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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 13th): Pilbara Minerals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 13th): Pilbara Minerals, Xero, Apa, Coles, Wisetech Global


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 13th): Pilbara Minerals, Xero, Apa, Coles, Wisetech Global

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 13th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Pilbara Minerals, Xero, Apa, Coles, Wisetech Global.

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Daily Brief ESG: The Impact of the 2025 Revision of the Stewardship Code Is … and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Impact of the 2025 Revision of the Stewardship Code Is …


The Impact of the 2025 Revision of the Stewardship Code Is …

By Aki Matsumoto

  • For investors, it is a step forward to lower the hurdles for collaborative engagement, and for institutional investors, it is a step forward to reduce costs. 
  • It is hoped that passive funds, which have been reluctant to engage in engagement due to cost, will take a more positive approach.
  • Rule amendments to make it easier to identify substantial shareholders are expected to be negotiated in advance with substantial shareholders prior to voting.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025
  • Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Fade into Close
  • India’s Grid Transformation: A ₹9 Lakh Crore Opportunity for T&D EPC Firms
  • Singapore Market Roundup (19-Dec-2024): OCBC Research Head Predicts Bank Profit Increase
  • How the AI boom is reviving Three Mile Island
  • Navigating a new era of shipping environmental regulations
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:TCOM US/ ATAT US/1024 HK/700 HK/1439927D CH /BIDU/3690 HK/JD/BABA/PDD
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 13-19, 2024
  • Singapore Market Roundup (18-Dec-2024): KGI rates Elite UK REIT ‘outperform’, target price 37p.
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:TSLA US/1211 HK/LI US/1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/AAPL US/6753 JP


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • The 2024 vintage of “5 High Conviction Ideas” showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.
  • Our best performer was Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was AEM (AEM SP) down over 60%.
  • Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Fade into Close

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks saw an early rebound fade by Thursday’s close, leaving major indexes little changed
  • LINE Yahoo Japan may acquire BEENOS, a leading cross-border e-commerce company, through a tender offer worth ¥53.8 billion
  • TOPPAN Holdings announced its largest acquisition to date, purchasing five subsidiaries of Sonoco Products, a US packaging manufacturer, for ¥270 billion

India’s Grid Transformation: A ₹9 Lakh Crore Opportunity for T&D EPC Firms

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India’s NEP 2022-2032 presents a favorable outlook for EPC firms specializing in Transmission & Distribution by emphasizing transmission capacity enhancement, renewable energy integration, and modernization of existing assets. 
  • This translates into a projected capital expenditure of Rs. 9 Lakh Crore between FY25 and 32, offering EPC companies substantial growth opportunities. 
  • This growth is further strengthened by the NEP’s focus on embracing advanced technologies like HVDC and powering the green hydrogen/green ammonia economy, ultimately establishing a long-term growth trajectory for T&D.

Singapore Market Roundup (19-Dec-2024): OCBC Research Head Predicts Bank Profit Increase

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • OCBC research head considers raising banks’ 2025 profit forecasts due to expectations of fewer Fed cuts.
  • DBS advises purchasing Keppel Infrastructure Trust for reliable dividends and potential growth opportunities
  • Both banks are making strategic recommendations based on market trends and performance projections.

How the AI boom is reviving Three Mile Island

By Behind the Money

  • Three Mile Island nuclear site in Pennsylvania is being considered for revival to meet growing energy demands
  • Reopening Three Mile Island faces financial, staffing, regulatory challenges and opposition from community activists.
  • Nuclear power revival in the US driven by demand from tech companies like Microsoft for reliable, clean energy

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Navigating a new era of shipping environmental regulations

By Commodities Focus

  • Emerging regulatory changes in the shipping industry, including EU ETS and fuel EU regulations, are driving a shift towards more sustainable practices and alternative fuels.
  • Alternative fuels like methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen are expected to play a significant role in the maritime sector, with infrastructure and adoption challenges to overcome.
  • Price reporting agencies like Platts are adapting to these regulatory changes by launching new assessments and methodologies to accurately reflect market conditions and provide valuable insights to stakeholders.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:TCOM US/ ATAT US/1024 HK/700 HK/1439927D CH /BIDU/3690 HK/JD/BABA/PDD

By Ying Pan

  • TCOM US/ ATAT US: China Extends Transit Visa-Free Policy to 240 Hours(+/+)
  • 1024 HK: Kuaishou Introduces Subscription Service for Micro Drama Business (+)
  • 700 HK/1439927D CH/BIDU US: Apple Negotiates with Tencent and ByteDance to Launch AI Features in China (+/+/-)

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 13-19, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources

Singapore Market Roundup (18-Dec-2024): KGI rates Elite UK REIT ‘outperform’, target price 37p.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • In 2025, Singapore hotels focus on moderation in their practices to adapt to changing market conditions.
  • DBS selects CapitaLand Ascott Trust as its top choice, indicating confidence in the property trust’s performance.
  • Despite concerns about a potential property market bubble, DBS believes calls for cooling measures in Singapore are premature.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:TSLA US/1211 HK/LI US/1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/AAPL US/6753 JP

By Eric Wen

  • TSLA/1211 HK/LI/1810 HK/NIO/XPEV: The General Manager of Tesla’s Shanghai factory resigned to join an electric car company facing production capacity bottlenecks, possibly because FSD had no hope of entering China.(///////////)
  • 1211HK/LI/NIO/XPEV:In the 50th week of 2024, the market generally rose and sprint towards the end of the year.It will be difficult for NIO to achieve its guidance in the Q4(///////)
  • 1810 HK/AAPL US/6753 JP: Xiaomi to expand offline network in Japan (+/-/-)

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Daily Brief Credit: New Issue Snapshot: Vista Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • New Issue Snapshot: Vista Energy
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


New Issue Snapshot: Vista Energy

By Leandro Gubler

  • We are initiating coverage on Vista with an Outperform recommendation. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector.
  • Vista boasts a robust financial and business risk profile, supported by strong credit metrics, solid profitability, and its leadership position in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation.
  • Vista is exposed to fewer sovereign and political risks than YPF, and its unique growth opportunity adds to its appeal.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Shimao Group, Guangzhou R&F, New World Development
  • In the US, the FOMC has voted 11-1 to reduce the Fed funds target rate by 25 bps to 4.25-4.50%, a move in line with market expectations. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against the decision, in favour of keeping rates steady instead.
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted during a press conference that the central bank has lowered the policy rate by a full percentage point from its peak, adding that interest rates are still meaningfully restraining economic activity and that the Fed remains on track to further reduce rates.

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Daily Brief ECM: LG CNS Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Retail Demand Appears Hot and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • LG CNS Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Retail Demand Appears Hot, Digestible Val at Bottom End
  • Bloks Group IPO: Just a Traditional Toy Company in Red Ocean Market
  • IGI (India) IPO Trading – Decent Anchor and Strong Overall Demand
  • LG Electronics India IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Ventive Hospitality Pre-IPO – Leveraging Expanded Portfolio to Drive Growth


LG CNS Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Retail Demand Appears Hot, Digestible Val at Bottom End

By Clarence Chu

  • LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) is looking to raise around US$850m in its upcoming Korea IPO.
  • LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company. The firm primarily provides comprehensive digital transformation services and solutions backed AI, big data, and cloud.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

Bloks Group IPO: Just a Traditional Toy Company in Red Ocean Market

By John Liu

  • Bloks Group, founded in 2014, is China’s top assembly character toy company, targetting primiary school students.
  • Bloks faces competition from multiple domestic competitors in a slow growing market. The company’s aggressive market expanison in the past 2 years has come at a significant cost .
  • The IPO valuation may be high, considering the industry’s low barriers to entry and the company’s unstainable growth.

IGI (India) IPO Trading – Decent Anchor and Strong Overall Demand

By Sumeet Singh

  • International Gemmological Institute (India) raised around US$500m in its India IPO. 
  • IGI India is part of the International Gemmological Institute (IGI) group. As of 22nd August 2024, IGI India handled operations of the IGI business in India and Türkiye.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and IPO valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

LG Electronics India IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of LG Electronics India is implied market cap of 1,256 billion INR or US$14.7 billion.
  • Several media accounts have mentioned that LGEI could be targeting a valuation of about US$13 billion to US$15 billion.
  • LGEI’s valuation would need to be about US$13 billion or less in order for us to be Bullish on this IPO. 

Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Ltd (BJL) (0124165D IN) is planning to raise about US$118m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Axis, IIFL, Kotak.
  • BJL offers contemporary lifestyle diamond, gold, platinum, and studded jewellery under its flagship brand. 
  • It is a digital-first direct-to-consumer (DTC) brand and is the second largest digital-first omni-channel jewellery brand in India in terms of revenues for FY24 as per RedSeer Report.

Ventive Hospitality Pre-IPO – Leveraging Expanded Portfolio to Drive Growth

By Akshat Shah

  • Ventive Hospitality Ltd (0807075D IN) is looking to raise about US$188m in its India IPO. The deal, a fresh issue of shares is downsized from an earlier target of ~US$240m.
  • Ventive Hospitality Limited (VHL) is the largest hospitality asset owner amongst public listed market peers, focused primarily on luxury offerings across business and leisure in India and Maldives.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Sony To Buy 7+% Stake in Kadokawa (9468 JP) For ¥50bn and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Sony To Buy 7+% Stake in Kadokawa (9468 JP) For ¥50bn, Ending Near-Term Hopes of Takeover
  • SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes; Cal Comp🚀
  • Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved
  • MPHB Capital (MPHB MK)’s Offer: Almost There As ISM Exhausts Options
  • LY Corp (4689) Announces Takeover of Beenos (3328) – Lightish at ¥4,000 But A Done Deal
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 25: ~US$5.9bn Collective One-Way Flows
  • Korea FSC’s Stabilization Fund: Breaking Down the Buzz and Flow Impact
  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar25: Multiple Changes, Large Flows; High-Impact Trade Idea
  • CPMC (906 HK): Tendering Now Open
  • LS Electric, Then Hyundai Rotem, Now Samyang Foods and Hyundai Mipo: Same Proactive Flow?


Sony To Buy 7+% Stake in Kadokawa (9468 JP) For ¥50bn, Ending Near-Term Hopes of Takeover

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Kadokawa (9468 JP) announced it would sell ¥50bn of shares to Sony (6758 JP) in a 3rd Party Allotment to cement a Strategic/Capital Alliance. Sony will own 10% at ¥4,146/share.
  • 40% of proceeds is to “create and develop new IP”, 60% is to “enhance global IP distribution”; both over 5yrs. Given ¥108bn of net cash/securities, this is a garbage reason. 
  • Kadokawa shares have gained 44% in a month since Reuters carried an “Exclusive” article saying Sony was in talks to acquire Kadokawa. This is defensive entrenchment. The result will disappoint.

SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes; Cal Comp🚀

By Brian Freitas


Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved

By David Blennerhassett


MPHB Capital (MPHB MK)’s Offer: Almost There As ISM Exhausts Options

By David Blennerhassett

  • MPHB Capital (MPHB MK)‘s delisting Offer via a selective capital reduction (SCR) from controlling shareholder and chairman Tan Sri Surin Upatkoon appears to be in the home straight.
  • The completion of the Offer has been delayed as ISM Sdn Bhd, MPHB’s minority partner in six JVs, invokes various legal options in an ongoing dispute.
  • The High Court has now fixed 6 January 2025 as the hearing date for the SCR petition. Assuming that is granted, payment is likely mid-Feb.  

LY Corp (4689) Announces Takeover of Beenos (3328) – Lightish at ¥4,000 But A Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Early today, the Nikkei had an article saying LY (4689 JP) would launch a takeover of Beenos Inc (3328 JP). The stock went limit up. Shorts are many times ADV. 
  • Post-Close, we get a deal much as implied by the Nikkei article. It seems light to me but the top three holders have agreed to the deal.
  • Regulatory will take a couple of months. This will likely fall tomorrow. If you are a long-only fund holder, think about the alternatives (read the conclusions here).

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 25: ~US$5.9bn Collective One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Korea FSC’s Stabilization Fund: Breaking Down the Buzz and Flow Impact

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the Fed shock pushing the won past 1,450 and the KOSPI down, it’s time to dig into the stabilization fund—its size, timing, and which stocks will catch the flow.
  • With ₩10T in play, even spread over 10 stages, it could drive significant price impact. NPS’s ₩1.5T injection in December shows how even smaller flows move the market.
  • The FSC plans to focus on KOSPI 200 and broad market ETFs, with new ETFs like the Value-Up Index likely getting more flow—target stocks in both for bigger impact.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar25: Multiple Changes, Large Flows; High-Impact Trade Idea

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
  • In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR50/STAR100 indices for the March 2025 index rebal event and suggest a high impact trade idea.

CPMC (906 HK): Tendering Now Open

By David Blennerhassett

  • At a 1.5% gross spread to terms, CPMC Holdings (906 HK) is trading with completion is mind after the last pre-condition – SAFE – was satisfied on the 13th December
  • The Offer Doc is now out and the transaction is open for acceptances. The First Close is the 10th January. 
  • I’d expect this deal to turn unconditional on or before the First Close, with payment around the 20th January.  

LS Electric, Then Hyundai Rotem, Now Samyang Foods and Hyundai Mipo: Same Proactive Flow?

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local hedge funds, mainly prop traders and PEs, drove the price action in LS Electric and Hyundai Rotem, and are now leading net buying in Samyang Foods and Hyundai Mipo.
  • Given the setup, it’s likely Samyang Foods and HD Hyundai Mipo will follow a similar move until mid-January when screening starts, so we should stay aware of this backdrop.
  • This gives us a chance to capture upside. Plus, since Samyang Foods and Hyundai Mipo may pull back 30-40% post-screening, there’s also a solid opportunity during that dip.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Shimano: An Opportunity for Activist Investors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Shimano: An Opportunity for Activist Investors
  • Tempus AI: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion in Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) Testing & 4 Other Factors That Could Shape Its Future! – Major Drivers
  • Nextage (3186) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024
  • BOC Aviation (2588 HK): Lease Rate Surge to Boost Earnings; Undervalued Stock with 4.5% Div Yield
  • Broadcom Inc: These Are The 5 Major Hurdles That It Faces In 2025! – Major Drivers
  • Temu Suffers First Big Setback as Vietnam Suspends Its Operations
  • Nasdaq CEO: Tech Innovation, Leadership and Fighting Financial Crime
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (December 13)
  • Citigroup Inc (C) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024
  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C on the Turn


Shimano: An Opportunity for Activist Investors

By Mark Chadwick

  • Shimano, the Japanese maker of bicycle components and fishing equipment, is in need of a strategic gear change
  • A significant -25% decline in FY23 net sales highlights Shimano’s struggles. Revenues dropped a further -11% in the first nine months of 2024
  • For investors seeking opportunity at the bottom of the cycle, Shimano presents a compelling case. The stock is trading at 2.3x book value

Tempus AI: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion in Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) Testing & 4 Other Factors That Could Shape Its Future! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tempus AI reported its third-quarter 2024 financial results, reflecting positive revenue growth but continuing to face profitability challenges.
  • Revenue rose by 33%, reaching $180.9 million, driven by growth in the Genomics and Data and Services segments.
  • Notably, the Genomics unit growth accelerated to 23.9%, which shows a significant uptick from the previous quarter.

Nextage (3186) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Nextage is a prominent player in Japan’s fragmented used car dealer market
  • The company is looking to grow through suburban superstores, similar to CarMax in the US
  • Despite recent scandal involving competitors, Nextage is positioned for growth with potential for expansion in Japan’s used vehicle market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


BOC Aviation (2588 HK): Lease Rate Surge to Boost Earnings; Undervalued Stock with 4.5% Div Yield

By John Liu

  • Global aviation supply continues to suffer from various supply chain disruptions, driving up lease rates and aircraft values and benefiting aircraft lessors, such as BOC Aviation (BOCA) 
  • Although BOCA’s interim results were disappointing due to delayed aircraft deliveries, I expect its momentum to recover in 2025, driven by incoming aircraft and lower interest costs. 
  • Stock is trading at 0.9x PB, nearing its historical trough of 0.8x, and offering a decent 5% dividend yield.

Broadcom Inc: These Are The 5 Major Hurdles That It Faces In 2025! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Broadcom Inc.’s financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 reveal a year marked by significant growth driven by strategic acquisitions and advancements in AI technologies.
  • The company’s consolidated revenue for the fiscal year reached $51.6 billion, showcasing a 44% year-over-year increase.
  • This growth was bolstered not only by strong organic growth of over 9% but also by the strategic acquisition and integration of VMware, which contributed notably to Broadcom’s financial achievements.

Temu Suffers First Big Setback as Vietnam Suspends Its Operations

By Caixin Global

  • Temu, the Chinese cross-border e-commerce platform owned by PDD Holdings Inc. has suffered its first major setback since launching in 2022 after Vietnam banned its operations citing regulatory non-compliance only two months after it entered the market.
  • Temu was ordered by the Ministry of Industry and Trade to stop using the Vietnamese language on its website and app, to notify customers that its e-commerce registration was under review, and to halt all marketing activities in the country, according to a report by Vietnam News Agency on Dec.
  • The suspension is Temu’s first since expanding into more than 80 countries around the world.

Nasdaq CEO: Tech Innovation, Leadership and Fighting Financial Crime

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • Nicola Tangen and Adena Friedman discuss the importance of integrity, transparency, and trust in the financial system
  • Nasdaq’s vision is to be the trusted fabric for the world’s financial system, focusing on technology and partnerships
  • Adena shares her leadership journey, emphasizing the importance of empowerment, curiosity, and kindness in leadership. She also highlights the lessons learned from Korean kickboxing, pottery, and pickleball in relaxation and personal growth.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (December 13)

By David Mudd

  • The H share market continues to be the top performing market in Asia in 2024.  The HSCEI has outperformed all Asian markets on a USD basis.
  • China Longyuan Power (916 HK) was rated a BUY at JP Morgan with the company hosting a roadshow to discuss its future growth strategy. 
  • China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) was initiated as a BUY at CMB International as the company rapidly expands into the ready-to-drink category with teas and sports drinks.

Citigroup Inc (C) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Investors are disappointed with Citigroup’s lackluster profitability compared to other large US banks, leading to a low valuation of 0.65x TBV
  • Potential for improvement as the company has excess capital and may be able to increase profitability to reach a 10% ROTE in the next two years
  • Predictions suggest that if Citigroup reaches its targets, there could be a significant increase in share value, with TBV/share reaching $100 and EPS of $10 by 2026, presenting a compelling investment opportunity for those willing to take a risk on the bank’s future performance.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C on the Turn

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) has started to see better performance from Big C SSSG from 3Q2024, with strong performance in October and November, with an expected strong finish to FY2024. 
  • The company continues to focus on expanding its fresh food offering, introducing more private labels into its modern retail segment, and using AI to improve logistics performance. 
  • Berli Jucker‘s packaging business is benefitting from raw material lower input costs coupled with active hedging as well as a switch to Aluminium cans from PET. Valuations remain attractive. 

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Daily Brief Macro: Positioning Watch – Everything you need to know about Fixed Income positioning before we enter 2025 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Positioning Watch – Everything you need to know about Fixed Income positioning before we enter 2025
  • T.R.U.M.P | Dec 19, 2024
  • [ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports
  • India’s Tire Exports Surge Amid R&D, Manufacturing Boost
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 20 Dec 2024
  • BoE Doves Frame Cut For February
  • Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Dec-24
  • CX Daily: How Shift to EVs Risks Sidelining Auto Parts Giants
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Nov (Forecast)
  • Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut to 2.5% (Consensus 2.5%) in Dec-24


Positioning Watch – Everything you need to know about Fixed Income positioning before we enter 2025

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update – this week with a strong focus on the moves we are seeing in Fixed Income and forward-pricing at the moment and the subsequent positioning as we head into 2025.
  • Markets continue to lean bearish on the Eurozone while upbeat on the US in equity terms, and likely for good reasons as macro data hasn’t given any good arguments as to why one should be upbeat on the Eurozone, and the signs we are getting on European growth in our nowcasts have yet to show up in actual releases – for now, it’s mainly the less China sensitive countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece that are performing macro-wise while Germany, France and Italy suffer.
  • GDP growth is surprisingly strong in the first 3 whilst very weak in the latter 3, and given the latter’s weighting in European equity indices, it makes sense why we are seeing hedge funds being long consumer staples, health care and other defensives while scaling down bets on cyclical equities.

T.R.U.M.P | Dec 19, 2024

By Mark Tinker

  • According to Webster the word of the year is Polarization.
  • Oxford have Brain Rot and Cambridge have Manifest. Collins have Brat, which was apparently ‘made famous by a Chari XCX album’ (me neither).
  • Personally, just as Cozzy Livs (cost of living) was my favourite in 2023, this year really deserves to be ‘Word Salad’, although without Kamala it is unlikely to reappear anywhere near as much.

[ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 13/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 0.9m barrels, missing forecasts. Gasoline stocks rose more than anticipated, while distillate inventories declined more than expected.
  • US natural gas inventories fell by 125 Bcf for the week ending 13/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 123 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 3.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Major analysts lowered their 12-month PTs on Exxon, SLB, Halliburton, and Occidental. Also, Barclays downgraded its rating on Halliburton to Equalweight from Overweight.

India’s Tire Exports Surge Amid R&D, Manufacturing Boost

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • FY 2024-25 H1 witnesses 12% YoY growth in tire exports value 
  • Motorcycle tire exports volume up by 37%; Columbia largest importer 
  • Bridgestone to invest US$85 million for India expansion 

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 20 Dec 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • US and China treasury yields highlight inflation control challenges, with the Fed’s rate cut fueling market uncertainty.
  • Asia’s mixed monetary decisions saw Japan hold rates, while the Philippines’ cuts worsened currency pressures.
  • China’s retail sales remain resilient despite lower growth expectations, contrasting with declining real sales in the US.

BoE Doves Frame Cut For February

By Phil Rush

  • The BoE matched widespread expectations again by holding the Bank rate at 4.75%, although the three dissenters exceeded the two we expected (consensus was for one).
  • Surprisingly high wage growth is reinforcing the gradualist urge of most members. Softer labour market conditions will likely be used to justify a February rate cut.
  • We maintain our call for BoE cuts in February and May before an extended pause that may end with rate hikes to remove accidental stimulus amid high neutral rates.

Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Dec-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, aligning with the consensus, and signalled potential easing from March 2025, contingent on continued economic moderation.
  • Inflation has slowed significantly but remains above target, constrained by high wage growth and business costs; domestic activity has exceeded expectations, while unemployment remains stable.
  • The outlook is marked by uncertainty, with risks from global trade policy and domestic inflationary pressures influencing the trajectory of future rate adjustments.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

CX Daily: How Shift to EVs Risks Sidelining Auto Parts Giants

By Caixin Global

  • EVs / In Depth: How shift to EVs risks sidelining auto parts giants
  • Toy /In Depth: China’s trendy toy makers march into Southeast Asia
  • Delivery /China’s food delivery giants to introduce mandatory rest breaks for riders

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Nov (Forecast)

By Actinver

  • We expect inflation for the first fortnight of December to stand at 0.38% bw, given the rebound in prices following “El Buen Fin” discount season.
  • This fortnight inflation would be in line with the increase of 0.38% bw that is typical observed in this period.
  • Our forecast is explained by the 0.45% bw increase in core inflation (typically 0.44% bw in the period).

Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut to 2.5% (Consensus 2.5%) in Dec-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5%, meeting consensus expectations and reflecting a total reduction of 1.5 percentage points since May 2024 to support weak economic activity and stabilise inflation near the target.
  • Forward guidance indicates the potential for another rate cut in H1 2025, contingent on stable inflation and growth projections, emphasising evaluating the lagged effects of earlier policy adjustments.
  • External uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy ambiguities, alongside domestic risks, such as the krona’s exchange rate and fragile recovery momentum, will influence future monetary policy decisions.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Daily Brief Crypto: 2025 High Conviction: Bitcoin Long – New All-Time Highs on the Horizon and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 2025 High Conviction: Bitcoin Long – New All-Time Highs on the Horizon


2025 High Conviction: Bitcoin Long – New All-Time Highs on the Horizon

By Christopher Rosa

  • $240K Target: Bitcoin is projected to reach $240K by late Q3–Q4 2025, driven by global liquidity, the halving, and institutional demand via spot ETFs.
  • Liquidity Drivers: Bitcoin’s bull run will be fueled by U.S. fiscal easing, China’s liquidity injections, spot ETF demand, and the upcoming 2024 halving event.
  • Strategic Timing: Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin will peak in late Q3–Q4 2025, driven by synchronized global liquidity expansion and institutional adoption.

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Daily Brief Australia: Amaero International Ltd, Structural Monitoring Cdi and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Amaero International Ltd – More milestones met, moving closer to commercialisation
  • Structural Monitoring Systems – 80% of low-end revenue guidance covered


Amaero International Ltd – More milestones met, moving closer to commercialisation

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published a flash comment on advanced materials manufacturing group Amaero International (ASX:3DA) following the company’s recent announcements that it has ordered its third EIGA and that it has secured Aerospace Quality Management System AS9100D accreditation for the Tennessee facility for the manufacturing and testing of metal powder and PM-HIP production, both important milestones on the path to commercialisation.
  • We have already incorporated the company’s capex guidance in our forecasts so do not anticipate any change to our estimates from these announcements.
  • Our base-case DCF valuation is $1.16/share, fully diluted, which represents potential capital upside of 346%.

Structural Monitoring Systems – 80% of low-end revenue guidance covered

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published an update on vertically-integrated aviation designer and manufacturer Structural Monitoring Systems (ASX:SMN) following the company’s update on its guidance which suggests that 80% or $24m of the $30m low-end FY25 revenue guidance is now contracted.
  • SMN has provided an update to FY25 guidance announced on November 1, where revenue was guided to $30m-$34m, +14% at the midpoint on FY24, and for EBITDA of between $7.6m and $9.1m, +300% at the midpoint on FY24.
  • The update suggests 80% or $24m of the $30m low-end revenue guidance is now contracted following a successful year-end sales campaign for the new Forest Radio product.

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