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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: KKR & Co, Bitcoin, China Jinmao Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal – Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys
  • Crypto Crisp: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Inflow Comes from Basis Trading?
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings


Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal – Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday, the S&P index committee announced the June 2024 changes to the three major indices in the S&P1500 universe. 
  • KKR, Crowdstrike (CRWD), and GoDaddy (GDDY) replace Robert Half (RHI), Comerica (CMA), and Illumina (ILMN) in the S&P500. There are 6 ADDs to S&PMidCap400, 13 DELETEs from Sm600. 
  • There are some BIG and impactful flows here. Some are very big. Netted 2-way flow on 21 June is ~US$66-80bn. But as always, details matter. 

Crypto Crisp: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Inflow Comes from Basis Trading?

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Here is to another week in crypto, following an exceptionally strong performance for U.S.-based Bitcoin spot ETFs last week.
  • Over the five trading sessions, these Bitcoin spot ETFs saw total net inflows of $1.829 billion.
  • Last Tuesday was particularly notable, with the ETFs experiencing their second-best day since their launch on January 11, bringing in a net inflow of $887 million.

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Sun Corp, MINISO Group Holding , Guzman Y Gomez, Marui Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Unsolicited Partial Offer for 19% of Sun Corp (6736 JP) – Play on Cellebrite from SPAC Sponsor
  • Sun Corporation (6736 JP): True Wind’s Hostile Partial Offer
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Miniso: Leveraging China’s Manufacturing Capacity for the Global Market
  • Guzman Y Gomez IPO – Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuations
  • Marui: A Data Mining Dream Coming True


Unsolicited Partial Offer for 19% of Sun Corp (6736 JP) – Play on Cellebrite from SPAC Sponsor

By Travis Lundy

  • Sun Corp (6736 JP) for years has been a play on its investment holding in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US), brought to market in a $2.4bn SPAC deal announced 30Aug2021.  
  • The SPAC entity was an entity called TWC Tech Holdings II Corp (TWC = “True Wind Capital”). The next day, Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) was born, trading up to US$11.00+.
  • Sun Corp (6736 JP)‘s value realisation path had begun. Today, a True Winds entity announced a Partial Tender Offer – unsolicited, unannounced previously – on Sun Corp, for 19.0%.

Sun Corporation (6736 JP): True Wind’s Hostile Partial Offer

By Arun George

  • True Wind has launched a hostile partial tender offer for Sun Corp (6736 JP) for a minimum (3.8m) and maximum (4.2m) shares at JPY4,400, 19.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The offer was prompted by frustration with the Board’s lack of urgency in closing the disparity between Sun Corp’s market cap and the value of its Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) stake.
  • The Board has three options: do nothing (low probability), find a white knight bidder (high probability), or commit to selling/distributing its Cellebrite stake (medium probability).

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Miniso: Leveraging China’s Manufacturing Capacity for the Global Market

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Miniso Group Holding Limited’s Investor Relation Specialist, Ms. Allis-Yueling Chen. 

In the upcoming webinar, Allis will share a short company presentation after which, she will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Eric Wen. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Thursday, 20 June 2024, 16:00 SGT.

About Miniso Group Holding Limited

Miniso Group Holding Limited is a global value retailer offering a variety of trendy lifestyle products featuring IP design. Since Miniso Group opened its first store in China in 2013, they have successfully incubated two brands, “MINISO” and “TOP TOY”. The flagship brand “MINISO” is a globally recognized retail brand and have established a store network worldwide of 6,630 stores in more than 200 countries. The flagship brand “MINISO” offers a frequently-refreshed assortment of lifestyle products covering diverse consumer needs, and consumers are attracted to their products’ trendiness, creativeness, high quality and affordability.


Guzman Y Gomez IPO – Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuations

By Sumeet Singh

  • Guzman Y Gomez (GYG) now plans to raise US$221m, an increase from its earlier target of US$160m, in its Australian IPO.
  • GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance in our past notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Marui: A Data Mining Dream Coming True

By Michael Causton

  • While Marui’s credit card business now has in excess of ¥4 trillion in GTVs, its shopping buildings are also doing outperforming the mall sector.
  • Sales for all 22 buildings rose 14.5% last year but as much as 24% at some buildings.
  • This is the result of new tenants, more services and better marketing based on vast in-house data sources. This data-mining capability will get better and is unique to Marui.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 7th): Novatek and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 7th): Novatek, Eva Airways, Alchip Tech, Realtek
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 7th): Realtek Semi, Asmedia Tech, Global Unichip, Yang Ming Marine
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 7th): Alteogen, Naver


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 7th): Novatek, Eva Airways, Alchip Tech, Realtek

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 7th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD101.7bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Novatek, Eva Airways, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi, Powerchip Semico, Asustek Computer, Nan Ya Printed.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 7th): Realtek Semi, Asmedia Tech, Global Unichip, Yang Ming Marine

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 7th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,400.2bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD12,832mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Realtek Semi, Asmedia Tech, Global Unichip, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech, TSMC, Ctbc Financial, Hon Hai, Asustek Computer, Umc.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 7th): Alteogen, Naver

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX Stocks as of Jun 7th which has an aggregated holding worth USD542.4bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD266mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Alteogen Inc (196170 KS), Naver Corp (035420 KS).

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Daily Brief ESG: Challenge Is to Raise Governance and Return on Capital for More Companies Beyond Matching Numbers and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Challenge Is to Raise Governance and Return on Capital for More Companies Beyond Matching Numbers


Challenge Is to Raise Governance and Return on Capital for More Companies Beyond Matching Numbers

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The “30% female board member goal” appears to be more about matching numbers with results rather than discussing the positive impact of diversity on the board.
  • Over the past year, corporate governance improved only modestly for all listed companies, but few that improved their corporate governance raised the percentages of female board members and independent directors.
  • Given the strong influence between improvements in governance and return on capital and foreign ownership, it’s difficult for a company to transform itself without the reach of overseas investor engagement.

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Daily Brief ECM: SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23 and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23, Q124 Results Reviewed | Sales Mix Impacts | Recent Monthly Revenue Trend
  • ECM Weekly (10th June 2024) – Webtoon, Shift Up, QuantumPharm, Guzman, Kakaopay, Telix, Yankuang


SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23, Q124 Results Reviewed | Sales Mix Impacts | Recent Monthly Revenue Trend

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this insight we cover recent earnings results, revenue mix, YTD trends
  • Fluctuating performance of its international segment impacted FY23 and Q124
  • Improving international segment could boost overall momentum in Q2-Q4 2024

ECM Weekly (10th June 2024) – Webtoon, Shift Up, QuantumPharm, Guzman, Kakaopay, Telix, Yankuang

By Sumeet Singh


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks
  • Merger Arb Mondays (10 Jun) – GA Pack, Asia Cement, CPMC, Nagatanien, APM, Ansarada, Genex, Hollysys
  • Breakdown of Archimed’s Massive Tender Offer for Jeisys Medical Shareholders
  • Genex Power (GNX AU): Scheme Vote on 16 July as Skip Remains Silent
  • Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 24 Rebal: 15/18 Hits; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Ideas
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Jun 2024):  Hs Outperform Their As. Great Wall (2333) Suffers, Utes Win
  • Quiddity ASX Jun 24 Rebal: Regular Index Changes + One Potential Intra-Review Replacement
  • Asia Cement China (743.HK) Privatization- There May Be “Surprises” Despite Disappointing Offer Price
  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 June 2024); China Mobile, Energy, Financials All Bought Bigly


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks

By Brian Freitas



Breakdown of Archimed’s Massive Tender Offer for Jeisys Medical Shareholders

By Sanghyun Park

  • Archimed aims to acquire 72% of Jeisys Medical’s shares, totaling 55,724,838 shares. The tender offer runs from the 10th of this month to the 22nd of the following month.
  • If tendered shares fall short of the 18,013,879 minimum, Archimed refrains from purchases. If exceeded, Archimed buys all, eliminating allocation risk.
  • With over 70% substantial volume and a large portion held by local retail investors, surpassing the 26% threshold seems feasible.

Genex Power (GNX AU): Scheme Vote on 16 July as Skip Remains Silent

By Arun George

  • The Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) IE considers Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)’s scheme (A$0.275) and off-market takeover offer (A$0.270) fair and reasonable. 
  • The offer is conditional on FIRB and shareholder approval. Skip Capital, which can block the scheme, has not declared its intention regarding J-Power’s offer or launched a competing offer.
  • Skip’s silence suggests a greater probability of accepting the scheme offer. If the scheme fails, the takeover offer, due to its structure and price, caps the downside.

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 24 Rebal: 15/18 Hits; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 7th June 2024.
  • While the T50 and T100 index changes were perfectly in line with our expectations there were some surprises among the TDIV index changes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s final flow expectations for the June 2024 index rebal event and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Jun 2024):  Hs Outperform Their As. Great Wall (2333) Suffers, Utes Win

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND’s renewed buy streak continued this past week; every day net positive. Strong net buying. NORTHBOUND saw small net buying on renewables, utilities, and semiconductors.
  • AH Premia rebounded off multi-year lows, on average, this past week as Hang Seng/other HK indices fell and A-shares did not do much. Liquid Hs underperformed As by 2%.

Quiddity ASX Jun 24 Rebal: Regular Index Changes + One Potential Intra-Review Replacement

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ASX 20/50/100 index changes for the June 2024 index rebal event was announced after market close on Friday 7th June 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs and the trends in short interest buildup for these names.
  • Separately, the completion of the CSR Ltd (CSR AU) M&A deal could trigger an intra-review deletion in June 2024 and the potential replacement name could have very high-impact.

Asia Cement China (743.HK) Privatization- There May Be “Surprises” Despite Disappointing Offer Price

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Since the China/Taiwan situation looks increasingly tense, Xu Xudong/Far Eastern Group may be eager to privatize ACC considering geopolitical conflicts and political risks. Its business is subject to strict regulation.
  • HK$3.22 Offer Price is disappointing, but the privatization isn’t completely impossible (The headcount does not apply now). A certain number of investors are still willing to accept the Offer Price. 
  • For arbitrageurs, the return looks not bad. However, considering the high uncertainties/failure risks, we still advise investors to be cautious. HK$2.5/share is a price point worth participating in.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn (US$384m). There are 13 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade, mostly on the deletes.
  • After steady outperformance over the last few months, there was a selloff in momentum names following the announcement of the election results. There has been a recovery since then.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 June 2024); China Mobile, Energy, Financials All Bought Bigly

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$27.2bn this week, on small two-way volumes. China Mobile (941 HK) dominated as it reached dividend ex-date. Other high-div SOEs also saw buying.
  • It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, and the KPIs for SOE CEOs to raise prices and payout ratios, but it continues.
  • Valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (7 Jun 2024): Chinese Tech Issue Convertibles; China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEMWeekly (7 Jun 2024): Chinese Tech Issue Convertibles; China, South Korea Macro; TSMC


GEMWeekly (7 Jun 2024): Chinese Tech Issue Convertibles; China, South Korea Macro; TSMC

By Wium Malan, CFA


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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Meituan, Yuexiu Property


Morning Views Asia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Meituan, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Rohm (6963 JP): Negative Scenario Discounted and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Rohm (6963 JP): Negative Scenario Discounted
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) – New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript’s Trouble
  • China Consumption Weekly (10 Jun 2024): Tencent, PDD, Meituan, NIO, Tuniu, Smart Share
  • RoboSense Technology: Pre-IPO Investors and Shareholders May Sell Shares As IPO Lock-Up Ends in July
  • Capri Holdings Ltd (CPRI) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024
  • Ama Group (AMA ) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024
  • Tc Energy Corp (TRP.PR.D) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024
  • Dropbox Inc (DBX) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024
  • NetEase (9999-HK): Market Share Winner, Supported by Buybacks and Dividends
  • Signature Bank (SBNY) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024


Rohm (6963 JP): Negative Scenario Discounted

By Scott Foster

  • Japanese semiconductor equipment stocks have started to drop back, but device maker Rohm is already down 25% year-to-date and down 43% from its 52-week high. 
  • Rohm’s operating profit fell 53% last fiscal year and management is guiding for a 68% decline in in FY Mar-25. Investment in power devices remains strong despite weak sales.
  • 1H guidance is for an 80% year-on-year decline in operating profit on a 6% decline in sales. Buy into this weakness. Recovery should start in 2H.

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) – New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript’s Trouble

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • One interesting interpretation of the new Akeso-summit cooperation is that it aims to pave the way for potential acquisition of Summit by MNC. The climax of the story hasn’t arrived.
  • Jacobio is a good target for potential M&A and licensing deals. So, this company has considerable potential returns and also strong safety margin, which is worth taking a gamble on.
  • There’re concerns that Genscript could face US scrutiny due to alleged ties with Chinese government. Share price rebound may not last considering geopolitical conflicts and CXO industry downturn in 24H1.

China Consumption Weekly (10 Jun 2024): Tencent, PDD, Meituan, NIO, Tuniu, Smart Share

By Ming Lu

  • Tuniu’s revenue grew by 71% YoY in 1Q24, as the company benefited from the travel industry’s recovery.
  • Smart Share Global’s revenue plunged by 52% YoY in 1Q24 due to fewer customers in shopping malls.
  • PDD plans to price products on behalf of retailers, which reflects the severe competition in e-commerce.

RoboSense Technology: Pre-IPO Investors and Shareholders May Sell Shares As IPO Lock-Up Ends in July

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shares of RoboSense Technology, a mass producer of LiDAR products and perception solutions, rose ~86% since IPO and outperformed Hesai Group and Hang Seng Index on a YTD basis.
  • Founder-Led LiDAR company priced its IPO at HK$43/share and raised ~HK$1B gross proceeds in January. RoboSense shares fell on first day of public trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange.
  • Today, RoboSense Technology became the most valuable LiDAR company in the world and is now valued at roughly $4.6B. 

Capri Holdings Ltd (CPRI) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Tapestry is acquiring Capri, which owns Michael Kors, Versace, and Jimmy Choo
  • FTC is scrutinizing the merger due to antitrust concerns in the affordable luxury market
  • Capri’s deteriorating fundamentals may lead to a break price of $25 per share, with uncertain success of the acquisition

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Ama Group (AMA ) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • AMA Group is positioned as the dominant player in the Australian vehicle repair industry
  • The company offers opportunities for revenue and cost synergies similar to Boyd’s success in North America
  • Mimval’s 2022 write-up on AMA reflects optimism for the company’s growth potential and ability to capitalize on opportunities in the market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Tc Energy Corp (TRP.PR.D) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • TC Energy Corporation’s TRP.PR.D preferred shares offer attractive total return with limited risk over the next 5 years
  • Best suited for PAs and small funds in Canada due to low trading volume and tax advantages
  • Consider purchasing a basket of Canadian fixed-reset preferred shares for maximum exposure, potentially converting to Series 8 with a floating dividend rate based on the 90-day Government of Canada treasury bill rate

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Dropbox Inc (DBX) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Dropbox was last pitched in August 2022 with nearly reached $1B FCF guidance for 2024
  • Company hit a plateau with guidance for $957M to $997M in last earnings call, factoring in stock-based compensation resulting in over $620M in FCF on an $8.1B equity
  • Despite recent drop in equity value, Dropbox offers higher earnings yield and potential upside in equity value compared to Box

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


NetEase (9999-HK): Market Share Winner, Supported by Buybacks and Dividends

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Whilst the Chinese online games market has struggled since 2023, NetEase (9999 HK) has continued to gain revenue market share driven by the success of its mobile titles.
  • Future revenue growth will depend on the continued success of NetEase’s legacy titles and its robust pipeline of upcoming releases, including several highly anticipated launches.
  • NetEase trades nearly 2 standard deviations below its 5-year historic average PE trading range, a level that has proved to be a very good entry point.

Signature Bank (SBNY) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • High potential for additional recoveries with longer liquidation period
  • Solvent receivership of Signature Bank offers compelling investment opportunity
  • Potential for substantial upside for common equity, preferred equity, and unsecured bonds

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Macro: “Wham and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • “Wham, Bam, Thank You Ma’am” – Commodities Get Slammed
  • Positive Outlook for Global Liquidity Despite Lingering Fed Policy Uncertainties
  • Is Good News Good News, or Bad News?
  • A Time for Tactical Caution
  • Steno Signals #103: A blood-bath in metals in July!?
  • United Kingdom Economy – June 4, 2024
  • Portfolio Watch: Good news = no cuts = bad news (for metals)
  • China Mainland Economy – May 10, 2024


“Wham, Bam, Thank You Ma’am” – Commodities Get Slammed

By Rikki Malik

  • “Strong” non-farm payrolls number a catalyst for another hit to commodities
  • Oil positioning is now very supportive for prices with non-commercial buying levels close to  five-year lows.
  • Copper may have more short-term downside with speculative interest still high

Positive Outlook for Global Liquidity Despite Lingering Fed Policy Uncertainties

By Said Desaque

  • The outlook for global liquidity in H2 depends on the willingness of the Fed to lower its policy rate based on data dependency.
  • The Bank of Canada reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points this week, offering forward guidance for further cuts, but the European Central Bank was not offering such assurances. 
  • US quantitative tightening was not causing a scarcity of reserves in the banking system, according to the latest Senior Financial Officer Survey, making cessation dependent on the real economy.

Is Good News Good News, or Bad News?

By Cam Hui

  • We analyzed the U.S. economy and markets from the perspective of three trading desks. The bond and commodity markets are signaling weakness while equity markets are signaling growth.
  • Investors should distinguish between economic growth deceleration, which would stand in direct contrast to bottom-up Street expectations of rising EPS estimates, and disinflation.
  • A growth deceleration would pose headwinds to equity price gains, while disinflation would be a positive factor.  

A Time for Tactical Caution

By Cam Hui

  • We are intermediate-term bullish, but disturbing signs are appearing under the hood that not all is well in the short run.
  • We interpret current conditions as a weak bull pushing price upward, but the market is fragile and can pull back at any time.
  • Our base case calls for stock prices to grind upward, albeit in a choppy manner over the next few weeks.

Steno Signals #103: A blood-bath in metals in July!?

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Sunday from a windy Copenhagen!We’ve been yammering about the copper buildup on Chinese exchanges for months.
  • Was it a strategic decision to hoard copper reserves?
  • Were the Chinese waiting to offload this copper until the CNY devalued, or a result of the physical demand in the Chinese economy nosedived off a cliff?

United Kingdom Economy – June 4, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • The UK economy is emerging from the dual shocks of the pandemic and the subsequent energy crisis, transitioning into a period of declining inflation and stabilizing output.
  • Recent data shows positive economic activity trends, with GDP growth mainly driven by the services sector, while the first quarter of 2024 registered the highest quarterly growth since mid-2022.
  • A positive outlook for inflation and interest rates is expected to boost economic confidence, increase consumer spending, and ease costs for businesses.

Portfolio Watch: Good news = no cuts = bad news (for metals)

By Andreas Steno

  • The latest job report just dropped, and it’s music to our ears—solidifying our thesis once again.
  • A few highlights:Construction Hiring: Markedly up again.
  • This is a strong cycle signal, indicating robust economic activity.

China Mainland Economy – May 10, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • In 2023, China’s Economy managed to grow by 5.2%.
  • This growth is mainly attributed to final consumption expenditure which accounted for the 4.3% growth of the total 5.2% expansion.
  • Significant contribution to growth also had the investments with 1.5% contribution and especially the public sector. 

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