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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China’s Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn’t ASML and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China’s Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn’t ASML
  • EU’s Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part I
  • Global Credit Growth – Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine
  • Japan Weekly | Fancl, Monotaro, Taiyo Yuden, Toho
  • #19Business Buzz: BOJ Yen Drop, Tesla’s $56B Pay Deal, G7’s Ukraine Support
  • #15 India Insight: Sensex Crossed Hongkong Market, Vodafone to Sell Indus Stake, Adani Ent
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 14/06/2024


China’s Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn’t ASML

By Robert McKay

  • In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);
  • The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;
  • The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI’s scaling law. So far the balance tips in disfavor of China. 

EU’s Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part I

By Eric Wen

  • About a year ago, we started collating battery investments in the European Union. At the time we conclude between 1/4 to a 1/3 were originated from China;
  • A year later, we revisited and found the ratio has increased. With the latest EU tariff on China-made EV’s, we expect Chinese capacity buildups to quicken;
  • A total of 1,742 GWh of projects are supposed to go online in EU countries, representing investment of US$150bn, among which China related GWh and investment is ~25%. 

Global Credit Growth – Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.
  • Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year.
  • Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.

Japan Weekly | Fancl, Monotaro, Taiyo Yuden, Toho

By Mark Chadwick

  • The US labor market showed resilience with 272,000 jobs added in May, well above the forecasted 180,000
  • Fancl’s share price surged by 15% following a report by the Nikkei indicating that Kirin Holdings plans to acquire the company
  • Toho’s share price fell by 10% this week, driven by disappointing revenue figures for May

#19Business Buzz: BOJ Yen Drop, Tesla’s $56B Pay Deal, G7’s Ukraine Support

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Yen weakened 0.8% while bond futures surged after BOJ postponed debt-buying details
  • Shareholders endorsed Musk’s compensation and Tesla’s incorporation shift to Texas
  • G7 to use profits from frozen Russian assets for $50 billion in loans to Ukraine

#15 India Insight: Sensex Crossed Hongkong Market, Vodafone to Sell Indus Stake, Adani Ent

By Sudarshan Bhandari


AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 14/06/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • Chariot (CHAR LN) C: target price of £0.50 per share: High impact well offshore Morocco on track to spud in August – The FY23 financials were in line with our forecasts.
  • The high impact Anchois East well is expected to spud in August.
  • A drilling success could increase the size of Anchois to over 1 tcf (300 bcf net to Chariot).

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Daily Brief ECM: Shift Up IPO – Refiling and Other Updates and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift Up IPO – Refiling and Other Updates, Not Ranked at the Top Anymore
  • Clarifying BRV’s Post-Block Deal Lockup Conditions Involving Ecopro Materials
  • Webtoon Entertainment Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Relatively Small in Operating Scale as a Platform
  • Enchem Placement- Easily Digestible but a Punt at Best


Shift Up IPO – Refiling and Other Updates, Not Ranked at the Top Anymore

By Sumeet Singh

  • Shift Up (462870 KS) plans to raise up to US$320m in its South Korean IPO.
  • Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance, undertaken a peer comparison and talked about valuations in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the refiling and other updates.

Clarifying BRV’s Post-Block Deal Lockup Conditions Involving Ecopro Materials

By Sanghyun Park

  • In Korea, the lockup period for block deals is set by the seller and underwriters, not by law, and can be adjusted if both parties agree.
  • BRV obtained consent from Goldman, UBS, and KB for a second block deal after assessing that many initial buyers had sold their shares.
  • Understanding this lockup structure provides key insights into predicting when the next block deal might occur.

Webtoon Entertainment Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Relatively Small in Operating Scale as a Platform

By Ethan Aw

  • Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its US IPO.
  • Webtoon Entertainment is a global storytelling platform where a community of creators and users discover, create and share new content.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Enchem Placement- Easily Digestible but a Punt at Best

By Ethan Aw

  • Woori PE, NH PE and KDB Capital seek to raise around KRW195bn (US$141m) through a secondary block deal, selling 0.71m shares (3.64% of TSO) of Enchem (348370 KS).
  • The deal is a small one to digest at only 1.1 days of three-month ADV. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Plover Bay 1523 HK Earnings Preview: Strong H1 FY24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Plover Bay 1523 HK Earnings Preview: Strong H1 FY24, Rerating to Continue
  • Shiseido (4911 JP):  Brainstorming For Potential Buyers
  • Dickson Concepts (113 HK): 38% Discount to NCAV, 8.6% Dividend Yield, Steady FY24
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Jun-2024): 5G products made by Nokia and Foxconn in northern Vietnam.
  • Intel Warns That Its Foundry Strategy Is “Highly Risky” & Its Success Is “Highly Uncertain”
  • #1 Forensic Foresight: SEBI Warns ICICI Bank, Suzlon Director Resign, Wardwizard Disguise
  • Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP): Full-year FY04/24 flash update
  • Oryzon Genomics – Encouraging interim update on FRIDA
  • GA Technologies (3491 JP): 1H FY10/24 flash update
  • UnitedHealth Group Incorporated: Initiation of Coverage – A Dive Into The Integrated Strategy Of This Healthcare Industry Leader! – Major Drivers


Plover Bay 1523 HK Earnings Preview: Strong H1 FY24, Rerating to Continue

By Sameer Taneja

  • We expect strong 30-35% YoY earnings growth in Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) for its earnings to be released in July for H1 FY24. 
  • We expect the company to continue its 80% dividend payout ratio, which will result in a 4% semi-annual yield (8% annualized). 
  • Trading at 12.2x with >50% ROEs and net cash of >30 mn USD, we expect the strong results to catalyze a further multiple rerate.

Shiseido (4911 JP):  Brainstorming For Potential Buyers

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Today, according to public news, Kirin Holdings will launch a tender offer for Fancl Corp (4921 JP) at a likely 30% premium. 
  • The beauty industry is historically ripe with M&A deals.  It is not hard to see why, as the global beauty sector trades at a hefty valuation multiple. 
  • In this insight, we brainstorm for potential buyers of Shiseido Company (4911 JP) and analyze the viability of such. 

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): 38% Discount to NCAV, 8.6% Dividend Yield, Steady FY24

By Sameer Taneja

  • Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) reported earnings growth of 39% YoY, led mostly by an increase in interest income on the 9.6 HKD/share of net cash/investments on the balance sheet. 
  • The company’s net current asset value (NCAV) expanded to 8.2 HKD/share (Vs. FY23: 7.6 HKD/share), and with the stock at 5.2 HKD/share, it trades at a 37% discount to NCAV. 
  • The dividend was increased to 45 cents ( from FY23:35 cents/share), placing the stock at an attractive dividend yield of 8.6%.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Jun-2024): 5G products made by Nokia and Foxconn in northern Vietnam.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Nokia and Foxconn are collaborating to manufacture 5G products in northern Vietnam, potentially boosting the country’s tech industry.
  • Huawei’s entry into the automotive tier-1 market raises questions about its impact on traditional car manufacturers.
  • The UK semiconductor industry and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) are highlighted at London Tech Week, showcasing their importance in the tech world.

Intel Warns That Its Foundry Strategy Is “Highly Risky” & Its Success Is “Highly Uncertain”

By William Keating

  • Intel’s 2023 10K includes two new risk sections relating to its foundry plans and Smart Capital approach to funding them. 
  • It labels its foundry plan as “Highly Risky” and rates its chances of success as “highly uncertain”
  • They also helpfully warn that they have “limited experience” with the third party foundry business, just FYI

#1 Forensic Foresight: SEBI Warns ICICI Bank, Suzlon Director Resign, Wardwizard Disguise

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Forensic Forsight will be a bi-monthly report covering Indian companies having corporate governance issues guiding investors on strengthening their ESG investment framework
  • The issue covers SEBI warning against ICICI Bank for manipulation in delisting process of its key subsidiary.
  • The report also covers how a EV company disguises shareholders while an Indian renewable energy company is under scrutiny owing to Independent Director Resignation

Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP): Full-year FY04/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 9.2% YoY to JPY5.8bn, driven by economic recovery and increased inbound demand.
  • Operating profit decreased by 52.5% YoY to JPY567mn due to higher advertising and promotional expenses.
  • Financial business revenue rose 14.9% YoY to JPY2.5bn, with a 29.4% YoY decrease in operating profit to JPY371mn.

Oryzon Genomics – Encouraging interim update on FRIDA

By Edison Investment Research

Oryzon Genomics has reported positive interim data from the Phase Ib FRIDA study, evaluating iadademstat in combination with gilteritinib in advanced acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients. Results from the first two cohorts (13 patients) showed a favourable safety profile and efficacy signals, with 69% of patients reporting bone marrow (BM) blast cell clearance in the first cycle. Moreover, 38% of patients achieved complete remission with full or partial hematologic or blood count recovery. While we caution against direct read across between clinical trials, this compares favourably to the 26.3% rate (excluding remissions after bone marrow transplantation during the trial) delivered by gilteritinib in the Phase III ADMIRAL study, potentially supporting the synergy of the combination. Oryzon noted that the first two cohorts achieved full target engagement and indicated the scope for dose reduction (to aid faster platelet recovery) under the FDA’s OPTIMUS guidance. A third cohort is being recruited following this guidance.


GA Technologies (3491 JP): 1H FY10/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue for 1H FY10/24 was JPY85.9bn, up 35.5% YoY, with a business profit of JPY2.2bn, up 146.1% YoY.
  • RENOSY Marketplace business revenue was JPY83.6bn, up 35.3% YoY, and ITANDI business revenue was JPY2.1bn, up 34.1% YoY.
  • FY10/24 company forecast revised to JPY185.0bn in revenue and JPY3.7bn in business profit, with EPS unchanged at JPY45.90.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated: Initiation of Coverage – A Dive Into The Integrated Strategy Of This Healthcare Industry Leader! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • UnitedHealth Group has reported its first quarter financial results for 2024, which reflect the resilience and adaptive capacity of the organization amidst significant challenges, most notably the Change Healthcare cyberattack.
  • In addressing the cyberattack, UnitedHealth Group has showcased robust crisis management capabilities, responding swiftly to ensure continuity in care provision and financial support for affected healthcare providers.
  • The financial impact of the cyberattack has been substantial, with approximately $870 million in total impact to the quarter and an anticipated full-year impact in the range of $1.15 to $1.35 per share.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: The Latest on the Rumors Surrounding the Death of Chung Mong-Koo of Hyundai Motor Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • The Latest on the Rumors Surrounding the Death of Chung Mong-Koo of Hyundai Motor Group
  • Another Block Deal Sale of Ecopro Materials
  • Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP)’s Light JPY2,690 Tender Offer
  • Fancl (4921) TOB – Kirin (2503) Does the Inevitable and Takes Out Minorities. Lightish But…
  • Helios Techno Holding (6927) – RS Won’t Bid Higher, Market Sees Value
  • FII’s High Short Positions on Indian Markets : Crisis or Opportunity
  • Block Deal Sale of 3.6% Shares of Enchem
  • EQD | Is the HSI Correction Going to Continue? (Yes, For 1-2 Weeks)


The Latest on the Rumors Surrounding the Death of Chung Mong-Koo of Hyundai Motor Group

By Sanghyun Park

  • Early this morning, rumors spread that Hyundai’s honorary chairman Chung Mong-koo was hospitalized and died, causing stock prices to surge, but Hyundai denied this news.
  • Control of Hyundai hinges on increasing the stake in Mobis. Chung Eui-sun aims to keep Mobis’s stock low, but Chung Mong-koo’s health complicates timing and strategy.
  • Mobis’s trading point depends on Chung Mong-koo’s health. Three scenarios: he’s healthy, critically ill, or deceased. Current rumors’ price impacts are unlikely to subside soon.

Another Block Deal Sale of Ecopro Materials

By Douglas Kim

  • Shares of EcoPro Materials are down 16% today to 112,300 won, due to another block deal sale of by BRV Capital in the after hours trading on 13 June.
  • After the second block deal sale on 14 June, BRV’s stake declined further from 21.2% to 18.2%. 
  • This block deal sale at a big discount is likely to raise overhang concerns about further block deal sales by BRV Capital in the coming months/years.

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP)’s Light JPY2,690 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Fancl Corp (4921 JP) recommended Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s tender offer of JPY2,690, a 42.7% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The timing looks opportunistic as Fancl’s shares are down 20% YTD. The offer period is from 17 June to 29 July.
  • While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the offer price is light. 

Fancl (4921) TOB – Kirin (2503) Does the Inevitable and Takes Out Minorities. Lightish But…

By Travis Lundy

  • Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) bought a 33% stake from the founder and several others in August 2019. Five years later, they are coming back for the rest. 
  • The price here is ¥2,690/share which is a 42.7% premium from yesterday’s close. Kirin paid 20+% more in 2019. Earnings fell, but they paid 37x NTM. This is 32x. 
  • This is lightish… but…  this should get done. Activism would be difficult. There are enough shareholders who should be OK getting out. This should trade tight.

Helios Techno Holding (6927) – RS Won’t Bid Higher, Market Sees Value

By Travis Lundy

  • Today at noon JST, Rs Technologies (3445 JP) released an announcement on TDNet, “Our policy regarding the tender offer for Helios Techno Holding Co., Ltd. shares”
  • In it, they indicated that the price offered – ¥825/share – is a price which “fully returns to general shareholders the increased enterprise value that will result from [transaction] synergies.”
  • They acknowledge the market price is trading higher than the TOB Price, but say they have no plans to raise the Tender Offer Price. So now what? It depends.

FII’s High Short Positions on Indian Markets : Crisis or Opportunity

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • It is important for investors to not get swayed by popular narratives and instead look at the data and historical patterns to make informed decisions. 
  • While a large short position by FIIs may seem concerning, it could actually signal a potential opportunity for positive returns in the Nifty 50 index. 
  • By understanding the reasons behind this contrarian move and the historical trends, investors can navigate bet when FII’s short positions are high.

Block Deal Sale of 3.6% Shares of Enchem

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 14 June, it was reported that Woori PE/other investors will be selling 705,384 shares of Enchem in a block deal, representing 3.6% of outstanding shares. 
  • The block deal discount rate ranges from 6.9% to 8.92%, resulting in potential block deal sale price of 270,500 won to 276,500 won.
  • We would not subscribe to this block deal and we are concerned about the valuations of Enchem after a sharp share price appreciation this year.

EQD | Is the HSI Correction Going to Continue? (Yes, For 1-2 Weeks)

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index correction has restarted this week, after a brief 1-week bounce.
  • The index may continue to downtrend for another 1-2 weeks, then a reversal should come and the uptrend should restart.
  • Look at the price support area in the 17500-17000 range, because that is where my model indicates the highest chance of LONG reversal.

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Daily Brief Macro: Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 14 Jun 2024 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 14 Jun 2024
  • CX Daily: How the EU’s New Tariff Hikes Will Affect China-Made EVs
  • Japan Policy Rate 0.1% in Jun-24
  • HEW: Backing-Out of Early Cuts
  • Sweden CPI Inflation 3.7% y-o-y (consensus 3.5%) in May-24


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 14 Jun 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • US CPI and Fed: US CPI at 0, potential Fed rate cuts speculated, cautious outlook from Fed.
  • China Optimism: “Age of Plenty” report shows optimism due to exports, tech, infrastructure.
  • Global Confidence: China improves, Thailand face declines and political challenges; Japan struggles despite stimulus.

CX Daily: How the EU’s New Tariff Hikes Will Affect China-Made EVs

By Caixin Global

  • How the EU’s new tariff hikes will affect China-made EVs
  • Hong Kong creates task force to investigate university management’s escalating spat
  • Bankrupt Sichuan Trust seeks investors to bring business back

Japan Policy Rate 0.1% in Jun-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The BOJ maintained its policy rate at 0.0-0.1%, aligning with expectations and signalling a gradual approach to policy normalization. It plans to reduce JGB purchases over the next one to two years.
  • Global conditions, domestic economic indicators, inflation dynamics, financial market stability, and government measures will influence future interest rate decisions.
  • The BOJ’s strategy focuses on sustaining economic recovery and ensuring financial stability, with the flexibility to adjust policies based on evolving economic and financial conditions.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

HEW: Backing-Out of Early Cuts

By Phil Rush

  • FOMC members initially favored only one cut this year, but due to low US inflation, they shifted their view, aligning with the prediction for a September cut. High UK wage inflation and sustained GDP resilience are expected to prevent the BoE from making a cut.
  • The BoE is expected to make a decision soon, with the accompanying statement likely to maintain support for a cut.
  • CPI inflation being a tenth above the consensus may not affect the BoE’s decision, but a greater upside could influence them.

Sweden CPI Inflation 3.7% y-o-y (consensus 3.5%) in May-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Sweden’s CPI inflation rate was 3.7% year-on-year in May 2024, a decrease from the previous 3.9%, indicating a cooling trend that is significantly below the 1-year average but 0.2 percentage points above consensus.
  • The CPIF inflation rate was relatively subdued at 2.3% year-on-year.
  • Modest increases in PPI and household lending suggest stabilizing input costs, signalling a cautious economic outlook.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Mapletree Logistics Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Recent Net Retail Flow in Singapore Stocks


Recent Net Retail Flow in Singapore Stocks

By Geoff Howie

  • Singapore stocks have booked net retail inflow of S$1.01 billion in the 2024 year to 13 June, comprised of S$959 million in 1Q24 and S$50 million in 2Q24.
  • While the 2Q24 net inflow looks to have slowed considerably, S$597 million of net retail outflow in the trio of Banks has offset S$646 million of net retail inflow to other Singapore stocks.
  • As noted above, coinciding with price gains, UOB booked the most net selling by retail investors in the 2Q24 (to 13 June) at S$366 million, which followed S$10 million of net retail buying in 1Q24.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Mobis, EcoPro Materials, Shift Up, Webtoon Entertainment, Enchem and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • The Latest on the Rumors Surrounding the Death of Chung Mong-Koo of Hyundai Motor Group
  • Another Block Deal Sale of Ecopro Materials
  • Shift Up IPO – Refiling and Other Updates, Not Ranked at the Top Anymore
  • Clarifying BRV’s Post-Block Deal Lockup Conditions Involving Ecopro Materials
  • Webtoon Entertainment Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Relatively Small in Operating Scale as a Platform
  • Block Deal Sale of 3.6% Shares of Enchem
  • Enchem Placement- Easily Digestible but a Punt at Best


The Latest on the Rumors Surrounding the Death of Chung Mong-Koo of Hyundai Motor Group

By Sanghyun Park

  • Early this morning, rumors spread that Hyundai’s honorary chairman Chung Mong-koo was hospitalized and died, causing stock prices to surge, but Hyundai denied this news.
  • Control of Hyundai hinges on increasing the stake in Mobis. Chung Eui-sun aims to keep Mobis’s stock low, but Chung Mong-koo’s health complicates timing and strategy.
  • Mobis’s trading point depends on Chung Mong-koo’s health. Three scenarios: he’s healthy, critically ill, or deceased. Current rumors’ price impacts are unlikely to subside soon.

Another Block Deal Sale of Ecopro Materials

By Douglas Kim

  • Shares of EcoPro Materials are down 16% today to 112,300 won, due to another block deal sale of by BRV Capital in the after hours trading on 13 June.
  • After the second block deal sale on 14 June, BRV’s stake declined further from 21.2% to 18.2%. 
  • This block deal sale at a big discount is likely to raise overhang concerns about further block deal sales by BRV Capital in the coming months/years.

Shift Up IPO – Refiling and Other Updates, Not Ranked at the Top Anymore

By Sumeet Singh

  • Shift Up (462870 KS) plans to raise up to US$320m in its South Korean IPO.
  • Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance, undertaken a peer comparison and talked about valuations in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the refiling and other updates.

Clarifying BRV’s Post-Block Deal Lockup Conditions Involving Ecopro Materials

By Sanghyun Park

  • In Korea, the lockup period for block deals is set by the seller and underwriters, not by law, and can be adjusted if both parties agree.
  • BRV obtained consent from Goldman, UBS, and KB for a second block deal after assessing that many initial buyers had sold their shares.
  • Understanding this lockup structure provides key insights into predicting when the next block deal might occur.

Webtoon Entertainment Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Relatively Small in Operating Scale as a Platform

By Ethan Aw

  • Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its US IPO.
  • Webtoon Entertainment is a global storytelling platform where a community of creators and users discover, create and share new content.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Block Deal Sale of 3.6% Shares of Enchem

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 14 June, it was reported that Woori PE/other investors will be selling 705,384 shares of Enchem in a block deal, representing 3.6% of outstanding shares. 
  • The block deal discount rate ranges from 6.9% to 8.92%, resulting in potential block deal sale price of 270,500 won to 276,500 won.
  • We would not subscribe to this block deal and we are concerned about the valuations of Enchem after a sharp share price appreciation this year.

Enchem Placement- Easily Digestible but a Punt at Best

By Ethan Aw

  • Woori PE, NH PE and KDB Capital seek to raise around KRW195bn (US$141m) through a secondary block deal, selling 0.71m shares (3.64% of TSO) of Enchem (348370 KS).
  • The deal is a small one to digest at only 1.1 days of three-month ADV. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Unitedhealth Group, Cigna Group, CoreCivic , Elevance Health , Globe Life , Humana Inc, Lincoln National, Molina Healthcare, Old Republic Intl and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel Warns That Its Foundry Strategy Is “Highly Risky” & Its Success Is “Highly Uncertain”
  • UnitedHealth Group Incorporated: Initiation of Coverage – A Dive Into The Integrated Strategy Of This Healthcare Industry Leader! – Major Drivers
  • Cigna Corporation: Is Their Investment in VillageMD Yielding The Expected Results? – Major Drivers
  • CXW: Revising Estimates Believe CXW Relationship with ICE Remains Strong
  • Elevance Health Inc.: How Is The Expansion of Value-Based Care Initiatives Panning Out? – Major Drivers
  • Globe Life Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Strategic Review and Exit from Proposed Acquisitions due to Financial Prudence! – Major Drivers
  • Humana Inc.: Enhanced Strategic Management of Benefit Costs and Member Acquisition Tactics! – Major Drivers
  • Lincoln National Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – A Tale Of Strategic Repositioning & Improving Cost Management! – Major Drivers
  • Molina Healthcare Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – A Story Of Enhanced Focus on Managed Medicaid and Medicare Advantage Expansion! – Major Drivers
  • Old Republic International Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Can Its Strategic Technological Investments Give It A Competitive Edge? – Major Drivers


Intel Warns That Its Foundry Strategy Is “Highly Risky” & Its Success Is “Highly Uncertain”

By William Keating

  • Intel’s 2023 10K includes two new risk sections relating to its foundry plans and Smart Capital approach to funding them. 
  • It labels its foundry plan as “Highly Risky” and rates its chances of success as “highly uncertain”
  • They also helpfully warn that they have “limited experience” with the third party foundry business, just FYI

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated: Initiation of Coverage – A Dive Into The Integrated Strategy Of This Healthcare Industry Leader! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • UnitedHealth Group has reported its first quarter financial results for 2024, which reflect the resilience and adaptive capacity of the organization amidst significant challenges, most notably the Change Healthcare cyberattack.
  • In addressing the cyberattack, UnitedHealth Group has showcased robust crisis management capabilities, responding swiftly to ensure continuity in care provision and financial support for affected healthcare providers.
  • The financial impact of the cyberattack has been substantial, with approximately $870 million in total impact to the quarter and an anticipated full-year impact in the range of $1.15 to $1.35 per share.

Cigna Corporation: Is Their Investment in VillageMD Yielding The Expected Results? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Cigna Group has presented its first-quarter results for 2024, demonstrating financial strength and strategic advancements across its diverse business segments.
  • The financial outcomes reveal a sound start to the year, with increased revenue and adjusted earnings per share, alongside an uplift in the full year 2024 earnings guidance.
  • However, these positive aspects are accompanied by areas of setbacks and challenges suggesting that while Cigna is on a promising trajectory, there are complexities that might affect its future performance.

CXW: Revising Estimates Believe CXW Relationship with ICE Remains Strong

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • The contract termination was driven primarily by costs, according to the WSJ.
  • Unlike most CXW ICE contracts, the center has been operated under a costlier model because it was initially opened in 2014 to house families, then was transitioned in 2021 to detention primarily of individual adults.
  • Despite the expected short-term challenge of the contract termination, longer term we expect rising demand from ICE under the traditional detention model.

Elevance Health Inc.: How Is The Expansion of Value-Based Care Initiatives Panning Out? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Elevance Health recently reported its first-quarter results for the 2024 fiscal year, showcasing a blend of strategic accomplishments and agile responses to ongoing industry shifts.
  • The company announced earnings per share (EPS) on a GAAP basis of $9.59 and an adjusted diluted EPS of $10.64, indicating a robust growth of 12.5%.
  • This performance was underpinned by disciplined execution across Elevance Health’s strategic initiatives in a dynamically evolving healthcare landscape.

Globe Life Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Strategic Review and Exit from Proposed Acquisitions due to Financial Prudence! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the first quarter, Globe Life Inc. reported significant financial improvements, backed by robust underlying operational performances across various segments.
  • Net income rose notably to $254 million, or $2.67 per share, up from $224 million, or $2.28 per share, in the same period a year ago.
  • Net operating income also increased by 10% year-over-year to $264 million, or $2.78 per share.

Humana Inc.: Enhanced Strategic Management of Benefit Costs and Member Acquisition Tactics! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Humana has presented a mixed set of results for the first quarter of 2024, coupled with adjusted expectations for the upcoming year.
  • The company has reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance at approximately $16 and increased its membership growth outlook from 100,000 to 150,000 net additions, which speaks to Humana’s operational resilience and strategic expansions.
  • This performance is supported by inline or positive medical cost trends, and visible growth in their primary care business with a significant upswing in new and mature centers.

Lincoln National Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – A Tale Of Strategic Repositioning & Improving Cost Management! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lincoln Financial Group delivered a robust performance in the first quarter of 2024, attributed to strategic repositioning and growth across its various business segments.
  • The company reported strong results in its Annuities, Group Protection, Retirement Plan Services, and Life business areas.
  • Key highlights include a significant earnings quarter for the Annuities division and strong year-over-year earnings growth in Group Protection.

Molina Healthcare Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – A Story Of Enhanced Focus on Managed Medicaid and Medicare Advantage Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Molina Healthcare has reported their first quarter earnings, achieving an adjusted EPS of $5.73 and generating $9.5 billion in premium revenue.
  • The company’s performance was described as being in line with expectations and is backed by efficient operating metrics across all business segments.
  • The consolidated MCR (medical cost ratio) stood at 88.5%, demonstrating strong medical cost management with results across segments fulfilling the company’s forecasts.

Old Republic International Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Can Its Strategic Technological Investments Give It A Competitive Edge? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Old Republic International Corporation disclosed its first-quarter 2024 financial results, showcasing a mixed performance with strengths in General Insurance contrasted by challenges in the Title Insurance segment.
  • The company reported a consolidated pretax operating income of $231.5 million, which marks an increase from $222.9 million in the corresponding period of the previous year.
  • This growth was primarily driven by a robust performance in the General Insurance sector, which offset the subdued results in Title Insurance due to prevailing market conditions.

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Daily Brief China: Plover Bay Technologies, Dickson Concepts Intl, Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Plover Bay 1523 HK Earnings Preview: Strong H1 FY24, Rerating to Continue
  • Dickson Concepts (113 HK): 38% Discount to NCAV, 8.6% Dividend Yield, Steady FY24
  • EQD | Is the HSI Correction Going to Continue? (Yes, For 1-2 Weeks)


Plover Bay 1523 HK Earnings Preview: Strong H1 FY24, Rerating to Continue

By Sameer Taneja

  • We expect strong 30-35% YoY earnings growth in Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) for its earnings to be released in July for H1 FY24. 
  • We expect the company to continue its 80% dividend payout ratio, which will result in a 4% semi-annual yield (8% annualized). 
  • Trading at 12.2x with >50% ROEs and net cash of >30 mn USD, we expect the strong results to catalyze a further multiple rerate.

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): 38% Discount to NCAV, 8.6% Dividend Yield, Steady FY24

By Sameer Taneja

  • Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) reported earnings growth of 39% YoY, led mostly by an increase in interest income on the 9.6 HKD/share of net cash/investments on the balance sheet. 
  • The company’s net current asset value (NCAV) expanded to 8.2 HKD/share (Vs. FY23: 7.6 HKD/share), and with the stock at 5.2 HKD/share, it trades at a 37% discount to NCAV. 
  • The dividend was increased to 45 cents ( from FY23:35 cents/share), placing the stock at an attractive dividend yield of 8.6%.

EQD | Is the HSI Correction Going to Continue? (Yes, For 1-2 Weeks)

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index correction has restarted this week, after a brief 1-week bounce.
  • The index may continue to downtrend for another 1-2 weeks, then a reversal should come and the uptrend should restart.
  • Look at the price support area in the 17500-17000 range, because that is where my model indicates the highest chance of LONG reversal.

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Daily Brief India: S&P BSE SENSEX Index, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • FII’s High Short Positions on Indian Markets : Crisis or Opportunity
  • #1 Forensic Foresight: SEBI Warns ICICI Bank, Suzlon Director Resign, Wardwizard Disguise


FII’s High Short Positions on Indian Markets : Crisis or Opportunity

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • It is important for investors to not get swayed by popular narratives and instead look at the data and historical patterns to make informed decisions. 
  • While a large short position by FIIs may seem concerning, it could actually signal a potential opportunity for positive returns in the Nifty 50 index. 
  • By understanding the reasons behind this contrarian move and the historical trends, investors can navigate bet when FII’s short positions are high.

#1 Forensic Foresight: SEBI Warns ICICI Bank, Suzlon Director Resign, Wardwizard Disguise

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Forensic Forsight will be a bi-monthly report covering Indian companies having corporate governance issues guiding investors on strengthening their ESG investment framework
  • The issue covers SEBI warning against ICICI Bank for manipulation in delisting process of its key subsidiary.
  • The report also covers how a EV company disguises shareholders while an Indian renewable energy company is under scrutiny owing to Independent Director Resignation

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