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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Samsung and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space…
  • Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 21/06/2024


Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space…

By William Keating

  • Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely trigger mainstream memory shortages by EOY 2024 
  • Both Nanya and Winbond are well positioned to benefit from any industry-wide shortages
  • If Samsung can sort out its HBM woes, it will be line for a re-rating

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

By Victor Galliano

  • Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion
  • We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group
  • We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 21/06/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C: target price of £0.65 per share: Flow rate of high impact horizontal well above expectations – The first CN Horizontal well (CNB HZ-1) from the Carrizales Norte B pad has been on production since 14 June at a rate of 3,150 bbl/d (~1.6 mbbl/d net) with less than 1% water cut while still recovering load fluid.
  • The flow rate is currently constrained with the ESP operating on the minimum setting.
  • The flow rate is above expectations.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Edelweiss: Co-Lending Led Credit Business Is Now Gaining Momentum and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Edelweiss: Co-Lending Led Credit Business Is Now Gaining Momentum
  • MMG Rights Issue – Prospectus Issued
  • MMA Offshore Ltd – Increased Scheme Offer of $2.70/Share; Trading Update
  • Burford Capital Ltd (BUR) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024
  • IQVIA Deep Dive
  • Volkswagen Ag (VWAPY) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024
  • Games Workshop Group – FY24 profit estimates beaten
  • Migalo Holdings (5535 JP) – Full-Year FY2024/3 Earnings Review
  • Rent.com.au Ltd – Additional capital raised, RentPay customers up 64%
  • Baltic Classifieds Group (BCG LN) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024


Edelweiss: Co-Lending Led Credit Business Is Now Gaining Momentum

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Edelweiss reported a strong Q4FY24 led by robust performance across businesses. The asset management business continues to be the lead performer. Insurance businesses are also growing at an industry-leading pace.
  • Most notably, the credit business seems to be gaining momentum now, led by co-lending. MSME co-lending disbursements tripled while housing finance (HFC) co-lending disbursements doubled in FY24. 
  • To unlock value and reduce debt at the corporate level, Edelweiss is planning a minority stake sale in the Alternative Asset Management business.

MMG Rights Issue – Prospectus Issued

By Rikki Malik

  • The stock price has corrected to the anticipated level and rebounded
  • Dates announced for acceptance and payment for the rights issue
  • There may be more weakness once the rights shares start  trading

MMA Offshore Ltd – Increased Scheme Offer of $2.70/Share; Trading Update

By MA Moelis Australia

  • Cyan MMA Holdings Pty Ltd (Cyan) has increased its scheme consideration to $2.70 cash per share, up from $2.60 per share and has designated the offer as best and final.
  • A supplementary Scheme Booklet is expected to be released 21 June; scheme voting is for 1 July.
  • MMA Offshore Ltd (MRM) recently released a 2H24 trading update, noting earnings visibility and performance across the current half has continued to improve.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Burford Capital Ltd (BUR) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Burford Capital is a leading provider of litigation finance with a market capitalization of $2.5bn and strong revenue and profit figures
  • The company, led by innovative founders, has received positive assessments from customers, ex-employees, law firms, and peers
  • Burford has a proven track record of competitive advantage in revenue, market share, innovation, customer service, and underwriting skill, with potential for improved returns on capital and vast growth opportunities.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


IQVIA Deep Dive

By MBI Deep Dives

  • Back in 2016, IMS Health and Quintiles went through a merger of equals to form “QuintilesIMS” which was later renamed to be “IQVIA” in 2017.
  • “I” and “Q” stand for IMS Health and Quintiles respectively and “VIA” means “by way of”.
  • Since IMS and Quintiles both used to be separate public companies, let me discuss these two businesses separately at first before getting into the details of their post-merger status.

Volkswagen Ag (VWAPY) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Volkswagen’s US ADRs (VWAPY) have underperformed in the past 5 years, despite a 3% increase with dividends
  • Company’s growth guidance and margins are weaker compared to peers, leading to undervaluation of stock
  • Trading at low multiples of forward earnings and free cash flow, recent free cash flow guidance for 2024 was unimpressive; preferred shares receive extra dividends but no voting rights

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Games Workshop Group – FY24 profit estimates beaten

By Edison Investment Research

Games Workshop Group’s FY24 trading update provided a nice surprise on the revenue side, broadly equally split between core and licensing, and an even nicer surprise for PBT, suggesting an improvement in gross margin. We have upgraded our FY24 estimates to be consistent with the indicated figures and marginally increase our estimates for FY25, which reverts to a 52-week period accounting period.


Migalo Holdings (5535 JP) – Full-Year FY2024/3 Earnings Review

By Sessa Investment Research

  • On May 9, 2024, Migalo Holdings Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced its full- year FY2024/3 earnings results.
  • Sales rose 14.5% YoY to ¥42,672 mn, and operating profit fell 14.4% YoY to ¥2,500 mn, largely in line with the Company’s full-year forecast calling for sales to rise 12.7% YoY to ¥42,000 mn and operating profit to drop 14.4% YoY to ¥2,500 mn.
  • The Company will pay a year-end dividend of ¥45 per share, including a commemorative dividend of ¥5 per share to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the founding of its predecessor, Property Agent, Inc.

Rent.com.au Ltd – Additional capital raised, RentPay customers up 64%

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published an update report on purpose-led proptech Rent.com.au (ASX:RNT) following its fully-underwritten entitlement offer to raise $2.5m at $0.02/share, with one quoted option for every two shares issued.
  • Separately and on June 3, RNT provided a trading update in which it announced that RentPay’s customers at the end of May were up 64% to 9,271.
  • We have incorporated the capital raise in our forecasts, but having already modelled an additional $2.5m raise in H2 FY25, the impact to our forecasts is only due at the EPS line.

Baltic Classifieds Group (BCG LN) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • BCG is the leading online classified group in the Baltics with 14 portals across three countries
  • Management team focused on improving monetization for high revenue growth
  • Expected significant value per share growth with exposure to high-growth Baltic markets and plans to increase take-rates, presenting an intriguing opportunity for investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #33 – Dazzling Positivity on the Horizon and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #33 – Dazzling Positivity on the Horizon


Crypto Moves #33 – Dazzling Positivity on the Horizon

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Today’s edition of Crypto Moves builds on this week’s Crypto Crisp, where we advocated a bullish outlook on the crypto market.
  • I have examined all of our charts to find every reason to maintain a long position in the current crypto market. Let us dive in.
  • From this week onwards, we anticipate a significant increase in liquidity over the next few months. This liquidity forecast model has been highly accurate in recent months.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just
  • CrowdStrike Joins S&P 500
  • EQD | The KOSPI 200 Is Ready to Pullback (Again)


CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just

By David Blennerhassett

  • At the AGM yesterday, China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)‘s director Elizabeth Kan was re-appointed, but by a wafer-thin margin: 29.97% of shares out FOR, and 29.44% AGAINST.
  • Stripping out Victor Chu’s stake (~2%?) and China Merchant’s (27.6%), or collectively ~29.6% of shares out, it’s fair to say the remainder of the shareholder register wants her out. 
  • CMCDI is currently trading at a 55% discount to the latest NAV (as at 31st May 2024) of HK$30.42/share.  Argyle continues to add to its position. 

CrowdStrike Joins S&P 500

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On June 24, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) will officially join the S&P 500, which follows strong financial results and guidance. Investors anticipated this inclusion, driven by improved profitability and operational efficiency.
  • The volume traded has so far been on average 2x the 3-month daily average prior to the news. The enduring effect will be on liquidity (hedging basket for index exposure).
  • CrowdStrike’s inclusion in the S&P 500 index increases the representation of pure cybersecurity stocks. Median IBES consensus PT is $400 (7.5% upside).

EQD | The KOSPI 200 Is Ready to Pullback (Again)

By Nico Rosti

  • After 3 weeks up in a row the KOSPI 200 is ripe for a pullback.
  • The reversal is probably going to begin this coming week.
  • If the index goes higher, look at 391 resistance targets to initiate SHORT trades or to cover your LONGs.

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Daily Brief Macro: Liquidity Watch: The $ liquidity outlook remains solid for Q3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Liquidity Watch: The $ liquidity outlook remains solid for Q3
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Jun 2024
  • [ETP 25/2024] Energy Majors Bounce Back; Their Expansion Spree Continues
  • UK: Retail Seasonally Recovers in Dry May
  • CX Daily: Rough Market Doomed Syngenta Listing Plans
  • HEW: Bias Determines Data Dependence


Liquidity Watch: The $ liquidity outlook remains solid for Q3

By Andreas Steno

  • The liquidity outlook always makes for interesting discussions and after a few minor hiccups in liquidity proxies both in the USD space and the GBP space, we are getting increasingly cautious central bank behavior to see in the liquidity space.
  • We therefore see generally benign liquidity conditions ahead for H2-2024 in sharp contrast to predictions from the nay-sayers!Let’s have a look at the details.
  • Liquidity conditions have generally improved since the drawdown during tax season in April/May and we are trending higher now.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Jun 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • China’s Economic Performance: Despite negative media reports, China shows strong year-on-year growth in industrial production and retail sales, outperforming other major economies.
  • Misreported Inflation: China meets the 2% inflation target better than most, with misconceptions about deflation being clarified in recent reports.

  • Japan’s Economic Struggles: Japan’s export growth appears positive in yen but declines in USD terms, reflecting weak domestic demand.


[ETP 25/2024] Energy Majors Bounce Back; Their Expansion Spree Continues

By Suhas Reddy

  • The gap between OPEC and IEA’s oil demand forecasts widened: OPEC kept its 2024 forecast at 2.25m bpd, while IEA lowered its forecast to 960k bpd from 1.1m bpd.
  • Europe’s attempt to cut Russian LNG imports grows stronger, as the French Senate Committee recommends cutting Russian dependence.
  • Since 17/June, Energy majors began recovering. Berkshire increased its holdings in Occidental, while Shell expanded its LNG market access by acquiring Pavilion Energy.

UK: Retail Seasonally Recovers in Dry May

By Phil Rush

  • UK retail sales more than fully recovered from April’s crash in May, although neither move looks like a fundamental signal. The early Easter explains half the volatility.
  • A return to a seasonably average number of rainy days and warmth explains the other half of May’s resurgence and possibly most of the substantial surprise to the consensus.
  • Consumer weakness seems asymmetrically relevant to the dovishly biased MPC. The rebound will not prevent it from announcing a premature rate cut in August.

CX Daily: Rough Market Doomed Syngenta Listing Plans

By Caixin Global

  • Syngenta / In Depth: Rough market doomed Syngenta listing plans
  • Boeing / Boeing’s setbacks open the skies for China’s C919 to take off

  • Russia-North Korea / Russia and North Korea have ‘normal needs’ to develop their relationship, China’s Vice Foreign Minister says


HEW: Bias Determines Data Dependence

By Phil Rush

  • Services inflation exceeded expectations in the EA and the UK, leading to the BoE’s first rate cut from June to August. Retail sales also saw a resurgence.
  • Monetary policy decisions are due next week for Sweden, the Philippines, Mexico, and Colombia.
  • Data highlights for the upcoming period include inflation in the US, France, Italy, and Spain, along with the Euro area’s ESI.

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Most Read: LG Energy Solution, Exedy Corp, Guzman Y Gomez, Ryohin Keikaku, Barito Renewables Energy, SenseTime Group , Giant Biogene, Hengdeli Holdings, China Merchants China Direct Investments, Allied Blenders & Distillers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Mandatory Block Deal Pre-Announcement Requirement in Korea Starting 24 July: Impact on Block Deals
  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] – Murakami Group Goes Activisting on Exedy (7278) – Room To Run
  • Guzman Y Gomez IPO: Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline
  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse, But #2-Ranked ADD Is Close
  • Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Back to Normal Trading & Index Implications
  • Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic
  • Giant Biogene (2367.HK) Placement – A Turning Point in Performance Growth Has Emerged
  • Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK)’s Pitiful Partial Offer
  • CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just
  • Allied Blenders and Distillers – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation


Mandatory Block Deal Pre-Announcement Requirement in Korea Starting 24 July: Impact on Block Deals

By Douglas Kim

  • Starting 24 July, there will be a mandatory pre-announcement requirement for block deal sales in Korea. 
  • In other words, the major shareholders of the Korean companies need to report publicly prior to their actual sales of their stakes in these companies through block deal sales.
  • The potential block deal sales candidates could continue to underperform on average the companies that are selling these stocks in potential block deal sales in the next several weeks. 

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] – Murakami Group Goes Activisting on Exedy (7278) – Room To Run

By Travis Lundy

  • Late May, Aisin (7259 JP) announced a sell-down of its 34% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP) – a big non-dilutive offering, pricing 11% below undisturbed. Exedy announced a buyback.
  • Announced on the 27th of May, shares fell sharply the next day, it priced on the 3rd, and offering shares traded on the 10th. Then the price started climbing back.
  • My first and second pieces argued that buyback accretion, index impact, and change in register shape all meant it was a buy. Activist Murakami agreed, now he has 6.5%. 

Guzman Y Gomez IPO: Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU) has raised A$335.1m in a primary + secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.23bn. The stock starts trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) today.
  • Just over 54% of the shares are escrowed which means there is a lot of stock that will be available for sale on listing day.
  • Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU) could be added to the S&P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse, But #2-Ranked ADD Is Close

By Travis Lundy

  • The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is six weeks away. One can no extrapolate results quite accurately. It still gives us one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
  • Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). More active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later), and only 1% to go to avoid capping.
  • There should be one DELETE, one ADD. There is a low-probability Dark Horse ADD but I expect Kokusai Electric (6525) to be added in March 2025. 

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Back to Normal Trading & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas


Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic

By Sumeet Singh

  • SenseTime Group (20 HK)  aims to raise up to US$263m via selling around 4.5% stake.
  • Sensetime hasn’t had the best of times since listing, however, the shares have rebounded recently on generative AI buzz around the stock.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Giant Biogene (2367.HK) Placement – A Turning Point in Performance Growth Has Emerged

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Despite high growth in 2023, the accelerated growth of Giant Biogene has entered a turning point, and its performance has begun to slow down. Long-term growth momentum is highly uncertain. 
  • Giant Biogene plans to prioritize the market entry of Class III medical device products.Due to increasing competition/challenges in marketing/promotion, it takes time to verify if the second growth curve works. 
  • Reasonable valuation for Giant Biogene is P/E of 20-30x.If based on RMB1.8 billion 2024, market value is RMB36-54 billion. Short-term catalyst is the Online 618 Shopping Festival and 24H1 report.  

Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK)’s Pitiful Partial Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After watch accessory play Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK) was suspended on the 17th June pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I didn’t hold out high hopes of a knock-out Offer.
  • And on cue, CEO Tony Cheung (16%), son of founder Zhang Yuping (holding 17%), has made a Partial Offer (for 15% of shares outstanding) at HK$0.16/share, towards gaining majority control.
  • That’s a 18.5% premium to last close … and a 80% discount to NAV, and a 47% discount to Hengdeli’s net cash as at 31 December 2023.

CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just

By David Blennerhassett

  • At the AGM yesterday, China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)‘s director Elizabeth Kan was re-appointed, but by a wafer-thin margin: 29.97% of shares out FOR, and 29.44% AGAINST.
  • Stripping out Victor Chu’s stake (~2%?) and China Merchant’s (27.6%), or collectively ~29.6% of shares out, it’s fair to say the remainder of the shareholder register wants her out. 
  • CMCDI is currently trading at a 55% discount to the latest NAV (as at 31st May 2024) of HK$30.42/share.  Argyle continues to add to its position. 

Allied Blenders and Distillers – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN) is looking to raise about US$180m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • ABD is the largest Indian-owned Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) company and the third largest IMFL company in India, in terms of annual sales volumes between FY14 and FY22.
  • In our previous notes, we talked about various aspects of the company. In this note, we talk about its RHP updates and our thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief ECM: Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic
  • Muthoot Microfin Lockup Expiry – Pre-IPO Investors Well in the Money Despite the Stock’s Performance
  • Hyundai Motor India: Can It Thrive Amidst a Rapidly Evolving Mobility Landscape?
  • Tamboran Resources US Offering – Strong Recent Momentum but CDIs Have Been Volatile Since Listing


Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic

By Sumeet Singh

  • SenseTime Group (20 HK)  aims to raise up to US$263m via selling around 4.5% stake.
  • Sensetime hasn’t had the best of times since listing, however, the shares have rebounded recently on generative AI buzz around the stock.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Muthoot Microfin Lockup Expiry – Pre-IPO Investors Well in the Money Despite the Stock’s Performance

By Ethan Aw

  • Muthoot Microfin (MUTHOOTM IN) raised around US$115m in its Indian IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of its IPO range at INR291/share.
  • Muthoot Microfin is a microfinance institution providing micro-loans to women customers with a focus on the rural regions of India.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Hyundai Motor India: Can It Thrive Amidst a Rapidly Evolving Mobility Landscape?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • India’s passenger vehicle industry is shifting towards alternative fuels and facing intense competition, amidst changing customer preferences.
  • Despite a growing vehicle market, Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) faces a tough battle to defend its market share given changing industry dynamics.
  • With more competitors in the fray, including its parent group company Kia and EV leader BYD, Hyundai Motor India is in for a challenging ride.

Tamboran Resources US Offering – Strong Recent Momentum but CDIs Have Been Volatile Since Listing

By Clarence Chu

  • Tamboran Resources (TBN AU) is looking to raise US$175m from listing its shares in the US.
  • Tamboran Resources is an early stage, independent natural gas exploration and production company.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and the listing impact.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Market Reversal? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Market Reversal?
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May June 14-20, 2024
  • #15 India Insight: SBI Fund Raise, 15.4 GW Coal Power, Trade with Europe
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:700 HK/BILI US/TCOM US/3690 HK


Ohayo Japan | Market Reversal?

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 pulled back 0.25% on Thursday, ending at 5,473.17 after briefly surpassing the 5,500 mark for the first time
  • Despite significant currency interventions by Japan, the yen continues to weaken against non-U.S. currencies, hitting historic lows against the Swiss franc & British pound
  • Chugoku Electric Power Co. joined the “Floating Offshore Wind Technology Research Association” to advance large-scale floating offshore wind farms

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK

By Eric Wen

  • BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate decreased month-on-month for two consecutive periods.(+)
  • ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP: Congressmen put forward bill to block purchase of certain China made semiconductor equipment by US subsidy recipients (-/+/+/+)
  • LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK: New energy vehicles LI continues to lead in the 24th week of 2024 (///////)

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May June 14-20, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

#15 India Insight: SBI Fund Raise, 15.4 GW Coal Power, Trade with Europe

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India will add 15.4 GW of coal power by March 2025
  • New deep-water port to boost trade with Europe, completed by 2029
  • Funds to strengthen capital base and support growth, raised in FY25

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:700 HK/BILI US/TCOM US/3690 HK

By Ying Pan

  • 700 HK: <DnF Mobile> Pulls Game from Certain Chinese Android App Stores Over Revenue Share Dispute(/)
  • BILI US: Bilibili’s <Three Kingdoms: MDTX> continues strong performance five days after launch(+)
  • TCOM US/3690 HK: Chengdu Issues RMB 30mn in Tourism Consumption Vouchers to Promote Tourism Spending.(+/+)

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure


Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already
  • Shin-Etsu Chem TOB for Rest of Mimasu Semi (8155) – Far Too Cheap, But No Squeaky Wheel No Grease
  • Tatsuta Electric (5809 JP): Eneos Refuses to Bump, Board Capitulates
  • ENEOS Launches Tatsuta Elec (5809) “Minority” Takeout at Same Price as 18mos Ago
  • Digging into Chosun Ilbo’s Report on SK Group’s SK Innovation & SK E&S Merger Plans
  • MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Disappointing Final Offer Poses a Vote Risk
  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse, But #2-Ranked ADD Is Close
  • Mimasu Semiconductor (8155 JP): Shin-Etsu (4063 JP)’s Tender Offer Launches
  • Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Back to Normal Trading & Index Implications
  • PC Partners (1263 HK) Muses SGX Listing & HKEx Withdrawal


TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already

By Brian Freitas

  • JPX has commenced a market consultation on changes to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) including expansion of the universe and periodic stock selection.
  • Based on current market cap/ liquidity, there could be 38 adds and 447 deletions for the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, though the changes only start in October 2026. 
  • The deletions will be phased out of the index in 8 steps that will end in July 2028 and most of the stocks will move to the TOPIX Next-tier. 

Shin-Etsu Chem TOB for Rest of Mimasu Semi (8155) – Far Too Cheap, But No Squeaky Wheel No Grease

By Travis Lundy

  • Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP), owner of a 44% stake in Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), will launch the TOB to buy out Mimasu minority holders, as pre-announced 2mos ago.
  • Not surprising. They bought in 19yrs ago, raised to 40+% 18yrs ago, then waited. Finally, we have a deal. It’s too cheap but in 18yrs, I recall zero activism here.
  • Shin-Etsu starts with ~45%, and crossholders and the chairman get it to 53%. Then they need a bit to get them to 67% but it should be straightforward.

Tatsuta Electric (5809 JP): Eneos Refuses to Bump, Board Capitulates

By Arun George

  • 18 months after announcing the offer, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) launched the Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP) tender offer at unchanged JPY720, 4.9% below the last close price.  
  • The Board requested a bump, but Eneos refused due to Tatsuta’s missed targets, no competing offer and the supportive updated IFA valuation
  • The lack of a bump, no vocal opposition, deal fatigue, the Board’s unexpected recommendation, weak earnings and 73.9% takeover premium will help acceptance.

ENEOS Launches Tatsuta Elec (5809) “Minority” Takeout at Same Price as 18mos Ago

By Travis Lundy

  • ENEOS announced its deal for Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP) 18mos ago. China approval took a while. Now they have launched. 
  • The TOPIX Non-Ferrous Metals sector has returned 60%. TOPIX 50%. There is a new TSE Sheriff in town asking for PBR 1.0x. BVPS is up. Presumably, forward CF is up.
  • But the TOB Price is unchanged. That is disappointing. One reason why a higher price was rejected was that no other buyer approached to take over the company. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Digging into Chosun Ilbo’s Report on SK Group’s SK Innovation & SK E&S Merger Plans

By Sanghyun Park

  • SK Group plans to merge SK Innovation and 90%-owned SK E&S by month-end. Chosun Ilbo’s report solidifies market confidence due to its credibility and likely intentional leak by SK Group.
  • Initially considered but deemed lower priority than SK IE Technology sale; SK Group opts for this alternative due to challenging market conditions for SKITE sale.
  • SK Innovation and SKIET rise with hopes of resolving liquidity issues and avoiding sacrifice. SK Inc is negatively impacted by concerns over valuation double counting from this merger.

MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Disappointing Final Offer Poses a Vote Risk

By Arun George

  • Cyan Renewables has bumped its Mma Offshore (MRM AU) offer to A$2.70 per share, a 3.8% premium to the previous A$2.60 offer.
  • The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. Since the binding proposal, MMA has upgraded its FY24 EBITDA and EBIT guidance by 9.8% and 15.5%, respectively.
  • The AFR reported that around 30% of the register opposed the previous offer. A cursory 3.8% bump is unlikely to sway most of these dissenters to change their views.

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse, But #2-Ranked ADD Is Close

By Travis Lundy

  • The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is six weeks away. One can no extrapolate results quite accurately. It still gives us one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
  • Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). More active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later), and only 1% to go to avoid capping.
  • There should be one DELETE, one ADD. There is a low-probability Dark Horse ADD but I expect Kokusai Electric (6525) to be added in March 2025. 

Mimasu Semiconductor (8155 JP): Shin-Etsu (4063 JP)’s Tender Offer Launches

By Arun George

  • Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP) notes that the pre-condition for Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)’s JPY3,700 tender offer has been satisfied. The tender runs from 21 June to 5 August.
  • The share price has traded at or above the offer on 15 out of 38 trading days, partly due to expectations of a counteroffer. 
  • While the offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range, it represents an all-time high. The lack of activists or competing offers suggests a done deal.

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Back to Normal Trading & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas


PC Partners (1263 HK) Muses SGX Listing & HKEx Withdrawal

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 18th June, personal computer (PC) parts and accessories play PC Partner (1263 HK) announced a profit alert for 1H24. 
  • That’s positive. What is also interesting is that the board is considering an SGX listing, by way of introduction, and applying for the withdrawal of the HKEx listing.
  • Precedents are thin on the ground. And for good reason. The process is not straightforward.

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