Smartkarma Daily Briefs

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), Trial Holdings (5882 JP), PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) and Merdeka Battery Materials (2012725D IJ) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU).

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Apr) – Toshiba, Toyo, AAG, Origin, United Malt, Liontown, Mincor, Healius

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo.
Lowest spreads Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), SHL Japan Ltd (4327 JP).

Hyundai Elevator: Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-Eun Loses A Major Lawsuit Against Schindler Group

By Douglas Kim

On 30 March, it was announced that Hyun Jeong-Eun (Chairwoman of the Hyundai Group) lost a final lawsuit against the Schindler Group.
The Supreme Court upheld an appeal court ruling that Chairwoman Hyun needs to pay 170 billion won (US$131 million) and delayed interest payments to Hyundai Elevator.
Although this major lawsuit loss for Chairwoman Hyun is a tremendous catalyst, the downturn in the construction sector and uncertainty in the reduction in Chairwoman’s stake remain key negatives.

Socionext Lock-Up – Up 2.67x Since IPO. US$930m Worth of Shares to Be Unlocked

By Clarence Chu

Socionext (6526 JP) was listed on 12th Oct 2022, when it raised US$457m in its upsized Japan IPO. Its six-month lockup will expire on 9th Apr 2023.
Socionext is a fabless semiconductor provider which commenced operations after integrating the system on a chip (SoC) businesses of Fujitsu Semiconductor Limited and Panasonic Holding Corporation in 2015.
Coming up for six-month lockup expiry are the Development Bank of Japan, Fujitsu and Panasonic, the trio had each trimmed their respective stakes in the IPO.

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Apr 03

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Heading Towards Another Fruitful Year and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Heading Towards Another Fruitful Year
Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK/688331.CH) – The Story Has Changed
Meilan Airport (357 HK): Higher Visibility into Earnings Recovery Outlook
Space Race Reality Check

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Heading Towards Another Fruitful Year

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)‘s 35.1% increase in FY22 recurring earnings demonstrated its healthy operations. Slowdown in 4Q22 (+14.4% YoY) is more a result of pandemic disruption.
Record new orders of Rmb65.6bn were signed FY22 (+16.3% YoY), and 4Q22 even saw a 25% growth. End-FY22 backlog is estimated to be enough to cover 1.66x FY22 revenue.
DEC targets a 35% growth in power generation equipment production volume in FY23. Power storage, including pumped storage, and hydrogen energy are important engines going forward.

Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK/688331.CH) – The Story Has Changed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Considering DS-8201’s outstanding data and strong competing drugs, RC48 would probably contribute revenue to RemeGen mainly from GC and UC indications in China.Overseas revenue would be mainly from UC indication.
After Pfizer acquired Seagen, there are concerns that RC48 (a “Me-Worse”) may be returned by Pfizer. If it is the case, only the revenue in China market should be considered.
Based on 2022 annual results, we think it is time to reassess the outlook and sales forecast of RC48 and RC18, because the story has changed for RemeGen.

Meilan Airport (357 HK): Higher Visibility into Earnings Recovery Outlook

By Eric Chen

FY22 results announced last week were in line excluding non-recurring items. The results provided latest evidence of monetization potential of its passenger traffic and insights into its cost base.
We trim 2023 net profit estimate by 10% to RMB520 million and maintain RMB1 billion net profit estimate for 2025. Expect 25%/150% return by 2023/25 respectively based on 20x P/E.
Duty-Free concession agreement renewal in 2025 is a key positive catalyst, but we also caution potential follow-on share issuance this year could be an overhang on stock price.

Space Race Reality Check

By subSPAC

This week, space launch company Virgin Galactic’s funding woes escalated as emergency talks with potential investors fell through.
As a result, the company announced a staggering 85% workforce reduction and paused operations until further funding is secured.
Since going public in 2021 with a $3.7 billion valuation, Virgin Orbit’s value has plummeted by 99% as of its last close, highlighting the realities of space investing.

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Apr 02

Daily Brief United States: Resmed Inc, Global Payments, Quanta Services, Burlington Stores and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

ResMed Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Acquisitions & Other Key Drivers
Global Payments Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Restructuring & Other Drivers
Global Payments Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
Quanta Services Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
Quanta Services Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Recent Developments
Burlington Stores Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
ResMed Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
Burlington Stores Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

ResMed Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Acquisitions & Other Key Drivers

This is our first report on ResMed, a leading medical equipment company that specializes in the treatment of sleep apnea and other respiratory disorders.
The company delivered financial results in the last quarter with revenues below par but managed an earnings beat.
In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Global Payments Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Restructuring & Other Drivers

This is our first report on Global Payments Inc., a financial technology company providing payment solutions and services in the U.S.
The company managed an all-around beat in its last result with a strong performance in Global Payments despite the increased global macroeconomic uncertainties.
The most significant development was that their core Issuer business once more produced sequential financial and operational improvement, in line with their expectations and the strongest results since their merger with TSYS in 2019.

Global Payments Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Global Payments is a financial technology player providing payment solutions and services in the U.S.
The company has decent fundamentals and performed well in 2022 despite the increased global macroeconomic uncertainties.
With EVO, they strengthened their position as a major provider of payments technology with broad reach around the globe.

Quanta Services Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Quanta Services is a key player providing infrastructure solutions for the electric and gas utility, renewable energy, communications, and pipeline and energy industries across the globe.
Its revenues for Electric Power Infrastructure Solutions reached significant levels, maintained margins, and grew market share.
In addition, their subsurface utility and infrastructure solutions division continually delivered a strong performance.

Quanta Services Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Recent Developments

This is our first report on Quanta Services, a major provider of infrastructure solutions for the electric and gas utility, renewable energy, communications, and pipeline and energy industries.
Its revenues for Electric Power Infrastructure Solutions reached significant levels, maintained margins, and grew market share.
In addition, their subsurface utility and infrastructure solutions division continually delivered a strong performance.

Burlington Stores Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

This is our first report on Burlington Stores, Inc., one of the major off-price retailer chains in the U.S.
The company delivered a strong quarter, with sizable, consecutive improvement in its sales trends.
Comparable store sales increased by 6% and the the result was an all-around beat.

ResMed Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

ResMed is a leading medical technology player that specializes in the treatment of sleep apnea and other respiratory disorders.
Globally, the demand for masks increased significantly, which is indicative of a post-COVID pandemic knowledge of the value and necessity of respiratory hygiene and respiratory health.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

Burlington Stores Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Burlington Stores is one of the major off-price retailer chains in the U.S.
The company has strong fundamentals and has seen sizable, consecutive improvement in its sales trends in recent times.
The management interprets this increase in traffic as a sign that the macro headwinds may be beginning to weaken.

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Apr 02

Daily Brief China: Meituan, AIM Vaccine, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, S.M.Entertainment, Toyo, Mincor, JD.com, AAG
China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.31) – 8th National VBP Result, Chinese Patent Medicine VBP, AIM Vaccine
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Bull Market?

Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, S.M.Entertainment, Toyo, Mincor, JD.com, AAG

By David Blennerhassett

One may presume that Prosus (PRX NA) moved their Meituan (3690 HK) shares received from their non-CCASS holdings of Tencent (700 HK). It does not tell us much else.
Allocation in the S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) partial Offer was 44.14%. With shares trading ~₩95k, that was a pretty good outcome.
Toyo Construction (1890 JP) has asked the Japanese government to investigate YFO’s alleged breaches of FEFTA. Expect YFO to say they did no wrong. Expect Toyo to complain about it.

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.31) – 8th National VBP Result, Chinese Patent Medicine VBP, AIM Vaccine

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The 8th national VBP released results, with an average price reduction of 56%. On the whole, the peak period of the impact of VBP on pharmaceutical companies has passed.
VBP document of Chinese patent medicines was released, which would affect a market with scale of RMB300 billion. Enterprises with rich product matrices/new products can better cope with this VBP.
For AIM, we listed several key points. Since the management are more interested in short term capital gains rather than developing a superior portfolio, AIM doesn’t have long-term investment value.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Bull Market?

By Simon Harris

Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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Apr 02

Daily Brief Japan: Rakuten Bank, Lasertec Corp, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Toshiba Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Rakuten Bank IPO: Valuation Insights
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Nikkei225, KOSDAQ150, KT Corp
Japanese Managers Have Always Wanted to Distance Themselves from Market Pressures
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

Rakuten Bank IPO: Valuation Insights

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) is an online bank in Japan. It is looking to raise up to $878m. Pricing is on 5 April and the listing is on 21 April.
We previously discussed the IPO in Rakuten Bank IPO: The Investment Case and Rakuten Bank Vs SBI Sumishin Net Bank.
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Rakuten Bank is fairly valued at the IPO price range of JPY1,630-1,960 per share. We would participate in the IPO.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Nikkei225, KOSDAQ150, KT Corp

The March rebalances of the NIFTY indices and the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) were implemented last week. Plus some ad hoc rebalances for the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDQ150 INDEX.
A quieter week coming up with multiple market holidays across markets. We also near the start of the review period for the MSCI May QCIR.
There were inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) and iShares FTSE/Xinhua A50 China (2823 HK) during the week while there were outflows from some Korea ETFs.

Japanese Managers Have Always Wanted to Distance Themselves from Market Pressures

By Aki Matsumoto

It’s skeptical that managers before the bubble economy really took risks. They no longer are protected by regulations as they were before, and must take risks on their own initiative.
The Stewardship Code and Corporate Governance Code were introduced in the hope that they would provide a boost to standstill managers to improve profitability to increase corporate value.
Exit from the market is an important factor, but it can decelerate the speed at which exits are facilitated, such as maintaining listing through transitional measures or changing TOB rules.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

By David Blennerhassett

There are 44 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Albemarle (ALB US)‘s Liontown Resources (LTR AU) tilt; Malteries Soufflet’s United Malt (UMG AU) Offer; Bain Capital’s Estia (EHE AU) Offer.
Key updates took place for Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), andGolden Energy & Resources (GER SP).

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Apr 02

Most Read: Nitori Holdings, Japan Airlines, Kunlun Tech, DGB Financial Group, Cellivery Therapeutics, Soulbrain, DB Hitek Co., Ltd., Rakuten Bank, Lasertec Corp, Meituan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Passives Trade on Friday
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI KR, S&P/ASX, SSE50, ChiNext, NIFTY, KQ150, AMFI, Rakuten Bank
KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)
KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Humasis (205470 KS) To Replace Cellivery (268600 KS)
Introducing Another Long Short Basket Trading Event with Semicon ETF Rebalancing in Korea
DB Hitek: KCGI Goes Activist & A Potential Inclusion in MSCI Korea Standard Index in 2023
Rakuten Bank IPO: Valuation Insights
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Nikkei225, KOSDAQ150, KT Corp
Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, S.M.Entertainment, Toyo, Mincor, JD.com, AAG

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses

The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends end July. We highlight 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.
There are a few alternate adds that are interesting and their inclusion in the index could move things around a fair bit.
Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 0.5x ADV on many index constituents.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Passives Trade on Friday

Oriental Land (4661 JP), Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), Japan Airlines (9201 JP) will replace Toyobo (3101 JP), Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP), Toho Zinc (5707 JP) in the Nikkei 225.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.08% and will result in a round-trip trade of JPY 412.8bn (US$3.16bn) at the close on 31 March.
There has been recent pre-positioning on the stocks as well as movement in short interest over the last couple of months.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI KR, S&P/ASX, SSE50, ChiNext, NIFTY, KQ150, AMFI, Rakuten Bank

There are a bunch of implementations in the coming week, the largest being the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance.
There are some ad hoc changes to the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index following constituent stocks being designated as Administrative Issues and Investment Attention Issues.
Inflows to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC US) have continued and has taken AUM to a new high.

KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

As expected, DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) replaces Meritz Securities (008560 KS) in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the close on 31 March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 5.15m shares (KRW 35.5bn; 12.1 days of ADV) of DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) at the close of trading on 31 March.
DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and Price to Book. There could be relative outperformance over the next week.

KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Humasis (205470 KS) To Replace Cellivery (268600 KS)

Following Cellivery Therapeutics (268600 KS) designation as an Administrative Issue and an Investment Attention Issue, the stock will be deleted from the KOSDAQ 150 Index and replaced with Humasis (205470 KS).
The timing of the index change is currently uncertain but will be implemented latest by the close of trading on 17 April.
Humasis (205470 KS) was limit up on Friday following the ex-date of a 1:3 scrip issue. The stock could continue to move higher over the next week.

Introducing Another Long Short Basket Trading Event with Semicon ETF Rebalancing in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor TOP 10 ETF saw a rapid increase in AUM in a short period. Currently, AUM has reached 126 billion won.
Compared to the flow size, the price movement magnitude was substantial. What is particularly important is that the correlation between weight change direction and price impact was quite significant.
Considering Long Short basket trading based on the weight change direction on a day trading window seems worthwhile.

DB Hitek: KCGI Goes Activist & A Potential Inclusion in MSCI Korea Standard Index in 2023

By Douglas Kim

It was announced on 30 March that a local activist firm called KCGI has invested 7.05% stake in DB Hitek, spending 196.4 billion won on buying this amount.
KCGI mentioned that DB Hitek’s corporate value is extremely undervalued that the company should cancel its treasury shares and establish independent Board of Directors.
The probability of DB Hitek being included in MSCI Korea Standard could rise materially if its market cap climbs to more than 4 trillion won in the coming weeks.

Rakuten Bank IPO: Valuation Insights

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) is an online bank in Japan. It is looking to raise up to $878m. Pricing is on 5 April and the listing is on 21 April.
We previously discussed the IPO in Rakuten Bank IPO: The Investment Case and Rakuten Bank Vs SBI Sumishin Net Bank.
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Rakuten Bank is fairly valued at the IPO price range of JPY1,630-1,960 per share. We would participate in the IPO.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Nikkei225, KOSDAQ150, KT Corp