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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 19
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd., Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Beijing Chunlizhengda Medical Instruments, SD Biosensor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Lansen Pharma (503 HK): The Chairman Makes An Offer
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc.: Can The Latest Collaboration With Roche Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • Chunlizhengda Medical Instruments (1858.HK/688236.CH) – 2023 Full-Year Results May Be Disappointing
  • SD Biosensor (137310 KS): No Change of Fate Is Seen in Near-Term; Visibility to Improve in 2024 Only

Lansen Pharma (503 HK): The Chairman Makes An Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Specialty prescription drug manufacturer Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK) has been a perennial takeover target. And now we have an Offer.
  • Wu Zhen Tao, NED and Chairman of Lansen, has made an Offer for shares not indirectly held, of HK$1.80/share, by way of a Scheme, a 26.76% premium to last close.   
  • This looks done. Get involved if small-cap illiquid arbs are your thing. 

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc.: Can The Latest Collaboration With Roche Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. delivered a disappointing set of results as it was unable to meet the revenue earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • In Q2, the overall net product revenues increased 43% year over year across all products.
  • The TTR brand generated $224 million in global net product revenues for ONPATTRO and AMVUTTRA, a 46% increase from the second quarter of 2022 and a 9% rise from the first quarter.

Chunlizhengda Medical Instruments (1858.HK/688236.CH) – 2023 Full-Year Results May Be Disappointing

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Beijing Chunlizhengda Medical Instruments didn’t perform well in 23H1. Obviously, the Company did not anticipate sufficiently the negative impact of centralized procurement on performance. Comparatively, AK Medical’s situation is better.
  • The anti-corruption campaign has led to a marked drop in hospital outpatient visits and surgeries. Therefore, Chunlizhengda’s Q3 performance may not be optimistic, resulting in a lower-than-expected 2023 full-year performance.
  • We think both revenue and net profit of Chunlizhengda would have negative YoY growth in 2023. The Company has fallen behind its competitor in R&D capabilities and high-end product lines. 

SD Biosensor (137310 KS): No Change of Fate Is Seen in Near-Term; Visibility to Improve in 2024 Only

By Tina Banerjee

  • SD Biosensor (137310 KS) is reporting significant decline in revenue due to the fading demand of COVID-19 tests. 2Q23 revenue declined 80% YoY and 11% QoQ to KRW162.6B.
  • SD Biosensor reported operating loss of KRW97.8B and KRW76.4B in 1Q23 and 2Q23, respectively, leading to 1H23 operating loss of KRW174.2B, compared with an operating profit of KRW348B in 1H22.
  • SD Biosensor is on track to launch next-generation ultra-small continuous blood glucose meter (CGMS) in Korea in 2024. Thus far, Korea has approved four CGMS, including one locally-developed.

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Sep 18
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Northbound Flows (Sep 15th): Six Weeks of Outflows and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Northbound Flows (Sep 15th): Six Weeks of Outflows
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: ICBC, Xiaomi, Petrochina, CCB, Li Auto, Baba, Aac Tech
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 15th): Postal Savings, Sinopec Corp, Shanghai Fudan, Sinopec Oilfield
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 15th): ICBC, Innovent Biologics, CCB, Sunac China

Northbound Flows (Sep 15th): Six Weeks of Outflows

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 15th.
  • We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,170.6 million, led by industrials, information technology, and offset by health care, consumer discretionary, utilities.
  • We highlight flows for Zhongji Innolight, CATL, Moutai, Wuliangye, Longi Green, Boe Technology, China Tourism, China Petroleum And Chemical.

HK Short Interest Weekly: ICBC, Xiaomi, Petrochina, CCB, Li Auto, Baba, Aac Tech

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 8th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in ICBC, Xiaomi, Petrochina, CCB, Li Auto, Baba, Aac Tech.

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 15th): Postal Savings, Sinopec Corp, Shanghai Fudan, Sinopec Oilfield

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 116.7% as of Sep 15th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 2.3ppt week on week, led by energy, real estate, industrials and offset by communication services, information technology.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Postal Savings, Sinopec Corp, Shanghai Fudan, Sinopec Oilfield, Remegen Co Ltd.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 15th): ICBC, Innovent Biologics, CCB, Sunac China

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 15th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for ICBC, Innovent Biologics, CCB, Sunac China.

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Sep 18
0

Daily Brief ECM: TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

By Daniel Hellberg

  • So far in 2023 TS Lines has sold off close to one quarter of its shipping capacity
  • In the company’s core market, Intra-Asia, it appears rates have bottomed out here in Q323
  • We also review Q2 financial results from TS Lines’ main comp, Wan Hai Lines (WHL)

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Sep 18
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Turnaround in China Healthcare Anti-Corruption: Impact on Company’s 2023 Results & Upcoming New Reforms and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Turnaround in China Healthcare Anti-Corruption: Impact on Company’s 2023 Results & Upcoming New Reforms
  • China TMT Update-1810.HK/AAPL/981.HK/HK700/HK1024/DOYU/BILI/IQ/BABA/VIPS/PDD/3690.HK/YSG/JD-Mate 60
  • China TMT Update-AAPL/JD/BEKE-Pre-Registrations for IPhone 15 Slightly Lower than IPhone 14

Turnaround in China Healthcare Anti-Corruption: Impact on Company’s 2023 Results & Upcoming New Reforms

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The People’s Daily/National Health Commission made “mild” statements about anti-corruption, bringing investors “hope”. However, it depends on the attitude of Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, who is the decision maker. 
  • We break down some industry data to help investors better understand the impact of anti-corruption campaign on China healthcare. It seems inevitable that companies’ Q3 performance would be affected.
  • Looking ahead, companies’ performance reversal may not be as fast as expected.The anti-corruption campaign could accelerate the next stage of reform. Investors need to be prepared for upcoming new changes.  

China TMT Update-1810.HK/AAPL/981.HK/HK700/HK1024/DOYU/BILI/IQ/BABA/VIPS/PDD/3690.HK/YSG/JD-Mate 60

By Shawn Yang

  • 1810.HK/AAPL/981.HK: Local media reports that the Mate 60 series is planned to ship 20mn units (-/-/+)
  • HK700/HK1024/DOYU/BILI/IQ: Tencent announced its live broadcast rights holder for 2023 Hangzhou Asian Games. (+)/(-)/(-)/(-)/(-)
  • BABA/VIPS / PDD/ 3690.HK/ YSG/JD: Social retail consumption improved month-on-month (+/+/+/+/+/-)

China TMT Update-AAPL/JD/BEKE-Pre-Registrations for IPhone 15 Slightly Lower than IPhone 14

By Shawn Yang

  • Real Estate Industry Update: Property sales remain lukewarm in August, price declined marginally(/)
  • Real Estate Industry Update: Local media survey indicate China home purchase willingness increased in September post policy stimulus(+)
  • AAPL/JD: JD pre-registrations for iPhone 15 slightly lower than iPhone 14, and ASP largely unchanged (-)

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Sep 18
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure

Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Sep 18
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Itochu Buying Descente (8114) – ANTA Selldown Offset Or Creeping Takeover? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Itochu Buying Descente (8114) – ANTA Selldown Offset Or Creeping Takeover?
  • Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (15-Sep):  Utilities, Insurance, China Mobile, BYD
  • Wharf Holdings (4 HK): Improved Liquidity & Passive Buying
  • SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows
  • Merger Arb Mondays (18 Sep) – Eoflow, Costa, Liontown, Pact, T&K Toka, IMAX, Poly Culture
  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in December
  • Costa Mulls Paine Schwartz’s Lower Bid
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)
  • EQD | VIX Index WEEKLY Suggests Upcoming Increase in Volatility

Itochu Buying Descente (8114) – ANTA Selldown Offset Or Creeping Takeover?

By Travis Lundy

  • Four years after Itochu got to 40.0% of votes in Descente (8114) in a hostile Tender Offer, Descente partner ANTA, which supported Itochu at the time started selling its stake.
  • A few months later, Itochu started buying shares of Descente in the market. As of 7 Sep, Itochu had bought Descente shares 81 days straight (9.7% of ADV).
  • This begs the question: Is Itochu ensuring they maintain voting control as ANTA sells? Or are they buying to lift their stake prior to another bid?

Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (15-Sep):  Utilities, Insurance, China Mobile, BYD

By Travis Lundy

  • The Brand-Spanking New (6 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
  • We used to do it and decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 41 Trade Recommendations.
  • The last five weeks (since the instantiation of the new Monitor and Portfolio 6 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%.

Wharf Holdings (4 HK): Improved Liquidity & Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • Improved liquidity and a higher stock price could see passive trackers buying Wharf Holdings (4 HK) within the next couple of months.
  • Wharf Holdings (4 HK) trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and price to book value.
  • Wharf Holdings (4 HK) has already started to move higher and there could be a bigger move in the stock over the next month.

SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign room in SK Telecom (017670 KS) increased above 15% in July and is currently just above 16%. Foreign investors have resumed buying again and foreign room is moving lower.
  • Foreign room staying above 15% for another month could result in passive buying at the end of November. SK Telecom (017670 KS) has outperformed peers over the last few weeks.
  • Foreign buying over the next month could lead to foreign room dropping below 15% in which case there will be no passive inflows. But the stock could be higher.

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Sep) – Eoflow, Costa, Liontown, Pact, T&K Toka, IMAX, Poly Culture

By Arun George

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

Costa Mulls Paine Schwartz’s Lower Bid

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 4 July, Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP) made an A$3.50/share NBIO for Costa Group (CGC AU) by way of a Scheme.  PSP held 14.84% at the time.
  • The due diligence period came and went, or so it appeared, but Costa said it remained ongoing.  Rumours circulated that PSP had gone cold. 1H23 results were also delayed. 
  • Costa has now announced this morning that PSP has returned with a $3.20/share Offer – best and final – reduced for any permitted dividend of up to A$0.04, if declared. 

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX WEEKLY did rise last week and is approaching OVERBOUGHT territory based on the current short-term trend pattern (Q3 resistance is at 346).
  • The current pattern is bearish, but if the market gains momentum and rallies for 2 more weeks, it could reach 357 during the 3rd week up (not earlier).
  • The alternative scenario, a better fit for this bearish pattern, is that the index starts to pull back this week, or remains weak this week and falls the next.

EQD | VIX Index WEEKLY Suggests Upcoming Increase in Volatility

By Nico Rosti

  • The VIX INDEX is currently OVERSOLD from a time perspective, but not yet from a price perspective: if it falls <13, there is a high probability it will reverse up.
  • A spike in the VIX will correspond to a drawdown in equities, globally. The MRM model indicates a 1-2 weeks duration for the event, price targets between 16 and 18.
  • After the spike, the VIX could start to fall again, so this upcoming volatility spike should be a brief, short-lived event.

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Sep 18
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Intel’s Data Centre Meltdown and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel’s Data Centre Meltdown
  • AviChina Industry (2357 HK): This Is Just the Beginning
  • LICHF: On Track for a Record FY24 PAT
  • GHY’s Guo Jingyu raises stake as group eyes turnaround, profitability

Intel’s Data Centre Meltdown

By William Keating

  • Year to date, Intel’s data center revenues are down 28% YoY. 
  • By comparison, AMD’s year-to-date revenues are down just 6% YoY
  • Why is AMD performing so much better than Intel in the data center and will their market share growth continue?

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): This Is Just the Beginning

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK) is expected to see sustained profit upturn in 2H23 following a 26.8% growth in 1H23. Continued geopolitical turmoil will still benefit it.  
  • All its listed A-share subsidiaries recorded a pick-up in earnings momentum in 2Q23, and this indicates solid underlying demand as well as the impact of product developments.
  • Avicopter PLC (600038 CH) has seen volume and price recovery after product portfolio refinement while new products have stimulated the ancillary system and related business.

LICHF: On Track for a Record FY24 PAT

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) posted a strong Q1FY24, despite an adverse one-off reversible impact. Q1FY24 PAT came in at INR 1319cr vs INR 1191cr QoQ and INR 927cr YoY.  
  • With the interest rates stabilizing, housing demand has been improving. LICHF’s asset quality has been also improving, adjusted for one-off technical glitch related deterioration.  
  • At around 6x P/E based on our projected FY24E PAT, LICHF is available quite cheap and has potential to more than double from the current levels. 

GHY’s Guo Jingyu raises stake as group eyes turnaround, profitability

By Geoff Howie

  • INSTITUTIONS were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to Sep 14, with S$18.4 million of net institutional inflow, while 24 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$25.9 million. led the share buyback consideration tally, buying back 1.2 million shares at an average price of S$12.58 per share, followed by which bought back 5.36 million shares at an average price of S$1.13 per share.
  • The five trading sessions saw 60 changes to director interests and substantial shareholdings filed for close to 30 primary-listed stocks.

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Sep 18
0

Daily Brief Macro: No Signs of Major Dollar Deleveraging and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • No Signs of Major Dollar Deleveraging, but Fed Policy Conduct and Inflation Backdrop Warrant Caution
  • How the USD Could Sink the S&P 500
  • A Battle Royale for Control of the Tape
  • US Economy Watch: The Recession That Never Came… Or?
  • Positioning Watch: Energy is not (yet) a consensus
  • The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

No Signs of Major Dollar Deleveraging, but Fed Policy Conduct and Inflation Backdrop Warrant Caution

By Said Desaque

  • Foreign banks’ reliance on commercial paper in the US has contributed to a much bigger compression in their net interest margins, contributing to fears that dollar deleveraging could be imminent.
  • US current account deficits produced large dollar outflows that facilitated offshore funding centres. The end of secular disinflation and arrival of structurally higher interest rates could create gradual dollar deleveraging.
  • Fed policy conduct is crucial to gradual deleveraging , particularly quantitative tightening’s impact on corporate bond yields. Dollar exchange rate movements in 2023 are inconsistent with major dollar deleveraging.

How the USD Could Sink the S&P 500

By Cam Hui

  • The USD has historically been inversely correlated with U.S. equity prices.
  • A number of risks are appearing to put upward pressure on the USD, namely a differential in fiscal dominance between the U.S. and other economies, and upward pressure on inflation.
  • The possible reversal of the BoJ’s easy monetary policy, while Yen bullish and Dollar bearish, is bearish for global risk appetite.

A Battle Royale for Control of the Tape

By Cam Hui

  • Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 are forming wedge formations while testing their 50 dma supports with directional implications on breakouts or breakdowns.
  • We believe the odds favours the bears and the S&P 500 has unfinished business to the downside.
  • The index can find support at its August lows at about 4350. Strong secondary support can be found at roughly 4200, which is about the site of the 200 dma.

US Economy Watch: The Recession That Never Came… Or?

By Andreas Steno

  • We see near-term upside risk to inflation. The labor market is softening in tandem with growth in real wages (rising LCI)
  • Consumer sentiment is shifting and spending is showing weakening tendencies. A 2024 services payrolls recession has to be the base-case still.
  • We remain invested in sectors with a high sales relative to employees. The current tightening cycle would be the most expeditious in history not to cause a recession, if the hopes of a soft- / no landing hold true.

Positioning Watch: Energy is not (yet) a consensus

By Andreas Steno

  • Over the past week we received the monthly Fund Manager survey suggesting that UK and Europe are now (clearly) underweight relative to benchmark allocations, while also China is essentially un-investable according to the survey.
  • Interestingly, the survey also reveals that managers are still not net/net long Energy relative to benchmarks, which is an interesting observation given the performance in that sector in recent months.
  • With energy outperforming indices, higher rates typically follow as well.

The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

By Jeroen Blokland

  • The awkward and conflicting statement of the ECB accompanying the tenth and likely final rate increase.
  • Chinese credit growth remains tepid at best, signaling downside risks for equities and the Euro.
  • Three ugly UK recession charts this week will put additional pressure on the British Pound. And our Fear & Frenzy is agonizingly close to Frenzy territory, triggering a sell signal.

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Sep 18
0

Daily Brief Thailand: I-TAIL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in December

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

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Sep 18
0

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Telecom, Eoflow , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows
  • Merger Arb Mondays (18 Sep) – Eoflow, Costa, Liontown, Pact, T&K Toka, IMAX, Poly Culture
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign room in SK Telecom (017670 KS) increased above 15% in July and is currently just above 16%. Foreign investors have resumed buying again and foreign room is moving lower.
  • Foreign room staying above 15% for another month could result in passive buying at the end of November. SK Telecom (017670 KS) has outperformed peers over the last few weeks.
  • Foreign buying over the next month could lead to foreign room dropping below 15% in which case there will be no passive inflows. But the stock could be higher.

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Sep) – Eoflow, Costa, Liontown, Pact, T&K Toka, IMAX, Poly Culture

By Arun George

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX WEEKLY did rise last week and is approaching OVERBOUGHT territory based on the current short-term trend pattern (Q3 resistance is at 346).
  • The current pattern is bearish, but if the market gains momentum and rallies for 2 more weeks, it could reach 357 during the 3rd week up (not earlier).
  • The alternative scenario, a better fit for this bearish pattern, is that the index starts to pull back this week, or remains weak this week and falls the next.

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