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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc…
  • Trump 2.0: Understanding the Impact on India and China’s Trade
  • Ohayo Japan | Tesla Shares Accelerate
  • Japan Morning Connection: JP Set for a More Upbeat Start After Tech Rebound
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on REX American Resources Corp. (REX)
  • Mat-Chem Notes – Growth Remains Elusive as Geopolitics of Battery Metals Heats Up
  • Biopharma Week in Review – November 18, 2024
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – November 18, 2024
  • A Primer on Digital Advertising – [Making Markets, EP.49]


SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc…

By William Keating

  • The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.
  • China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China” 
  • The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don’t know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won’t be a recovery.

Trump 2.0: Understanding the Impact on India and China’s Trade

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The return of Donald Trump to the global trade landscape brings uncertainty and potential disruption, particularly for countries like China with high trade exposure to the US
  • India, on the other hand, appears to be in a more insulated position, with lower trade dependence and stable fundamentals
  • Overall, the trade dynamics between the US, China, and India will continue to evolve, shaping the future of the global economy.

Ohayo Japan | Tesla Shares Accelerate

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks ended mixed as tech shares led a modest rebound, with Tesla surging over 5% following reports that Trump’s incoming administration may ease self-driving vehicle regulations.
  • Investors are now focused on Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report Wednesday as a key test for AI-related stocks, which have been crucial drivers of market gains over the past year.
  • The Japan Tourism Agency is proposing to eliminate the ¥500,000 daily cap on tax-free purchases for foreign tourists in its fiscal 2025 tax reforms

Japan Morning Connection: JP Set for a More Upbeat Start After Tech Rebound

By Andrew Jackson

  • Nidec may be back in focus on a lifeline for SMCI and heating issues for NVDA.
  • Tesla and power-semis are both up on the self-driving U-turn.
  • No bid for JP SPE’s recently, although Lasertec may still have further to fall.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on REX American Resources Corp. (REX)

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down 4.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.1%), the cex (down 4.0%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.7%).
  • Energy Technology (13.5% of the index) was down 1.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.3% of the index) was down 3.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.4%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.6% of index) was down 5.5%.
  • Top 10 Performers: GRB, BE, WKHS, MULN, LILM, HLGN, FGPHF, AMPS, NEOV, NOVA

Mat-Chem Notes – Growth Remains Elusive as Geopolitics of Battery Metals Heats Up

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR-CMI last week. After the momentous US election, the stock market has rallied on expectations of lower regulations, lower taxes, and a more confrontational approach to China and other geopolitical adversaries.
  • Last week saw some profit taking across the market, with the Russell 2000, which we view as a better proxy for the broader market, declining 4%, with the large- cap, tech-heavy S&P 500 posting a 2.1% decline.
  • Our WTR-CMI Index of 30 specialty chemicals and materials companies fared similarly, losing 2.2% of its value. 

Biopharma Week in Review – November 18, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.
  • Last week, Trump named RFK Jr. to lead the HHS, placing an overhang on XBI and vaccine makers PFE, GSK, MRNA, MRK, and SNY. BNTX and MRK made moves in the PD- 1/VEGF space.
  • ABBV’s costly neuro play failed, removing the main threat to BMY’s Cobenfy. AMGN was rattled by bone loss data for its obesity drug. 

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – November 18, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • Furniture and furnishing stocks retrenched last week, in line with the broader market.
  • The Water Tower Research Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 3.1%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index dipped 3.0%, the Home Goods Retailers Index fell 1.0%, while the Mass Retailers Index was down 1.3%.
  • The S&P 500 and DJ30 were both down 2.2% during the week, while the R2K declined 5.5%. 

A Primer on Digital Advertising – [Making Markets, EP.49]

By Web3 Breakdowns

  • Interview with digital advertising expert Eric Suffert discussing Apple’s app tracking transparency and its impact on digital advertising
  • Exploring the historical paradigms of data flow in digital advertising before and after the implementation of ATT
  • Examining the hub and spoke model and the mutual benefits for advertisers and platforms like Facebook in the previous paradigm

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Macro: Global Commodities: European Natural Gas: Weather and supply-side risks tighten their grip on price and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Commodities: European Natural Gas: Weather and supply-side risks tighten their grip on price
  • US Politics: “Liquid Gold”
  • Macro Regime Watch: An In-Depth Look at Regime Trends Across Major Markets
  • Steno Signals #126 – Where did all the liquidity go?
  • Portfolio Watch: Stay Composed—The Trump Trade Is Still ON
  • Global FX: Are trade risks already priced into currencies?
  • Copper Tracker Nov 18th, 2024: Export Tax Rebate Cancellation on Copper Throws Market in A Tizzy
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Grab’s High-Value Boost, Sea’s Shopee in Profit, and Keepers
  • OPEC Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Forecast Again; EIA and IEA Warn of Oil Oversupply in 2025
  • US Rig Count Falls After Remaining Steady for Three Consecutive Weeks


Global Commodities: European Natural Gas: Weather and supply-side risks tighten their grip on price

By At Any Rate

  • European natural gas market facing uncertainty due to potential end of Russian gas flows through Ukraine
  • North American LNG supply delays causing imbalance in global market
  • Price relationship between summer 2025 and winter 2526 dependent on weather, supply sources, and storage refill mandates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


US Politics: “Liquid Gold”

By Alastair Newton

  • Donald Trump is committed to reducing energy prices by 50% within a year.
  • However, uncontrollable factors may hinder this goal.
  • As such, he may only achieve a modest success, if any.

Macro Regime Watch: An In-Depth Look at Regime Trends Across Major Markets

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome back to Macro Regime Watch, where we dive into our nowcasting models to analyze Growth, Inflation, and Liquidity trends.
  • Over recent months, we’ve dedicated substantial time to upgrading our models and refining the data we use.
  • But the core question remains: how do we interpret the complexities of the macro environment, and how can these insights inform financial market strategies?

Steno Signals #126 – Where did all the liquidity go?

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Sunday, everyone! If you can’t show it in a meme, then it’s not true.
  • That’s my modus operandi in the research business, and I stumbled upon this tremendous meme of the business cycle and how JPoww and his ilk respond to it.
  • This has been the Fed’s operating model for a while: exaggerating the business cycle in both directions.

Portfolio Watch: Stay Composed—The Trump Trade Is Still ON

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Friday and welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch.
  • Many have been puzzled by the weakness in US markets towards the end of the week, with explanations largely pointing to an exhaustion of the Trump trade.
  • This trade had been roaring across USD, USD bond yields, USD equities, and Crypto.

Global FX: Are trade risks already priced into currencies?

By At Any Rate

  • Market fluctuations in CNY and Euro currencies, potential impact of PBOC reaction function and ECB policies
  • Possibility of increased pessimism in Europe not fully priced in, with potential for further downside in Euro
  • Recommendations for underweight positions on Euro compared to USD, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with potential for continued market movement

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Copper Tracker Nov 18th, 2024: Export Tax Rebate Cancellation on Copper Throws Market in A Tizzy

By Sameer Taneja

  • The Ministry of Finance has decided to end the 13% export tax rebate on copper effective December 1st, 2024. Copper semi-producers rely on this rebate to remain profitable. 
  • Copper semi-producers might rush to sell their inventory by 1st December when changes take effect, which may affect prices and distort differentials on the SHFE-LME. 
  • As long-term bulls, we like Southern Copper (SCCO US); under 100 USD/share, it is worth exploring. We also believe a long LME short SHFE trade in the short-term could work.  

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Grab’s High-Value Boost, Sea’s Shopee in Profit, and Keepers

By Angus Mackintosh


OPEC Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Forecast Again; EIA and IEA Warn of Oil Oversupply in 2025

By Suhas Reddy

  • OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast by 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly downgrade, while the EIA and IEA raised their forecasts by 7.6% and 7%, respectively.
  • Although the EIA and IEA raised 2024 demand projections, they lowered 2025 estimates. They anticipate an oversupplied oil market in 2025, with supply growth expected to outpace demand.
  • The EIA raised Q4 2024 oil price forecasts on geopolitical tensions and inventory withdrawals but cut post-Q2 2025 estimates due to expectations of rising inventories from higher output.

US Rig Count Falls After Remaining Steady for Three Consecutive Weeks

By Suhas Reddy

  • The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending on 15/Nov, after remaining steady for three weeks in a row.
  • For the week ending 08/Nov, US oil production inched down to 13.4m bpd after remaining at 13.5m bpd for four consecutive weeks.
  • US energy producers added two rigs in New Mexico and one in Pennsylvania while cutting two rigs in Texas and one each in Oklahoma and Utah.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today
  • WH Group (288 HK)’s US/Mexican Spin-Off
  • TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index Rebalance: A Lot to Trade This Week
  • TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebalance Preview: 32% T/O; US$2.75bn Trade; HUGE Impact
  • KRX Value-Up Special Rebalance in December: Playbook & Screening Rundown
  • SF Holding (6936 HK): No Index Inclusion till Mid-2025; AH Premium Could Stay Wide
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Few Index Changes But High Impact
  • HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Resurfaces as a Rumoured Suitor
  • Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI
  • FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecasts: ALW and STJ for Top 100; MTRO and DEC for Next 250


My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

By Sanghyun Park

  • The market’s reaction to Samsung Fire’s stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.
  • I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.
  • I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.

WH Group (288 HK)’s US/Mexican Spin-Off

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on 14 July 2024, WH Group (288 HK) (WHG) announced it had submitted a plan to spin-off its Smithfield US and Mexican ops on the NYSE or NASDAQ
  • WHG the world’s largest pork producer, has now confirmed it will sell up to 20% of Smithfield’s shares on a fully diluted basis, in an initial public offering.
  • WHG has also proposed an assured entitlement for existing shareholders by way of a distribution in specie of existing shares of Smithfield, or a cash alternative.

TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index Rebalance: A Lot to Trade This Week

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 15 changes for the TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index in November. The Yuanta Taiwan Value High Dividend ETF (00940 TT) has an AUM of US$5bn.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 26% and there are 16 stocks with over 4 days of ADV left to trade. The rebalance commenced yesterday and will end on Friday.
  • An equal weighted basket of inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of deletions since July. That could continue over the week as the ETF continues to rebalance their portfolio.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebalance Preview: 32% T/O; US$2.75bn Trade; HUGE Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 284bn (US$8.7bn).
  • We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of around 15.8% and a round-trip trade of around US$2.75bn.
  • An equal weighted basket of potential inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of potential deletions since beginning September with a pick-up in pace over the last 2-3 weeks.

KRX Value-Up Special Rebalance in December: Playbook & Screening Rundown

By Sanghyun Park

  • Since Sep 24, 32 companies made Value-Up disclosures. After filtering, 17 remain, but KRX will keep inclusions tight. They’ll likely use PBR and ROE rankings for final selection.
  • We have 6 names—3 financials, 2 healthcare, 1 industrial. New Value-Up disclosures through Dec 6 could add more, but these 6 are the frontrunners for now.
  • KRX is likely to announce results by Dec 10-11. Start eyeing entry points 10 days prior, and if price action heats up early, consider pulling the trigger sooner.

SF Holding (6936 HK): No Index Inclusion till Mid-2025; AH Premium Could Stay Wide

By Brian Freitas

  • The S.F. Holding (002352 CH) H-shares are being offered at a price range of HK$32.3-36.3/share, a discount of 20.2%-29% to the A-shares. The max raise (including oversubscription) is US$912m.
  • Unlike Midea Group (300 HK), the S.F. Holding (002352 CH) H-shares will not get Fast Entry to any indices. Southbound Stock Connect inclusion will take place on 23 December.
  • With no index inclusion in the short-term, the H-shares discount to the A-shares should remain wide. The H-shares could become short sell eligible in February.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Few Index Changes But High Impact

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • We do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.
  • We expect one change for ASX 50 and one change for ASX 200.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Resurfaces as a Rumoured Suitor

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that China Mobile (941 HK) is exploring a buyout of HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) and is willing to pay at least HK$5.00, a 16.0% premium to last close.  
  • HKBN has been the subject of numerous bid rumours, which seemingly came to nothing due to the challenge of meeting the largest shareholders’ (TPG and MBK) price expectations. 
  • The rumoured offer price will struggle to gain TPG/MBK’s backing. The current valuation is unappealing, as HKBN trades at a premium multiple compared to peers at the last close. 

Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI

By John Ley

  • Vols have stabilized as market has moved away from peak short gamma levels just above the recent market highs.
  • HSI Put positions appear to have been rolled down to the 19,000 strike.
  • HSCEI saw significant put volume at the 6300 strike with ~15,000 contracts per day trading at that level.

FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecasts: ALW and STJ for Top 100; MTRO and DEC for Next 250

By Dimitris Ioannidis


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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief: Lenovo (992 HK) and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief: Lenovo (992 HK)
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief: Lenovo (992 HK)

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo
  • Credit markets widened on Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over increasing 8 bps to 304 bps.
  • European bourses declined 0.1-1.3%, except for the IBEX 35 (+1.0%). In the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Gajah Tunggal, Lenovo
  • In the US, advance retail sales came in slightly above expectations at 0.4% m-o-m in October (0.3% e / 0.8% revised p), driven by higher auto sales. In addition, retail sales growth for September was revised upwards to 0.8% (from 0.4%). Retail sales excluding auto expanded 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / 1.0% revised p).
  • Separately, industrial production fell 0.3% m-o-m in October (-0.4% e / -0.5% revised p), owing to the Boeing machinist strike and lingering impact from hurricanes Milton and Helene.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: A Deeper Look into Mamaearth’s Inventory Saga: Unpacking the Red Flags and Forensic Insights and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • A Deeper Look into Mamaearth’s Inventory Saga: Unpacking the Red Flags and Forensic Insights
  • 2025 High Conviction: Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) – Music as Promising Future
  • Korea Value Up Index Rebalance on 20 December
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals: Launch & Market Penetration of Olezarsen Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Nov-2024): Nvidia Blackwell rack design overheats, delays shipments.
  • Celsius Holdings Inc.: Expanding Distribution Partnerships For A Competitive Edge! – Major Drivers
  • Fortinet Inc.: These Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers
  • Ave Maria Focused Fund’s Chadd Garcia on misreading waste-focused $SES.TO as energy services
  • IBJ (6071 JP) – Raising the Quality of Earnings
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)


A Deeper Look into Mamaearth’s Inventory Saga: Unpacking the Red Flags and Forensic Insights

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Mamaearth’s journey to the stock market has been marred by allegations of channel stuffing, inventory mismanagement, and inconsistent communication from management. 
  • The company’s struggles in Q2 FY25 have raised concerns about their financial health and transparency. 
  • The forensic analysis is a deeper look into the allegations, redflags and bigger problems that require investor’s attention

2025 High Conviction: Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) – Music as Promising Future

By Ming Lu

  • Our 2024 High Conviction, the stock of Meituan has risen by 87% in one year.
  • We believe the market ignores TME because of its flat revenue.
  • However, we expect TME will significantly benefit from its dominant position in the Chinese music market.

Korea Value Up Index Rebalance on 20 December

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Exchange (KRX) plans to make special changes to the Korea Value-Up Index constituents on 20 December.
  • We believe that following five stocks are likely inclusions in the Korea Value Up index rebalance on 20 December (KB Financial, Hana Financial, SK Telecom, KT Corp, and LG Electronics).
  • The new companies that will be included in the Korea Value-Up Index include companies that provide detailed corporate value up plans by 6 December.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals: Launch & Market Penetration of Olezarsen Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals recently reported their third-quarter financial results for 2024, presenting a comprehensive view of its current position in the biotechnology sector.
  • The company’s focal points include imminent product launches, ongoing clinical trials, and strategic pipeline developments—all set within the context of their financial performance and future outlook.
  • The company is on the verge of launching its first independently marketed product, Olezarsen, for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), with an anticipated FDA action next month.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Nov-2024): Nvidia Blackwell rack design overheats, delays shipments.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Nvidia’s Blackwell rack design overheating issues causing potential shipment delays
  • AMD leading server market in 3Q24, Intel fighting back in PC market
  • Trump’s tariff changes impacting Chinese EV makers, with 4 strategies to navigate the changes. Huawei and Xiaomi dominate China’s AI smartphone market with over 50% market share.

Celsius Holdings Inc.: Expanding Distribution Partnerships For A Competitive Edge! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Celsius Holdings Inc.’s third-quarter 2024 earnings reveal a mixture of growth opportunities and challenges.
  • The energy drink company has managed to maintain robust consumer demand and retail sales growth despite a dip in total revenue compared to the previous year.
  • The company recorded a modest 7.1% increase in retail sales year-over-year for the quarter, with unit sales rising by 7.3%.

Fortinet Inc.: These Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fortinet’s third-quarter financial results for 2024 showcase robust performance and a strategic focus on growth markets in the cybersecurity landscape.
  • The company’s total revenue grew by 13%, a return to product revenue growth bolstered by strong service revenue expansion.
  • Fortinet’s strong execution led to record gross and operating margins, with the latter increasing by 830 basis points to over 36%.

Ave Maria Focused Fund’s Chadd Garcia on misreading waste-focused $SES.TO as energy services

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Secure Energy Services (SES) operates in the waste management and energy services industry, focusing on recurring revenue and pipeline businesses.
  • The company has potential for growth through acquisitions, with a strong focus on tuck-in acquisitions in the metals recycling sector.
  • Despite potential risks such as safety concerns and regulatory changes, Secure Energy Services has a strong dividend yield, free cash flow yield, and growth prospects, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


IBJ (6071 JP) – Raising the Quality of Earnings

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Positive results from core activities – Driven by sustained growth at the core matchmaking business, Q1-3 FY12/24 results were stronger than expected which was a positive surprise.
  • The company has maintained FY12/24 guidance, but has telegraphed stronger OP expectations and has announced an FY DPS of ¥8 (+33.3% YoY), indicating a more progressive shareholder returns policy.
  • With affiliate franchisee numbers on an uptrend and membership numbers continuing to rise at the Directly-Managed Lounge Business, we believe this demonstrates the company’s core business activities are growing, with improvement in the quality of earnings.

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong market sectors outperforming since the stimulus in September are Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare as Utilities, Telecom and Energy lag.
  • CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK) gets BUY recommendations as its results point to continued strength in the rail equipment sector with passenger volume surging.
  • Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) reported solid results as it shifts to a pay-to-stream subscription model. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) had a blowout quarter with EV sales surging.

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Daily Brief ECM: SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK, Company Hopes to Raise ~US$800 Mn, Less Than Anticipated
  • DigiCo REIT – The Positives – Hot Sector with Built in Growth
  • Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) – The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK, Company Hopes to Raise ~US$800 Mn, Less Than Anticipated

By Daniel Hellberg

  • SF Holding’s HKEX listing launched on Tuesday, November 19th; deal to be priced by 26th
  • SF hopes to raise about US$800 mn, less than originally anticipated in financial media
  • About one quarter of the offering will be taken up by ten cornerstone investors

DigiCo REIT – The Positives – Hot Sector with Built in Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) aims to raise over US$1bn in its Australian IPO.
  • DigiCo REIT (DREIT) aims to be a diversified owner, operator and developer of data centres, with a global portfolio and broad investment mandate across stabilised, value-add and development opportunities
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) – The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Based on current performance, Jiuyuan has lost growth momentum, showing signs of stagnant growth. The main reason is VBP. So far, Jiouting, Yinuojia, Jifuwei have been included in VBP.
  • Guyoudao is facing competitive pressure from both domestic and international competitors and could be finally included in VBP. JY29-2 is the next blockbuster product, but the prospects are not clear.
  • Jiuyuan’s market value is expected to be higher than Qyuns. Future valuation performance will depend on the progress of JY29-2 and the overall market situation of GLP-1s at that time

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Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Electronics, Jb Financial Group, SK Telecom and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today
  • KRX Value-Up Special Rebalance in December: Playbook & Screening Rundown
  • Korea Value Up Index Rebalance on 20 December


My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

By Sanghyun Park

  • The market’s reaction to Samsung Fire’s stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.
  • I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.
  • I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.

KRX Value-Up Special Rebalance in December: Playbook & Screening Rundown

By Sanghyun Park

  • Since Sep 24, 32 companies made Value-Up disclosures. After filtering, 17 remain, but KRX will keep inclusions tight. They’ll likely use PBR and ROE rankings for final selection.
  • We have 6 names—3 financials, 2 healthcare, 1 industrial. New Value-Up disclosures through Dec 6 could add more, but these 6 are the frontrunners for now.
  • KRX is likely to announce results by Dec 10-11. Start eyeing entry points 10 days prior, and if price action heats up early, consider pulling the trigger sooner.

Korea Value Up Index Rebalance on 20 December

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Exchange (KRX) plans to make special changes to the Korea Value-Up Index constituents on 20 December.
  • We believe that following five stocks are likely inclusions in the Korea Value Up index rebalance on 20 December (KB Financial, Hana Financial, SK Telecom, KT Corp, and LG Electronics).
  • The new companies that will be included in the Korea Value-Up Index include companies that provide detailed corporate value up plans by 6 December.

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Daily Brief India: Honasa Consumer and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • A Deeper Look into Mamaearth’s Inventory Saga: Unpacking the Red Flags and Forensic Insights


A Deeper Look into Mamaearth’s Inventory Saga: Unpacking the Red Flags and Forensic Insights

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Mamaearth’s journey to the stock market has been marred by allegations of channel stuffing, inventory mismanagement, and inconsistent communication from management. 
  • The company’s struggles in Q2 FY25 have raised concerns about their financial health and transparency. 
  • The forensic analysis is a deeper look into the allegations, redflags and bigger problems that require investor’s attention

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Daily Brief Japan: IBJ, Terumo Corp, Koito Manufacturing, Dentsu Inc, M&A Capital Partners, JTEC Corp/Osaka, Sodick Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • IBJ (6071 JP) – Raising the Quality of Earnings
  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Strong H1 Result Triggers Guidance Raise; Product Pipeline Entails Visibility
  • Koito Mfgr - 2024 Update (7276 JP)
  • Dentsu Group – Still fighting market headwinds
  • M&A Capital Partners (6080 JP): Coverage initiation, Full-year FY09/24 flash update
  • JTEC Corp (3446 JP) – Indications of Improving Returns
  • Sodick (6143 JP) – Key Metrics Point to Recovery and Upside


IBJ (6071 JP) – Raising the Quality of Earnings

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Positive results from core activities – Driven by sustained growth at the core matchmaking business, Q1-3 FY12/24 results were stronger than expected which was a positive surprise.
  • The company has maintained FY12/24 guidance, but has telegraphed stronger OP expectations and has announced an FY DPS of ¥8 (+33.3% YoY), indicating a more progressive shareholder returns policy.
  • With affiliate franchisee numbers on an uptrend and membership numbers continuing to rise at the Directly-Managed Lounge Business, we believe this demonstrates the company’s core business activities are growing, with improvement in the quality of earnings.

Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Strong H1 Result Triggers Guidance Raise; Product Pipeline Entails Visibility

By Tina Banerjee

  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP) reported better-than-expected H1FY25 result, with revenue, operating profit, and net profit all reached record highs for the first half. Profit margins continued to improve.
  • Revenue from C&V business grew 15% YoY to ¥306B (~60% of total revenue). More than 60% of the growth came from TIS (catheter) division, which grew 14% YoY to ¥201B.
  • Terumo has revised FY25 guidance upward, reflecting strong performance and changes in foreign exchange assumptions. Both revenue and profits are expected to reach record high in FY25.

Koito Mfgr - 2024 Update (7276 JP)

By Michael Fritzell

  • Orbis Japan Equity Fund recently wrote about auto supplier Koito Manufacturing (7276 JP) in their second-quarter 2024 letter.
  • So, who is Koito? It’s the world’s largest manufacturer of automotive lighting products, serving primarily Japanese customers such as Toyota, Nissan and Honda.
  • What stood out in Orbis’s second-quarter letter is that Koito plans to return JPY 350 billion to shareholders in the next five years, more than half the current market cap. Rational capital allocation is rare in Japan, so this number caught my attention.

Dentsu Group – Still fighting market headwinds

By Edison Investment Research

Dentsu posted Q324 organic net revenue growth of 0.3%, making a decline of 1.1% over the nine-month period. This is slightly below expectations at the half-year and, as the market for larger, transformational projects is still stagnant, management has trimmed full year organic revenue growth guidance to 0% (was 1%) and that for adjusted operating profit by 7%. There are positive elements to these figures, in particular continuing progress in Japan and good new business boosted by the ‘one dentsu’ initiative. The unveiling of the mid-term management plan has been delayed to February 2025, with the FY24 figures. Post the reaction to the Q3 figures, the shares now trade at a 10% discount to peers on EV/EBITDA.


M&A Capital Partners (6080 JP): Coverage initiation, Full-year FY09/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY09/24 revenue was JPY19.2bn, a decline of 8.1% YoY, with operating profit at JPY6.4bn, down 14.4%.
  • FY09/24 net income attributable to owners increased 5.6% YoY to JPY4.5bn, with a 104.4% achievement rate.
  • The company targets 376 deals and 405 consultants by FY09/27, with a CAGR of 19.4% and 31.0%.

JTEC Corp (3446 JP) – Indications of Improving Returns

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Improving sales mix lift gross margins – Gross margin increased to 65.9% in Q1 FY6/25 from 52.5% the previous year, demonstrating an improvement in the sales mix at the core Optical business segment which experienced demand for high-precision products with premium pricing.
  • While operating losses remained relatively flat YoY, the company is investing in IT systems that will improve its production and sales management which we believe will improve the quality of earnings, as well as assist in new business development.
  • Overall, we believe the company performed in line with guidance, with no change regarding expectations of the earnings profile to be concentrated in H2 FY6/25.

Sodick (6143 JP) – Key Metrics Point to Recovery and Upside

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Reforms transforming returns – Although the demand environment remains somewhat mixed, we believe that demand has bottomed for the key product Electronic Discharge Machines.
  • Q1-3 FY12/24 results highlighted that definitive progress is being made in terms of raising returns through structural reforms.
  • This focus on raising profitability can be seen through upselling activities and improved factory utilization.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Gajah Tunggal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Gajah Tunggal, Lenovo
  • In the US, advance retail sales came in slightly above expectations at 0.4% m-o-m in October (0.3% e / 0.8% revised p), driven by higher auto sales. In addition, retail sales growth for September was revised upwards to 0.8% (from 0.4%). Retail sales excluding auto expanded 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / 1.0% revised p).
  • Separately, industrial production fell 0.3% m-o-m in October (-0.4% e / -0.5% revised p), owing to the Boeing machinist strike and lingering impact from hurricanes Milton and Helene.

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