Smartkarma Daily Briefs

The Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) IE considers Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)’s scheme (A$0.275) and off-market takeover offer (A$0.270) fair and reasonable.
The offer is conditional on FIRB and shareholder approval. Skip Capital, which can block the scheme, has not declared its intention regarding J-Power’s offer or launched a competing offer.
Skip’s silence suggests a greater probability of accepting the scheme offer. If the scheme fails, the takeover offer, due to its structure and price, caps the downside.

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Jun 10

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Greatview Aseptic Packaging, China Oilfield Services H, Asia Cement China, CNOOC Ltd, TC Energy Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (10 Jun) – GA Pack, Asia Cement, CPMC, Nagatanien, APM, Ansarada, Genex, Hollysys
A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Jun 2024): Hs Outperform Their As. Great Wall (2333) Suffers, Utes Win
Asia Cement China (743.HK) Privatization- There May Be “Surprises” Despite Disappointing Offer Price
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 June 2024); China Mobile, Energy, Financials All Bought Bigly
Tc Energy Corp (TRP.PR.D) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

Merger Arb Mondays (10 Jun) – GA Pack, Asia Cement, CPMC, Nagatanien, APM, Ansarada, Genex, Hollysys

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU), Asia Cement China (743 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK).
Lowest spreads: Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU).

A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Jun 2024): Hs Outperform Their As. Great Wall (2333) Suffers, Utes Win

By Travis Lundy

The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND’s renewed buy streak continued this past week; every day net positive. Strong net buying. NORTHBOUND saw small net buying on renewables, utilities, and semiconductors.
AH Premia rebounded off multi-year lows, on average, this past week as Hang Seng/other HK indices fell and A-shares did not do much. Liquid Hs underperformed As by 2%.

Asia Cement China (743.HK) Privatization- There May Be “Surprises” Despite Disappointing Offer Price

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Since the China/Taiwan situation looks increasingly tense, Xu Xudong/Far Eastern Group may be eager to privatize ACC considering geopolitical conflicts and political risks. Its business is subject to strict regulation.
HK$3.22 Offer Price is disappointing, but the privatization isn’t completely impossible (The headcount does not apply now). A certain number of investors are still willing to accept the Offer Price.
For arbitrageurs, the return looks not bad. However, considering the high uncertainties/failure risks, we still advise investors to be cautious. HK$2.5/share is a price point worth participating in.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 June 2024); China Mobile, Energy, Financials All Bought Bigly

By Travis Lundy

SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$27.2bn this week, on small two-way volumes. China Mobile (941 HK) dominated as it reached dividend ex-date. Other high-div SOEs also saw buying.
It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, and the KPIs for SOE CEOs to raise prices and payout ratios, but it continues.
Valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

Tc Energy Corp (TRP.PR.D) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

TC Energy Corporation’s TRP.PR.D preferred shares offer attractive total return with limited risk over the next 5 years
Best suited for PAs and small funds in Canada due to low trading volume and tax advantages
Consider purchasing a basket of Canadian fixed-reset preferred shares for maximum exposure, potentially converting to Series 8 with a floating dividend rate based on the 90-day Government of Canada treasury bill rate

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

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Jun 10

Daily Brief Health Care: Jeisys Medical, Genscript Biotech and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Breakdown of Archimed’s Massive Tender Offer for Jeisys Medical Shareholders
China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) – New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript’s Trouble

Breakdown of Archimed’s Massive Tender Offer for Jeisys Medical Shareholders

By Sanghyun Park

Archimed aims to acquire 72% of Jeisys Medical’s shares, totaling 55,724,838 shares. The tender offer runs from the 10th of this month to the 22nd of the following month.
If tendered shares fall short of the 18,013,879 minimum, Archimed refrains from purchases. If exceeded, Archimed buys all, eliminating allocation risk.
With over 70% substantial volume and a large portion held by local retail investors, surpassing the 26% threshold seems feasible.

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) – New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript’s Trouble

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

One interesting interpretation of the new Akeso-summit cooperation is that it aims to pave the way for potential acquisition of Summit by MNC. The climax of the story hasn’t arrived.
Jacobio is a good target for potential M&A and licensing deals. So, this company has considerable potential returns and also strong safety margin, which is worth taking a gamble on.
There’re concerns that Genscript could face US scrutiny due to alleged ties with Chinese government. Share price rebound may not last considering geopolitical conflicts and CXO industry downturn in 24H1.

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Jun 10

Daily Brief Financials: KKR & Co, Judo Capital, NIFTY Index, Signature Bank, Yuexiu Property and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks
Quiddity ASX Jun 24 Rebal: Regular Index Changes + One Potential Intra-Review Replacement
EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Crushed Post Elections but Realized Vol Does Not Disappoint
Signature Bank (SBNY) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024
Morning Views Asia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Meituan, Yuexiu Property

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks

By Brian Freitas

There are 3 changes for the S&P 500 INDEX, 7 changes for the S&P Midcap400 Index and 13 changes for the S&P SmallCap600 Index at the June rebalance.
There is huge size to trade in KKR & Co (KKR US) and Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) and both stocks were up big in the after-hours market.
There has been positioning in some stocks recently but stocks including KKR & Co, RB Global and Texas Pacific Land could see further positioning in the next week.

Quiddity ASX Jun 24 Rebal: Regular Index Changes + One Potential Intra-Review Replacement

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The ASX 20/50/100 index changes for the June 2024 index rebal event was announced after market close on Friday 7th June 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs and the trends in short interest buildup for these names.
Separately, the completion of the CSR Ltd (CSR AU) M&A deal could trigger an intra-review deletion in June 2024 and the potential replacement name could have very high-impact.

EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Crushed Post Elections but Realized Vol Does Not Disappoint

By Sankalp Singh

IVs were crushed in the aftermath of Election results & in spite of lingering political instability & significant moves in RV.
Vol-Regime Switching Model is holding at “High & Up” state. Probability of switching to “High & Down” state has increased significantly.
Vol term structure is still in Backwardation – should transition to Contango as IV & RV drift lower.

Signature Bank (SBNY) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

High potential for additional recoveries with longer liquidation period
Solvent receivership of Signature Bank offers compelling investment opportunity
Potential for substantial upside for common equity, preferred equity, and unsecured bonds

Morning Views Asia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Meituan, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
Meituan
Yuexiu Property

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Jun 10

Daily Brief Industrials: Far Eastern New Century, S.F. Holding, ROHM Co Ltd, Siemens Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 24 Rebal: 15/18 Hits; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Ideas
SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23, Q124 Results Reviewed | Sales Mix Impacts | Recent Monthly Revenue Trend
Rohm (6963 JP): Negative Scenario Discounted
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 24 Rebal: 15/18 Hits; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 7th June 2024.
While the T50 and T100 index changes were perfectly in line with our expectations there were some surprises among the TDIV index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s final flow expectations for the June 2024 index rebal event and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.

SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23, Q124 Results Reviewed | Sales Mix Impacts | Recent Monthly Revenue Trend

By Daniel Hellberg

In this insight we cover recent earnings results, revenue mix, YTD trends
Fluctuating performance of its international segment impacted FY23 and Q124
Improving international segment could boost overall momentum in Q2-Q4 2024

Rohm (6963 JP): Negative Scenario Discounted

By Scott Foster

Japanese semiconductor equipment stocks have started to drop back, but device maker Rohm is already down 25% year-to-date and down 43% from its 52-week high.
Rohm’s operating profit fell 53% last fiscal year and management is guiding for a 68% decline in in FY Mar-25. Investment in power devices remains strong despite weak sales.
1H guidance is for an 80% year-on-year decline in operating profit on a 6% decline in sales. Buy into this weakness. Recovery should start in 2H.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff

By Brian Freitas

There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn (US$384m). There are 13 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade, mostly on the deletes.
After steady outperformance over the last few months, there was a selloff in momentum names following the announcement of the election results. There has been a recovery since then.

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Jun 10

Daily Brief Consumer: Capri Holdings , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Ama Group Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Capri Holdings Ltd (CPRI) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024
Challenge Is to Raise Governance and Return on Capital for More Companies Beyond Matching Numbers
Ama Group (AMA ) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

Capri Holdings Ltd (CPRI) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

Tapestry is acquiring Capri, which owns Michael Kors, Versace, and Jimmy Choo
FTC is scrutinizing the merger due to antitrust concerns in the affordable luxury market
Capri’s deteriorating fundamentals may lead to a break price of $25 per share, with uncertain success of the acquisition

Challenge Is to Raise Governance and Return on Capital for More Companies Beyond Matching Numbers

By Aki Matsumoto

The “30% female board member goal” appears to be more about matching numbers with results rather than discussing the positive impact of diversity on the board.
Over the past year, corporate governance improved only modestly for all listed companies, but few that improved their corporate governance raised the percentages of female board members and independent directors.
Given the strong influence between improvements in governance and return on capital and foreign ownership, it’s difficult for a company to transform itself without the reach of overseas investor engagement.

Ama Group (AMA ) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

Key points

AMA Group is positioned as the dominant player in the Australian vehicle repair industry
The company offers opportunities for revenue and cost synergies similar to Boyd’s success in North America
Mimval’s 2022 write-up on AMA reflects optimism for the company’s growth potential and ability to capitalize on opportunities in the market

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Jun 09

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): India’s Largest Exchange Took Major Move To Improve Price Efficiency and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

India’s Largest Exchange Took Major Move To Improve Price Efficiency
Japan Weekly | JMDC, Sanrio, Lasertec, Hakuhodo

India’s Largest Exchange Took Major Move To Improve Price Efficiency

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Overall, the introduction of the price-linked tick size mechanism by the NSE is a positive development as it leads to improving market efficiency and enhancing price discovery.
This move is likely to benefit investors by reducing slippage costs and improving liquidity, especially for small-cap and mid-cap stocks.
The move is also evidence of intense competition between NSE and BSE. BSE earlier was the only exchange to offer reduced tick size.

Japan Weekly | JMDC, Sanrio, Lasertec, Hakuhodo

By Mark Chadwick

Global markets retained their positive momentum as weak U.S. economic data renewed concerns about the growth outlook.
Next week is set to be eventful, with the FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings on the agenda. The FOMC, expected to maintain policy rates, might offer few surprises.
Oil prices, after a five-day decline, rebounded as OPEC+ extended production cuts through 2025.

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Jun 09

Daily Brief ECM: Tempus AI IPO: AI in Diagnostics at Scale and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Tempus AI IPO: AI in Diagnostics at Scale, Investor Sentiment Appears Positive

Tempus AI IPO: AI in Diagnostics at Scale, Investor Sentiment Appears Positive

By Andrei Zakharov

Tempus AI, a healthcare IT company and provider of next-gen diagnostics, is expected to IPO next week. The company plans to raise $411M at the high end of the range.
The most recent S-1/A puts the expected price range per share at $35 to $37, implying a market cap of ~$6B at the midpoint.
Tempus AI provides personalized cancer care and brings AI to healthcare at scale. They train LLMs to develop AI applications and have the largest public genomic data sets in oncology

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Jun 09

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: [Meituan (3690 HK and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$156) TP Change]: Counting on Execution to Navigate the Uncertainties
Chubb Limited: What Is Their Investment Strategy & Do They Have A Strategic Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers
Generac Holdings: What Is The Story Of Their Expansion in Energy Technology and Storage Solutions? – Major Drivers
Manulife Financial Corporation: Enhanced Asian Market Engagement and Growth Strategy & Other Major Drivers
Ciena Corporation: Increased Deployment of Coherent Pluggable Technology in Data Centers! – Major Drivers
Sun Life Financial Inc.: Increasing Medicaid Enrollment & State Contract Acquisitions! – Major Drivers
The Progressive Corporation: Leveraging Technology for Competitive Pricing! – Major Drivers
The Travelers Companies: How Are They Adapting To Socio-Economic and Regulatory Changes? – Major Drivers

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$156) TP Change]: Counting on Execution to Navigate the Uncertainties

By Ying Pan

Meituan reported C1Q24 revenue 6.0%/6.2% higher our estimate/consensus, and adjusted net income 19%/29% higher than our estimate/consensus. The stock fell on lower takeout order and in-store revenue guidance for C2Q24;
The stock has two uncertainties:(1)Strategic moves by Douyin and Eleme,(2)success of overseas expansion. There are no easy answers to these two questions but we believe the corner has been turned
We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to HK$156/share to factor in the improvement in profitability.

Chubb Limited: What Is Their Investment Strategy & Do They Have A Strategic Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers

Chubb Limited showcased a strong performance in its Q1 2024 update, with notable growth across multiple segments and a robust financial posture.
The demonstrated acceleration in core operating income by over 20% to $2.2 billion and an operating EPS increase of nearly 23% to $5.41 underlines a solid upward trajectory.
Particularly impressive was the company’s Property & Casualty (P&C) segment where underwriting income rose over 15% to $1.4 billion, underscoring a combination of earned premium growth and favorable underwriting margins.

Generac Holdings: What Is The Story Of Their Expansion in Energy Technology and Storage Solutions? – Major Drivers

Generac Holdings delivered a mixed performance for the first quarter of 2024.
Strength in the Home Standby Generator segment and operational improvements played favorable roles, while declines in the global portable generators and domestic energy storage markets were notable drags on revenue.
Generac’s consistent effort in expanding its dealer and installer networks, alongside investments in both traditional and emerging product lines, solidifies its market leadership and positions it well for long-term growth.

Manulife Financial Corporation: Enhanced Asian Market Engagement and Growth Strategy & Other Major Drivers

Manulife Financial Corporation has posted a strong first quarter of 2024, exemplifying solid strategic execution and financial performance across its diversified operations.
The company reported a 16% growth in core earnings and a significant 20% increase in core EPS, supported by robust contributions from its Asian markets and Global Wealth and Asset Management (WAM) segments.
Furthermore, core return on equity (ROE) advanced by nearly two percentage points year-over-year to 16.7%, surpassing the medium-term target of 15%.

Ciena Corporation: Increased Deployment of Coherent Pluggable Technology in Data Centers! – Major Drivers

Ciena Corporation reported its fiscal second quarter 2024 financial results, delivering a mixture of strengths and areas for caution.
Revenue for the quarter reached $911 million, aligned with market expectations but reflecting the ongoing variability in the order patterns of service providers, particularly impacted by inventory adjustments.
The adjusted gross margin stood at 43.5%, showcasing the company’s ability to maintain profitability even in a fluctuating market scenario.

Sun Life Financial Inc.: Increasing Medicaid Enrollment & State Contract Acquisitions! – Major Drivers

Sun Life Financial’s first quarter of 2024 delivered mixed financial outcomes, indicative of diverse operational strengths and challenges across its array of business lines and geographical areas.
The company’s broad diversification strategy remains a fundamental pillar, helping to absorb regional and segment-specific volatilities.
On the positive spectrum, the company witnessed a robust 30% growth in individual protection underlying earnings in Asia, driven by significant sales increases in Hong Kong and stable performance in India.

The Progressive Corporation: Leveraging Technology for Competitive Pricing! – Major Drivers

Progressive Corporation reported strong first quarter results for 2024, marking a period of robust growth and profitability.
This quarter was highlighted by an 18% increase in net premiums written and an impressive combined ratio of 86.1%.
These results represent both growth and a sound strategic approach to rate revisions and risk management, reflective of the company’s core values and business strategy.

The Travelers Companies: How Are They Adapting To Socio-Economic and Regulatory Changes? – Major Drivers

Travelers Companies Inc.’s first quarter 2024 results exhibit a strong financial performance characterized by solid growth in both top-line and bottom-line metrics, further strengthened by strategic initiatives and investments that bolster its market position.
The company reported core income of $1.1 billion, reflecting a notable increase from the previous year, despite facing a $211 million one-time tax benefit in the prior year’s quarter.
This performance was bolstered by a core return on equity of 15.4%, showcasing effective capital utilization.

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Jun 09

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Potential Merger Dynamics Involving SK Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Potential Merger Dynamics Involving SK Inc, SK Square, & SK Hynix
CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG’s Competing Offer Kicks off an Auction
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: CPMC, Nagatanien, APM Services, Altium, Austal, Shinko Elect, Hollysys
Weekly Deals Digest (09 Jun) – Teijin, Nagatanien, CF Logistics, Asia Cement, CPMC, MMG, Shift Up
Game On As ORG Lobs Competing Offer For CPMC (906 HK)
Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, “Name & Shame”, Asia Cement, Northern Minerals

Potential Merger Dynamics Involving SK Inc, SK Square, & SK Hynix

By Sanghyun Park

Regardless of the divorce proceedings, SK still urgently needs SK Inc’s stock price to rise for other reasons. That reason is to position SK Hynix directly under SK Inc.
SK Inc boosts stake in SK Square with SK Telecom shares, followed by a public tender offer to exchange SK Square shares for new SK Inc shares.
SK Inc’s involvement in the divorce lawsuit makes it a focus for traders seeking relative outperformance among the SK companies involved in this situation.

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG’s Competing Offer Kicks off an Auction

CPMC Holdings (906 HK) disclosed a competing pre-conditional voluntary offer from ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) at HK$7.21, a 4.9% premium to Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer.
Like the Changping Industrial offer, ORG’s offer is pre-conditional on regulatory approvals and has a 50% minimum acceptance condition. Changping Industrial has secured all regulatory approvals except SAMR.
ORG’s skinny premium and precarious irrevocable from Mr Zhang Wei suggests Changping Industrial’s next move is to secure Mr Wei’s irrevocable with a revised higher offer.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: CPMC, Nagatanien, APM Services, Altium, Austal, Shinko Elect, Hollysys

By David Blennerhassett

I tally 47 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: Asia Cement China (743 HK)‘s rubbish Scheme; and the low-balled MBO for Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP).
Key updates took place on: CPMC Holdings (906 HK), APM Human Services (APM AU), Altium (ALU AU), Austal (ASB AU),Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

Weekly Deals Digest (09 Jun) – Teijin, Nagatanien, CF Logistics, Asia Cement, CPMC, MMG, Shift Up