (RXM AU), Second Chance Properties (SCE SP).

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

By Brian Freitas

There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.

CK Infra (1038 HK): London Calling

By David Blennerhassett

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK), 75.67%-held by CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), announced it is considering a second listing on an overseas stock exchange, such as London.
A UK-listing makes perfect sense. In excess of 90% of CKI’s FY23 profit was sourced from businesses outside Asia, with ~50% from its UK ops.
The wording in the announcement is unclear – a dual primary listing, or a secondary listing? The LSE is also undergoing a listing regime change, effective 29th July.

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Jul 14

Daily Brief ESG: Is It Difficult to Separate Business Relationships from Proxy Voting? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

Is It Difficult to Separate Business Relationships from Proxy Voting?

Is It Difficult to Separate Business Relationships from Proxy Voting?

By Aki Matsumoto

Competition little work because the portfolio company had advantage over competitors in business. This distorted competitive environment may have prevented the beneficiaries from receiving the benefits they should have received.
If the business was advanced by competitive advantage through the ownership of shares in the portfolio company, the beneficiaries may not have received the benefits that they should have received.
The question is whether the life insurers are exercising their voting rights properly for the benefit of the beneficiaries in the shares of client companies they hold.

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Jul 14

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Automotive: Rev Your Engines and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Automotive: Rev Your Engines

Automotive: Rev Your Engines

By Douglas O’Laughlin

I’m calling a very definitive bottom in Automotive semiconductor stocks. I’ve been mixed on automotive for quite some time, and as recently as April, I was bearish.
It all started when China decided to dump cheap EVs globally, which made me extremely concerned about Western automotive companies.
Hell, I’ve been bearish on WOLF since March of 2023 and wrote not one but two notes about how Silicon Carbide looks like it’s in a rough spot.

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Jul 14

Daily Brief ECM: Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case
Weekly Deals Digest (14 Jul) – Timee, ASICS, Honda, Kokusai, Sanil, Canvest, Henlius, HKTV, Rex
I-Scream Media IPO Preview

Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case

Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN), a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor (005385 KS), aims to raise up to US$3.0 billion at a valuation of US$17 billion.
HMIL is India’s second largest passenger vehicle manufacturer, as measured by domestic passenger vehicle sales. It serves as Hyundai’s production and export hub for emerging markets.
The bull case rests on a strong market position, premiumisation-led growth, top-quartile operating and FCF margin profile.

Weekly Deals Digest (14 Jul) – Timee, ASICS, Honda, Kokusai, Sanil, Canvest, Henlius, HKTV, Rex

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: ASICS Corp (7936 JP), Honda Motor (7267 JP), Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) placements; Sanil Electric (062040 KS) and Timee Inc (215A JP) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK), Rex Minerals (RXM AU), Second Chance Properties (SCE SP).

I-Scream Media IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

I-Scream Media is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ exchange in August. The IPO price range is from 32,000 won to 40,200 won.
I-Scream Media is one of the the leading digital education platform companies in Korea. Its I-Scream S platform is used by more than 93% of elementary school classrooms in Korea.
Post IPO, Sigong Tech will have a 23.7% stake in I-Scream Media. Sigong Tech’s stake in I-Scream media (at high end of IPO value) is 157% of its market cap.

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Jul 14

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue – 98.18% Taken Up and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue – 98.18% Taken Up
Ride-Hailing Operator Chenqi Drops on Hong Kong Debut
Sam Chun Dang Pharm (000250 KS): Positive Momentum to Continue
China Healthcare Weekly (July.14) – CXO’s Disputed Business Model, Remegen Shares Plunged, Kelun Bio
10x Genomics Inc.: Expansion into the Spatial Genomics Market & Other Major Drivers
Tianqi Warns of $670 Million-Plus Loss Over Lithium Price Plunge
Gentex Corporation: How They Are Capitalizing On The Diversification Opportunities & Expanding The Market! – Major Drivers
Enjin (7370 JP): Full-year FY05/24 flash update
Endava plc: Focus on Core Modernization For Better AI Integration
Balchem Corporation: What Are The Challenges Faced In Animal Nutrition & Health? – Major Drivers

MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue – 98.18% Taken Up

By Rikki Malik

While there may be still be some overhang once the rights shares start trading, this is a good entry point
Applications for 6.4 Billion excess rights shares received from 11 applications
Rights shares will start trading on Tuesday 16th of July

Ride-Hailing Operator Chenqi Drops on Hong Kong Debut

By Caixin Global

Chenqi Technology Ltd., operator of the ride-sharing platform OnTime, closed its first trading day in Hong Kong 3.14% below the offering price, after raising $124 million in its initial public offering.
Chenqi’s shares closed at HK$33.9 ($4.3) each, recovering from a 14% drop during its debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company’s market cap stood at HK$6.92 billion.
Chenqi, also known as Ruqi Mobility, offered more than 30 million shares at HK$35 each in its IPO, raising a net HK$969 million.

Sam Chun Dang Pharm (000250 KS): Positive Momentum to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

Sam Chun Dang Pharm (000250 KS) secured exclusive 10-year contract to supply Eylea biosimilar (SCD411) to nine European countries. The company will receive 55% of gross sales of the product.
Last month, the company placed 500K shares (~2% of issued capital) to Shinhan Investment Securities to raise KRW71.4B. Proceeds will be utilized to fund the company’s global clinical trial cost.
The company has started exporting generic glaucoma eye drop to the U.S. and expects to start exporting at least two more generic ophthalmic products in the U.S. this year.

China Healthcare Weekly (July.14) – CXO’s Disputed Business Model, Remegen Shares Plunged, Kelun Bio

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

One “unique” feature of China’s CXOs is that they like investment more than drug R&D business, but the investment-driven model will result in “interest-to-conflict”, which actually “crosses the line”.
RemeGen’s shares plummet last week. In current situation of investors’ lack of confidence/trust in RemeGen, stock price may not have hit bottom yet, so no need to rush to bottom-fish.
For Kelun Bio, if SKB264 fails to deliver good data, valuation would face the risk of pullback. After the lock-up expiry, there could be opportunity to buy at lower price.

10x Genomics Inc.: Expansion into the Spatial Genomics Market & Other Major Drivers

10x Genomics recently disclosed its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024, showcasing a revenue increase of 5% to $141 million.
The company’s earnings overview indicates a mixed performance with significant developments in its product offerings that could influence its future market positioning, financial health, and competitive edge.
Positively, 10x Genomics reported robust growth in its spatial biology segment, primarily fueled by its Visium franchise and the launch of Visium HD.

Tianqi Warns of $670 Million-Plus Loss Over Lithium Price Plunge

By Caixin Global

Chinese lithium giant Tianqi Lithium Corp. (002466.SZ -1.01%) is forecasting a net loss exceeding $670 million for the first half of the year as plummeting lithium prices hurt the bottom line of producers of this essential battery raw material.
Tianqi said Tuesday that it anticipates a significant net loss of between 4.9 billion yuan and 5.5 billion yuan ($674 million and $756 million) for the six-month period.
This includes a projected net loss of between 983 million yuan and 1.6 billion yuan for the second quarter, which is narrower than the 4 billion-yuan loss reported in the first quarte

Gentex Corporation: How They Are Capitalizing On The Diversification Opportunities & Expanding The Market! – Major Drivers

Gentex Corporation reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2024, revealing a mixed outlook tempered by challenges in the global auto industry yet bolstered by strategic advancements and product development.
Net sales saw a 7% increase to $590.2 million compared to the same period last year, a performance that came notwithstanding a 3% drop in light vehicle production in the company’s primary markets.
This discrepancy highlights Gentex’s ability to outperform the broader market, largely attributable to increased take rates of advanced features like Full Display Mirrors and growth in the auto-dimming mirror sector.

Enjin (7370 JP): Full-year FY05/24 flash update

By Shared Research

FY05/24 revenue was JPY3.3bn, operating profit JPY1.0bn, recurring profit JPY1.1bn, and net income JPY749mn, all down YoY.
Enjin’s FY05/25 forecast: revenue JPY2.7bn, operating profit JPY548mn, recurring profit JPY548mn, and net income JPY380mn, all expected to decline YoY.
Enjin revised its medium-term business plan due to HR challenges and plans to release updated targets reflecting the current environment.

Endava plc: Focus on Core Modernization For Better AI Integration

Endava’s recent fiscal performance and strategic initiatives highlight a dynamic period for the company as it navigates a challenging economic landscape marked by cautious client spending and macroeconomic uncertainties.
The third-quarter results for the fiscal year 2024 saw a revenue figure of GBP 174.4 million, which represents an 11.8% decrease in constant currency terms year-over-year from GBP 203.5 million.
This performance was within the expected guidance range but underscored the challenges faced by the technology services sector broadly.

Balchem Corporation: What Are The Challenges Faced In Animal Nutrition & Health? – Major Drivers