This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Holding Up; ASE & CHT See Sharp Drops
- TSMC: +15.6% Premium; Relatively Aggressive Trade is to Long Premium
- ASE: -3.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
- CHT: -2.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
2. TSMC Q324 Earnings Key Takeaways
- Q424 revenue forecast of $26.5 billion, up 13% QoQ and the highest Q3 to Q4 revenue jump since Q4 2017
- Demand for AI acceleration is real and just beginning. According to a key customer of theirs, “demand right now is just insane”
- Overseas fabs progressing well with Arizona yielding well and on track for high volume production in early 2025
3. ASML Tanks Semis On Tepid 2025 Outlook
- ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion
- Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022
- Despite these challenges, ASML’s latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025
4. TSMC 3Q24: Capex & Margin Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long
- TSMC Delivers Strong 3Q24 Revenue and Margin Growth; Margin Guidance Climbs
- Management Says Believes AI Demand is Not Hyped… Companies Extracting ROIs
- TSMC – Structural Long Rating Maintained; NT$1,515 Price Target Suggests 46% Upside
5. Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?
- August’s WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion
- Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement
- There’s valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales
6. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.
- 4Q24 Guidance: Sales will be US$26.1-26.9bn, up 13%; GM outlook will be 57-59%; and OPM outlook is 46.5-48.5%
- AI revenue contribution will triple and reach mid-teens sales contribution this year. Almost every AI innovator cooperates with TSMC.
- APT will grow above the corporate average in the next five years.GM is approaching the corporate average, but it’s not the same currently.
7. KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025
- We expect King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)‘s 4Q24 outlook to be a seasonal uptrend with a slight increase quarter-over-quarter.
- NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will become the top client at KYEC, and Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is expected to become the second-largest client in the outlook for 2025.
- The focus will primarily be on currently available sources, particularly KYEC for production.
8. Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung’s Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus
- Hua-Where? Hua-Who? Report: Apple’s iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max Sales Surge 44% in China; A Strong Start Amidst Competition
- Samsung Under Siege: Facing Major Challenges Across Verticals as TSMC Tightens Foundry Grip
- TSMC 3Q24: Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long… TSMC is Working with All AI Innovators
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Hyundai Motor India IPO: Valuation Insights
- Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN), a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor (005385 KS), aims to raise up to US$3.3 billion at a valuation of US$19 billion.
- We previously discussed the IPO in Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case, Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bear Case and Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Investment Case.
- Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs1,865-1,960 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.
2. Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – More of the Same, Lots to Watch Out For
- Horizon Robotics is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
- In this note, we talk about the recent updates from its filings.
3. ECM Weekly (14th Oct 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, Hyundai, China Res, Swiggy, USS, Akeso, Shiyue
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the live IPOs front, the two Japanese IPOs, Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) and Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) appeared attractively priced. The same couldn’t be said about Hyundai Motor India.
- On the placements front, there were deals in Hong Kong, Japan and India.
4. China Resources Beverage IPO – Volatility Makes Pricing a Bit Tricky
- China Resources Beverage (CRB HK) is looking to raise up to US$650m in its Hong Kong IPO.
- China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.
5. Akeso Biopharma Placement – The Placing Price Is Not Cheap Despite Positive Business Progress
- HARMONi-2 results are impressive and the overall data is solid and reliable. The NMPA has approved NDA of ebronucimab and sNDA of cadonilimab. Akeso’s fundamentals have indeed undergone positive changes.
- Akeso’s current market capitalization already partially reflects the positive expectation about the future successful FDA approval of AK112. In our view, the Placing Price is not cheap.
- When the market value falls back to below RMB45 billion is a more comfortable valuation to buy Akeso, and below RMB35 billion market value provides a golden opportunity.
6. Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Good, The Bad and The Valuation. Not for Quick Gain Seekers
- Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) ‘s USD 3 billion+ IPO opens today, 15th October, at 10:00 am IST. The bidding will remain open until 4:30 pm IST on 17th October.
- Near-Term Outlook: Limited Short-Term Gain Potential. While Hyundai is likely to outperform Maruti Suzuki given the valuation discount, it may underperform the broader sector in the near term.
- Long-Term Opportunity: For investors with a longer-term horizon, Hyundai presents a relatively low-risk opportunity. Its established brand and world-class manufacturing facilities offer the potential for steady, long-term growth.
7. FCP Capital Sends a Proposal to KT&G to Buy Korea Ginseng Corp for 1.9 Trillion Won
- On 14 October, FCP Capital sent a proposal to KT&G to purchase Korea Ginseng Corp for 1.9 trillion won.
- Although KT&G stated that it has no intentions to sell Korea Ginseng Corp, this proposal highlights the ongoing pressure by FCP Capital to improve further value in KT&G.
- The 1.9 trillion won in proposed purchase price is higher than the 1.2 trillion won to 1.3 trillion won that KT&G revealed as the intrinsic value of Korea Ginseng Corp.
8. CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights
- China Resources Beverage (CRB HK), China’s largest purified drinking water company, has launched its HKEx IPO to raise up to US$650 million.
- We previously discussed the IPO in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case and CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case.
- Our valuation analysis suggests that CR Beverage is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.
9. Horizon Robotics IPO – Peers Are Down a Lot, Its Valuation Isn’t
- Horizon Robotics is looking to raise up to US$696m in its Hong Kong IPO.
- Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.
10. Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: The Bull Case
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), a provider of autonomous driving products and services, is seeking to raise up to US$696 million through a HKEx IPO.
- Horizon ranked fourth among all global ADAS and AD solution providers in China by solution installation volume in 2023 and 1H24, with a market share of 9.3% and 15.4%, respectively.
- The bull case rests on a large TAM, a blue-chip customer base, a robust backlog, a core business in good health, a high gross margin, and a strong balance sheet.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Bain Bids Bigger, Goes Hard on Fuji Soft (9749); I’ve Got 🍿🍿🍿
- As they had announced was their intention, Bain has made a binding offer for Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), bidding ¥9,450 against KKR’s ¥8,800. They aim to launch late October.
- There is no minimum and no maximum. The Founding Nozawa family had thrown their lot in with Bain not KKR and that 18.5% is tied up.
- There are conditions, and those are ALL-important. And I expect we see in the next week or so how coercive KKR’s “non-coercive” scheme change was. I’ve got 🍿🍿🍿.
2. MBK’s Korea Zinc & Young Poong Precision Tender Results Officially Out
- MBK officially disclosed that they scooped up 5.34% of the Korea Zinc (010130 KS) shares in the tender that wrapped up today.
- MBK scored a partial win by securing more voting rights than Choi, with unexpected backing from foreign and local institutions, likely due to proration risk over legal issues.
- Still, securing just 5.34% puts MBK in a tough position, requiring them to navigate minority shareholder votes while pushing hard on the legal front to block the buyback.
3. China ETF Inflows & Implications: YTD Inflows Nearing US$150bn
- Nearly US$140bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs year to date and there have been big creations in the last few weeks as stocks have surged.
- 97% of all inflows are in ETFs benchmarked to the CSI300, CSI1000, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext and STAR50 indices. But over US$4bn has gone into other ETFs in the last week.
- The large ETF inflows over the last few weeks has led to index rebalance strategies underperforming in China. But that should reverse from now to rebalance implementation.
4. S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Big Impact as Shorts Ramp Up
- With three quarters of the review period complete, there could be one change for the S&P/ASX 50 Index and two changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
- There are two stocks that could be deleted from global indexes in November and that could keep those names under pressure for the next few weeks.
- Passive trackers will need to buy between 4-5x ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 2-8x ADV in the forecast deletes. Shorts have been building up in some names.
5. Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade
- Using data from the close on 11 October, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
- There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a one-way trade of TWD 49bn (US$1.52bn)
- Shorts have been building up in some of the forecast deletes and in a couple of the forecast adds as well.
6. China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Index Inclusions & Stock Connect in 2025
- China Resources Beverage (CRB HK) is offering 347.8m shares in its IPO at a price range of HK$13.5-14.5/share. With the overallotment option, the IPO could raise up to HK$5.8bn (US$474m).
- Cornerstone investors will take up nearly half the offer. Those shares will be locked up for 6 months and will significantly reduce the free float of the stock.
- Index inclusions will commence with the HSCI in March 2025 – that will also result in Stock Connect inclusion. The next index inclusion will take place in June.
7. Korea Value-Up ETFs: Latest Market Info on Initial AUM Setup & Resulting Passive Impacts
- KRX will launch 12 ETFs tracking the Korea Value-Up Index on November 4—9 passive and 3 active—aiming for an initial AUM exceeding 1 trillion KRW.
- KRX is pressuring ETF operators to reveal initial capital by November 4, with expectations to exceed 1 trillion KRW due to government pressure.
- Early signs of position buildup are emerging, so it’s essential to monitor stocks with significant passive impact closely moving forward.
8. Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Bain’s Better Late than Never Competing Offer
- Bain’s pre-conditional tender offer for Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) is JPY9,450, a 7.4% premium to KKR’s JPY8,800 offer. There is no minimum or maximum acceptance condition.
- The preconditions relate to regulatory approval (Vietnam) and Board recommendation. Bain’s offer is designed to bring KKR to the negotiating table to find a solution to privatisation.
- KKR can 1) do nothing, 2) work with Bain on a solution, or 3) engage in a price war to prevent the satisfaction of Bain’s Board recommendation precondition.
9. Merger Arb Mondays (14 Oct) – Haitong/GJTA, GA Pack, Henlius, Canvest, Seven & I, Arcadium Lithium
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP).
- Lowest spreads: Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP), Xingda International (1899 HK), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP), Descente Ltd (8114 JP), T Gaia Corp (3738 JP).
10. Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext Dec 24: US$400mn Expected Inflow for Jiangsu Hoperun
- The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
- The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
- In this insight, we have presented our updated rankings for Potential ADDs and DELs for the upcoming index rebal event in December 2024.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. OVER THE HORIZON: Thematic Review Year-To-Date
- Our most prominent theme this year has been to BUY HK/China markets. We are still very bullish on these SECULAR BULL markets.
- We have been Bullish on gold and discussed the asymmetry of its price movements given the global tightening starting in 2021/22. Gold will continues to benefit from negative real rates.
- We have been Bearish on Japan since publishing Technically Speaking: Japan Meets Resistance and Hong Kong Finally Breaks Downtrend on April 2nd. Japan’s market is facing significant headwinds going forward.
2. Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (OCTOBER 14)
- Hong Kong Dollar continues to trade at the strong end of its band resulting in upward pressure on HIBOR in turn causing a further unwind of the HKD carry trade.
- HSI shows the strongest market breadth in 15 years as nearly all members trade above 200 DMA.
- Xtep International (1368 HK) , Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and China Education Group (839 HK) all had breakouts to form uptrends. All are part of the consumption sector in China
3. GEM Funds Underperform in Q3.
- Active EM Funds delivered an average return of +6.85% in Q3, underperforming the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.83%, with 38.8% of funds beating the index.
- Morgan Stanley Developing Opportunity and Aikya Emerging Markets topped the performance charts for the quarter.
- Underweights in Alibaba Group Holding and Meituan, and overweights in SK Hynix and cash holdings hurt performance.
4. HK/China: DOOM AND GLOOM? DON’T GET FOOLED AGAIN
- As HK/China markets complete their retracements after the best rally in more than a decade, the exaggerated pessimism from the media and analysts returns.
- The government continues to roll out measures to relieve the pressure on the property market in what is a multi-year process with no quick fix.
- Even after a historic rally, the HSI still trades at a significant valuation discount which will narrow in the coming months.
5. China Watch: Time to play briefing bingo again..
- Welcome to our China Watch series, where we look at the Chinese case through the lens of Western investors.
- Tomorrow, we will have another briefing aimed at boosting the property market, which is one of those tricky conundrums to deal with.
- Housing starts have already dropped back 20 years, and the value of unsold homes and projects is sky-high.
6. Steno Signals #121: Whatever It Takes—In the US, but NOT in China
- Happy Sunday from Copenhagen!I spent most of Saturday morning discussing the fiscal briefing with clients.
- Even though I’m admittedly not as actively involved in business with China as I was a few years ago, I still feel relatively comfortable assessing the ramifications of the briefing.
- It was exactly what I feared: a big nothing burger.
7. Portfolio Watch: China needs to deliver, or it could end in tears
- The fiscal briefing in China tomorrow will be crucial, as inflows into the country have significantly diminished in recent days.
- This highlights the need for a constant stream of positive news to sustain the rally.
- Given the expectations building around the message from Chinese authorities, we don’t have high hopes that they will exceed market consensus.
8. The Week at a Glance: No Bazooka from China (Yet) – Over to You, ECB
- The recent Chinese fiscal briefing was underwhelming, as expected.
- China continues to focus on supply-side measures, which remain ineffective in addressing the pressing need for increased demand.
- Instead of stimulating consumption across the economy, China is attempting to incentivize asset demand and reshuffle credit profiles—approaches unlikely to produce meaningful results.
9. Comparison Between China and Japan Debts
- China housing crisis will likely mean that household debt/GDP flat lines in the coming years like Japan after 1990 and be a headwind for consumption.
- Meanwhile, the downturn in residential construction is already greater than that experienced by Japan after 1990 and in itself will be remain a structural headwind for China GDP.
- Though China corporate debt/GDP ratio is higher than Japan in 1990, China LGFV debt is 50% of GDP and will be swapped for local and central government debt.
10. CrossASEAN Ground Zero – Bukalapak, Astra International, OhHaju, and Sea Ltd
- This week we look at Bukalapak, as Emtek increases its direct stake, Astra‘s latest healthcare push into cardiology, and Ohhaju (OKJ TB), Thailand’s latest organic food IPO.
- We also look at Sea Ltd (SE US)‘s latest move to apply for a digital banking licence in Thailand, which will help to further increase the platform’s regional footprint.
- CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects
- Samsung’s foundry business is losing more customers to TSMC, who is perceived as lower risk.
- TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up strong but plateauing, UMC lackluster, confirming 2 big trends.
- Memory Monitor: Nanya results miss; highlights weakness in non-AI demand.
2. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.
- For 2nm technology, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) should start Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 17 production in the middle of 2025, most likely.
- TSMC’s competitors, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and Intel Corp (INTC US) are running foundry business and keeping owning manufacturing business at the same time, which is contradictory to purely foundry business.
- To making the advanced chip in the US, we consider the main main concern still the cost.
3. TSMC Q324 Earnings Preview
- September 2024 revenues of NT$251.87 billion, an increase of 0.4% MoM and an increase of 39.6% YoY.
- Year to date revenue through September 2024 now totals NT$2,025.85 billion, an increase of 31.9% YoY.
- Anticipating Q4 revenue forecast of $25.7 billion, up 10% QoQ. This would mean full year 2024 revenues of $88.8 billion, a 28.3% YoY increase
4. Cerebras Files Intent To IPO. This Will Be Interesting
- Cerebras presently derives up to 87% of its revenue from G42
- Microsoft gatecrashed Cerebras party with a $1.5 billion investment in G42 to “accelerate AI development and global expansion”
- G42 “severed its ties” with China in advance of the Microsoft investment
5. Graphene. Wonder Material Or Hype Magnet?
- Two decades ago, graphene hit the headlines after two professors at University of Manchester managed to isolate a slice of the just one-atom thick substance using scotch tape
- Marketed as being 200 times stronger than steel, graphene rapidly gained “wonder material” status and spawned a tidal wave of graphene based products, companies and investment opportunities
- At least four “Graphene” companies listed on London’s AIM, collectively once worth north of $1 billion, have either delisted or been reduced to penny stock status.
6. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.
- United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)’s outlook for 4Q24 is expected to show a decrease of around -5% QoQ, with a minimum gross margin of 30%.
- Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) moving out of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) and has opened up opportunities for UMC.
- UMC is considering selling its 8″ Fab, known as 8S, due to its consistently poor performance.
7. Nuclear Zeitgeist Part 1: A Reactor Primer
- Last month, the DOE published a paper about the commercial liftoff of Advanced Nuclear.
- Larry Ellison mentioned that SMRs (Small modular reactors) will power data centers in the future, and Microsoft will unshutter 3 Mile Island for one last puff of a half-smoked cigarette. Just a few years ago, it was closed for economic reasons.
- This is going to be the first in a series about Nuclear Power. Today, I’ll talk about Nuclear Reactors and the basics.
8. Taiwan Semi Monthly Tracker Red Flags Double MoM In September 2024
- Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month earlier
- Companies with a strong exposure to the AI Acceleration market are on track for strong revenue growth YoY in 2024. ASPEED is on track to double revenues this year.
- For many of the remainder, what tepid growth they had been experiencing may be starting to stall. Watch this space.
9. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Elevated Range; ASE Short Interest Spikes Higher
- TSMC: +18.6% Premium; Spread Has Returned to Previous Elevated Trading Range
- UMC: +1.5% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Shorting the Spread
- ASE: +4.2% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level
10. Memory Monitor: Nanya Results Miss; Highlights Weakness in Non-AI Demand
- Nanya Tech’s 3Q24 results missed expecations by a wide margin, coming in with a net loss instead of the consensus expectation for a profit.
- Nanya highlighed weakness in non-AI end applications for memory and cut its 2024E Capex guidance by nearly 25%, signaling caution towards the current market cycle.
- While the company’s new DDR5 capacity ramp-up should support stronger margins into 2025E, Nanya has yet to show a signifcant margin upturn in the cycle.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Rigaku Holdings IPO – Upside Remains Attractive
- Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is looking to raise up to US$756m in its Japan IPO.
- Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.
- In our earlier notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance and discussed our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we look at Rigaku’s valuation at the final indicative range.
2. Tokyo Metro IPO Valuation Analysis
- Tokyo Metro set the IPO price range at 1,100 to 1,200 Yen per share. At the top end of the range, Tokyo Metro would raise 349 billion yen ($2.35 billion).
- Our base case valuation of Tokyo Metro is implied target price of 1,178 yen per share. This is within the top end of the IPO price range (1,200 yen).
- Given the lack of upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a Negative view of this IPO.
3. Hyundai Motor India Sets IPO Price Range
- Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) has set an IPO price range of 1,865 to 1,960 rupees per share, aiming for a valuation as high as US$19 billion.
- Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) is selling a 17.5% stake in Hyundai Motor India in this public offering. Hyundai Motor India IPO is scheduled to trade starting 22 October.
- Our updated base case valuation of Hyundai Motor India is market cap of US$19.7 billion based on P/E of 25.9x our estimated net profit of 64.1 billion INR.
4. USS (4732 JP) – Small Offering on ‘Growth Darling’ – Buyback Offsets 50%
- Ubiquitous used car auction house USS Co Ltd (4732 JP) today announced MUFJ Bank’s Retirement Benefit Trust account would sell its 3.5% stake in an offering.
- Given how much cash the company has and how little cross-holding there is, this seems a bit odd, but they are doing a buyback for half the offer.
- Small offer. Low ADV count. Well-liked by numerous foreign active holders. This should get taken easily.
5. Hyundai Motor India IPO – RHP Updates, Valuation Getting Tricky
- Hyundai Motor (005387 KS) is looking to raise around US$3.3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
- HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
- In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about its RHP updates and valuations.
6. Hyundai Motor India IPO: Analysis of Latest Financials Signal Challenging Year Ahead
- After 3 years of strong revenue and profits growth, Hyundai Motor India is likely to face a challenging year ahead based on the analysis of 1QFY2025 financials provided in RHP.
- Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)‘s strong exports growth in FY2025 will not offset the weakness in domestic sales. This could result in low single-digit revenue growth for the year.
- Increased royalty costs starting in FY2025, coupled with impact of lower cash reserves after special dividend paid out to parent will likely compress profit margins compared to the previous year.
7. Tokyo Metro IPO – Will Price at the Top, but Isn’t Particularly Cheap
- Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)‘s shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.4bn in its Japan IPO.
- Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.
8. Akeso Placement – Opportunistic Raise, past Deal Record Has Been Mixed but Relative Size Is Small
- Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) is looking to raise around US$200m from its primary placement. Proceeds from the placement will be used for R&D.
- Past deals in the name haven’t done well recently but the shares have been doing well and the deal size remains small.
- In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
9. CR Beverage IPO: Valuation First-Look
- China Resources Beverage (CRB HK), China’s largest purified drinking water company, is premarketing an HKEx to raise US$0.5-1 billion.
- We previously discussed the IPO in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case and CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case.
- In this note, we present our forecasts and examine CR Beverage’s potential valuation range for the first time.
10. Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
- Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is Japan’s leading manufacturer of X-ray analysis, measurement, and testing instruments. It is seeking to raise up to US$737 million.
- We previously discussed the IPO in Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
- In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Rigaku is attractively valued at the IPO price compared to peer multiples.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. 7&I Results and Plans – The Good, The Bad, The Ugly, The Respectable, Unfortunate, and Encouraging
- H1 sales were GOOD. H1 earnings were BAD. New forecasts are UGLY. The CVS initiatives are RESPECTABLE, but US CVS market environment UNFORTUNATE. The creation of the new Holdco ENCOURAGING.
- The Couche-Tard Bid? That’s SEPARATE. Confidential. But three weeks after receiving the new proposal, it hasn’t been publicly rejected. So that’s a thing.
- 7&i is progressing with its Standalone Plan, as it should, because ACT’s bid is more a show of faith for discussions. The York Holdings structure is INTERESTING.
2. Revised Couche-Tard Bid for 7&I and a Flurry of News Items Ahead of Earnings
- This AM, partway through the morning session, Bloomberg carried an article saying Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) had upped its bid for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) to US$18.19/share.
- The stock popped, then faded sharply. Near and after the close we got more headlines. Some of these preview tomorrow’s earnings report. Some preview the restructuring announcements.
- The Nikkei comment regarding an earnings shortfall vs Plan suggests weaker US convenience store sales and consumer footfall are to blame. Details will matter. But I’d buy dips.
3. Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger Is a Done Deal
- Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) all-scrip merger is set at an exchange ratio of 0.62x.
- The merger is conditional on the GJTA/Haitong shareholder vote, which is low risk. Regulatory approvals are a formality as they involve two entities with SOE backgrounds.
- The share exchange ratio is attractive compared to historical price ratios and precedent transactions. The recent material re-rating of peers is irrelevant to the vote as the offer is all-scrip.
4. Guotai Junan (2611 HK)/Haitong (6837 HK)’s Merger: A Win For H-Shareholders
- A month after China’s leading state-backed brokerages, Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK), announced an intention to merge, we have a firm deal.
- Via a share swap, each Haitong H share may be exchanged for 0.62 H shares of GJS. A similar ratio is in place for the As. Cash options are afforded
- Conditions include GJS and Haitong shareholder approval; plus the usual suspects on the regulatory front. The key risk, as with TCM (570 HK)‘s Offer, is one of timing.
5. 7-Eleven Corporation: A Clear Strategy for Long-Term Value, Founding Family Return to Super-Stores
- Seven & I released 1H24 earnings today as well as details on planned restructuring of its business. Results included some one-off items hitting operating profit as well as lower footfall.
- The bigger news was the plan to hive off the non-CVS retail operations into a new company, York Holdings, leaving a newly named 7-Eleven Corporation running CVS globally.
- Unusually, Seven also mentioned the possibility of new strategic partners investing in York, including even the “original founding families”, suggesting one way of holding on to control.
6. MBK Rules Out Further Tender Price Hike for Korea Zinc, Game Plans Shift
- MBK’s strategy is clear: they believe they have the upper hand with the current price level and are optimistic about a favorable ruling on the second injunction.
- All eyes are on Choi to raise the price by this Friday, the 11th, before the deadline, especially with the FSS’s scrutiny looming.
- If that happens, MBK will likely go all-in on the second injunction whose hearing is on the 18th. Choi raising the price this Friday won’t significantly boost Korea Zinc’s stock.
7. HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Midea Group (300 HK) To Be Added in December; Stock Connect Next Week
- There were only 13 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in the third quarter of the year.
- Of those stocks, we only see Midea Group (300 HK) having a chance of being added to the HSCI in December.
- Midea Group (300 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect next week after the price stabilisation period has ended.
8. Shin Kong and Taishin – There’s a Good Value Swap Trade To Do Here
- Media reports indicate that the shareholder base of Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) have approved their merger.
- Shin Kong meeting results were public just before the market closed. The results from Taishin were known earlier. The market and spread were un-moved. If anything, things widened a little.
- Next, the two companies try to get fair Trade Commission, FSC, and Exchange approval to join to become Taishin Shin Kong FHC. And there’s a good trade to do here.
9. Hyundai Motor India: Index Entry Timing for India’s Biggest IPO
- Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR 279bn (US$3.3bn) of stock at a valuation of up to INR 1,593bn (US$19bn).
- The anchor allocations will be completed early next week, and the stock is expected to start trading on 22 October.
- The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances should take place in February and June next year.
10. Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Pressure Mounts with a Couche-Tard Revised Offer
- In response to media reports, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) confirmed receiving a revised non-binding proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN).
- The rumoured revised offer is US$18.19, a 22.4% premium to the initial US$14.86 offer. The revised terms are attractive vs precedent transactions and analyst price targets.
- The Board would cite regulatory concerns and the revised offer’s implied discount compared to peer multiples. At tomorrow’s results, the Board must present a credible alternative value generation path.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. HK/CHINA: Market Pullback and Investors’ Cognitive Dissonance
- The investment community’s response to the historic rallies in HK and China markets over the last couple of weeks unsurprisingly continues to be pessimistic.
- China’s objective of changing market sentiment is beginning to bear fruit as mainland investors open stock accounts at a record pace. Household wealth has increased by 20T yuan last month.
- Technical market indicators point to continued high volatility during this leg of the secular bull market.
2. Stay Calm and Don’t Panic! Overbought Conditions Meet an Overhyped Meeting.
- A correction was natural after the fast, strong move up
- Any detailed fiscal stimulus plan will come from the State Council or the MoF
- Capital market reforms moving in the right direction with continued focus on consumption.
3. HK/China: THE BIG SHORT (SQUEEZE)
- Although the tech sector in Hong Kong has surged over the last couple of weeks there appears to be minimal short covering in US-listed China tech names.
- The performance of the “Magnificent 5” China tech names has led the rally as we outlined in Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta .
- The combination of of large outstanding short positions and a significant underweight of HK/China in international funds will lead to further upside in the tech sector.
4. Positioning Watch: Hedge Funds Caught in the China Storm, While Retail Investors Keep Piling In
- Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.
- What a week it has been in global macro once again, with Chinese equities collapsing earlier this week after the Chinese stimulus frenzy fizzled out.
- However, we are now starting to hear that Chinese authorities are taking matters seriously, planning a new round of stimulus on the 12th of October.
5. Steno Signals #120 – Liquidity and rate cuts are incoming in an already OK economy
- Just a few hours after the release of a much stronger-than-expected jobs report, Goolsbee of the FOMC highlighted the risk of undershooting inflation in the US.
- While Goolsbee is a dovish, soft-leaning member of the committee, it goes to show that you don’t turn around a supertanker like the Fed just because the NFP printed a bit better than expected.
- The Fed has set a direction, and it will take a lot to convince them not to continue cutting interest rates back toward neutral, around 3%.
6. Ministry of Finance Press Conference – First Take
- Heavyweights attended as per previous conferences. Finance Minister (FM) Lan Foan and his three deputies
- Economists’ and market expectations damped down to RMB 1.5 – 2 Trillion in stimulus.
- Some major positive points we believe, but will be a disappointment to some
7. China: Lessons from the 1997-98 Asian Crisis
- Overall, the warning from slow real credit growth on reduced credit supply and demand is the main lesson from the Asia crisis 1997-98.
- China High FX reserves; low borrowing overseas and dominance of domestic investors in Yuan markets argues against a currency crisis.
- Asia widespread banking crisis are also unlikely to repeat in China, though we see growing stress among rural banks that in the worst case could be a rural banking crisis.
8. China Economics: Is Beijing Finally Abandoning Policy Inaction?
- Beijing’s latest policy announcements show that it is no longer content with a managed slowdown. They are now committed to more energetic policy support for the economy.
- Given the slowdown’s entrenched roots, partly due to Beijing’s prior reluctance, we do not think that the current package alone will turn things around.
- But with Beijing taking the cyclical slump more seriously, further support measures are likely, which, cumulatively, may be sufficient to stabilize short-term economic conditions.
9. Examining the Bear Case for China
- Change in strategy by the Chinese authorities mean this is more than a trade
- Sentiment, valuations and positioning are still supportive despite the rally
- Overbought conditions in the very short-term and the technical picture is mixed
10. Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 11 Oct 2024
- China’s economic policy remains focused on investment, with low expectations for a significant stimulus from the Ministry of Finance.
- International reserves are generally increasing across Asia, supporting currency appreciation, except for Indonesia.
- Japan’s recent data shows rising cash earnings but declining real wages and household spending, highlighting concerns in the real economy.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Back Below 15%; ASE Short Interest Surging
- TSMC: +14.2% Premium; Can Consider Going Long at Current Level
- UMC: +1.8% Premium; The ADR Headroom Has Decreased Yet Again
- ASE: +5.4% Premium; Short Interest Surging for The Local Shares
2. Ibiden (4062 JP): Once Again a Long-Term Buy
- Sales, profits and the share price are bottoming out and good 1Q results make FY Mar-25 guidance look conservative.
- Demand for advanced packaging should drive recovery, with the operating margin regaining its previous peak in three or four years.
- Management’s long-term guidance implies a decline in the projected P/E ratio from 26x to 10X by FY Mar-28, but even 15x would make the shares an attractive investment.
3. The Cerebras IPO Stucture Sucks
- I’m not going to write about the technical side at all, as I expect Dylan Patel’s team at SemiAnalysis to do a much better job than I can do alone.
- However, I want to note some of the funniest aspects because landmines are everywhere for this IPO. Of course, it’s driven by G42, but it’s much worse than you think. Here’s the prelim S-1.
- G42 is pretty much the only customer.
4. Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Key IPhone Suppliers Didn’t Rally With Apple; Opportunity for Rebound?
- Key iPhone components suppliers’ share prices have substantially underperformed Apple, particularly Largan Precision, Genius Electronic Optical, and Zhen Ding.
- There are reasons for iPhone 16 upgrade optimism. We also note that key suppliers failed to rally with Apple shares post-Fed rate cut.
- Apple suppliers’ 2025E forecasts haven’t fallen much so far, despite the negative stock market reaction. If negative iPhone 16 reports prove exaggerated, Largan, Genius, and Zhen Ding could rebound.
5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Shifting AR Strategy After Meta Orion Showcase; Apple Supply Chain Monitor
- Apple Set to Launch iPhone SE 4 and Updated iPad Air in Early 2025: Key Developments to Watch
- META’s Orion AR Glasses: Next Major Computing Platform After the Smartphone?
- Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Key IPhone Suppliers Didn’t Rally With Apple; Opportunity for Rebound?
6. GlobalFoundries. Share Price Down 17% Below IPO Price & Down 30% Since July. But Why?
- Tier 2 foundry revenue recovery is taking far longer than most expected.
- Globalfoundries 2024 CapEx is less than one tenth of what SMIC is spending. Even Hua Hong is spending more. This makes investors nervous.
- Globalfoundries CapEx strategy is a pragmatic one and will pay dividends in the years to come
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Tokyo Metro IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
- Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)‘s shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.3bn in its Japan IPO.
- Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.
2. Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
- Tokyo Metro (9023 JP), a mass transit operator, is seeking to raise up to US$2.3 billion. Pricing is on 15 October, and the listing is on 23 October.
- We previously discussed the IPO in Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
- In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Tokyo Metro is attractively valued at the IPO price compared to peer multiples.
3. Tokyo Metro IPO – Peer Comparison – Pre-COVID to 1Q25
- Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)‘s shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.3bn in its Japan IPO.
- Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.
4. Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case
- Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is Japan’s leading manufacturer of X-ray analysis, measurement and testing instruments. It is seeking to raise up to US$760 million.
- In Japan, Rigaku’s XRD (X-ray diffraction) has a high market share of 75%. Around 70% of its revenue is derived from customers outside Japan.
- The bull case rests on high customer switching costs, peer-leading revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, FCF generation, and low leverage.
5. Rigaku IPO – Peer Comparison – Compensating for Smaller Scale with Better Growth and Margins
- Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is looking to raise US$762m in its Japan IPO.
- Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.
- In our earlier notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.
6. K Bank IPO – Should Price Below Its Range
- K Bank (279570 KS) plans to raise up to US$740m in its upcoming South Korean IPO.
- K Bank is one of three Internet-only banks in Korea. It provides a full range of commercial banking products and services.
- In our previous note, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison. In this note, we will talk about valuations.
7. Swiggy Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Swiggy (1255298D IN) Swiggy is looking to raise about US$1.25bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, Citi, Jefferies, Avendus, JPM, BofA and ICICI.
- Swiggy Limited (Swiggy) is a business to commerce (B2C) marketplace company offering users a platform for ordering grocery and household items (Instamart) and food delivery, through its on-demand delivery network.
- The platform can also be used to make restaurant reservations (Dineout), event bookings (SteppinOut), product pick-up/drop-off services (Genie) and other hyperlocal commerce activities (Swiggy Minis).
8. China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO – Updated Thoughts on Valuation
- China Resources Beverage (CRB HK) is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
- In our earlier notes, we talked about the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we will relook at valuations post its PHIP updates.
9. China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Revenue Slowing, Margins Growing
- China Resources Beverage (CRB HK) is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
- In our earlier notes, we talked about the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations. In this note, we will look at updates from its most recent filings.
10. Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bear Case
- Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is Japan’s leading manufacturer of X-ray analysis, measurement and testing instruments. It is seeking to raise up to US$760 million.
- In Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
- The bear case rests on weakening forward growth indicators, China revenue risk, rising cash conversion cycles, mid-tier FCF margin and large post-IPO share overhang.