Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• On 25 June, Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) disclosed an in-specie distribution of its PD&S business through a scrip or cash (HK$5.90 per share, 57.33% premium to undisturbed price).
• The key condition will be approval of the distribution by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection).
• Midea RE will remain listed with an asset-light retained business, which is estimated to be worth HK$1.93. The Group’s estimated value is HK$7.83, a 17.6% upside to the last close.

• Naspers and Prosus released results for FY24 yesterday morning. The initial market reaction was positive, both discounts closed narrower for the day.
• Since the appointment of Fabricio Bloisi was announced in May, both discounts have widened.
• JSE indices were rebalanced in the closing auction on Friday. Turnover for the day on the JSE was R58bn, R38bn traded in the closing auction (66%).

• The Cancellation Price of HK$24.60 per share is about 50% lower than the IPO price of HK$49.6 per share in 2019. So, those long-term investors would suffer big losses.
• Henlius’ share price has outperformed the index. If it remains listed, it’s able to continue to grow and provide long-term returns for shareholders. Reasonable Cancellation Price should be above HK$30/share.
• As usual, Fosun doesn’t consider the interests of long-term investors and shareholders. There would be some investors/shareholders vote against the privatization, but the returns for arbitrageurs is not bad.

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the September 2024 index rebal event.
• We currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the STAR 50 index resulting in one-way flows of US$681mn.

• ZJLD Group (6979 HK) held its annual general meeting last Friday (June 21). 
• The share price is down 21% in the last 30 days, mainly due to a major sector pullback.
• I continue to expect 20% net profit growth for the company in 2024E.  The company is trading at 13x 2024E PE which I believe is attractive. 

We view New World Development (NWD) as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. The company is one of the leading Hong Kong-based property developers and the flagship real estate arm of the Chow Tai Fook (CTF) group. NWD has an established property-development track record in Hong Kong and Mainland China, as well as a sizeable and growing portfolio of investment properties (under the premium K11 brand) in both regions. In addition, it has a large land bank (particularly in Hong Kong), which would support its development pipeline.

Overall, we believe NWD’s credit profile is underpinned by expectation of support from the CTF group, as well as its high quality and mostly unencumbered investment property portfolio. That said, the company has high leverage and weak financial metrics.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on NWD is “Negative”. This is mainly on account of the challenging industry environment, which has pressured the company’s property development contracted sales and margins. Going forward, NWD is likely to gradually grow its rental income from investment properties, supported by contributions from newly completed assets. Positively, management has communicated a deleveraging plan, albeit this may hinge on the company’s ability to carry out further non-core asset disposals.  

Controversies are “Immaterial”. In 2021, NWD had to demolish and rebuild two out of seven blocks at The Pavilia Farm Phase 3 project, after the building contractor found construction defects during concrete strength tests. That said, the company adequately compensated affected homebuyers and commissioned an independent third party to carry out tests on the project’s Phase 1 and 2 sections. In 2008, NWD became the subject of a minor controversy after it appointed a former top civil servant (Leung Chin-man, who was Hong Kong’s Permanent Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands from 2002 to 2005) as deputy MD and ED of NWCL. The appointment was subsequently rescinded after a public outcry. Overall, the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”. 

We initiate coverage on NWD with a “Hold” recommendation on the NWDEVL notes. We believe investors with a higher risk appetite can consider investing in the three NWDEVL perpetual securities that contain coupon step-ups (in the event of non-call at their respective first call dates), considering the attractive YTC. 

• Xiao-I (NASDAQ: AIXI) is leveraging its existing relationships and signing new clients at an impressive pace.
• The company has announced nearly a dozen new products or relationships utilizing its AI platforms in the past two months.
• Competition remains intense in the AI market and we think investors are questioning if Xiao-I has the financial capacity to remain competitive across multiple industries as private and public companies continue to invest heavily in its core markets.

• Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China’s PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;
• With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;
• The big question is the price elasticity following Cadonilimab’s inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Medco Energi