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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Indo Tambangraya Megah and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ): Pure Coal Play at 4.5x PE, 50% of the Market Cap in Cash

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ): Pure Coal Play at 4.5x PE, 50% of the Market Cap in Cash

By Sameer Taneja

  • Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) reported an inline Q1 FY24, with stabilizing price. Net cash at 875 mn USD is 50% of mkt cap. 
  • If coal prices remain stable at 135 USD/ton, the company will be able to churn out 400 mn USD of profits (~24 mnt sales).  
  • With a minimum 65% dividend payout ratio, we derive a dividend yield of 15%. This number could be an upside risk as payout ratios have also been 100%.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief India: Bharat Wire Ropes , Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited, Wardwizard Innovations & Mobility, Sanstar and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas: Bharat Wire Ropes- The Turnaround and Transformation
  • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers
  • Wardwizard Innovations: Promoter Dumped Stake Under the Billion Dollar Illusion
  • Sanstar IPO- Forensic Analysis

The Beat Ideas: Bharat Wire Ropes- The Turnaround and Transformation

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Debt restructuring in 2021 reduced interest costs and improved profitability, with promoters increasing their stake by 4%.
  • Revenue and EBITDA have grown significantly, with a revenue CAGR of 35% and EBITDA CAGR of 72% over the past 3 years.
  • Strong export presence and increasing domestic market share indicate robust growth potential despite global economic fluctuations.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.
  • The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.
  • Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.

Wardwizard Innovations: Promoter Dumped Stake Under the Billion Dollar Illusion

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The billion-dollar order that had initially seemed like a game-changer for Wardwizard Innovations turned out to be its downfall as it happens to be a Non Binding MoU. 
  • While for an INR 300 crore revenue company billion dollar order was huge, hence stock price rose on the back of rosy picture.
  • Promoter used the situation to dump the shares via stake sale as the news of order led to 20% rise in the stock price which eventually raises Corporate Governance Concerns

Sanstar IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Sanstar (SANSTAR123 IN) is primarily focused in producing maize based specialty products and ingredient solutions in India. It currently occupies a market share of around 7.8%. 
  • The company has shown good growth in the last two years; however, when it comes to accounting and forensic checks there are several grey areas/unique policies.
  • Examples: Revenues are stated gross of GST and are net of freight and brokerage costs. Classification of some of free reserves into revaluation reserve, Salaries paid to some senior personnel,etc.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief China: Atour Lifestyle Holdings, China Merchants China Direct Investments, Sciclone Pharmaceuticals, New Gonow Recreational Vehicles, Meituan and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement – Well Flagged Deal, past Selldowns Have Done Well
  • CMCDI (133 HK): AGM Outcome May Provide Another Leg-Up
  • Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) Privatization Update – Some “Unstable Factors” During Voting
  • New Gonow Recreational Vehicles Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Morning Views Asia: Meituan

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement – Well Flagged Deal, past Selldowns Have Done Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • Legend Capital (LC), one of the principal shareholders of Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US), is looking to raise around US$168m through a secondary selldown.
  • This will be the third selldown by Legend Capital in just over a year’s time. Hence, the deal is well flagged.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

CMCDI (133 HK): AGM Outcome May Provide Another Leg-Up

By David Blennerhassett

  • Activist Argyle Street’s approach to closed-end investment company China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI) has a certain David Webb-like quality.
  • Apart from the deep value angle, the analysis of director Elizabeth Kan’s potential conflict of interest is particularly insightful. Argle will vote against Kan’s re-election at the 20th June AGM
  • Given this upcoming vote, as I’ve done with Giordano (709 HK) and L’Occitane (973 HK) previously, it’s useful to investigate the lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports.

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) Privatization Update – Some “Unstable Factors” During Voting

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Some shareholders have confirmed to be acting in concert at the Court Meeting, but long-term investors may vote against the privatization because they are not satisfied with the Cancellation Price.
  • The success rate of SciClone’s privatization is lower than that of China TCM and L’Occitane. If fails, there’s a high probability that the share price will fall back to HK$14/share.
  • The current share price cannot provide decent returns. Together with exchange rate risk, potential failure risks, etc., there’s no need for investors to take risks at this share price level.

New Gonow Recreational Vehicles Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • New Gonow Recreational Vehicles (NGRV HK) is looking to raise US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is Huatai International.
  • New Gonow Recreational Vehicles (NGRV) is a recreational vehicle (RV) platform with an extensive presence in Australasia that designs, develops, manufactures and sells bespoke towable RVs.
  • According to Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm held the second-largest market share in Australasia’s RV industry in terms of 2023 sales volume.

Morning Views Asia: Meituan

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Japan: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Medical Data Vision, Aozora Bank Ltd, Fast Retailing, Rakuten Bank, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Adastria Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] Palliser Gets ISS/GL Nods for Keisei AGM Proposals – How Will The Swing Vote Swing?
  • Medical Data Vision (3902) – SBI Upping Their Stake AGAIN In The Market
  • Daiwa to Buy More Aozora (8304) Shares – Murakami-San Escapes
  • Fast Retailing (9983) | Positive Q3 Outlook, but Priced In
  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – The Bank in Current Form and the Promise of FinTech Reorganization
  • Looking at Policy Shareholdings as a Percentage of Total Assets Reveals a Different Aspect
  • Adastria Bets on Diversification for Future Growth

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Palliser Gets ISS/GL Nods for Keisei AGM Proposals – How Will The Swing Vote Swing?

By Travis Lundy

  • In Oct2023, activist Palliser Capital launched a campaign on well-known “stub trade” Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) (1.6% stake). The proposal? Monetise OLC, invest for growth, be shareholder friendly.
  • Keisei responded 3+mos ago: buyback and 1% OLC stake sale but said OLC would remain an equity affiliate. Palliser re-engaged in late April (Japanese/English and two AGM agenda items). Keisei objected.
  • Palliser made their case, Glass Lewis and ISS support Palliser. Palliser likely cannot win. The goal here isn’t to win though. It is to get enough to raise management consciousness. 

Medical Data Vision (3902) – SBI Upping Their Stake AGAIN In The Market

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, SBI Holdings (8473 JP) – which currently owns 32.4% of Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) – announced it would buy another 1.91mm shares over 7mos.
  • This market purchase would lift them to ~37.4% by year-end. Interestingly, they plan to go through the one-third level without a Tender Offer. But their buying history hasn’t been great. 
  • SBI bought 20% in 2020. It fell by half. They bought another 5%. Then it dropped 50%, so they bought another 5%. Now -25% so they are buying another 5%.

Daiwa to Buy More Aozora (8304) Shares – Murakami-San Escapes

By Travis Lundy

  • In February, Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP) extended its writedowns and the shares fell sharply. By end-Feb, we found out Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought shares. 
  • I didn’t see the endgame. The pump worked, but he didn’t dump. Then Aozora got Daiwa to be a lead investor through a 3rd party share allotment, diluting Murakami-san.
  • Last week we got news the FSA had approved the Daiwa transaction. Yesterday, we got news the Murakami Group would sell its whole stake to Daiwa. 

Fast Retailing (9983) | Positive Q3 Outlook, but Priced In

By Mark Chadwick

  • Fast Retailing is due to report Q3 results on 11 July. We update our views on the outlook for the stock heading into the announcement.
  • Uniqlo Japan has already released monthly sales data for the March to May quarter. Performance in May was again strong, slightly surpassing our estimates
  • We maintain our full year earnings estimates. The stock has declined by around 6% since Q2 results, but remains fully valued.

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – The Bank in Current Form and the Promise of FinTech Reorganization

By Victor Galliano

  • Rakuten Bank, in its present form, is positioned to benefit from rising interest rates in Japan, with its low LDR, high cash balances, growing loan book and healthy capital ratio
  • The proposed FinTech reorganization of the group around the bank should drive further potential shareholder benefits; higher ROE, lower customer acquisition costs, increased active account penetration and lower operating costs
  • We believe that there will be effective governance checks and balances in place to ensure fair valuations of the FinTech segments pre-reorganization; we include our base valuations in this report

Looking at Policy Shareholdings as a Percentage of Total Assets Reveals a Different Aspect

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Toyota Group and non-life insurances, which recently announced reductions in their policy shareholdings, are well-known for their large holdings, but a look at total asset ratios reveals a different aspect.
  • Companies with high policy shareholdings relative to total assets have lower ROE and ROA as well as foreign ownership, market capitalization, and valuations.
  • These companies with inconspicuously held policy shares are reluctant to take corporate governance initiatives and face many challenges in both board practices and key actions.

Adastria Bets on Diversification for Future Growth

By Michael Causton

  • M&A is now a core strategy for expansion among lifestyle retailers as depopulation shrinks the overall market. 
  • Adastria is leading this trend, acquiring several businesses in the past year, and will now add variety stores from Welcome, the operator of Dean & Deluca, and a restaurant chain.
  • It is also developing new product lines in categories as diverse as sexual wellbeing and home decor, all part of wider plans to become Japan’s “biggest general lifestyle retailer”.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief ESG: Looking at Policy Shareholdings as a Percentage of Total Assets Reveals a Different Aspect and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Looking at Policy Shareholdings as a Percentage of Total Assets Reveals a Different Aspect

Looking at Policy Shareholdings as a Percentage of Total Assets Reveals a Different Aspect

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Toyota Group and non-life insurances, which recently announced reductions in their policy shareholdings, are well-known for their large holdings, but a look at total asset ratios reveals a different aspect.
  • Companies with high policy shareholdings relative to total assets have lower ROE and ROA as well as foreign ownership, market capitalization, and valuations.
  • These companies with inconspicuously held policy shares are reluctant to take corporate governance initiatives and face many challenges in both board practices and key actions.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Weekly Compass – Mixed Signals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Compass – Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

Weekly Compass – Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

By Joe Jasper

  • The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.
  • False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.
  • IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief ECM: Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement – Well Flagged Deal and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement – Well Flagged Deal, past Selldowns Have Done Well
  • New Gonow Recreational Vehicles Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Sanstar IPO- Forensic Analysis

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement – Well Flagged Deal, past Selldowns Have Done Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • Legend Capital (LC), one of the principal shareholders of Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US), is looking to raise around US$168m through a secondary selldown.
  • This will be the third selldown by Legend Capital in just over a year’s time. Hence, the deal is well flagged.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

New Gonow Recreational Vehicles Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • New Gonow Recreational Vehicles (NGRV HK) is looking to raise US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is Huatai International.
  • New Gonow Recreational Vehicles (NGRV) is a recreational vehicle (RV) platform with an extensive presence in Australasia that designs, develops, manufactures and sells bespoke towable RVs.
  • According to Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm held the second-largest market share in Australasia’s RV industry in terms of 2023 sales volume.

Sanstar IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Sanstar (SANSTAR123 IN) is primarily focused in producing maize based specialty products and ingredient solutions in India. It currently occupies a market share of around 7.8%. 
  • The company has shown good growth in the last two years; however, when it comes to accounting and forensic checks there are several grey areas/unique policies.
  • Examples: Revenues are stated gross of GST and are net of freight and brokerage costs. Classification of some of free reserves into revaluation reserve, Salaries paid to some senior personnel,etc.

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): SEBI on Review of Eligibility Criteria of Stock Derivatives in India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • SEBI on Review of Eligibility Criteria of Stock Derivatives in India
  • Ohayo Japan | An Apple Day
  • Taiwan Semis May ’24 Revenue Roundup. Looking Good Across The Board
  • How to Stimulate China’s Consumption? Part I
  • #12 India Insight: SBI & Union Bk Fundraise, Tata Steel, Persistent System & Google, Dominos Target
  • #16 Business Buzz: Apple AI, GM’s Buyback, Alaska Air Case and Ola Electric IPO
  • Crypto Datacenters NAV
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended June 7, 2024

SEBI on Review of Eligibility Criteria of Stock Derivatives in India

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • SEBI released consultation paper to reassesses stock derivatives eligibility criteria in line with the market growth.
  • Aiming to improve liquidity and reduce manipulation with new entrants and removal of some illiquid stocks.
  • Nuvama released list of stocks that can be possible part/exit from F&O if this consultation paper implemented.

Ohayo Japan | An Apple Day

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks mostly climbed on Tuesday, driven by a surge in Apple Inc., which soared 7.3% to a new record, marking its largest gain since November 2022
  • Japan and the U.S. to enhance defense industry cooperation, focusing on joint missile production, ship and aircraft repair
  • Daiwa Securities Group will acquire a 25 billion yen ($159 million) stake in Japan’s Aozora Bank, raising its ownership to about 20%.

Taiwan Semis May ’24 Revenue Roundup. Looking Good Across The Board

By William Keating

  • ASPEED blazing a trail with 92.9% YoY revenue growth in May
  • Quanta, WiWynn, TSMC and Nanya all > 30% YoY revenue growth in May
  • TSMC looking likely to exceed 30% YoY revenue growth in 2024

How to Stimulate China’s Consumption? Part I

By Andy Fu

  • Counting of consumption differs among different countries. Chinese definition of consumption (social retail sales) leave out many categories that are included in the definition of consumption of Japan and US;
  • If we trim the consumption of Japan and US by adopting China’s definition, China actually over-consumes, both by GDP and by individual categories;
  • If we expand and align China, Japan and US to consist the same categories, the conclusion of China underconsumption becomes true. The categories belong to an older and wealthy society. 

#12 India Insight: SBI & Union Bk Fundraise, Tata Steel, Persistent System & Google, Dominos Target

By Sudarshan Bhandari

#16 Business Buzz: Apple AI, GM’s Buyback, Alaska Air Case and Ola Electric IPO

By Nimish Maheshwari

Crypto Datacenters NAV

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.
  • Imagine this, you just bought 100,000 GPUs from Nvidia and you don’t have a place to put them or the power to feed them.
  • Not being first to market is a huge cost, as the GPU pay back times are very quick right now even for the H100.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended June 7, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.3%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.5%).
  • Energy Technology (14.6% of the index) was down by 4.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (58.5% of the index) was down by 3.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 8.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.0% of index) was down 2.9%.
  • Top 10 Performers: RCKTF, NVVE, ROOF, CVW, GMGMF, NAAS, WPRT, OESX, COMM, AMSC

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Meituan and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Meituan

Morning Views Asia: Meituan

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [JAPAN ACTIVISM] Palliser Gets ISS/GL Nods for Keisei AGM Proposals – How Will The Swing Vote Swing? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] Palliser Gets ISS/GL Nods for Keisei AGM Proposals – How Will The Swing Vote Swing?
  • Jeisys Medical (287410 KS): Archimed’s Delisting Offer
  • Korea’s Finalized Short-Selling Rules Include Limiting 90-Day Short Position Extensions
  • Medical Data Vision (3902) – SBI Upping Their Stake AGAIN In The Market
  • CMCDI (133 HK): AGM Outcome May Provide Another Leg-Up
  • ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Judo Capital to Replace CSR; Positioning Appears Light
  • Bapcor (BAP AU): Bain’s Opportunistic A$5.40 Offer
  • KOSDAQ Global Rebalancing This Week: Trading Considerations
  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – The Bank in Current Form and the Promise of FinTech Reorganization
  • Alumina (AWC AU): Scheme Vote on 18 July

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Palliser Gets ISS/GL Nods for Keisei AGM Proposals – How Will The Swing Vote Swing?

By Travis Lundy

  • In Oct2023, activist Palliser Capital launched a campaign on well-known “stub trade” Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) (1.6% stake). The proposal? Monetise OLC, invest for growth, be shareholder friendly.
  • Keisei responded 3+mos ago: buyback and 1% OLC stake sale but said OLC would remain an equity affiliate. Palliser re-engaged in late April (Japanese/English and two AGM agenda items). Keisei objected.
  • Palliser made their case, Glass Lewis and ISS support Palliser. Palliser likely cannot win. The goal here isn’t to win though. It is to get enough to raise management consciousness. 

Jeisys Medical (287410 KS): Archimed’s Delisting Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Aesthetic laser maker Jeisys Medical (287410 KS) has announced French PE outfit Archimed SAS is seeking to delist the company.
  • Archimed intends to acquire 72% of Jeisys at ₩13,000, a 20.82% premium to undisturbed. Archimed has also inked agreements with founders/directors for 26.44%, taking its possible % acquisition to 98.44%. 
  • A Korean medical device maker – not another Eoflow (294090 KS)?! Jeisys did face a patent infringement case from Syneron Medical (ELOS US) in 2018; but since resolved. 

Korea’s Finalized Short-Selling Rules Include Limiting 90-Day Short Position Extensions

By Sanghyun Park

  • The government will announce short selling improvements Thursday. A leaked detail includes limiting 90-day short position extensions.
  • Limiting the 90-day short position holding period may ease local investor concerns, but it could shrink the short selling market, potentially affecting overseas fund outflows.
  • Resuming short selling in early July may bring new flow patterns due to temporary distortions from mandatory repayment within 90 days and limitations on position extensions, increasing price impacts.

Medical Data Vision (3902) – SBI Upping Their Stake AGAIN In The Market

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, SBI Holdings (8473 JP) – which currently owns 32.4% of Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) – announced it would buy another 1.91mm shares over 7mos.
  • This market purchase would lift them to ~37.4% by year-end. Interestingly, they plan to go through the one-third level without a Tender Offer. But their buying history hasn’t been great. 
  • SBI bought 20% in 2020. It fell by half. They bought another 5%. Then it dropped 50%, so they bought another 5%. Now -25% so they are buying another 5%.

CMCDI (133 HK): AGM Outcome May Provide Another Leg-Up

By David Blennerhassett

  • Activist Argyle Street’s approach to closed-end investment company China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI) has a certain David Webb-like quality.
  • Apart from the deep value angle, the analysis of director Elizabeth Kan’s potential conflict of interest is particularly insightful. Argle will vote against Kan’s re-election at the 20th June AGM
  • Given this upcoming vote, as I’ve done with Giordano (709 HK) and L’Occitane (973 HK) previously, it’s useful to investigate the lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports.

ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Judo Capital to Replace CSR; Positioning Appears Light

By Brian Freitas

Bapcor (BAP AU): Bain’s Opportunistic A$5.40 Offer

By Arun George

  • In response to media speculation, Bapcor Ltd (BAP AU) disclosed an indicative non-binding proposal from Bain Capital at A$5.40 per share, a 23.9% premium to the last close.
  • The offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the share price collapse precipitating from the profit warning on 2 May. 
  • The offer is unattractive. Several substantial shareholders and a high retail base suggest Bain needs to bump. Bain’s offer could also draw other suitors. 

KOSDAQ Global Rebalancing This Week: Trading Considerations

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX announced KOSDAQ Global rebalancing. Annually in June, effective date follows June options expiry. Passive flow trading on Thursday, the 13th. 49 companies designated, with nine excluded and eleven added.
  • Predicting passive capital movement is challenging, but attention must be given to price impacts because reshuffle predictability is low, lacking preemptive trading setups.
  • We must anticipate the SSF reshuffle in August, likely including new KOSDAQ Global constituents. KRX plans to list SSFs for all remaining constituents, potentially advancing setup timing for price increases.

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – The Bank in Current Form and the Promise of FinTech Reorganization

By Victor Galliano

  • Rakuten Bank, in its present form, is positioned to benefit from rising interest rates in Japan, with its low LDR, high cash balances, growing loan book and healthy capital ratio
  • The proposed FinTech reorganization of the group around the bank should drive further potential shareholder benefits; higher ROE, lower customer acquisition costs, increased active account penetration and lower operating costs
  • We believe that there will be effective governance checks and balances in place to ensure fair valuations of the FinTech segments pre-reorganization; we include our base valuations in this report

Alumina (AWC AU): Scheme Vote on 18 July

By Arun George

  • The Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) IE considers Alcoa (AA US)’s scheme offer (0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share) fair and reasonable as the terms are within its valuation range. 
  • The offer is conditional on FIRB and Alumina/Alcoa shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as Alcoa already owns most of Alumina’s sole assets (AWAC).
  • The support of the substantive shareholders and the re-rating of Alcoa shares since 12 March (entry into a SID) has materially lowered the vote risk. This is a done deal.

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