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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Infocom and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Infocom, Capitol Health, MMA Offshore, Mimasu, Tatsuta Elect., Great Eastern
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Exedy Corp, EOFlow, L’Occitane, Jardine Cycle & Carriage
  • Weekly Deals Digest (23 Jun) – L’Occitane, Exedy, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, MMA Offshore, Webtoon
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 21 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Infocom, Capitol Health, MMA Offshore, Mimasu, Tatsuta Elect., Great Eastern

By David Blennerhassett


Last Week in Event SPACE: Exedy Corp, EOFlow, L’Occitane, Jardine Cycle & Carriage

By David Blennerhassett

  • Murakami Group now owns 10.13% of Exedy Corp (7278 JP). Interestingly, NOMURA Aya sold 6.79% off-market to Minami Aoyama Fudosan. Has the Murakami Group made a “mistake” in its planning?
  • A big win for EOFlow (294090 KS) as the U.S. Federal Appeals Court issued its decision on overturning Insulet Corp (PODD US)‘s provisional injunction
  • L’Occitane (973 HK) finally announces the share alternative.  And  Pleasant Lake (3.25% of shares out) will accept the share offer (either cash or scrip). This is a done deal

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Jun) – L’Occitane, Exedy, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, MMA Offshore, Webtoon

By Arun George


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 21 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 16.1bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought tech and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Kweichow Moutai, Midea, appliances and renewables.
  • Ongoing questions as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected from earlier announcements.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Will Apple Intelligence Drive IPhone Maker past USD 4 Trillion in Market Cap? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Will Apple Intelligence Drive IPhone Maker past USD 4 Trillion in Market Cap?
  • Silergy (6147.TT): The Wafer Demand Is Projected to Increase by 30-40% QoQ from 2Q24 Onwards.
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ.
  • Novatek (3034.TT): To Achieve a ~5% QoQ Growth in Revenue and Relatively Flat GM QoQ in 3Q24
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)
  • European Airlines – Fare Softening Suggests Elevated Earnings Risk with Self-Help Stories Crucial
  • Lufthansa – ITA Airways Financial Sustainability Questions Without Lufthansa Partnership/Steering


Will Apple Intelligence Drive IPhone Maker past USD 4 Trillion in Market Cap?

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Never a pioneer, instead a perfectionist in delivering mind bending experience. That’s what Apple has stood for traditionally. Can it repeat the act in the Gen AI era? 
  • Siri to have advanced language comprehension and Writing Tools to deliver useful features to drive convenience and productivity. 
  • Private Cloud Compute ensures user data remains encrypted and secure. Reflects Apple’s commitment to privacy amidst growing concerns surrounding data misuse.

Silergy (6147.TT): The Wafer Demand Is Projected to Increase by 30-40% QoQ from 2Q24 Onwards.

By Patrick Liao

  • We presume Silergy is likely to see demand recovery or inventory rebuilding starting from 2Q24.
  • Silergy’s wafer demand is projected to increase by 30-40% QoQ from 2Q24 onwards.  
  • Silergy’s primary focus remains on China, Taiwan, and Korea, but the US market is promising for potential growth.  

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ.

By Patrick Liao

  • United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) 3Q24 outlook could be showing a slightly upside quarter over quarter and the gross margin is approaching to ~30%.
  • We estimate that UMC’s overall utilization in 3Q24 will be around 65-70%, with 12” at 70-75% and 8” at 60%.
  • UMC is benefiting from Novatek shipping OLED DDIC to Apple (AAPL US) in 3Q24.

Novatek (3034.TT): To Achieve a ~5% QoQ Growth in Revenue and Relatively Flat GM QoQ in 3Q24

By Patrick Liao

  • We expect Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) to achieve approximately a 5% QoQ growth in revenue and relatively flat gross margin (GM) QoQ in 3Q24.
  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) and HLMC are capable of producing DDICs at 40nm and below.
  • Novatek is experiencing a decline in demand for 55nm Touch with Display Driver (TDDI) in 3Q24.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Growth of outbound Chinese travel demand strong in May as HK, Macau slow
  • Domestic travel demand also showed solid growth in May and early June
  • Trip.com appears reasonably cheap now that it’s dipped below US$50, BUY

European Airlines – Fare Softening Suggests Elevated Earnings Risk with Self-Help Stories Crucial

By Neil Glynn

  • Forward looking fare data suggests pricing further weakening for the European flag carriers on long haul in particular.
  • We expect Lufthansa to miss EBIT guidance by 30% in 2024 while we also cut Air France-KLM 2024 EBIT by 15%.
  • IAG stands out as most resilient, with BA seemingly outperforming peer pricing on the Transatlantic.

Lufthansa – ITA Airways Financial Sustainability Questions Without Lufthansa Partnership/Steering

By Neil Glynn

  • As Lufthansa nears European Commission approval for its investment in ITA Airways, as widely reported this week, we highlight our analysis of the Italian carrier.
  • In a strong year for the global industry, heavy 2023 losses prompt questions over ITA’s financial sustainability with Lufthansa support.
  • We highlight that ITA’s problems are in revenue generation rather than operational efficiency.

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Daily Brief Australia: MMG, Mma Offshore, Rent.com.au Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MMG Rights Issue – Prospectus Issued
  • MMA Offshore Ltd – Increased Scheme Offer of $2.70/Share; Trading Update
  • Rent.com.au Ltd – Additional capital raised, RentPay customers up 64%


MMG Rights Issue – Prospectus Issued

By Rikki Malik

  • The stock price has corrected to the anticipated level and rebounded
  • Dates announced for acceptance and payment for the rights issue
  • There may be more weakness once the rights shares start  trading

MMA Offshore Ltd – Increased Scheme Offer of $2.70/Share; Trading Update

By MA Moelis Australia

  • Cyan MMA Holdings Pty Ltd (Cyan) has increased its scheme consideration to $2.70 cash per share, up from $2.60 per share and has designated the offer as best and final.
  • A supplementary Scheme Booklet is expected to be released 21 June; scheme voting is for 1 July.
  • MMA Offshore Ltd (MRM) recently released a 2H24 trading update, noting earnings visibility and performance across the current half has continued to improve.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Rent.com.au Ltd – Additional capital raised, RentPay customers up 64%

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published an update report on purpose-led proptech Rent.com.au (ASX:RNT) following its fully-underwritten entitlement offer to raise $2.5m at $0.02/share, with one quoted option for every two shares issued.
  • Separately and on June 3, RNT provided a trading update in which it announced that RentPay’s customers at the end of May were up 64% to 9,271.
  • We have incorporated the capital raise in our forecasts, but having already modelled an additional $2.5m raise in H2 FY25, the impact to our forecasts is only due at the EPS line.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | The KOSPI 200 Is Ready to Pullback (Again)


EQD | The KOSPI 200 Is Ready to Pullback (Again)

By Nico Rosti

  • After 3 weeks up in a row the KOSPI 200 is ripe for a pullback.
  • The reversal is probably going to begin this coming week.
  • If the index goes higher, look at 391 resistance targets to initiate SHORT trades or to cover your LONGs.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Yoma Strategic Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Singapore’s Biggest Index Movers in 2Q24


Singapore’s Biggest Index Movers in 2Q24

By Geoff Howie

  • As of 20 June, the FTSE ST All-Share Index generated a 3.9% total return in 2Q24, outpacing the FTSE Asia Pacific Index (+2.7%) and FTSE ASEAN All-Share Index (-1.9%).
  • The 10 strongest performers of the FTSE ST All-Share Index in 2Q24 (to 20 June) averaged 37% total returns, and were led by Yoma Strategic, Samudera Shipping and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding.
  • On the other side of the FTSE ST All-Share Index constituent performances, Food Empire Holdings has declined 19% in 2Q24 (to 20 June), reducing its total return since the end of 2019 to 95%.

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Daily Brief United States: Crowdstrike Holdings , Crude Oil, Iqvia Holdings, Bitcoin, United Parks and Resorts, Spruce Biosciences and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • CrowdStrike Joins S&P 500
  • [ETP 25/2024] Energy Majors Bounce Back; Their Expansion Spree Continues
  • IQVIA Deep Dive
  • Crypto Moves #33 – Dazzling Positivity on the Horizon
  • United Parks & Resorts Inc (PRKS) – Thursday, Mar 21, 2024
  • Spruce Biosciences Inc (SPRB) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024


CrowdStrike Joins S&P 500

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On June 24, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) will officially join the S&P 500, which follows strong financial results and guidance. Investors anticipated this inclusion, driven by improved profitability and operational efficiency.
  • The volume traded has so far been on average 2x the 3-month daily average prior to the news. The enduring effect will be on liquidity (hedging basket for index exposure).
  • CrowdStrike’s inclusion in the S&P 500 index increases the representation of pure cybersecurity stocks. Median IBES consensus PT is $400 (7.5% upside).

[ETP 25/2024] Energy Majors Bounce Back; Their Expansion Spree Continues

By Suhas Reddy

  • The gap between OPEC and IEA’s oil demand forecasts widened: OPEC kept its 2024 forecast at 2.25m bpd, while IEA lowered its forecast to 960k bpd from 1.1m bpd.
  • Europe’s attempt to cut Russian LNG imports grows stronger, as the French Senate Committee recommends cutting Russian dependence.
  • Since 17/June, Energy majors began recovering. Berkshire increased its holdings in Occidental, while Shell expanded its LNG market access by acquiring Pavilion Energy.

IQVIA Deep Dive

By MBI Deep Dives

  • Back in 2016, IMS Health and Quintiles went through a merger of equals to form “QuintilesIMS” which was later renamed to be “IQVIA” in 2017.
  • “I” and “Q” stand for IMS Health and Quintiles respectively and “VIA” means “by way of”.
  • Since IMS and Quintiles both used to be separate public companies, let me discuss these two businesses separately at first before getting into the details of their post-merger status.

Crypto Moves #33 – Dazzling Positivity on the Horizon

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Today’s edition of Crypto Moves builds on this week’s Crypto Crisp, where we advocated a bullish outlook on the crypto market.
  • I have examined all of our charts to find every reason to maintain a long position in the current crypto market. Let us dive in.
  • From this week onwards, we anticipate a significant increase in liquidity over the next few months. This liquidity forecast model has been highly accurate in recent months.

United Parks & Resorts Inc (PRKS) – Thursday, Mar 21, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • United Parks & Resorts (PRKS) is proposing a $500 million share repurchase authorization to decrease share count and float significantly at current prices.
  • The buyback, if approved, could be completed by the end of 2024 and potentially drive double-digit EBITDA growth, leading to an 80% increase in stock price to $100.
  • With a leverage of 2.5x EBITDA, the company may also be a candidate for sale or privatization, with Hill Path ownership increasing to 49% and potential for significant premium buyouts.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Spruce Biosciences Inc (SPRB) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • SPRB is developing tildacerfont, a second-generation CRF1 antagonist for CAH treatment
  • Recent Phase 2 trial failure doesn’t negate potential, but upcoming trial results are more relevant
  • Market overreaction to negative news creates attractive opportunity for investors, with upside potential and downside protection for SPRB

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief India: Allied Blenders & Distillers, Edelweiss Financial Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Allied Blenders and Distillers – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation
  • Edelweiss: Co-Lending Led Credit Business Is Now Gaining Momentum


Allied Blenders and Distillers – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN) is looking to raise about US$180m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • ABD is the largest Indian-owned Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) company and the third largest IMFL company in India, in terms of annual sales volumes between FY14 and FY22.
  • In our previous notes, we talked about various aspects of the company. In this note, we talk about its RHP updates and our thoughts on valuation.

Edelweiss: Co-Lending Led Credit Business Is Now Gaining Momentum

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Edelweiss reported a strong Q4FY24 led by robust performance across businesses. The asset management business continues to be the lead performer. Insurance businesses are also growing at an industry-leading pace.
  • Most notably, the credit business seems to be gaining momentum now, led by co-lending. MSME co-lending disbursements tripled while housing finance (HFC) co-lending disbursements doubled in FY24. 
  • To unlock value and reduce debt at the corporate level, Edelweiss is planning a minority stake sale in the Alternative Asset Management business.

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Daily Brief China: China Merchants China Direct Investments, Tianju Dihe Technology, Foxconn Industrial Internet and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just
  • Tianju Dihe Technology IPO: Limited Room For Multiple Expansion Despite Healthy Growth
  • Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact


CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just

By David Blennerhassett

  • At the AGM yesterday, China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)‘s director Elizabeth Kan was re-appointed, but by a wafer-thin margin: 29.97% of shares out FOR, and 29.44% AGAINST.
  • Stripping out Victor Chu’s stake (~2%?) and China Merchant’s (27.6%), or collectively ~29.6% of shares out, it’s fair to say the remainder of the shareholder register wants her out. 
  • CMCDI is currently trading at a 55% discount to the latest NAV (as at 31st May 2024) of HK$30.42/share.  Argyle continues to add to its position. 

Tianju Dihe Technology IPO: Limited Room For Multiple Expansion Despite Healthy Growth

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Tianju Dihe Technology, a provider of integrated API-enabled data exchange services in China, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~HK$400M in June.
  • The initial public offering is expected to be priced at HK$83.33 per H share, valuing the technology company at ~HK$4.2B or $535M based on 50.1M outstanding shares.  
  • Cornerstone investors have agreed to acquire ~3.8M H shares, representing 80% of the offer shares or ~8% of the total outstanding shares.

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Not much has changed since our latest Int’l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled “Buy the Pullback.” 
  • We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
  • Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.

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Daily Brief Japan: Migalo Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Migalo Holdings (5535 JP) – Full-Year FY2024/3 Earnings Review
  • Content of Disclosures Is Important, but the Focus Has Shifted to Whether the Goals Can Be Achieved


Migalo Holdings (5535 JP) – Full-Year FY2024/3 Earnings Review

By Sessa Investment Research

  • On May 9, 2024, Migalo Holdings Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced its full- year FY2024/3 earnings results.
  • Sales rose 14.5% YoY to ¥42,672 mn, and operating profit fell 14.4% YoY to ¥2,500 mn, largely in line with the Company’s full-year forecast calling for sales to rise 12.7% YoY to ¥42,000 mn and operating profit to drop 14.4% YoY to ¥2,500 mn.
  • The Company will pay a year-end dividend of ¥45 per share, including a commemorative dividend of ¥5 per share to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the founding of its predecessor, Property Agent, Inc.

Content of Disclosures Is Important, but the Focus Has Shifted to Whether the Goals Can Be Achieved

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies with higher foreign shareholdings have superior board practices, suggesting that overseas investor engagement played an important role in improving management that resulted in return on capital.
  • Clues to changes in management reform can be found in the percentage of independent board members, the percentage of female board members, and policy shareholdings/total assets.
  • While the substance of the goals is important, the focus has shifted to management’s strong will to achieve the goals to raise valuations and return on capital.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Mma Offshore, Severfield PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • MMA Offshore Ltd – Increased Scheme Offer of $2.70/Share; Trading Update
  • Severfield – Performing well with improving outlook


MMA Offshore Ltd – Increased Scheme Offer of $2.70/Share; Trading Update

By MA Moelis Australia

  • Cyan MMA Holdings Pty Ltd (Cyan) has increased its scheme consideration to $2.70 cash per share, up from $2.60 per share and has designated the offer as best and final.
  • A supplementary Scheme Booklet is expected to be released 21 June; scheme voting is for 1 July.
  • MMA Offshore Ltd (MRM) recently released a 2H24 trading update, noting earnings visibility and performance across the current half has continued to improve.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Severfield – Performing well with improving outlook

By Edison Investment Research

Severfield’s FY24 results demonstrate robust profit growth despite declining revenue, and management highlighted the positive outlook in its key markets of the UK, Continental Europe and India. The total order book has also remained at elevated levels despite the loss of the £50m Sunset Studios order, highlighting the underlying future earnings visibility. The FY25e P/E rating of 8.1x is comfortably below the long-term average of c 10x, implying material risk is discounted in the rating. The stock yields over 5% despite a recent bounce in the share price, an added attraction.


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