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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jun 08
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #31 – Do Not Fear Mt. Gox Repayments and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #31 – Do Not Fear Mt. Gox Repayments

Crypto Moves #31 – Do Not Fear Mt. Gox Repayments

By Mads Eberhardt

  • It should come as no surprise that 2022 was rife with contagion in the crypto industry.
  • Numerous crypto companies went bankrupt, many due to fraud.
  • Now, the majority of these bankruptcy cases are nearing their conclusion, and some have already been completed, allowing creditors – primarily clients with assets stuck in these firms – to receive the remaining assets.

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Jun 08
0

Daily Brief Macro: Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 7 Jun 2024 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 7 Jun 2024
  • Business Cycle Watch – What if ISM Manufacturing rises to 56?
  • Fragile Energy Security: Europe’s Gas Supply Woes Continue
  • CX Daily: Logistics Is Getting Pricy in China, but Reform Will Be a Long Haul
  • US Nonfarm Payroll Change 272k (consensus 185k) in May-24
  • HEW: Cuts Decouple Unsustainably
  • Thailand CPI Inflation 1.54% y-o-y (consensus 1.2%) in May-24
  • Canada Unemployment Rate 6.2% (consensus 6.2%) in May-24

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 7 Jun 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Asian PMIs and US Economic Concerns: India leads the region with a strong PMI of 57, while Hong Kong reports a decline. The US PMI is troubling, with new orders dropping significantly, reflecting declining demand in the trucking industry.
  • Indian General Election Results: The BJP performed weaker than expected, contrary to exit polls. Despite the NDA retaining power with Modi as Prime Minister, economic activities and projects remain strong, indicating positive economic growth.
  • Economic Outlook and Upcoming Reports: India’s GDP growth remains robust with projections up to 8.4%. An upcoming China report aims to provide new insights, potentially altering perceptions formed by mainstream Western media.

Business Cycle Watch – What if ISM Manufacturing rises to 56?

By Andreas Steno

  • The ISM figure for May surprised negatively Monday, admittedly a short-term setback for the whole reflation story we have laid out over the past months.
  • There are however signs that we could be in for a VERY hot summer/autumn in manufacturing terms, and market pricing in cyclicals vs defensives are still showing support for materially higher ISM manufacturing levels around 56-57.
  • Chart 1a: Cyclicals vs Defensives. It might seem surprising to discuss the ISM reaching 56, but there are intriguing signs from high-beta economies like Sweden, Germany, Canada, and South Korea.

Fragile Energy Security: Europe’s Gas Supply Woes Continue

By Suhas Reddy

  • The European gas market panics despite 70% storage levels after Norwegian outage.
  • Disruption exposes Europe’s vulnerability due to reliance on few gas suppliers. Norway supplied 30% of Europe’s gas in 2023.
  • Rising demand from Asia eating up some of Europe’s gas imports. Competition between the two continents to intensify as global demand picks up.

CX Daily: Logistics Is Getting Pricy in China, but Reform Will Be a Long Haul

By Caixin Global

  • Logistics / In Depth: Logistics is getting pricy in China, but reform will be a long haul 
  • AI /Stanford students apologize after being accused of copying Chinese AI model
  • PMIs /Analysis: Why China’s manufacturing PMIs went in different directions in May

US Nonfarm Payroll Change 272k (consensus 185k) in May-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The nonfarm payroll additions significantly exceeded expectations, indicating a strong labour market which could potentially boost consumer spending and economic growth, even as the unemployment rate rose to 4.0%.
  • Average hourly earnings increased and private sector employment growth was robust, both factors contributing to economic stability.
  • However, mixed indicators from retail sales, production, and the manufacturing sector suggest the presence of underlying economic challenges.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

HEW: Cuts Decouple Unsustainably

By Phil Rush

  • The ECB and Bank of Canada have implemented the anticipated rate cuts, with future actions dependent on further data. Despite a surge in US payrolls and wages, Europe cannot depend on decoupling inflation to justify the risky rate cuts without a recession.
  • The upcoming Fed decision is the primary focus, with the associated dot plots expected to indicate two cuts in 2024.
  • Other decisions are expected from Thailand and Peru, while updates on the UK macroeconomic environment will come from labour market and GDP data.

Thailand CPI Inflation 1.54% y-o-y (consensus 1.2%) in May-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Thailand’s CPI inflation in May 2024 was 1.54% year-on-year, exceeding consensus estimates, suggesting rising consumer demand and price pressures.
  • The Core CPI inflation remained at 0.39% year-on-year.
  • Goods pipeline pressures are contributing to the headline, as shown by the 3.36% PPI inflation in April 2024.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Canada Unemployment Rate 6.2% (consensus 6.2%) in May-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Canada’s unemployment rate in May 2024 increased to 6.2%, marking the highest since January 2022, due to a weakening labour market despite modest employment gains of 26.7 thousand.
  • Simultaneous economic data showed declining retail sales, stagnant GDP growth, and a shrinking manufacturing sector.
  • This data indicates a wider economic stagnation, suggesting the need for proactive policy measures.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Jun 08
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Yanolja and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Initial Thoughts on the Yanolja IPO

Initial Thoughts on the Yanolja IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • Yanolja is getting ready to complete its IPO in the US in the next several months. Softbank invested about US$1.7 billion in Yanolja in 2021.
  • The valuation of Yanolja could be between US$7 billion to US$9 billion. The company could raise nearly US$400 million in this IPO. 
  • Overall, we are concerned about the valuations of Yanolja if indeed the bankers push ahead with the IPO at the valuation range of US$7 billion to US$9 billion.

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Jun 08
0

Daily Brief United States: Natural Gas, Best Buy Co Inc, Bitcoin, BurgerFi International Inc, Crowdstrike Holdings , Hewlett Packard Enterprise , Asana , Gap Inc/The, Guess? Inc, Burlington Stores and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Fragile Energy Security: Europe’s Gas Supply Woes Continue
  • Best Buy Co.: How Are Strategically Using AI In The Business! – Major Drivers
  • Crypto Moves #31 – Do Not Fear Mt. Gox Repayments
  • BurgerFi International: What Value Can It Extract If It Gets Acquired & What Makes It A Good Target? – Major Drivers
  • CrowdStrike Holdings: Will Its Enhanced AI Capabilities With Charlotte AI Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company: A Story Of Enhanced Focus On Artificial Intelligence (AI) Systems & GreenLake & Cloud Services Expansion! – Major Drivers
  • Asana Inc.: Will Their Emphasis On AI Integration Improve The Bottom-Line? – Major Drivers
  • The Gap Inc.: How Is Their Strategic Pivot In The Digital Era Yielding Results? – Major Drivers
  • Guess? Inc.: The Rag & Bone Acquisition Can Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • Burlington Stores Inc.: Growing Brand Mix & Elevated Assortments Catalyzing Growth! – Major Drivers

Fragile Energy Security: Europe’s Gas Supply Woes Continue

By Suhas Reddy

  • The European gas market panics despite 70% storage levels after Norwegian outage.
  • Disruption exposes Europe’s vulnerability due to reliance on few gas suppliers. Norway supplied 30% of Europe’s gas in 2023.
  • Rising demand from Asia eating up some of Europe’s gas imports. Competition between the two continents to intensify as global demand picks up.

Best Buy Co.: How Are Strategically Using AI In The Business! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The first quarter fiscal 2025 earnings by Best Buy Co., Inc. demonstrated some mixed results.
  • On the positive side, it highlighted that the company had better-than-expected Q1 profitability through strong execution and preparation for future growth.
  • The company has been driving improvements in its priorities and its operational metrics.

Crypto Moves #31 – Do Not Fear Mt. Gox Repayments

By Mads Eberhardt

  • It should come as no surprise that 2022 was rife with contagion in the crypto industry.
  • Numerous crypto companies went bankrupt, many due to fraud.
  • Now, the majority of these bankruptcy cases are nearing their conclusion, and some have already been completed, allowing creditors – primarily clients with assets stuck in these firms – to receive the remaining assets.

BurgerFi International: What Value Can It Extract If It Gets Acquired & What Makes It A Good Target? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BurgerFi International is currently examining a strategic decision involving the possible sale of the company.
  • This review comes in the wake of their reported financial outcomes for the first quarter of 2024.
  • Analyzing the financial data and strategic initiatives articulated during the earnings discussion can provide insights into the potential advantages and challenges related to such an acquisition.

CrowdStrike Holdings: Will Its Enhanced AI Capabilities With Charlotte AI Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. has reported its fiscal first quarter 2025 results, demonstrating robust growth and financial performance.
  • CrowdStrike’s investment appeal is anchored on its comprehensive cybersecurity solutions delivered through the Falcon platform, an AI-native software that consolidates various cybersecurity functionalities.
  • This platform strategy leverages artificial intelligence to enhance cybersecurity measures, streamline operations, and improve cost-efficiencies for clients.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company: A Story Of Enhanced Focus On Artificial Intelligence (AI) Systems & GreenLake & Cloud Services Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In its second quarter of fiscal 2024, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) reported notable performance, surpassing its initial revenue and non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share (EPS) expectations.
  • This growth was primarily driven by a robust increase in demand for AI systems, highlighted by a significant uptick in revenue contributing to a cumulative AI systems orders of $4.6 billion for the quarter.
  • HPE’s optimistic outlook is further supported by a raise in full-year revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidance, though it maintains its forecast for free cash flow.

Asana Inc.: Will Their Emphasis On AI Integration Improve The Bottom-Line? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • As per the Q1 2025 earnings, Asana experienced a positive start to the year, with revenues growing 13% year-over-year.
  • Revenue from large customers grew even faster.
  • Non-operating margins also improved by 5 percentage points year-over-year.

The Gap Inc.: How Is Their Strategic Pivot In The Digital Era Yielding Results? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Gap Inc. reported strong first quarter results, exceeding expectations across key metrics, with market share gains and positive comparable sales across all brands.
  • The company’s first quarter performance reflected continued focus on its financial and operational priorities.
  • Comparable sales for the company grew by 3%, with positive comps for all brands.

Guess? Inc.: The Rag & Bone Acquisition Can Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Guess?, Inc.’s Q1 fiscal 2025 showed a strong start to the year, with significant progress on operational, strategic, and financial objectives.
  • The company reported results for the first quarter exceeding expectations in revenues, operating earnings, and per share results.
  • Sales growth was recorded in each of their segments and gross margins expanded favorably impacting the bottom line.

Burlington Stores Inc.: Growing Brand Mix & Elevated Assortments Catalyzing Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In its recent earnings, Burlington Stores reported revenues and earnings growth for the first quarter of 2024.
  • Total sales grew by 11% compared to the same quarter in the previous year, driven by new store openings and comparable store sales growth.
  • The company opened 14 new stores during the quarter, expanding the total count to 1,021 stores.

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Jun 08
0

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | The NIFTY Swung Big But the Rally Could Continue For +2 Weeks

EQD | The NIFTY Swung Big But the Rally Could Continue For +2 Weeks

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index has been swinging wildly as of lately, but the odds look good for a continuation of the rally at the moment.
  • The index is in a pattern where it can rally for 1-2 more weeks.
  • Wait for prices in the 23500/23700 resistance area before considering a SHORT trade.

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Jun 08
0

Daily Brief Japan: Kantsu, Kansai Paint, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Full Report – Kantsu (9326 JP)
  • Kansai Paint (4613) – Friday, Mar 8, 2024
  • Higher Valuations Require Increased Return on Capital to Attract the Attention of Overseas Investors

Full Report – Kantsu (9326 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • KANTSU Co., Ltd. (hereafter, “Kantsu”) is a warehouse logistics specialist providing comprehensive logistics services, including warehousing, inventory management, and delivery of products sold by e-commerce (EC) and catalog businesses, handling approximately 12 million shipments per year.
  • The Company has also created a highly profitable business by selling its in-house developed IT systems that streamline operations to external customers.
  • In terms of sales and profits, the Company’s two main drivers are its Logistics Services Business and IT Automation Business.

Kansai Paint (4613) – Friday, Mar 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Article discusses anchoring and insufficient adjustment in behavioral finance using Long Kansai Paint as an example
  • Despite profits increasing, stock price remains low leading to valuation at an 8-year low
  • Comparisons to global paint industry benchmarks show potential for KP to improve performance and valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Higher Valuations Require Increased Return on Capital to Attract the Attention of Overseas Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Even with the 9% increase in share repurchases, the high level of cash on hand will likely be further built up, given the increase in cash flow.
  • Companies that have increased their valuations over the past year have further increased their valuations by growing their traditionally high valuations and ROE and ROA.
  • Cash allocation is a major challenge for all companies. Many companies have a payout ratio of 30%, and they have too much cash on hand relative to sales.

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Jun 08
0

Daily Brief China: indie Semiconductor and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Can indie Semiconductor Get Acquired? A Market-Defining Technology With High Differentiation & 3 Critical Factors Making It An Attractive Target! – Major Drivers

Can indie Semiconductor Get Acquired? A Market-Defining Technology With High Differentiation & 3 Critical Factors Making It An Attractive Target! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Indie Semiconductor’s Q1 2024 financial results and strategic discussion provide both encouraging and cautionary insights.
  • During this period, the company reported a year-over-year revenue increase of 29% to $52.4 million, driven by strong performance in their Autotech market segment, albeit slightly below the provided guidance.
  • Gross profit stood at $26.4 million, reflecting a gross margin of 50.3%, which fell short of expectations due to unfavorable product mix adjustments.

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Jun 08
0

Most Read: Deep Yellow Ltd, AU Optronics, JD.com , Toyota Industries, Softbank Group, Shift Up, CELSYS, IDP Education, Guzman Y Gomez, Altium Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June
  • Yuanta Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes as Names Move Around; US$2.35bn Round-Trip Trade
  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)
  • Toyota Industries (6201) – TMC’s Sale of TI Shares Is Innocuous, TI’s Valuation Remains Uncompelling
  • Softbank (9984 JP): This Time, It’s Different
  • What Did FSS Point Out to Shift Up? & What Impact Would It Have on Bookbuilding Sentiment?
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (June 2024)
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Close Deletions in June
  • Guzman Y Gomez IPO – The Negatives – Lawsuits and Management Churn
  • Altium (ALU AU)’s 12th July Scheme Vote. Renesas’ Done Deal

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

By Brian Freitas

  • With three-quarters of the review period complete, there could be a bunch of changes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in June.
  • The Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) / Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) merger could lead to an ad hoc change prior to the implementation of the June rebalance.
  • There will be 1.6-25 days of ADV to buy from passives in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.8-11 days of ADV.

Yuanta Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes as Names Move Around; US$2.35bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period now complete, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
  • Price changes and changes to dividend estimates have led to names dropping off the list of potential adds and deletes over the last week.
  • Constituent changes, capping and funding flows will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and a one-way trade of US$1.17bn. There are 12 stocks with over 4x ADV to trade.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)

By Brian Freitas

Toyota Industries (6201) – TMC’s Sale of TI Shares Is Innocuous, TI’s Valuation Remains Uncompelling

By Travis Lundy

  • Last September, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group affiliate Aisin (7259 JP) said they would get rid of ALL their cross-holdings. That signalled a future sea change in Toyota intra-group relations.
  • It meant all Toyota group companies could do that. The big moves started with a multi-party offering of Denso Corp (6902 JP) shares – Toyota, Toyota Industries, and Aisin sold.
  • Then others. Then in March, Denso announced a 2.5yr selldown of ~¥460bn of Toyota Industries shares. That meant a TI buyback was likely. We got one. Now we have details.

Softbank (9984 JP): This Time, It’s Different

By Victor Galliano

  • Elliott Management has emerged as a 2%+ shareholder in SoftBank group and is driving for share buybacks of upto USD15bn; we see this as a game changer for minority shareholders
  • Recent moves to enhance corporate governance in Japan have taken root, yet we see Softbank group as a laggard on corporate governance which been targeted by an experienced activist
  • Softbank shares trade at a 54% discount to the estimated NAV; an activist like Elliott on board could meaningfully drive shareholder value creation and a narrowing of the NAV discount

What Did FSS Point Out to Shift Up? & What Impact Would It Have on Bookbuilding Sentiment?

By Sanghyun Park

  • FSS wants Nikke’s MAU data to address revenue concerns. They also seek April and May sales data for Stellar Blade to address valuation concerns despite its recent launch.
  • Shift Up updated the prospectus with Nikke’s increasing MAU data but didn’t include Stellar Blade sales data. FSS may request further revisions, possibly delaying the IPO again.
  • Nikke’s MAU has risen but plateaued versus the previous quarter, and uncertainty surrounds Stellar Blade’s April-May sales, potentially impacting IPO pricing.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (June 2024)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • There have been no TOPIX Inclusions in 2024 so far although dozens of companies have been able to meet the key Section Transfer requirements on paper for several months.
  • However, there are some pre-event candidates we believe are worth monitoring as they have previously confirmed their desire to move to the Prime Market.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Close Deletions in June

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, there are 3 stocks that are close to the deletion zone and could be removed from the index at the June rebalance.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.6% and a one-way trade of A$83m.
  • There are 6 stocks with over A$5m to trade from passive trackers but the impact on the stocks is not very high.

Guzman Y Gomez IPO – The Negatives – Lawsuits and Management Churn

By Sumeet Singh

  • Guzman Y Gomez plans to raise around US$160m in its Australian IPO.
  • GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Altium (ALU AU)’s 12th July Scheme Vote. Renesas’ Done Deal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 15th Feb, Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), a supplier of advanced semiconductors, entered into a Scheme with Altium Ltd (ALU AU).
  • Altium shareholders are being offered A$68.50/share, in cash, a lifetime high.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 12th July. Expected implementation on the 1 August. The IE says fair & reasonable.

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Jun 08
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Kantsu and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Full Report – Kantsu (9326 JP)

Full Report – Kantsu (9326 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • KANTSU Co., Ltd. (hereafter, “Kantsu”) is a warehouse logistics specialist providing comprehensive logistics services, including warehousing, inventory management, and delivery of products sold by e-commerce (EC) and catalog businesses, handling approximately 12 million shipments per year.
  • The Company has also created a highly profitable business by selling its in-house developed IT systems that streamline operations to external customers.
  • In terms of sales and profits, the Company’s two main drivers are its Logistics Services Business and IT Automation Business.

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Jun 08
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Natural Gas, Frontline , Kansai Paint and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Fragile Energy Security: Europe’s Gas Supply Woes Continue
  • Frontline Ltd.: Increase In Global Oil Demand & Other Pivotal Growth Drivers
  • Kansai Paint (4613) – Friday, Mar 8, 2024

Fragile Energy Security: Europe’s Gas Supply Woes Continue

By Suhas Reddy

  • The European gas market panics despite 70% storage levels after Norwegian outage.
  • Disruption exposes Europe’s vulnerability due to reliance on few gas suppliers. Norway supplied 30% of Europe’s gas in 2023.
  • Rising demand from Asia eating up some of Europe’s gas imports. Competition between the two continents to intensify as global demand picks up.

Frontline Ltd.: Increase In Global Oil Demand & Other Pivotal Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Frontline management reported an impressive Q1 2024 during the earnings call due to the booming security situation in areas such as the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, which has influenced the company’s decision-making.
  • Consequently, all Euronav vessels now sail under Frontline.
  • However, the earnings were impacted negatively due to disruptions in the Suez Canal passages.

Kansai Paint (4613) – Friday, Mar 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Article discusses anchoring and insufficient adjustment in behavioral finance using Long Kansai Paint as an example
  • Despite profits increasing, stock price remains low leading to valuation at an 8-year low
  • Comparisons to global paint industry benchmarks show potential for KP to improve performance and valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

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