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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Cathay Pacific (293 HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:HKD):
  • Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity.
  • Vanguard (5347.TT): The Utilization to Improve over 70% in 3Q24.
  • China Consumption Weekly (8 Jul 2024): BYD, Seres, Tesla, Microsoft, XHS, Mixue
  • Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality
  • Card Factory (CARD) – Sunday, Apr 7, 2024


Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:HKD):

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Operations are on track with earlier guidance given during FY23 results, loads and yields are healthy, with UK and North American performing better than expected  
  • Will buyback and cancel remaining 97.7m preference shares for a sum of HKD10b by end of July 2024. Shareholder dilution has been avoided  
  • Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+24% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) 

Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity.

By Patrick Liao

  • We are surprised that Silergy Corp (6415 TT) is using Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) to trial-run products.
  • The outlook for 2024 remains unchanged at over 20% YoY, and we still see a path to recovery ahead.
  • We consider the recent drop from NTD$526 on June 14th to NTD$429 on July 5th as an opportunity to consider entering the stock.

Vanguard (5347.TT): The Utilization to Improve over 70% in 3Q24.

By Patrick Liao


China Consumption Weekly (8 Jul 2024): BYD, Seres, Tesla, Microsoft, XHS, Mixue

By Ming Lu

  • BYD’s sales volume increased by 35% YoY in June and by 39% YoY in 2Q24.
  • Tesla’s Model Y is on the state-owned corporation procurement catalogs.
  • Microsoft plans to close its franchised store chain in China due to the weak demand for Surface.

Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality

By Sameer Taneja


Card Factory (CARD) – Sunday, Apr 7, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • CARD is a UK microcap retailer with impressive qualities despite appearing unattractive at first glance
  • The company has shown consistent growth and gains market share each year in a stagnant market
  • With a strong balance sheet, high return on capital employed, and efficient CEO, CARD presents a compelling investment opportunity at a low valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Macro: Fed Sees Economy Cooling as Leading Indicators Also Suggest Softer Looming Trend and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Fed Sees Economy Cooling as Leading Indicators Also Suggest Softer Looming Trend
  • Tops Are Processes
  • Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades
  • How Politics Is Intruding on Fed Policy
  • Japan: Is the Balance Sheet Recession Over?
  • Crop Prices Plunge as Favorable US Weather Accelerates Planting, Growth, & Harvesting


Fed Sees Economy Cooling as Leading Indicators Also Suggest Softer Looming Trend

By Said Desaque

  • Consumer confidence measures have been generally weaker in H1, thereby suggesting a major improvement in underlying spending trends is unlikely in the near-term. 
  • House price inflation has moderated due to lower demand, while banks have not loosened lending standards across all categories of mortgage loans. 
  • Recently released minutes of the latest FOMC meeting indicate that members expect the economy and inflation to cool, but they are in no hurry to lower the federal funds rate.

Tops Are Processes

By Cam Hui

  • Numerous warnings about a toppy market have been appearing , but they tend to be “this will not end well” warnings with no obvious bearish trigger.
  • Long-Term risks to equity prices are rising, but short-term price momentum is strong.
  • We believe that your decision to be bullish or bearish will depend on your time horizon.

Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades

By Sameer Taneja


How Politics Is Intruding on Fed Policy

By Cam Hui

  • Recent economic data is signaling a trend of growth deceleration, which raises the odds of a September rate cut.
  • Political considerations may derail a September easing decision as Powell may not achieve a unanimous vote, which would open the Fed to charges of interference in the electoral process.
  • The Supreme Court’s recent repudiation of the Chevron decision also opens the door to constraining future Fed policy to stabilize the financial system in the event of a crisis.

Japan: Is the Balance Sheet Recession Over?

By Alex Ng

  • Japan has suffered from a balance sheet recession, triggered by a sharp decline in asset value, since the 1990s.
  • As the Nikkei treads new height, it raises the question of whther the balance sheet recession is over.
  • Though some of the structural challenges remain, the balance sheet recession has improved in recent years.

Crop Prices Plunge as Favorable US Weather Accelerates Planting, Growth, & Harvesting

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Corn and Wheat planted acreage are down 3% and 5% YoY, respectively. Meanwhile, Soybean total planted area is up by 5% YoY compared to 2023.
  • Planted acreage and ending stocks drove prices down for wheat and corn. Soybeans bucked the trend as reported acreage fell short of WASDE estimates by 400k acres.
  • A positive picture for 2024 planting season is visible, with the early benefits of warm temperatures and improved moisture levels setting the stage for strong yields.

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Daily Brief Industrials: JD Logistics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
  • However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: ASM Pacific Technology, Shift Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way
  • Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • The reference period for the September 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes.
  • Our current estimates suggest one-way flows due to index changes and capping could be around US$733mn but that could change by early September 2024.

Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates

By Sanghyun Park

  • Notably, local hedge funds receive significant allocation, nearly 10%, unusual for KOSPI IPOs this size, differing from HD Hyundai Marine Solution.
  • KOSPI 200’s initial float rate is 14%, rising to 58% in six months. MSCI starts at 8%, reaching 12% in six months and 25% in a year.
  • Differences from HD Hyundai Marine Solution include high short-term strategies among institutions. Unlike before, local pension funds receive substantial allocation, potentially affecting stock price post-listing.

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Daily Brief Industrials: JD Logistics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
  • However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong
  • China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) – MNCs’ Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi’s Trouble


Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong

By Tina Banerjee

  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU) released positive update from its CUV151 study, which was evaluating the DNA-repair capacity of afamelanotide on skin of healthy volunteers exposed to UV radiation.
  • Riding on high trajectory of lead therapy, Scenesse, thanks to the prescriber network growth, treatment demand, and number of prescriptions, Clinuvel has been consistently reporting profitable revenue growth.
  • Greater patient outreach to be facilitated by more specialty centers able to administer Scenesse in the U.S., expanding geographic footprint, and future label expansions are future growth engines.

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) – MNCs’ Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi’s Trouble

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs’ next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.
  • Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.
  • Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don’t think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.

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Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee


Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee

By Arun George


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Daily Brief Consumer: L’Occitane, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Berli Jucker, Honda Motor and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery
  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C’s Tourism Factor
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys

By David Blennerhassett


Asian Dividend Gems: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery

By Douglas Kim

  • Chow Tai Fook Jewellery’s shares are down 28.2% YTD, sharply underperforming the Hang Seng Index which is up 6% in the same period. We believe this divergence is excessive. 
  • Chow Tai Fook’s dividend yield averaged 4.8% from FY20 to FY24. Its annual dividend payout averaged 107% in the same period.
  • Chai Tai Fook is currently trading at attractive valuations. It is trading at P/E of 10.1x, EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, and P/B of 2.9x based on FY25 consensus earnings estimates. 

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C’s Tourism Factor

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Berli Jucker’s modern trade supply chain under Big C continues to benefit from the tourism recovery, with 25 dedicated tourism stores and another 35 secondary tourism stores. 
  • Tourism stores carry a slightly different mix of SKUs versus regular stores, which generate higher margins. Big C continues to expand its store network and margins are moving upwards.
  • Berli Jucker provides direct exposure to Big C but its other divisions including packaging and consumer supply chain provide exposure to both Thailand and Vietnam. Valuations are attractive versus history.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

By David Blennerhassett

  • It’s just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ), which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO. 
  • A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for Honda Motor (7267 JP). Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.
  • Loo Choon Yong, Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)‘s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,

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Daily Brief Australia: Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong


Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong

By Tina Banerjee

  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU) released positive update from its CUV151 study, which was evaluating the DNA-repair capacity of afamelanotide on skin of healthy volunteers exposed to UV radiation.
  • Riding on high trajectory of lead therapy, Scenesse, thanks to the prescriber network growth, treatment demand, and number of prescriptions, Clinuvel has been consistently reporting profitable revenue growth.
  • Greater patient outreach to be facilitated by more specialty centers able to administer Scenesse in the U.S., expanding geographic footprint, and future label expansions are future growth engines.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Berli Jucker and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C’s Tourism Factor


Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C’s Tourism Factor

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Berli Jucker’s modern trade supply chain under Big C continues to benefit from the tourism recovery, with 25 dedicated tourism stores and another 35 secondary tourism stores. 
  • Tourism stores carry a slightly different mix of SKUs versus regular stores, which generate higher margins. Big C continues to expand its store network and margins are moving upwards.
  • Berli Jucker provides direct exposure to Big C but its other divisions including packaging and consumer supply chain provide exposure to both Thailand and Vietnam. Valuations are attractive versus history.

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