All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Japan: Honda Motor, MS&AD Insurance, Fast Retailing, Daiseki Co Ltd, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming?
  • Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Jul24)
  • Fast Retailing (9983) | Red Hot Summer
  • Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update
  • Key to Look Carefully to See if What Is Disclosed Is Consistent with Profitability and Other Results


BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming?

By Travis Lundy

  • Today just before the close, Reuters came out with an article saying Japan’s four major insurers and some financial institutions would offer ¥500bn of shares in a secondary offering.
  • That implies about 275-280mm shares (insurers hold ~195mm). In May, Honda announced a ¥300bn buyback with earnings, with nothing done so far. 
  • The supply/demand dynamics here are key. There are a lot of moving parts over time. Honda is cheaper than it looks but there are moving parts there too.

Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Jul24)

By Travis Lundy

  • This month (June) saw 1,673 Corporate Governance Reports filed and 5 new “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” policies filed. 
  • We created a tool show every report, provide links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.
  • We hope this took will help. It is designed to be a shelf reference. We update the tool once a month, a couple of weeks ahead of the TSE.

Fast Retailing (9983) | Red Hot Summer

By Mark Chadwick

  • Domestic Uniqlo SSS (including e-commerce) were +14.9% in June. Positive
  • Impressive +8.1% increase in customer traffic and +6.3% gain in per-customer spend
  • I have a bearish view on Fast Retailing due to rich valuations (25x EV/EBIT). However, the share price may perform well in the run up to the Q3 report.

Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY02/25, Daiseki reported sales of JPY16.7bn (-6.6% YoY), gross profit of JPY5.9bn (-1.1% YoY), and operating profit of JPY3.9bn (-0.7% YoY).
  • Daiseki Co.’s sales increased 7.0% YoY, while DES’s sales fell 28.4% YoY, leading to a consolidated sales decrease.
  • Consolidated operating profit for Q1 decreased by 0.7% YoY to JPY3.9bn, with OPM rising 1.4pp to 23.4%.

Key to Look Carefully to See if What Is Disclosed Is Consistent with Profitability and Other Results

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The problem with cross-shareholdings is not simply that they weigh heavily on ROE and ROA improvement, but also that they do not create tension in management.
  • The degree of seriousness of the company’s efforts to reduce policy shareholdings is a measure of the improvement in return on capital. The level of seriousness must be monitored.
  • The fact that there are inappropriate entries in the items required of prime market listed companies indicates that many companies are not suitable for prime market listed companies.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Most Read: Honda Motor, SenseTime Group , MS&AD Insurance, L’Occitane, Hyundai Mobis, CPMC Holdings, Robosense Technology, HDFC Bank, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Stella International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming?
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September
  • Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Jul24)
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Tendering Now Open
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2024
  • CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization – Some New Information Worth the Attention
  • Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement
  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Foreign Room Crosses 25%; Index Implications & Positioning for US$5bn+ Buying
  • China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September


BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming?

By Travis Lundy

  • Today just before the close, Reuters came out with an article saying Japan’s four major insurers and some financial institutions would offer ¥500bn of shares in a secondary offering.
  • That implies about 275-280mm shares (insurers hold ~195mm). In May, Honda announced a ¥300bn buyback with earnings, with nothing done so far. 
  • The supply/demand dynamics here are key. There are a lot of moving parts over time. Honda is cheaper than it looks but there are moving parts there too.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

By Brian Freitas


Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Jul24)

By Travis Lundy

  • This month (June) saw 1,673 Corporate Governance Reports filed and 5 new “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” policies filed. 
  • We created a tool show every report, provide links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.
  • We hope this took will help. It is designed to be a shelf reference. We update the tool once a month, a couple of weeks ahead of the TSE.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Tendering Now Open

By David Blennerhassett

  • Exactly two weeks after the scrip alternative was announced, L’Occitane (973 HK)‘s Composite Document has been issued. The Offer is now open for acceptances.
  • The IFA (Somerley) considers terms to be fair & reasonable. A lifetime high coupled with a scrip option – yes, this is fair. 
  • Keep an eye on CCASS moves prior to the first closing date, the 23rd July. I have a call with the FA tomorrow. Hit me up with any questions.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2024.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 21 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months, suggesting increased capital allocation to Korean holdcos relative to their opcos.
  • These pairs could generate trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal (Doosan Corp vs. Doosan Enerbility; Hyundai Mobis vs Hyundai Motor).

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization – Some New Information Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • ORG purchased 27% of CPMC’s shares at HK$6/share in 2015.After about eight years, Baosteel’s Offer Price was only HK$6.87/share. The annualized return rate was low, which obviously cannot satisfy ORG.
  • Baosteel and CPMC have been in talks for a long time – There may have been some “tacit agreement” between the two parties. The approval process is smooth so far.
  • For acquisitions/consolidation between SOEs, private enterprises usually have limited chances of winning.ORG has financial pressure and the approval process face uncertainties. There would be more negotiations among CPMC, ORG, Baosteel.

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

By Sumeet Singh

  • Robosense Technology (2498 HK) raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.
  • The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Foreign Room Crosses 25%; Index Implications & Positioning for US$5bn+ Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign shareholding in HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped to 54.83% and that results in foreign room crossing the ‘magical’ 25% mark.
  • The increase in foreign room could lead to passive trackers of a global index needing to buy 256m shares (US$5.3bn; 11.5x ADV) at the end of August.
  • There will definitely be positioning in the stock but there should still be upside in the stock. The HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US) line was up 4.5% overnight.

China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The slow progress of privatization is related to recent high-level changes in CNPGC. Decisions on SOE deals with “strategic purpose” require careful considerations, not based on “one leader’s personal preferences”.
  • Based on public information, we cannot find convincing reason to prove that CNPGC has changed its mind.There’re rumors that China TCM’s privatization is still considered important project on the agenda.
  • China TCM’s has strong fundamentals to support valuation. If there is no announcement, the privatization process is expected to proceed as usual, and we continue to wait for the voting.  

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
  • We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 28th): Lg Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 28th): Lg Electronics, Hyundai Motor


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 28th): Lg Electronics, Hyundai Motor

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Jun 28th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.9bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Lg Electronics, Hyundai Motor.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD


Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

By Joe Jasper

  • Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.
  • This was a possibility we discussed in last week’s Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.
  • We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ESG: Casino Guichard-Perrachon – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Casino Guichard-Perrachon – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Key to Look Carefully to See if What Is Disclosed Is Consistent with Profitability and Other Results


Casino Guichard-Perrachon – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Casino Guichard-Perrachon’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental score, while the Social pillar is “Strong”. We assess Governance as “Weak” due to a lack of data following the company’s recent debt restructuring, which led to a change of control. Controversies are “Material”, while Disclosure is “Strong”. 


Key to Look Carefully to See if What Is Disclosed Is Consistent with Profitability and Other Results

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The problem with cross-shareholdings is not simply that they weigh heavily on ROE and ROA improvement, but also that they do not create tension in management.
  • The degree of seriousness of the company’s efforts to reduce policy shareholdings is a measure of the improvement in return on capital. The level of seriousness must be monitored.
  • The fact that there are inappropriate entries in the items required of prime market listed companies indicates that many companies are not suitable for prime market listed companies.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Tesla Surprises Wall Street and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Tesla Surprises Wall Street
  • Online Game Monitor: June 16-July 1, 2024
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK
  • US Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part I
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD/PDD/BABA/BILI/BIDU/700HK/3888HK/1024HK/NTES /3690HK/TCOM/SE/CPNG/BZ
  • US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker: Update – June 2024
  • #22 India Insight: Increase in Windfall Tax on Crude Oil, L&T Offshore Order, M&M Volume Rise
  • Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/BIDU US/AMZN US/BABA US/002230 SZ/9992 HK/1024 HK


Ohayo Japan | Tesla Surprises Wall Street

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reaching new record highs, driven by a surge in Tesla share
  • NKY Futures point to a strong open, continuing the strong momentum from yesterday. 
  • Tokio Marine and Sompo maybe planning to sell approximately 500 billion yen ($3.1 billion) worth of Honda shares

Online Game Monitor: June 16-July 1, 2024

By Stan Zhao

  • Bilibili’s <Three Kingdom: MDTX> continues to show strong monetization performance, Based on our data tracking, we are raising the annual grossing estimate by 25% to approximately RMB 5.5 billion.
  • NetEase’s <Naraka Mobile> has surpassed 40 million pre-registrations, making it the most pre-registered game in NetEase’s history. We are raising the annual grossing estimate by 20% to RMB 12 billion.
  • Tencent’s <FGS> has seen a continuous rise in popularity following the release of the new mode. We are raising the annual grossing estimate by 10% to RMB 13 billion.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

By Eric Wen

  • 1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: EV sales were strong in the 25th week of 2024, with several brands reaching new highs (/////////)
  • ATAT US:The first Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi’an. (+)
  • Ministry of Commerce: Mainland China will increase the tax-free allowance for luggage carried by resident travelers entering from Hong Kong and Macao

US Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part I

By Eric Wen

  • One year after June 30, 2023, only 18% more of total battery capacities were added in US, below EU’s 26% more added over the same period;
  • Chinese companies have largely shunned away from US investments, contributing only 8.7% of total. Most Chinese investments are in the mineral, instead of cell and package segments;
  • Envision/AESC alone contributed 2/3 of Chinese investments in US and is the only Chinese company investing in the cell segment.None invests in the package segment.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD/PDD/BABA/BILI/BIDU/700HK/3888HK/1024HK/NTES /3690HK/TCOM/SE/CPNG/BZ

By Ying Pan

  • JD US/PDD US /BABA US: JD launches new low-priced initiative to target lower-tier market (+/-/-)
  • BABA US/BILI US/BIDU US/700HK: Bilibili and Xiaohongshu inaccessible after 38-minute cloud crash (-/-/+/+)
  • 700 HK: Tencent announces upgraded LLM training system . (+)

US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker: Update – June 2024

By Garvit Bhandari

  • Total public EV charging stations (incl. temporary unavailable locations) were 70,222 as of June 30, 2024. Compared to the end of FY23, it is an increase of 8.6%.
  • Total EVSE charging ports (including the temporary unavailable ports) were188,025, up nearly 11.7% compared to the end of 2023 and up 1.8% over May 2024.
  • California has the highest number of EV charging stations in the country. It accounts for a 25% share of public EV charging stations and 26% of public EV charging ports.

#22 India Insight: Increase in Windfall Tax on Crude Oil, L&T Offshore Order, M&M Volume Rise

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Government Hikes Windfall Tax on Crude Oil to Rs.6,000 per Tonne from Rs.3,250
  • Larsen & Turbo Secures Significant Offshore Order worth Rs. 2,500 crores from ONGC
  • Mahindra & Mahindra Total volume Rise 11% YoY to 69,397 Units in June 2024

Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas (more explicitly) and explain some semiconductor jargon. This is a meta piece of content.

  • First and foremost, I’ll start with performance. SMH returned 14% this quarter, among the best quarters in history for the semiconductor universe (again).
  • This quarter’s leader was AOSL, who is rumored to have won a socket at Nvidia.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/BIDU US/AMZN US/BABA US/002230 SZ/9992 HK/1024 HK

By Ying Pan

  • NTES US: <Naraka: Bladepoint> PC Celebrates Third Anniversary with Several New Updates (+)
  • BIDU US: Baidu Netdisk Adds Vertical Screen Playback Feature to Accommodate Micro-Dramas (+)
  • AMZN US/BABA US: TikTok Shop to launch in Spain (-)

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ECM: Chenqi Technology IPO – Smallest in Scale and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Chenqi Technology IPO – Smallest in Scale, Sentiment Might Not Be the Best
  • ABL Bio Capital Raise of 140 Billion Won


Chenqi Technology IPO – Smallest in Scale, Sentiment Might Not Be the Best

By Ethan Aw

  • Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise up to US$174m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
  • Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.
  • In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance and PHIP updates. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

ABL Bio Capital Raise of 140 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • On 2 July, ABL Bio (298380 KS) announced a capital raise worth 140 billion won. 
  • The capital raise involves 5.77 million new shares (10.7% of outstanding shares post capital raise) at 24,229 won per share (current price is 24,150 won).
  • The proceeds from the capital raise will be used to develop next-generation ADCs (Antibody Drug Conjugates), including bispecific antibody ADCs.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming?
  • Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Jul24)
  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Foreign Room Crosses 25%; Index Implications & Positioning for US$5bn+ Buying
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September
  • China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress
  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (May and June 2024)
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: ASM Pacific (522) Could Replace Ping An Health (1833); US$1bn Trade


BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming?

By Travis Lundy

  • Today just before the close, Reuters came out with an article saying Japan’s four major insurers and some financial institutions would offer ¥500bn of shares in a secondary offering.
  • That implies about 275-280mm shares (insurers hold ~195mm). In May, Honda announced a ¥300bn buyback with earnings, with nothing done so far. 
  • The supply/demand dynamics here are key. There are a lot of moving parts over time. Honda is cheaper than it looks but there are moving parts there too.

Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Jul24)

By Travis Lundy

  • This month (June) saw 1,673 Corporate Governance Reports filed and 5 new “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” policies filed. 
  • We created a tool show every report, provide links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.
  • We hope this took will help. It is designed to be a shelf reference. We update the tool once a month, a couple of weeks ahead of the TSE.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Foreign Room Crosses 25%; Index Implications & Positioning for US$5bn+ Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign shareholding in HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped to 54.83% and that results in foreign room crossing the ‘magical’ 25% mark.
  • The increase in foreign room could lead to passive trackers of a global index needing to buy 256m shares (US$5.3bn; 11.5x ADV) at the end of August.
  • There will definitely be positioning in the stock but there should still be upside in the stock. The HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US) line was up 4.5% overnight.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
  • We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The slow progress of privatization is related to recent high-level changes in CNPGC. Decisions on SOE deals with “strategic purpose” require careful considerations, not based on “one leader’s personal preferences”.
  • Based on public information, we cannot find convincing reason to prove that CNPGC has changed its mind.There’re rumors that China TCM’s privatization is still considered important project on the agenda.
  • China TCM’s has strong fundamentals to support valuation. If there is no announcement, the privatization process is expected to proceed as usual, and we continue to wait for the voting.  

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (May and June 2024)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that have been buying back their shares in the Korean stock market in May and June 2024.
  • On average, the share buyback announcements for the 13 companies that announced share buybacks in Korea represented 1.7% of outstanding shares.
  • Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), SK IE Technology (361610 KS), and NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS).

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: ASM Pacific (522) Could Replace Ping An Health (1833); US$1bn Trade

By Brian Freitas


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: NVIDIA’s Conundrum… and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • NVIDIA’s Conundrum…
  • Fast Retailing (9983) | Red Hot Summer
  • The Beat Ideas- Ratnaveer Precision Engineering: Fueled with Capacity Expansion
  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Gaining Momentum on New Approval and Contract Wins; Hold Shares
  • Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co.: How Are They Executing Portfolio Optimization through Divestitures? – Major Growth Drivers
  • Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc.: Expanding Pipeline with Promising Drug Candidates! – Major Growth Drivers
  • TripAdvisor Inc.: Focus on User Engagement and Monetization Strategies & Other Major Growth Drivers
  • Elanco Animal Health Incorporated: Will The Accelerated Global Rollout of Zenrelia Boost Its Top-Line? – Major Growth Drivers
  • AptarGroup Inc.: A Tale Of Recovery and Growth in North American Markets! – Major Growth Drivers


NVIDIA’s Conundrum…

By William Keating

  • NVIDIA’s data center revenues tripled YoY in CY 2023 and are on track to more than double in CY 2024
  • When Intel dominated the data centre and minted tens of billions annually, its customers benefited even more, minting hundreds of billions. 
  • If NVIDIA’s business model succeeds, its customers will succeed even more. This will make it extremely difficult for NVIDIA to remain the #1 global market cap stock. 

Fast Retailing (9983) | Red Hot Summer

By Mark Chadwick

  • Domestic Uniqlo SSS (including e-commerce) were +14.9% in June. Positive
  • Impressive +8.1% increase in customer traffic and +6.3% gain in per-customer spend
  • I have a bearish view on Fast Retailing due to rich valuations (25x EV/EBIT). However, the share price may perform well in the run up to the Q3 report.

The Beat Ideas- Ratnaveer Precision Engineering: Fueled with Capacity Expansion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • 23,000 MT Capacity expansion would double the current capacity to 49,000 MT  
  • INR 65 crores of Fund Raise would help increase the bottom line
  • Backward integration of waste converted into raw material, ensuring economies of scale

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Gaining Momentum on New Approval and Contract Wins; Hold Shares

By Tina Banerjee

  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) has signed the largest ever single CMO contract worth KRW1.46T ($1.1B) with an undisclosed U.S.-based pharmaceutical company. The contract value represents ~40% of 2023 standalone revenue.
  • Within the first half of the year, Samsung Biologics has secured order worth of KRW2.6T, compared with order win of KRW3.5T in full-year 2023.
  • Samsung Bioepis has received FDA approval for Stelara biosimilar Pyzchiva, which is expected to marketed in early 2025. So far, the FDA has approved two other biosimilars of Stelara.  

Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co.: How Are They Executing Portfolio Optimization through Divestitures? – Major Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fresenius Medical Care, in its recent financial results, highlighted its commitment to continuing transformation and improvement across its segments.
  • Initiatives to streamline organizational structures, enhance clinic utilization, and advance strategic growth areas, notably in value-based care, were emphasized.
  • The company’s focus on optimizing manufacturing and supply chain processes is a critical element in its strategy to achieve margin improvements by 2025.

Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY02/25, Daiseki reported sales of JPY16.7bn (-6.6% YoY), gross profit of JPY5.9bn (-1.1% YoY), and operating profit of JPY3.9bn (-0.7% YoY).
  • Daiseki Co.’s sales increased 7.0% YoY, while DES’s sales fell 28.4% YoY, leading to a consolidated sales decrease.
  • Consolidated operating profit for Q1 decreased by 0.7% YoY to JPY3.9bn, with OPM rising 1.4pp to 23.4%.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc.: Expanding Pipeline with Promising Drug Candidates! – Major Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals commenced the year 2024 with notable strides, particularly through the launch of WAINUA in the U.S. This product, among others in the pipeline, is expected to lead the company towards a more independent operation in drug commercialization.
  • The company’s executives displayed confidence in the potential of upcoming products like olezarsen and donidalorsen to transform their respective therapeutic areas and achieve market penetration based on strong clinical results.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

TripAdvisor Inc.: Focus on User Engagement and Monetization Strategies & Other Major Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tripadvisor’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results exceeded expectations with the company reporting revenue growth of 10% year-on-year amounting to $390 million in Q4.
  • In the same period, the adjusted EBITDA was $84 million attributed to exceptional brand performance and marketing efficiencies.
  • For the full year, the company reported a consolidated revenue growth of 20%, recording an all-time high of $1.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA experiencing a 13% growth to $334 million.

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated: Will The Accelerated Global Rollout of Zenrelia Boost Its Top-Line? – Major Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Elanco Animal Health Incorporated has demonstrated a strong start to 2024 with positive developments in multiple areas of its business, despite facing some challenges.
  • The company has achieved encouraging financial and operational results, underscored by success in its strategic initiatives aimed at enhancement and innovation.
  • Starting with the financials, Elanco surpassed its revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS guidance for Q1 2024, indicating robust underlying business performance.

AptarGroup Inc.: A Tale Of Recovery and Growth in North American Markets! – Major Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Aptar, a global leader in drug delivery systems and consumer product dispensing, has reported robust first quarter financial results for 2024.
  • The company disclosed a 5% core sales growth and a remarkable more than 30% increase in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) as compared to the previous year.
  • Notably, the Pharma segment exhibited strong performance driven by sustained demand for its proprietary drug delivery systems, marking high single-digit core sales growth.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Macro: Non-Consensus Forecast: No Fed Rate Cut This Year and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Non-Consensus Forecast: No Fed Rate Cut This Year
  • Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy
  • QE With Chinese Characteristics: What It Will Look Like.
  • China Economics: Expect Few Changes in Third Plenum
  • Regional Economics: In A Stormier World, Can Asia’s Ship Remain Steady?
  • US: Receding Inflation Has Put 3 Rate Cuts Back in Play for 2024
  • Great Game – Biden in Free-Fall and a French Ménage À Trois
  • Euro area Unemployment Rate 6.4% (consensus 6.4) in May-24
  • EA: ECB Not Yet Stuck By Service Prices


Non-Consensus Forecast: No Fed Rate Cut This Year

By Alex Ng

  • We are against the majority opinion that Fed will cut rate in September meeting. Also majority forecast there will be 1-2 rate cuts this year but we forecast none.
  • CORE PCE Price Index has been treading above 2% target, though it is on a decreasing trend two streaks on a roll and since Jan 2023.
  • We believe instead of targeting at the static CORE PCE Index for one data point, the Fed will consider a dynamic series of data points, known as cumulative inflation targeting.

Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy

By Alex Ng

  • In a recent forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is confident that Chinese economy was stagnant simply because of COVID. Now that COVID has gone, Chinese economy will eventually heal itself.
  • We believe rather Chinese economy will still be bumpy after COVID, with three major arrows against Chinese Economy, namely property sector slump, local government debt, and weak private sector.
  • Instead of the “self recovery” view of the economy proposed by Li, we believe government should more actively roll out fiscal and monetary stimulus.

QE With Chinese Characteristics: What It Will Look Like.

By David Mudd

  • PBOC announced that it will borrow and trade treasury bonds from primary markets. 
  • The central bank will use Open Market Operations to not only control and steepen the yield curve, but also improve market liquidity.
  • Last week the 50-year bond dropped below the 2.5% yield which was the minimal threshold the PBOC indicated before defense.

China Economics: Expect Few Changes in Third Plenum

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • China’s latest consumer data will do little to convince the leadership to significantly step stimulus in the upcoming Third Plenum as support for advanced sectors remains key.
  • Beijing’s refraining from significant stimulus is deemed a feature, rather than a bug. Policymakers do not yet view the trade-offs as unmanageable. 
  • While some incremental step-up in policy support may be on the cards, do not expect Beijing to rock the boat beyond that. 

Regional Economics: In A Stormier World, Can Asia’s Ship Remain Steady?

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • While global economic conditions have been “so far so good”, there are signs of trouble that, while manageable for now, could darken the outlook if they spiral out of control. 
  • On the upside, conditions in major markets such as the US and China are stabilizing, while global capital spending and technology cycles should be favourable for Asia. 
  • While the risks are growing, resilient domestic demand and appropriate macroeconomic management should shield Asian markets from the worst of the downsides. 

US: Receding Inflation Has Put 3 Rate Cuts Back in Play for 2024

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • After a 0.99%MoM annualised rise in May’24, core PCE inflation eased to 2.57%YoY — lower than the 2.6%YoY end-CY24 projection that the FOMC believed was compatible with 3 rate cuts. 
  • While the FOMC initially signalled QT in Jun’22, base money increased each month during Jul’23-Feb’24, contributing to higher inflation. Contracting base money since Mar’24 was key to moderating MoM inflation.
  • Core PCE will likely rise 2%QoQ (annualised) in Q2CY24, and 2.5%YoY in Jun’24. The release of those numbers six days before FOMC decision (31/7/24) will likely trigger Jul’24 rate cut. 

Great Game – Biden in Free-Fall and a French Ménage À Trois

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • Hello and welcome to this week’s Great Game.
  • The First Round of the French Legislative Election was held on Sunday and the initial results suggested a clear win for Marine Le Pen’s far-right coalition around her National Rally party
  • Biden is starting to drop rapidly in polls after the US presidential debate.

Euro area Unemployment Rate 6.4% (consensus 6.4) in May-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Euro area unemployment rate stayed at 6.4% in May 2024, indicating a stable labour market as it is below long-run and one-year averages.
  • Economic indicators showed moderate GDP and employment growth, reflecting a cautious sentiment in the market.
  • Services sector is expanding while the manufacturing sector is contracting, suggesting sector-specific challenges and potential inflationary pressures.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EA: ECB Not Yet Stuck By Service Prices

By Phil Rush

  • EA inflation matched consensus expectations of 2.5% y-o-y in June despite German softness as a Benelux surge offset it, with the outcome 6bps above our forecast.
  • Services inflation was responsible for the upside again, as it was worryingly stuck at 4.1%, suggesting there has been no underlying progress in the past several months.
  • The stability of headline outcomes to past expectations reassures the ECB, keeping September alive for another cut, assuming its peers deliver on their bias to start soon.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars