Smartkarma Daily Briefs

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).
For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

ECM Weekly (15th July 2024) – Kokusai, Wiwynn, Kelun-Biotech, Timee, Shift Up, Sanil, Avanse

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, there were a number of listing in the past week, most of which performed as per our expectations.
On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows.

Zozo Still Expecting New Highs

By Michael Causton

Zozo continues to post solid gains in sales but a slight dip in new customers has led some to suggest that the online fashion mall is reaching its peak.
Meanwhile, The Japanese fashion retail sector has seen improved performance from retail stores at the expense of e-commerce, with stores actually outperforming online last year.
While further growth may be harder to achieve, Zozo has several strategies in place that should help it reach its target of ¥800 billion.

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Jul 15

Daily Brief Utilities: CK Infrastructure Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

CK Infra (1038 HK): London Calling

CK Infra (1038 HK): London Calling

By David Blennerhassett

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK), 75.67%-held by CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), announced it is considering a second listing on an overseas stock exchange, such as London.
A UK-listing makes perfect sense. In excess of 90% of CKI’s FY23 profit was sourced from businesses outside Asia, with ~50% from its UK ops.
The wording in the announcement is unclear – a dual primary listing, or a secondary listing? The LSE is also undergoing a listing regime change, effective 29th July.

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Jul 15

Daily Brief Industrials: Luxshare Precision Industry, T.S. Lines and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 July 2024): Finance, Industry, Infotech Bought
T.S. Lines Pre-IPO – Looks like an Opportunistic Listing
TS Lines Pre-IPO: Should We Expect TS Lines to Match Wan Hai’s Strength in YTD 2024?

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 July 2024): Finance, Industry, Infotech Bought

The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB +15.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought Financials, Industry, Infotech, etc. They sold Communications (which was a HUGE SOUTHBOUND buy) and Pharma/Healthcare.
It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, sector outperformers being bought.

T.S. Lines Pre-IPO – Looks like an Opportunistic Listing

By Clarence Chu

T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

TS Lines Pre-IPO: Should We Expect TS Lines to Match Wan Hai’s Strength in YTD 2024?

By Daniel Hellberg

TS Lines’ comp Wan Hai has reported strong numbers so far in 2024
But TS Lines is unlikely to match Wan Hai’s impressive H124 gains
Next for TS Lines: H124 financials and valuation vs Wan Hai, RCL

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Jul 15

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Eoptolink Technology , Kokusai Electric , Pateo Connect Technology, Coherent and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown
ECM Weekly (15th July 2024) – Kokusai, Wiwynn, Kelun-Biotech, Timee, Shift Up, Sanil, Avanse
Pateo Connect Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Coherent Corp (COHR) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

By Brian Freitas

There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.

ECM Weekly (15th July 2024) – Kokusai, Wiwynn, Kelun-Biotech, Timee, Shift Up, Sanil, Avanse

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, there were a number of listing in the past week, most of which performed as per our expectations.
On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows.

Pateo Connect Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

Pateo Connect Technology (PTC HK) seeks to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, Guotai Junan, CMBI, Huatai and Citic Securities.
Pateo Connect Technology (PCT) provides one-stop smart cockpit solutions and intelligent vehicle connectivity solutions. Its smart cockpit solutions enhance driving safety, convenience and connectivity, offering a more intelligent driving experience.
It offers OEM customers the flexibility to choose individual software and products or combine various components into a seamless and integrated smart cockpit solution.

Coherent Corp (COHR) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Coherent Corp. is a maker of optical components with a focus on optical connectivity within GPU clusters
Predicted 20%+ internal rate of return over a 3-year holding period due to secular adoption trends
Emphasis on addressing interconnect bandwidth wall issue in data centers to improve data movement speed in relation to compute speeds

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

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Jul 15

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: MMG, POSCO Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion
POSCO Holdings: Announces Shares Buyback and Cancellation of Nearly 2 Trillion Won

MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion

Friday post-close, MMG (1208 HK) released the results of its Rights Offering. 3.4654bn Rights Shares at HK$2.62 saw 98.18% take-up. New Rights Shares officially start trading on 16 July.
The other 1.82% (63.1mm Rights Shares) saw 6.383bn excess Rights Shares applications. EAFs were allocated evenly, so applicants got 0.99% of what they bid for, but hey, free money?
The new Rights Shares are expected to commence trading on 16 July. Even better, there was good fundamental news out late Sunday which should add to the general wellbeing.

POSCO Holdings: Announces Shares Buyback and Cancellation of Nearly 2 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) announced a major shareholder return policy to buyback and cancel nearly 2 trillion won worth of treasury shares from 2024 to 2026.
The company will cancel 5.25 million treasury shares representing 6.2% of outstanding shares (about 1.9 trillion won). It will also repurchase and cancel additional 100 billion won of shares.
POSCO Holdings has taken a major initiative to provide greater returns to its shareholders and this should have a positive impact on its share price.

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Jul 15

Daily Brief Industrials: Luxshare Precision Industry, T.S. Lines and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 July 2024): Finance, Industry, Infotech Bought
T.S. Lines Pre-IPO – Looks like an Opportunistic Listing
TS Lines Pre-IPO: Should We Expect TS Lines to Match Wan Hai’s Strength in YTD 2024?

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 July 2024): Finance, Industry, Infotech Bought

The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB +15.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought Financials, Industry, Infotech, etc. They sold Communications (which was a HUGE SOUTHBOUND buy) and Pharma/Healthcare.
It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, sector outperformers being bought.

T.S. Lines Pre-IPO – Looks like an Opportunistic Listing

By Clarence Chu

T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

TS Lines Pre-IPO: Should We Expect TS Lines to Match Wan Hai’s Strength in YTD 2024?

By Daniel Hellberg

TS Lines’ comp Wan Hai has reported strong numbers so far in 2024
But TS Lines is unlikely to match Wan Hai’s impressive H124 gains
Next for TS Lines: H124 financials and valuation vs Wan Hai, RCL

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Jul 15

Daily Brief Financials: China Construction Bank H, NIFTY Index, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Longfor Properties and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs
EQD / NSE Vol Update / Vega Was Bid & Gamma Was Offered
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 24: Positive Start to the Trade; Some Changes to Expectations
Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs

SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Major buying was mostly SOEs.
The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Vega Was Bid & Gamma Was Offered

By Sankalp Singh

IVs for Monthly & Quarterly contracts rose as options market baked in additional risk premia for the Budget Announcement.
Vega bid & Gamma offered – Monthly IVs higher by +2.3 vols & Weekly IVs lower by -0.5 vols. Short-Dated IVs closed lower in spite of upcoming earnings events
Term structure is trading with a kinked shape, with Monthly IVs trading at a markup to rest of the curve

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 24: Positive Start to the Trade; Some Changes to Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
There have been multiple changes to our expected ADDs/DELs list since our last insight.

Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd
JSW Steel Ltd
Lenovo
Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
Tata Steel Thailand

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Jul 15

Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Legend Biotech Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jul) – China TCM, Canvest, Henlius, Hollysys, Second Chance, Anasarda, Rex
Legend Biotech (LEGN US) – A Takeover Offer?

Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jul) – China TCM, Canvest, Henlius, Hollysys, Second Chance, Anasarda, Rex

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), A8 New Media (800 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK).
Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP).

Legend Biotech (LEGN US) – A Takeover Offer?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Legend Biotech received takeover interest and hired Centerview Partners to review the offer. Due to the satisfactory clinical results/promising commercialization outlook of Carvykti, Legend Bio is an attractive M&A candidate.
Peak sales of Carvykti could exceed US$5 billion. After Carvykti is approved by the FDA/EC for 2L treatment of MM, future valuation leap of legend Bio is becoming more certain.
Legend Bio is clearly undervalued. We think reasonable market value range for Legend Bio is about US$12.5 – 15 billion, which means there is decent upward potential for share price.

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Jul 15

Daily Brief Consumer: Great Wall Motor, ASICS Corp, Thai Beverage, BYD, ZOZO Inc, Charles & Colvard and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jul 2024): Roughly Flat Week Ahead of 3rd Plenum, Possible A Short-Covers
ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact
Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Faces Potential Hit as Vietnam Proposes Beer Tax Hike
China Consumption Weekly (15 Jul 2024): Seres, BYD, Guangzhou Automobile,Trip.com
Zozo Still Expecting New Highs
CHARLES & COLVARD LTD (CTHR) – Sunday, Apr 14, 2024

A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jul 2024): Roughly Flat Week Ahead of 3rd Plenum, Possible A Short-Covers

The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND inflow continues, albeit smaller. SOE Banks/Energy/Telecoms remain a big net buy. Percentage of volume is large. NORTHBOUND saw finance buying. Possible short-covering ahead of new short-selling restrictions/access.
AH Premia were up small on average, down small on the liquid pairs. But HSI/HSCEI vs CSI300/500 performance spreads were higher. Third Plenum this week may drive “sentiment.”

ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).
For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Faces Potential Hit as Vietnam Proposes Beer Tax Hike

By Devi Subhakesan

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) majority-owned SABECO, a leading beer company in Vietnam, may face volume declines if the proposed beer tax hike is implemented.
The tougher market outlook makes the earlier proposed BeerCo listing unlikely anytime soon.
With no meaningful stock catalyst, weak sector outlook and a stretched balance sheet, the stock could slip down after index inclusion related passive stock buying ends.

China Consumption Weekly (15 Jul 2024): Seres, BYD, Guangzhou Automobile,Trip.com

By Ming Lu

Guangzhou Automobile sales volume of new energy vehicle decreased by 38% YoY in June and by 31% YoY in 1H24.
BYD plans to invest US$1 billion to build a factory in Turkey.
AliPay announced that foreigners’ consumption amount in China in 1H24 was eight times of last year.

Zozo Still Expecting New Highs

By Michael Causton

Zozo continues to post solid gains in sales but a slight dip in new customers has led some to suggest that the online fashion mall is reaching its peak.
Meanwhile, The Japanese fashion retail sector has seen improved performance from retail stores at the expense of e-commerce, with stores actually outperforming online last year.
While further growth may be harder to achieve, Zozo has several strategies in place that should help it reach its target of ¥800 billion.

CHARLES & COLVARD LTD (CTHR) – Sunday, Apr 14, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Charles & Colvard operates in the lab-created diamond industry and plans to transition to lab-grown diamonds and direct distribution
The company experienced a challenging second quarter but has a solid foundation and potential for improved financial performance in the future
Despite current setbacks, Charles & Colvard could present a value investment opportunity for patient investors awaiting a turnaround

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Jul 15

Most Read: ASICS Corp, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, MMG, Hyundai Motor India , POSCO Holdings, Timee Inc, Eoptolink Technology , CK Infrastructure Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking
ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering
Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jul) – China TCM, Canvest, Henlius, Hollysys, Second Chance, Anasarda, Rex
MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion
Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case
POSCO Holdings: Announces Shares Buyback and Cancellation of Nearly 2 Trillion Won
MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue – 98.18% Taken Up
Weekly Deals Digest (14 Jul) – Timee, ASICS, Honda, Kokusai, Sanil, Canvest, Henlius, HKTV, Rex
CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown
CK Infra (1038 HK): London Calling

HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking

Today after the close, ASICS Corp (7936 JP) announced a very large secondary offering. It points out that as a global brand, it needs global-standard corporate governance.
As such, it says they’ve been discussing sales with crossholders. But we knew the cross-holders were going to sell. This offering is 85mm shares, ¥210bn at last. That’s big.
The stock has doubled year-to-date. Today they raised FY guidance BIGLY (+60% OP and NP). Now a huge offering. This seems like a “feed the ducks when they’re quacking” situation.

ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering

ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 85.0 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY218 billion (US$1.4 billion).
Asics’ goal with the secondary offering is to eliminate cross-shareholdings. Asics also announced a material upgrade to full-year forecasts to offset the impact of the offering.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 23 and 26 July (likely 23 July).

Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jul) – China TCM, Canvest, Henlius, Hollysys, Second Chance, Anasarda, Rex

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), A8 New Media (800 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK).
Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP).

MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion

Friday post-close, MMG (1208 HK) released the results of its Rights Offering. 3.4654bn Rights Shares at HK$2.62 saw 98.18% take-up. New Rights Shares officially start trading on 16 July.
The other 1.82% (63.1mm Rights Shares) saw 6.383bn excess Rights Shares applications. EAFs were allocated evenly, so applicants got 0.99% of what they bid for, but hey, free money?
The new Rights Shares are expected to commence trading on 16 July. Even better, there was good fundamental news out late Sunday which should add to the general wellbeing.

Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case

Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN), a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor (005385 KS), aims to raise up to US$3.0 billion at a valuation of US$17 billion.
HMIL is India’s second largest passenger vehicle manufacturer, as measured by domestic passenger vehicle sales. It serves as Hyundai’s production and export hub for emerging markets.
The bull case rests on a strong market position, premiumisation-led growth, top-quartile operating and FCF margin profile.

POSCO Holdings: Announces Shares Buyback and Cancellation of Nearly 2 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) announced a major shareholder return policy to buyback and cancel nearly 2 trillion won worth of treasury shares from 2024 to 2026.
The company will cancel 5.25 million treasury shares representing 6.2% of outstanding shares (about 1.9 trillion won). It will also repurchase and cancel additional 100 billion won of shares.
POSCO Holdings has taken a major initiative to provide greater returns to its shareholders and this should have a positive impact on its share price.

MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue – 98.18% Taken Up

By Rikki Malik

While there may be still be some overhang once the rights shares start trading, this is a good entry point
Applications for 6.4 Billion excess rights shares received from 11 applications
Rights shares will start trading on Tuesday 16th of July

Weekly Deals Digest (14 Jul) – Timee, ASICS, Honda, Kokusai, Sanil, Canvest, Henlius, HKTV, Rex