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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Ra and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: US$1.6bn+ One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: US$1.6bn+ One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations.

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • There have been some changes to the SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs lists since our last insight.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Ra and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: US$1.6bn+ One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: US$1.6bn+ One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations.

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • There have been some changes to the SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs lists since our last insight.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief TMT/Internet: TIS, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Money Forward , Wasion Group Holdings, FIT Hon Teng , Victory Giant Technology -A, DCI Indonesia Tbk PT, Vega Corp, Neos Corp, Hello Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan – Yet Another Big Round of Passive Selling Expected in August
  • Recently Observed Market Flow Movements Related to Korea’s Value-Up Initiatives
  • Money Forward (3994) | Metronomic Growth
  • Wasion (3393): Smart Power Meter
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (15th Jul 2024): Zhongsheng, Jardine Matheson, FIT Hon Teng, Hon Hai
  • CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 11% Turnover; US$3.4bn Round-Trip Trade
  • DCI Indonesia (DCII IJ) – More Than a Concept
  • Vega’s Lowya Expanding Omnichannel to Grow Audience
  • Neos Corp (3627 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update
  • Hello Group Inc (MOMO) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024


Japan – Yet Another Big Round of Passive Selling Expected in August

By Brian Freitas

  • There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.
  • The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
  • Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.

Recently Observed Market Flow Movements Related to Korea’s Value-Up Initiatives

By Sanghyun Park

  • Nine companies disclosed value-up plans, with four official and five pending disclosures. Initially, these announcements boosted stock prices, but long-term correlations were inconclusive. Yet, shareholder returns notably rose in H1.
  • NPS increased stakes in three of the nine recently announced value-up companies. They share traits in value-up trading (large caps & low PBR), potentially guiding our strategy as NPS enters.
  • BlackRock’s Hong Kong branch has recently engaged with six Korean asset management firms for potential entrustment of its Asian fund’s Korean investment portion, focusing on the value-up policy.

Money Forward (3994) | Metronomic Growth

By Mark Chadwick

  • Money Forward released Q2 results post market close on Friday. Revenue growth of +41% YoY beat our estimates by 7%.
  • We highlight continued solid financial metrics supported by growth in SaaS ARR and in particular mid-sized corporate growth.
  • No change to our bullish long-term view on the company. Stock has run up around 11% ahead of earnings but we see further 20%+ upside from here. 

Wasion (3393): Smart Power Meter

By Henry Soediarko

  • Energy is scarce, thus, besides renewable energy, energy efficiency should also be the key focus. 
  • Wasion Group Holdings (3393 HK) customers have grown from domestic grids to both non-grid and grid domestic as well as overseas customers (Latin America). 
  • Despite a 65% YTD return, it is still trading at 11x PER, with a 4% dividend yield, 6x EV/EBITDA, and 1.2x PBR. 

HK CEO & Director Dealings (15th Jul 2024): Zhongsheng, Jardine Matheson, FIT Hon Teng, Hon Hai

By David Blennerhassett


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 11% Turnover; US$3.4bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • With 70% of the review period now complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index at the close on 13 December.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.3% at the rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY12.08bn (US$1.7bn). The Information Technology and HealthCare sectors gain at the expense of Industrials.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI Smallcap 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX) since the start of the year with the outperformance gradually picking up.

DCI Indonesia (DCII IJ) – More Than a Concept

By Angus Mackintosh

  • DCI Indonesia (DCII IJ) is Indonesia’s leading operator of Tier 4 data centres, which require the highest operational standards, with its main business in co-location services.
  • The company has a long track record of growth in both sales and profits, making it more than a concept, with a well-thought-out expansion at its three existing data centres.
  • DCI Indonesia is hard to justify on current valuations but has a strong track record on execution with a high pedigree management team and customer base, with backing from Salim.

Vega’s Lowya Expanding Omnichannel to Grow Audience

By Michael Causton

  • Lowya began as an online furniture retailer and is still one of the largest in e-commerce, but limited brand awareness has held it back and sales fell last year. 
  • Vega Corporation, Lowya’s parent, is now expanding physical stores and offering omnichannel solutions to fix the problem.
  • This makes sense in a market where stores remain preeminent and are likely to remain so.

Neos Corp (3627 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY02/25, TECMIRA reported revenue of JPY2.8bn (+53.7% YoY), operating loss of JPY42mn, and net loss of JPY31mn.
  • Revenue growth was driven by strong sales of new Nintendo Switch software and first-time consolidation of Wellmira.
  • AI & Cloud segment saw significant revenue increase due to AI chatbot services, while IoT & Devices segment grew 2.6x YoY.

Hello Group Inc (MOMO) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Investment opportunity in MOMO, Chinese ADR trading at 70% of net cash and 5x EPS/FCF
  • Core business may be in decline, but management has shown good cost discipline and capital allocation
  • Potential for MOMO to return $200m per year to shareholders, offering potential 50% return on investment as a cigar butt investment similar to HUYA success.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Legend Biotech Corp, China Shineway Pharmaceutical, Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co, Sagility India, Avita Medical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Update Provides Fodder for Bulls and Bears
  • Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Takeover Interest – Possible but Tough to Pull Off
  • China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) – Negative Growth in 24H1 Seems Inevitable
  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Mixed Performance in Q1FY25; No Change in FY25 Guidance
  • Sagility India Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Avita Medical Inc (RCEL) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Update Provides Fodder for Bulls and Bears

By Arun George

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update provides ammunition to both the bulls and bears. Since falling on no news on 26 June, the spread has widened to 31.8%. 
  • The bull view is that while the timelines are delayed, the privatisation remains on track as the update shows ongoing progress in satisfying the pre-condition. 
  • The bear view is that progress remains glacial, as the consortium wants to withdraw from a binding offer by failing to satisfy the pre-condition before the long stop date.

Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Takeover Interest – Possible but Tough to Pull Off

By Arun George

  • Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US) shares increased 12% on Friday as a Street Insider report claimed it received takeover interest and hired Centerview Partners to help review the offer.
  • Genscript Biotech (1548 HK), the largest shareholder, shares rose 25%. Genscript responsded that it is not aware of any reasons for these share price movements and any inside information.
  • The chances for an offer are low as the offeror would face several hurdles. Nevertheless, without an offer, the upcoming CARVYKTI commercial production in 2H24 will support the share price.   

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) – Negative Growth in 24H1 Seems Inevitable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Three business segments of Shineway showed negative YoY growth in 24Q1. 24Q2 performance could remain sluggish. We’re not optimistic about the 24H1 results due to the high base in 23H1.
  • It is expected that Shineway’s growth in 24H2 would pick up. If revenue growth of Shineway in 2024 full-year could be double-digit (e.g. 10-15% YoY), it is already good.
  • Shineway is undervalued. It has sufficient cash (cash balance of RMB5.9 billion by 2023) and is willing to distribute dividends (usually twice a year). Shineway is suitable for long-term holding.

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Mixed Performance in Q1FY25; No Change in FY25 Guidance

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) has reported double-digit growth in revenue and net profit in Q1FY25. However, operating profit decreased 5% YoY due to higher expenses.  
  • Topline growth was mainly driven by Salonpas, which was named the world’s no. 1 OTC topical analgesic patch band for the eighth consecutive year.  
  • The company reiterated FY25 guidance of 7% revenue growth and low double-digit operating and net profit growth, as an increase in operating profit is expected for the full-year as planned.

Sagility India Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Sagility India (2058883D IN) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI Securities, IIFL Securities, Jefferies and JP Morgan. 
  • Sagility India is a pure-play healthcare focused solutions and services provider to Payers (U.S. health insurance companies), and Providers (primarily hospitals, physicians, and diagnostic and medical devices companies). 
  • It supports the core business operations of both Payer and Provider clients. 

Avita Medical Inc (RCEL) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • AVITA Medical has a 75% market share in the burns market, surpassing competitors
  • The company’s recent financial performance has been strong, with an 84% increase in revenue in 2020
  • AVITA Medical has significant potential for growth and value creation in the future, given its position in the burns industry and growing market opportunity

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Financials: NatWest Group , Bitcoin, Onex Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • NatWest (NWG): Passive Push from UK Government
  • Crypto Crisp: No Fear, Prices Soar
  • Onex Corporation (ONEX) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024


NatWest (NWG): Passive Push from UK Government

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • The UK government has more than halved its stake in NatWest Group (NWG LN) over the last two years reflecting an improving financial health for the lender.
  • The UK government is a strategic shareholder and the selling is forecasted to cause a passive fund demand in the next two months across four indices.
  • At close of 20 September 2024, the aggregate passive fund demand for NatWest Group (NWG LN) is currently estimated at 22.8m shares, $95.7m and 0.73 days of volume.

Crypto Crisp: No Fear, Prices Soar

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The crypto market has recently diverged not only from the rapidly improving liquidity conditions in the broader economy but also from various positive crypto-specific factors such as declining exchange balances, regulatory clarity, reduced Bitcoin miners’ reserves, the historically positive post-Halving period, and the imminent launch of Ethereum spot ETFs.
  • This decoupling has been driven by the German government selling nearly 50,000 bitcoins over the past few weeks, most of which were sold last week, along with the start of repayments to Mt. Gox creditors.
  • The substantial rebound in crypto assets this weekend, as the German Bitcoin selling ended on Friday, highlights that the tumbling prices in recent weeks were merely due to the German government, Mt. Gox, and, not least, the unjustified fear of substantial selling pressure, as we argued in last week’s Crypto Crisp titled ‘Buy the Dip’.

Onex Corporation (ONEX) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Onex Corporation has experienced a 50% increase in stock price
  • Despite slow fundraising, Onex remains a strong investment due to pruning and optimization efforts
  • Recent leadership change and shareholder approval for phasing out founder’s control increase potential for growth

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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Daily Brief Consumer: ASICS Corp, Budweiser Brewing APAC , Honda Motor, DiDi Global, Mandarin Oriental International, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Burberry, JAKKS Pacific , Bassett Furniture Inds, Yifeng Pharmacy Chain and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asics (7936 JP): Huge Forecast Revision to Offset Limited Passive Buying
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stocks Update (July 15)
  • Honda Motor Placement – Past Large Deals Analysis – Could Do with a Bit More Correction
  • Remember DiDi Global? We Check in on China’s Dominant Rideshare Company and Review Recent Results
  • APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline
  • Determine Whether Shareholder Return Is a Temporary Measure or a Shift to Value-Creating Management
  • BRBY: New CEO & Yet More Bad News for the Troubled Retailer
  • JAKK: Initiating Coverage of JAKKS with Buy, $24 PT; Building a Better Model
  • Bassett Furniture Industries, Inc. – 2QFY24 Results Were Ugly
  • Yifeng Pharmacy (603939 CH) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024


Asics (7936 JP): Huge Forecast Revision to Offset Limited Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • 15 shareholders are looking to sell between 73.9-85m shares (US$1.2bn-US$1.38bn) of ASICS Corp (7936 JP) in a secondary offering that will likely be priced on 23 July.
  • ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has also announced a huge upward revision to its sales and profit forecasts with EPS expected to increase 61% from earlier estimates.
  • Passive buying will be extremely limited in the short-term with the downward pressure offset to a large extent by the sales and earnings revisions.

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stocks Update (July 15)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong market still trades at a substantial discount to Analyst year end price targets.
  • Budweiser APAC is dependent on China’s consumer to lift sales while Anta Sports is targeting increased sales from the upcoming Paris Olympics.
  • Sunny Optical is seeing substantial growth from it EV segment and Haitian continues to grow its international sales.  Shineway RX is a rare value play in the pharmaceutical sector.

Honda Motor Placement – Past Large Deals Analysis – Could Do with a Bit More Correction

By Sumeet Singh

  • A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP).
  • The possibility of such a selldown was flagged by Reuters prior to the deal launch.
  • In our earlier note, we spoke about the deal dynamics. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.

Remember DiDi Global? We Check in on China’s Dominant Rideshare Company and Review Recent Results

By Daniel Hellberg

  • First, we offer a recent history of Didi going back to its June 2021 IPO 
  • Next, we review the company’s annual results from 2020-23 plus Q124
  • Finally, we try to answer the question, “Does Didi need to raise cash soon?”

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri


Determine Whether Shareholder Return Is a Temporary Measure or a Shift to Value-Creating Management

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The dissolution of cross-shareholdings and changing environment in which foreign ownership has risen to 30% have changed the view of activist investors. TSE is one such example of big change.
  • It’s convenient that activist investors can use “TSE requested” language that is both easily understood and undeniable by the company when communicating with the portfolio company to improve its issues.
  • We must determine whether this is a temporary return to shareholders until the activist investors are removed from the shareholder list, or a shift to value-creating management.

BRBY: New CEO & Yet More Bad News for the Troubled Retailer

By Investment Talk

  • It was hard to imagine a worse first quarter for Burberry.
  • At a time when investors were desperate for some positive news following a torrentially bad fiscal 2024, Burberry’s Q1 trading update emphasised a “luxury market that is proving more challenging than expected” with the weakness highlighted coming into FY25 having “deepened” .
  • Retail revenue for the quarter of £458 million came in 22% below the prior year.

JAKK: Initiating Coverage of JAKKS with Buy, $24 PT; Building a Better Model

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are initiating coverage of JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (“JAKKS” or the company), a leading designer, producer, marketer, seller and distributor of multi-brand licensed toys and related products, with a Buy rating and a $24 price target, or 7.5X our 2025 EPS projection of $3.20.
  • We believe, after a rough start to 2024, driven by weak content-led movie driven results, JAKKS is nearing a stabilization of the business and, with new licensing relationships (The Simpsons and Authentic Brands) and content-led movies (Moana 2, Sonic the Hedgehog 3) coming to the fore, is positioned for upside.
  • Further, as of 1Q24, JAKKS is debt free for the first time in recent history, with cash per share of over $3.40 and tangible book value of over $14.75 per share.

Bassett Furniture Industries, Inc. – 2QFY24 Results Were Ugly

By Water Tower Research

  • Herein, we analyze and discuss Bassett’s 2QFY24 earnings report.
  • Management reported its results for the interim period that ended on June 1, 2024, on Wednesday after market close.
  • It also conducted its “first-ever” management-sponsored and conducted earnings conference call on Thursday before market open, taking and answering analyst questions live.

Yifeng Pharmacy (603939 CH) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Yifeng is a leading pharmacy chain in China with 13,000 stores nationwide, primarily in East and Southcentral regions
  • Revenue is mostly derived from prescription and over-the-counter drugs, with Traditional Chinese Medicine and non-medicine products also contributing
  • Despite already being a top pharmacy chain in China, Yifeng still has room to grow and capture more market share in the industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Most Read: ASICS Corp, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, MMG, Eoptolink Technology , TIS, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Legend Biotech Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress
  • HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking
  • Asics (7936 JP): Huge Forecast Revision to Offset Limited Passive Buying
  • ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Update Provides Fodder for Bulls and Bears
  • MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown
  • Japan – Yet Another Big Round of Passive Selling Expected in August
  • Recently Observed Market Flow Movements Related to Korea’s Value-Up Initiatives
  • Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Takeover Interest – Possible but Tough to Pull Off


China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The slow progress of privatization is related to recent high-level changes in CNPGC. Decisions on SOE deals with “strategic purpose” require careful considerations, not based on “one leader’s personal preferences”.
  • Based on public information, we cannot find convincing reason to prove that CNPGC has changed its mind.There’re rumors that China TCM’s privatization is still considered important project on the agenda.
  • China TCM’s has strong fundamentals to support valuation. If there is no announcement, the privatization process is expected to proceed as usual, and we continue to wait for the voting.  

HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, ASICS Corp (7936 JP) announced a very large secondary offering. It points out that as a global brand, it needs global-standard corporate governance. 
  • As such, it says they’ve been discussing sales with crossholders. But we knew the cross-holders were going to sell. This offering is 85mm shares, ¥210bn at last. That’s big. 
  • The stock has doubled year-to-date. Today they raised FY guidance BIGLY (+60% OP and NP). Now a huge offering. This seems like a “feed the ducks when they’re quacking” situation.

Asics (7936 JP): Huge Forecast Revision to Offset Limited Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • 15 shareholders are looking to sell between 73.9-85m shares (US$1.2bn-US$1.38bn) of ASICS Corp (7936 JP) in a secondary offering that will likely be priced on 23 July.
  • ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has also announced a huge upward revision to its sales and profit forecasts with EPS expected to increase 61% from earlier estimates.
  • Passive buying will be extremely limited in the short-term with the downward pressure offset to a large extent by the sales and earnings revisions.

ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

By Sumeet Singh

  • A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).
  • For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Update Provides Fodder for Bulls and Bears

By Arun George

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update provides ammunition to both the bulls and bears. Since falling on no news on 26 June, the spread has widened to 31.8%. 
  • The bull view is that while the timelines are delayed, the privatisation remains on track as the update shows ongoing progress in satisfying the pre-condition. 
  • The bear view is that progress remains glacial, as the consortium wants to withdraw from a binding offer by failing to satisfy the pre-condition before the long stop date.

MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion

By Travis Lundy

  • Friday post-close, MMG (1208 HK) released the results of its Rights Offering. 3.4654bn Rights Shares at HK$2.62 saw 98.18% take-up. New Rights Shares officially start trading on 16 July.
  • The other 1.82% (63.1mm Rights Shares) saw 6.383bn excess Rights Shares applications. EAFs were allocated evenly, so applicants got 0.99% of what they bid for, but hey, free money?
  • The new Rights Shares are expected to commence trading on 16 July. Even better, there was good fundamental news out late Sunday which should add to the general wellbeing.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.

Japan – Yet Another Big Round of Passive Selling Expected in August

By Brian Freitas

  • There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.
  • The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
  • Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.

Recently Observed Market Flow Movements Related to Korea’s Value-Up Initiatives

By Sanghyun Park

  • Nine companies disclosed value-up plans, with four official and five pending disclosures. Initially, these announcements boosted stock prices, but long-term correlations were inconclusive. Yet, shareholder returns notably rose in H1.
  • NPS increased stakes in three of the nine recently announced value-up companies. They share traits in value-up trading (large caps & low PBR), potentially guiding our strategy as NPS enters.
  • BlackRock’s Hong Kong branch has recently engaged with six Korean asset management firms for potential entrustment of its Asian fund’s Korean investment portion, focusing on the value-up policy.

Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Takeover Interest – Possible but Tough to Pull Off

By Arun George

  • Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US) shares increased 12% on Friday as a Street Insider report claimed it received takeover interest and hired Centerview Partners to help review the offer.
  • Genscript Biotech (1548 HK), the largest shareholder, shares rose 25%. Genscript responsded that it is not aware of any reasons for these share price movements and any inside information.
  • The chances for an offer are low as the offeror would face several hurdles. Nevertheless, without an offer, the upcoming CARVYKTI commercial production in 2H24 will support the share price.   

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: Petrochina and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Petrochina, Bosideng, Anta Sports
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 12th): Samsung Electronics
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 12th):Wuapptec, China Telecom, Remegen, Hua Hong Semi, Flat Glass
  • Northbound Flows (Jul 12th): Moutai, Yangtze Power, Ping An Insurance, Cosco Shipping, CNNP
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 12th): Umc, Alchip Tech, Quanta Computer, Chung-Hsin, TSMC
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 12th): ICBC
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 12th): Acer, Hon Hai, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Silicon Integrat


HK Short Interest Weekly: Petrochina, Bosideng, Anta Sports

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 5th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Petrochina (857 HK), Bosideng (3998 HK), Anta Sports (2020 HK).

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 12th): Samsung Electronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 12th which has an aggregated holding worth USD572.7bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,198mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We estimate the inflows decreased by 1.0% WoW and highlight foreign changes in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS).

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 12th):Wuapptec, China Telecom, Remegen, Hua Hong Semi, Flat Glass

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 105.7% as of Jul 12th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -2.5ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, energy, consumer discretionary and offset by real estate, utilities, information technology.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Wuapptec, China Telecom, Remegen, Hua Hong Semi, Flat Glass .

Northbound Flows (Jul 12th): Moutai, Yangtze Power, Ping An Insurance, Cosco Shipping, CNNP

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 12th.
  • We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$2,168.8 million, led by financials, information technology, utilities sectors, and offset by health care, communication services, energy.
  • We highlight flows for Moutai, Yangtze Power, Ping An Insurance, Cosco Shipping, CNNP.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 12th): Umc, Alchip Tech, Quanta Computer, Chung-Hsin, TSMC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 12th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,035.6bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,431mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Umc, Alchip Tech, Quanta Computer, Chung-Hsin, Cathay Financial, TSMC, Hon Hai, Ctbc Financial, ASE.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 12th): ICBC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 12th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We estimate the inflows to be USD 580m and highlight flows for ICBC (1398 HK).

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 12th): Acer, Hon Hai, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Silicon Integrat

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 12th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Acer, Hon Hai, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Silicon Integrat, Yang Ming Marine.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Football Is Not Coming Home and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Football Is Not Coming Home
  • GEMWeekly (12 Jul 2024): Driverless Robotaxis in Shanghai; China Macro; Baidu, Samsung Electronics


Ohayo Japan | Football Is Not Coming Home

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Dow closed above 40,000 for only the second time, finishing just over two points shy of a record high
  • Mitsui & Co will invest 500 billion yen to raise its domestic data center assets to 1 trillion yen by 2030
  • SoftBank acquired Bristol-based AI firm Graphcore Ltd, although the financial terms were undisclosed. Graphcore specializes in AI chips to rival Nvidia

GEMWeekly (12 Jul 2024): Driverless Robotaxis in Shanghai; China Macro; Baidu, Samsung Electronics

By Wium Malan, CFA


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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust


Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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