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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jun 14
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Tesla Shareholders Say ‘Yes’ to Mega-Comp Package! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Tesla Shareholders Say ‘Yes’ to Mega-Comp Package!
  • Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good
  • How to Stimulate China’s Consumption, Part II
  • #14 India Insight: Ambuja Acquiring Penna, Vodafone Idea & Purvankara Fundraise, L&T, GST
  • #18Business Buzz: JPMorgan’s $500M Biotech Fund, China’s Car Sales, Tesla’s Pay Package Approval
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/300750 SZ/BEKE US/LKNCY US
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:BABA /9699HK/DADA/JD/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/3690 HK/NTES/TCOM/ATAT

Ohayo Japan | Tesla Shareholders Say ‘Yes’ to Mega-Comp Package!

By Mark Chadwick

  • Adobe shares surged 16% in after-hours trading following better-than-expected Q2 results.
  • Tesla shareholders ratified CEO Elon Musk’s contentious 2018 pay plan at the annual meeting in Austin
  • Kirin Holdings plans to acquire the remaining 67% of Fancl, aiming to fully own the skincare and supplement company amid declining beer sales.

Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

By William Keating

  • Global semi sales for April ’24 were $46.4 billion,  +15.8% YoY & +1.1% MoM
  • WSTS now forecasts a 16.1% increase in 2024 semi sales, up from 13.1% in their previous forecast
  • We think the WSTS forecast for Memory is too high & their forecast for Logic is too low. Excluding memory, the WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth in 2024.

How to Stimulate China’s Consumption, Part II

By Andy Fu

  • Aging population, coupled with under-development of retirement pensions, is the major headwind against enhancing consumption; 
  • The headroom of urbanization as a driver for enhanced consumption is not as big as depicted;
  • Residential housing has, over the years, become the social safety net for the Chinese. Therefore, the bust of the property market takes many years, if not decades, to heal. 

#14 India Insight: Ambuja Acquiring Penna, Vodafone Idea & Purvankara Fundraise, L&T, GST

By Sudarshan Bhandari

#18Business Buzz: JPMorgan’s $500M Biotech Fund, China’s Car Sales, Tesla’s Pay Package Approval

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • JPMorgan’s new fund focuses on obesity treatments, especially popular yet scarce GLP-1 drugs
  • Chinese automakers sold more cars than US brands, marking a significant market shift
  • Tesla shares rise as Musk anticipates shareholder approval of his controversial $56 billion pay package

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/300750 SZ/BEKE US/LKNCY US

By Eric Wen

  • 1211 HK/300750 SZ: Geely and SK Group sign cooperation agreement to deepen cooperation in batteries and components.(-/-)
  • BEKE US: PBoC urge local governments and banks to implement the affordable housing re-lending program.(+)
  • LKNCY US: Luckin expands its non-coffee drinks, selling 5.08 million cups of lemonade in a week(/)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:BABA /9699HK/DADA/JD/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/3690 HK/NTES/TCOM/ATAT

By Ying Pan

  • BABA US/9699 HK/DADA US /JD US /PDD US /ZTO US /1519 HK/3690 HK:Taobao/Tmall to open one-hour delivery option to merchants on its platform (+/+/+/-/-/-/-/-)
  • NTES US: NetEase showcased their latest tactical shooter game, <FragPunk>, which is expected to launch in 2025.(+)
  • TCOM US/ATAT US : Travel consumption remained moderate during the Dragon Boat Festival.(-/-)

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Jun 14
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Historically Extreme Premium Continues; CHT at Short Level Again and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Historically Extreme Premium Continues; CHT at Short Level Again
  • Elon Set to Lose $56B Incentive? If So, Will Tesla’s AI Shift to XAI?
  • Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Disappointed
  • The Beat Ideas: Aegis Logistics: Fueling India’s LPG Market
  • AEM Holdings: New CEO = One Final Kitchen Sink in 2Q24?
  • [Blue Lotus Multi-Sector Sector Update]: Consumer Spending Weakened During Dragon Boat
  • Luckin’s Small Step into Non-Coffee Drinks Is a Big Step of Its Future Directions
  • Takeda (4502 JP)– Avoid
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Jun-2024): India limits Chinese participation, woos Taiwanese investments.
  • Why an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Probably Wouldn’t Lead to Lower Container Rates in Short-Term

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Historically Extreme Premium Continues; CHT at Short Level Again

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +21.3% Premium; Trading at New +15-25% Range This Year
  • ASE: +12.7% Premium; We Continue to View 14%+ as Fresh Short Level
  • CHT: +1.2% Premium; Good Level to Short Relative to History

Elon Set to Lose $56B Incentive? If So, Will Tesla’s AI Shift to XAI?

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Crucial Vote: Shareholders are voting on Musk’s $56 billion compensation deal and Tesla’s reincorporation in Texas, pivotal decisions for the company’s direction.
  • High Stakes: The outcome will determine Musk’s commitment to Tesla, potentially shifting his focus to other ventures and impacting Tesla’s operations.
  • Institutional Opposition: Significant resistance from institutional investors and logistical issues for global shareholders create uncertainty. Abstaining from voting counts as a vote against, hindering Elon-supporting retail investors.

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Disappointed

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) reported a weaker-than-expected FY24 net profit. Despite having HK$2.2bn net cash, the lack of a special dividend is even more disappointing. 
  • Surge in unrealised loss on gold loans and a YoY contraction in margin have contributed to the poor 2H24 result. Apr-May operating figures showed a deteriorated operating environment.
  • Lacking a special dividend, CTF no longer looks attractive at the current level. Overoptimistic FY25 and FY26 consensus forecasts mean earnings downgrade pressure. 

The Beat Ideas: Aegis Logistics: Fueling India’s LPG Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Aegis Logistics (AGIS IN) is significantly expanding its LPG and liquid logistics infrastructure across India with rising demand.
  • Currently, Aegis has a 15.5% market share in LPG imports in India which they plan to take to 25% in the next few years.
  • Surpassed INR 1,000 crores in normalized EBITDA for FY ’24, planned capex of 4500 Crores by FY27.

AEM Holdings: New CEO = One Final Kitchen Sink in 2Q24?

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM (AEM SP) announced a new CEO as of 30th of May 2024. The new CEO officially starts 1st of July 2024.
  • Amy Leong will take over from Chandran Nair as she leaves her Chief Commercial Officer role at Formfactor Inc (FORM US). 
  • Given the weak business results and inventory management issues it should be expected that Mrs Leong would want to clean the proverbial house before she starts in her new role.

[Blue Lotus Multi-Sector Sector Update]: Consumer Spending Weakened During Dragon Boat

By Eric Wen

  • Travel and box office data in the past three-day Dragonboat Holiday showed worrying weakness despite sharp price cuts by hotel and airlines. 
  • Removing travellers from Hong Kong, inbound travel was also quite bad; 
  • E-Commerce sales backed by trade-in stimulus outperformed regular merchandises, indicating consumer confidence is still low. We believe the weak travel data boded ill for consumption throughout the year.

Luckin’s Small Step into Non-Coffee Drinks Is a Big Step of Its Future Directions

By Andy Fu

  • Luckin launched lemonade drinks with raging success of 5.08 mn cups sold for the first week, ~10% of store sales. Market cheered to send the stock higher;  
  • We view it with mixed feelings. While it is margin accretive and sales enhancing,  is not conducive to improving coffee penetration and cultivating consumers’ habit for drinking coffee;
  • We see Luckin as increasingly one of, instead of the, street drink company, because lemonade is actually the top selling SKU of all milk tea vendors in China. 

Takeda (4502 JP)– Avoid

By Avien Pillay

  • Given the high number of pipeline dropouts, and the potentially disappointing $6 bn psoriasis drug acquisition, we question Takeda’s recent investment track record.
  • A big restructuring, high expectations from new/recently launched drug portfolio, and punchy company guidance reduces the probability of upside surprises.
  • Unless you are limited from investing outside Japan and you want exposure to an innovative pharma company, we believe that there are better and cheaper options elsewhere.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Jun-2024): India limits Chinese participation, woos Taiwanese investments.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • India is limiting Chinese participation in Indian subsidiaries while seeking investments from Taiwan, diversifying its economic ties.
  • AWS is committing significant funds to establish data centers in Taiwan, anticipating obstacles in securing renewable energy sources.
  • Elephantech is seeking collaborators to scale up their eco-friendly PCB manufacturing operations to meet the escalating demand. Join the sustainable production movement.

Why an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Probably Wouldn’t Lead to Lower Container Rates in Short-Term

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Its unclear whether Yemen-based Houthis would end attacks after ceasefire
  • We’ve entered peak Summer shipping season from Asia to US, Europe
  • Higher spot rates have already lifted contract rates in Q2 2024

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Jun 14
0

Daily Brief ECM: Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case

Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US), a global storytelling platform, seeks to raise up to US$500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
  • Webtoon is the leading web-comic player in all its major geographies, including Korea, the US and Japan. Naver Corp (035420 KS) and LY (4689 JP) are the primary shareholders.
  • The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising monthly active users, strong constant currency growth supported by monetisation initiatives, a shift to profitability, and cash generation.

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Jun 14
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows
  • Specifics of Korea’s Official Short-Selling Regulations, Announced This Morning
  • Sigma/Chemist Warehouse Merger: ACCC Has (Many) Issues
  • HKTV (1137 HK): 9th July Vote On Share Buy-Back

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows

By Brian Freitas

Specifics of Korea’s Official Short-Selling Regulations, Announced This Morning

By Sanghyun Park

  • Limiting extensions to four times after a 90-day repayment and mandating repayment after 12 months increases short-selling costs. The revision omits limits on position-holding cycles, disappointing retail investors.
  • Today’s release did not set a timeline for short-selling resumption. The ruling party has requested it after March 2025, with key officials present suggesting next year March resumption.
  • Regarding the electronic system implementation, core content aligns with the draft, but newly revealed institution numbers add a new perspective. Uncertainties remain on integrating overseas stock borrowing into the system.

Sigma/Chemist Warehouse Merger: ACCC Has (Many) Issues

By David Blennerhassett

HKTV (1137 HK): 9th July Vote On Share Buy-Back

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 22nd May, online shopping platform play Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) announced a buy-back of 11.25% of shares out, at $2.15/share, a 20.8% premium to undisturbed.
  • Should the Offer complete, co-founder Ricky Wong’s stake, together with concert parties, increases to 51.55% (before exercising options), up from 45.75% currently. Optically, it’s a opportunistic share grab. 
  • The Offer Doc is now out, with an EGM to vote on the whitewash waiver on the 9th July. 

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Jun 14
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, China Hongqiao, Lippo Karawaci, Tata Motors ADR

Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, China Hongqiao, Lippo Karawaci, Tata Motors ADR

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Jun 14
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #32 – Exploring the U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs Basis Trade and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #32 – Exploring the U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs Basis Trade

Crypto Moves #32 – Exploring the U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs Basis Trade

By Mads Eberhardt

  • On Monday’s Crypto Crisp, we briefly discussed the Bitcoin basis trade, a strategy in futures markets that exploits the difference between an asset’s spot price and its futures price, known as the ‘basis.’
  • Since this strategy involves taking both long and short positions of similar size, it is considered market-neutral, meaning it does not by default impact the asset’s price.
  • Given its market-neutral nature, one might wonder why the Bitcoin basis trade is worth discussing.

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Jun 14
0

Daily Brief Macro: Ban on Short Selling Stocks in Korea Extended Until March 2025 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Ban on Short Selling Stocks in Korea Extended Until March 2025
  • China’s Economy Under a Hypothetical Case of Political Liberalization
  • CX Daily: Chinese Customers Sold on ‘Elixir of Youth’ Despite Expert Warnings
  • Fed Snap (Jun 12 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways
  • China’s Long Property Bubble and Indebted Developers
  • Quant Signals: USDMXN
  • Macro Regime Indicator: Up, Up, Up still!
  • China: Five Headwinds To Long Term Growth
  • Nat Gas Prices to Fire Up on Rising Demand, Weak Production, and Shaky Geopolitics
  • Australia Unemployment Rate 4.0% (consensus 4.0%) in May-24

Ban on Short Selling Stocks in Korea Extended Until March 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • On 13 June, the Korean government announced that it will extend a ban on short selling stocks in Korea until end of March 2025. 
  • For now, the government has not given a 100% go-ahead on the end of the ban on short selling stocks starting 1 April 2025. 
  • However, in our view, the government is likely to allow short selling stocks in Korea once again, sometime in 2Q 2025. 

China’s Economy Under a Hypothetical Case of Political Liberalization

By Alex Ng

  • Rumor has it that President Xi is swaying towards political liberalization
  • Facts are that there are too many local representatives with regional differences rejecting Xi’s plan
  • Economies will thrive and the current chips shortage maybe overcome under liberalization

CX Daily: Chinese Customers Sold on ‘Elixir of Youth’ Despite Expert Warnings

By Caixin Global

  • In Depth: Chinese customers sold on ‘elixir of youth’ despite expert warnings 
  • Suspect arrested in stabbing of four American college teachers in China
  • Executive at ICBC’s Beijing branch investigated for suspected graft

Fed Snap (Jun 12 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

By Thomas Lam

  • Since the FOMC decision to remain on-hold in June was unsurprising, the emphasis was on the accompanying statement, dotplot and presser 
  • The post-meeting statement tilted somewhat dovishly, but the 2024 median dot skewed more hawkishly
  • While a July rate cut remains remote, the odds of a September or November pivot have increased following the June FOMC 

China’s Long Property Bubble and Indebted Developers

By Alex Ng

  • China policymakers’ deleveraging pressures on property developers have been supplemented by recent common prosperity measures to ensure that “housing is for living and not for speculation”.
  • This has raised concerns of a major property developer bankruptcy and questions of whether China’s highly valued property market could finally see a housing bust.
  • Chinese authorities have huge economic and political incentives to ensure that deleveraging pressure is followed by support as property developers deleverage.

Quant Signals: USDMXN

By Andreas Steno

  • The case for a stronger MXNMXN sold off massively following the Mexican election last week but we still view the MXN as a clear-cut ‘trade balance’ play.
  • As long as the trade ties between China and the US increasingly necessitate a ‘value-add middleman,’ Mexico remains in an advantageous position, regardless of whether the president is Sheinbaum or Obrador.
  • Our PCA model reveals that USDMXN is trading very rich compared to macro factors.

Macro Regime Indicator: Up, Up, Up still!

By Andreas Steno

  • In May we concluded that: “In May, our models hint of an “Up,Up,Up” environment in inflation, growth and liquidity, which is a decently positive indicator for risk assets, but also for broader reflationary trades returning through the month and into June.” The above conclusion has held true to a large extent and we went against the prevailing consensus driven by the “slowdonistas” when needed during the latter parts of April.
  • For June/July, we see an increasing liquidity trend from right about now, while the growth- and inflation cycle cyclically heats up still, while some lagged effects pull in the opposite direction.
  • From a market perspective, the overwhelming conclusion is that we will continue in an up, up, up macro regime referring to the liquidity cycle, growth cycle and cyclical price/inflation cycle.

China: Five Headwinds To Long Term Growth

By Alex Ng

  • The catch-up productivity argument would point towards 4-5% growth in China in the 2025- 2030 period.
  • We are concerned that the residential property downturn and rewiring of global supply chains will be persistent headwinds for China GDP growth in the coming years.
  • The switch to state socialism under President Xi means China is unlikely to have as much productivity pick- up as in Japan and South Korea in their earlier development stage.

Nat Gas Prices to Fire Up on Rising Demand, Weak Production, and Shaky Geopolitics

By Suhas Reddy

  • The EIA expects US natural gas production to fall by 1% in 2024 and lifted LNG price forecast for Henry Hub benchmark by 13% for the year.
  • OPEC’s 2024 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 2.25m bpd. But IEA lowered its projection to 960k bpd from 1.1m bpd.
  • Russia, Iraq, & Kazakhstan continued to oversupply despite lowering production MoM in May.

Australia Unemployment Rate 4.0% (consensus 4.0%) in May-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Australia’s unemployment rate decreased to 4.0% in May 2024, with an addition of 39,700 jobs, demonstrating the resilience of the labour market.
  • Economic indicators show a split in recovery, with a strong service sector performance (PMI Services 52.5).
  • The robust service sector is offset by vulnerabilities in the manufacturing sector (PMI Manufacturing 49.7) and slow growth in consumer spending (retail sales 0.1% m-o-m in April 2024).
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Jun 14
0

Daily Brief Australia: Sigma Healthcare and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sigma/Chemist Warehouse Merger: ACCC Has (Many) Issues

Sigma/Chemist Warehouse Merger: ACCC Has (Many) Issues

By David Blennerhassett

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Jun 14
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Webtoon Entertainment and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Specifics of Korea’s Official Short-Selling Regulations, Announced This Morning
  • Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case

Specifics of Korea’s Official Short-Selling Regulations, Announced This Morning

By Sanghyun Park

  • Limiting extensions to four times after a 90-day repayment and mandating repayment after 12 months increases short-selling costs. The revision omits limits on position-holding cycles, disappointing retail investors.
  • Today’s release did not set a timeline for short-selling resumption. The ruling party has requested it after March 2025, with key officials present suggesting next year March resumption.
  • Regarding the electronic system implementation, core content aligns with the draft, but newly revealed institution numbers add a new perspective. Uncertainties remain on integrating overseas stock borrowing into the system.

Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US), a global storytelling platform, seeks to raise up to US$500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
  • Webtoon is the leading web-comic player in all its major geographies, including Korea, the US and Japan. Naver Corp (035420 KS) and LY (4689 JP) are the primary shareholders.
  • The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising monthly active users, strong constant currency growth supported by monetisation initiatives, a shift to profitability, and cash generation.

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Jun 14
0

Daily Brief Singapore: AEM and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • AEM Holdings: New CEO = One Final Kitchen Sink in 2Q24?

AEM Holdings: New CEO = One Final Kitchen Sink in 2Q24?

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM (AEM SP) announced a new CEO as of 30th of May 2024. The new CEO officially starts 1st of July 2024.
  • Amy Leong will take over from Chandran Nair as she leaves her Chief Commercial Officer role at Formfactor Inc (FORM US). 
  • Given the weak business results and inventory management issues it should be expected that Mrs Leong would want to clean the proverbial house before she starts in her new role.

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