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Apr 13
0

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Apr 13, 2025

By | Tech Hardware and Semiconductor
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.

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1. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs!

By Patrick Liao

  • We aim at nearly 0% growth QoQ for Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)‘s revenue in 2Q25, but US tariff can be a changing factor since April, 2025.
  • Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission is announcing on April 6th, 2025 with three temporary methods to prevent a sudden slump of Taiwan stock market today.  
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is taking about 39.2% of Taiwan stock market value, which is the single largest stock in Taiwan.  

2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Near Short Level; ASE & ChipMOS Spreads Good Short Levels

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC: +18.9% Premium; Soon at a Good Level to Short the Spread
  • ASE: +6.5% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Trading Range Breakdown
  • ChipMOS: +6.6% Premium; 2% And Higher Good Level to Short the Spread

3. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

By Patrick Liao

4. TSMC Q125 Earnings Preview

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • TSMC reported March 2025 revenues of NT$285.96 billion, up 10% MoM and up 46.5% YoY.
  • Revenue for January through March 2025 totaled NT$839.25 billion, an increase of 41.6% YoY.
  • At the forecasted exchange rate of NT$32.8 to the US$, this translates into Q125 revenues of $25.58 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint of $25.4 billion
Apr 13
0

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Apr 13, 2025

By | Equity Capital Markets
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Suzuki Motor Placement – Not the Best Time for a US$1.15bn Deal. It Will Be a Long Week.

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) and Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) aim to raise around US1.15bn (including over-allotment) via selling around 5% of Suzuki Motor (7269 JP).
  • While Suzuki doesn’t have much direct exposure to the US markets, its shares have still corrected in line with other auto players.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

2. Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 95.7 million shares (110.1 million including overallotment), worth around US$1.1 billion (US$1.3 billion including overallotment).
  • Suzuki’s goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and 23 April (likely 21 April).

3. Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

By Nicholas Tan, Aequitas Research

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
  • It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.

4. Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
  • In Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, signs of margin pressure, increasing S&M expenses and weakening forward growth indicators.

5. Key Takeaways from the Updated Filing on Hanwha Aero’s Rights Offering

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • Hanwha shot down any merger talks between Hanwha Corp and Hanwha Energy, saying they’re just going to funnel Energy’s cash straight into Hanwha Aero via a third-party allotment.
  • These confirm no price manipulation for Hanwha Corp; Hanwha Energy will inject cash into Aero at market value, likely driving bullish short-term price action for both Hanwha Corp and Aero.
  • Despite tighter arb opportunities, doubts remain whether Hanwha Aero can raise the remaining KRW 1.6 trillion given a volatile market and the tight timeline.

6. Samsung SDI: Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount Lowered by 14% to 1.7 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • Samsung SDI (006400 KS) has lowered the rights offering capital raise amount by 14% to 1.7 trillion won, mainly due to the recent carnage in the global equity markets. 
  • The expected rights offering price has been lowered to 146,200 won, which is 14.9% lower than current price.
  • We remain negative on Samsung SDI’s rights offering capital raise mainly due to shares dilution risk. We also remain concerned that the weak demand for EVs globally could last longer.

7. Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • On 8 April, Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced that it plans to lower its rights offering capital raise amount from 3.6 trillion won to 2.3 trillion won (US$1.6 billion).
  • The remaining 1.3 trillion won will be secured through a third-party allocation paid-in capital increase targeting three companies, including Hanwha Energy, Hanwha Impact Partners, and Hanwha Energy Singapore. 
  • Hanwha Aerospace disclosed today that it expects sales of 30 trillion won (58% higher than consensus) and operating profit of 3 trillion won (20% higher than consensus) in 2025.

8. Chagee Holdings IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • Our base case valuation of Chagee Holdings is target price of $46.7 per share, representing 67% higher than the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share). 
  • Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.4x on our estimated net profit of 2.9 billion RMB in 2025. 
  • We used a very conservative valuation multiple, mainly due to the extremely high macro risks related to the ongoing tariff dispute between China and the United States.

9. Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) IPO: Valuation Upside at Risk

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM, Aequitas Research

  • Duality, a China-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, launched its IPO to raise up to US$200m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • We look at the deal dynamics and latest developments in the biotech sector.
  • The deal initially presented upside for investors but there’s a portion of its valuation now at risk due to the latest development.

10. Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).
  • It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki’s share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.
  • However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.
Apr 13
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Apr 13, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • In early February, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share. They had approached in October 2024, and continued approaches through end-January.
  • Shibaura’s bankers approached Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) in January. Due diligence, then bids. They bid ¥4,600. Not enough said the SC. Then Trump. Then ¥4,400. Now ¥4,500 accepted 9 April.
  • But Trump tariffs relief came 9 April US time. And the Offer Price is below the mid-point of ALL three different financial advisors. I think this is not done yet.

2. Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • Travis Lundy succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated. Do read his note.
  • From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.
  • Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.  

3. HK Merger Arb: Opportunities Amidst the Market Selloff

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • The gross spreads of large HK merger arb situations have increased due to the unfortunate fallout from Trump’s trade war. The HSI closed down 13.2%.
  • We assess the widening spreads of HK’s merger arb situations based on offer structure, preconditions, conditions, and other factors.
  • The deals, ranked in terms of increasing deal risk, are Tam Jai, Soundwill, Vesync, Goldlion, Canvest, ESR, OneConnect, HKBN, and ENN Energy.

4. 7&I (3382) – FY24 Better, FY25 OK, Surprisingly Large Buyback

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Today, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) reported full-year earnings. The FY2025 guidance looks OK. Not overly exciting. Optically, it falls short, but 7&i guidance includes York only for H1. 
  • The basic outlines of strategy in the Presentation are unchanged from the 6 March strategy report. The company seems convinced an IPO of SEI is a good thing. I’m underwhelmed.
  • The company also announced that it would bring forward ¥600bn of its planned 6-year ¥2trln buyback program, and execute it this year. That’s good. 

5. China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Nearly US$22bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs over the last 3 trading days, reversing outflows that started in mid February.
  • Central Huijin has announced that it will be increasing its ETF holdings to maintain smooth operation of China’s capital markets. The rest of the National Team will be buying too.
  • There are multiple implications of the huge ETF creations in a short time frame and a reversal of flows will lead to a reversion in a bunch of trades.

6. Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Limited Index Buying & Weak Markets Could Pressure Stock

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance and Sompo Japan Insurance are looking to offload their entire stakes in Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) by way of a secondary offering.
  • With the size of the secondary offering less than 5% of the number of shares, there could be no index buying in the short-term and that will pressure the stock.
  • If the overallotment option is exercised and the seller of the shares is currently considered as non-float, there could be small passive buying in the short-term.

7. Hong Kong Arbs: (Largely) Immune From Trump Tariffs

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • In Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs, I ran a ruler over the fifteen live deals Down Under, and how they may be affected by the Trump Tariffs.
  • This insight canvasses the ongoing Hong Kong arbs and wording surrounding material adverse changes (MACs). Hong Kong MACs are typically less onerous, and lack specificity, versus Aussie arbs.
  • Although the framework exists for an Offeror to enforce a MAC, I’m not aware of any evidence of this occurring under Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code.

8. Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • The resumption of short selling in Korea came at a good time for investors, giving them some additional tools to manage market volatility.
  • Short interest has increased from 0.17% to 0.23% of market cap for the KOSPI market and from 0.46% to 0.63% for the KOSDAR market.
  • The KOSPI/KOSDAQ ratio has reverted a bit on profit taking, and the forecast index deletions have recovered a bit but should continue to see increase short interest.

9. MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback – Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

10. Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) Gets an NBIO from Ki Corp & PSA

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) was demerged from Abacus Property Group in 2023 and the stock has traded in a range since listing.
  • Now, Ki Corp and Public Storage (PSA US) have made a conditional and non-binding proposal to take Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) private at A$1.47/share.
  • The offer is a 27% premium to the last close of the stock and is higher than the price that the stock has traded at since listing.
Apr 13
0

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Apr 13, 2025

By | Equity Derivatives
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. CSI 300 Index Outlook After Trump’s Threat of 50% Tariff on China

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) was less impacted than other indices by the global sell-off: on Monday it was down only -10% from the recent top.
  • On Monday Donald Trump posted that if China does not withdraw immediately its +34% tariffs increase, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of +50%, effective April 9th!
  • Although the CSI 300 Index is more insulated than other indices from global market volatility, it is not completely immune and remains vulnerable to the impact of US’s tariff threats.

2. Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • From Monday’s gloom to Tuesday’s euphoria, the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) staged one of the strongest rebounds — but tariff risks haven’t gone away. Still there.
  • Here are some tactical analysis and ideas specific for the Nikkei 225 Index to prepare for the key risk ahead: another brutal sell-off.
  • The targets highlighted by our models (below) come with low reversal probabilities — ranging from just 25% to 50% — this is consistent with weak market rebound dynamics.

3. NIFTY Index Rally Outlook After Trump’s Tariffs PAUSE

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) post-crash bounce peaked around 4.4% before stalling—mirroring the fading rebounds seen across global indices.
  • The index has yet to reach levels attractive for shorting, but with two days remaining before the weekend, any positive tariff-related news will push the index towards the targets.
  • This insight highlights key price levels for initiating tactical shorts or exiting longs, depending on the tariffs scenario that, once again, changed dramatically from one day to the next.

4. Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different. UPDATE

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • We revisit key cross-asset signals as traditional safe havens fail to respond in familiar ways.
  • The past 8 days have delivered a combination of asset moves with few, if any,  historical parallels.
  • With trust in U.S. safe haven assets under pressure, we explore emerging themes and ramifications.

5. The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

By Sudarshan Bhandari, Beat the Street

  • The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months
  • The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.
  • With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.

6. Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 01 – 04): Lowest Implied Vol Amid a Global Meltdown

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • Nifty remains the global market with the lowest implied volatility and has been outperforming its peers in this sell off.
  • We assess where Nifty is likely to open on Monday and the expected impact on implied vol and discuss whether hedging should be considered. 
  • We highlight the absence of a flight-to-quality bid in this global meltdown and what that could mean for relative returns vs. the SP500.

7. HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 7-11): Vol Reset, Skew Reprices, and 8,000 Strike in Focus

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • Brutal start to the week, with the holiday-shortened calendar and continued global weakness weighing on Monday’s open.
  • Implied vol surged early, with skew steepening and tail demand reflected in out-of-the-money Put pricing
  • We highlight significant activity at the 8,000 strike and its implications for near-term spot and vol dynamics.

8. Reliance’s Campa Cola Comeback: Disrupting India’s Soft Drink Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari, Beat the Street

  • Reliance Industries (RIL IN) has relaunched Campa Cola with a disruptive INR 10 price tag, targeting Bharat through regional branding, aggressive retail margins, and deep distribution.
  • Campa’s revival is shaking up India’s INR 50,000 crore soft drink market, challenging Pepsi and Coke with rapid share gains and frenzied rural demand.
  • This is not nostalgia, it’s Ambani’s Jio-style FMCG disruption. Expect more brand revivals, deeper pricing wars, and a new cola war driven from the grassroots.

9. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Profit Targets After Q2 Results

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • Mark Chadwick highlighted Fast Retailing (9983 JP) ‘s outlook in 2 recent insights, before and after Q2 earnings: his DCF model for this stock suggests roughly a +13% upside.
  • This week the stock rallied from the crash at the start of the week, closing a bit higher than the previous week (it had closed 1 week down, CC=-1).
  • Assuming the stock may rally further from here, pushed by good Q2 results, let’s have a look to our model to analyze some profit targets.

10. #1 Leadership Bytes(07-Apr-25)

By Sudarshan Bhandari, Beat the Street

Apr 06
0

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Apr 6, 2025

By | Tech Hardware and Semiconductor
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.

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1. Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Delta Thailand Has Dramatically Underperformed Delta Taiwan — Delta Thailand Now Finally Trading at a Less Extreme Level vs. Delta Taiwan
  • Latest Relative Growth Profiles — Delta Taiwan Has Higher Growth Profile in 2025E
  • Even After the Major Pricing Reversion Since Mid-February, Delta Thailand Remains Overvalued Relative to Delta Taiwan

2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Close to Long Level; UMC & ASE Deep Discounts

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC: +14.9% Premium; Spread Has Fallen Close to Long Levels
  • UMC: -2.6% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread
  • ASE: -3.2% Discount; Spread at Extreme Low, Good Level to Go Long

3. Intel Vision: Lip Bu Tan’s First Keynote As Intel CEO

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me the truth
  • I intend to under promise and over deliver. I will not be satisfied until we delight you
  • How long will I stay at Intel? I’m here for as long as it takes

4. Intel’s Annual Shareholder Meeting Proxy Statement Has A Few Interesting Gems

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • We remain steadfast in our belief in our company’s future. That said, there are no quick fixes. We need to demonstrate consistent execution and results over a sustained period. Frank Yeary
  • Intel’s ELT scored themselves a remarkable 29.7 out of 35 for their 2024 “Product Leadership” goal, despite mounting data center market share loss and Gaudi being an abject failure
  • While Pat Gelsinger’s departure from Intel was labelled a “retirement” last December, the Proxy Statement refers to it as a “resignation”. Which was it?

5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Goes ‘Taiwan Speed’ in Arizona; Phison Predicts Edge AI Flash Memory Boom

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC Accelerates U.S. Expansion — New Arizona Fab to Be Built at ‘Taiwan Speed’
  • Phison CEO Sees Decade-Long Boom for NAND Flash as AI Shifts to the Edge
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive 

6. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won’t Be Easy to Happen.

By Patrick Liao

Apr 06
0

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Apr 6, 2025

By | Equity Capital Markets
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
  • CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its recent updates and provide our thoughts on valuations.

2. ECM Weekly (31st Mar 2025) – Xiaomi, NIO, FCT, Gigabyte, DN Sol, Nanshan Al, Zenergy, LXJ, Veeda

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

3. Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO. 
  • According to iResearch, as of December 31, 2024, Chagee was the largest premium freshly made tea drink brand in China by the number of stores.
  • The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.   

4. Wuxi XDC Placement – Following Biologics Playbook, past Deals Have Been Mixed

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$250m via selling around 3.5% stake in WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK).
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

5. Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of China’s Premium Tea Brand

By IPO Boutique, IPO Boutique

  • As of December 31, 2024, their network comprised 6,440 teahouses, including 6,284 located in China.
  • Their net revenues increased by 844% to RMB4,640.2 million in 2023 from RMB491.7 million in 2022. 
  • We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the second half of April.

6. Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Pre-IPO: Valuation and the Trap

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM, Aequitas Research

  • Duality Biotherapeutics, a China-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, plans to raise up to US$250m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • We look at the company’s valuation based on its core products, namely DB-1303, DB-1311, and DB-1305.
  • We highlight key differences between our valuation and the broker valuation guidance.

7. Clearing up FSS Review of Samsung SDI & Hanwha Aerospace: Watch for Ramped-Up Recall Pressure

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • Samsung SDI’s rights offering is locked in and even accelerated. Hanwha Aerospace awaits FSS approval, but a pullback is unlikely, with no major red flags seen by regulators.
  • With a four-week gap, supply pressure eases, reducing overhang concerns. This shift in dynamics impacts stock rights pricing and is key for any arb setup.
  • The wider schedule gap between deals boosts lenders’ flexibility, increasing the likelihood of a stronger share recall. This makes for a solid trade setup, targeting recall-driven price action.

8. Chagee Pre-IPO – Market Leading Growth but Showing Signs of Fatigue

By Nicholas Tan, Aequitas Research

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
  • Chagee is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

9. SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): IPO for Yield Chasers, Traditional Players on the Sidelines

By IPO Boutique, IPO Boutique

  • According to our sources, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed — our sources stated around 5x. 
  • Self-Storage was Monday’s second best performing sub-sector (+1.8%) as the overall REIT sector (+0.7%) slightly outperformed the broader market.
  • While the “typical” IPO investor may not be “enthused”, the timing for this type of deal “may” be ideal for yield-chasers.

10. Maynilad Water Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Key Infrastructure Provider

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) (MWS) is looking to raise at least US$633m in its upcoming Philippines IPO.
  • MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.
Apr 06
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Apr 6, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • For weeks, if not months, the world has been wondering what the “reciprocal tariffs” would be, and what the logic would be behind them.
  • There is talk of VAT, and NTBs, and huge tariff step-ups after quotas are exceeded (US exports of milk and cheese to Canada – high tariffs, but quotas not exceeded).
  • But a quick check of the math on the Trump Executive Order and Annex I tells you the logic is different than what everyone expected. 

2. BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

3. Korea Short Selling: Off to the Races

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Short selling in Korea resumes in a couple of hours. Expect heightened volatility for a few days before things settle down.
  • Foreign investors have increased their holdings over the last five weeks and there could be further buying in select stocks on stock price drops.
  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX has outperformed the KOSDAQ 150 Index, and the forecast index deletes have underperformed the indices indicating that there will be positioning for the short-sell resumption.

4. Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

5. T&D Holdings (8795) – A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Yesterday, post-close, T&D Holdings (8795 JP)  announced ¥40 for 31-Mar-25 FY-end dividend (¥80/yr) and ¥120/share/year in the year to March 2026 on a higher planned payout ratio.
  • The company also announced guidance for Adjusted Profit for 2025 at ¥130bn (up), and guidance for March 2026 at ¥140bn (lower growth than this past year). 
  • They announced the current ¥50bn buyback was 87.5% complete (they have until 13 May to complete) and a new buyback starting 19 May to spend up to ¥100bn over 10.5mos.

6. [Japan Activism] – KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • The difference between an LBO (Leveraged Buy Out) and an MBO (Management Buy Out) is that an MBO is usually just an LBO where the buyers don’t replace the CEO.
  • After 4+mos  of speculation/noise since a Bloomberg article said Topcon was weighing takeover bids, we have a deal. KKR and JIC will buy out Topcon in an “MBO” at ¥3,300/share.
  • Unusually, the lower limit is 50.1%. This is an OK exit for the “Bad Cops” but not a great one. It should be higher. Start delayed for 4 months.

7. Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
  • Kokusai did NOT get added, waiting for a split, an offering, or time to pass. Only one sector change was made. So we see One ADD and One DELETE.
  • The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.

8. ENN Energy (2688 HK): This Is An Avoid

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • Back on the 26th March, ENN Energy (2688 HK) announced a cash/scrip Offer from ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH), its largest shareholder.
  • Investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or one where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name.
  • The Offer pivots on where the newly-listed H-shares trade. The IFA’s assessment on the theoretical value of these H-shares is unrealistic. 

9. Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) Deal Gets FSC Approval – Still A Good Swap

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Late Monday, The Financial Supervisory Commission approved the merger where Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) is to be absorbed by Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT). Announcement here.
  • Yesterday, the chairmen of both Shin Kong and Taishin decided the merger base date, which has been set a bit further out than even I expected, at 24 July 2025.
  • The terms tightened yesterday. There is still a worthwhile switch to be done (or arb if you have cheap borrow), and NEWCO is cheap to peers, STILL.

10. Merger Arb Mondays (31 Mar) – ENN Energy, ESR, Vesync, Seven & I, Topcon, Sinarmas Land, Gold Road

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

Apr 06
0

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Apr 6, 2025

By | Equity Derivatives
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • A recent insight by Brian Freitas signals that BYD (1211 HK)buying from global index trackers is done (more passive buying from HSI/HSCEI trackers may come later this month).
  • As of Tuesday, the stock is currently in the middle of a modest pullback, 1 week down, reached a support area where the probability of a bounce is around 50%.
  • We are at the start of the month, it may be early to benefit from the passive buying discussed by Brian Freitas, however this pullback could support a buy-the-dips strategy.

2. Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • Analysis of the NIFTY, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, KOSPI 200, S&P/ASX 200, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout?
  • As explained in this insight, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can’t predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes.
  • What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal.

3. Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Plays and Skew Top Trades

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
  • With short-term implied volatility below its median, long volatility strategies dominate, with a balanced mix of bullish and bearish positions. 
  • Open interest spread across monthly and quarterly expiries, with some notable strategies taking advantage of longer expiration dates, and a steep negatively sloped skew $475.

4. SP500: Friday Sell-Offs, the VIX, and a Bit of 1987

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • Drops greater than 5% on a Friday are rare, we examine historical returns after such events.
  • We revisit 1987 price action and reconstructed VIX levels to add historical context.
  • With circuit breakers now in place and political volatility elevated, we assess what today’s sell-off might mean for the next trading day.

5. Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different and What It Signals

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • The SP500 and DXY both dropped yesterday—historically an unusual development.
  • We examine the SP500-DXY relationship alongside long-term shifts in capital flow and what this could mean for global markets vs SP500.
  • A distinct performance trend that began in 2009 may now be in the process of reversing.

6. NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / SEBI Intervenes Stalling Expiry Day Shift. IVs Pushed to 1Yr Lows.

By Sankalp Singh, AceGama Advisors

  • SEBI intervenes on constantly changing Option contract specifications. NSE halts expiry day shift indefinitely & awaits clarity from regulator. 
  • IVs slid lower to 11% levels – extended weekend being a primary factor. Risk premia is nearing historically low extremes. “Low & Down” state persists for the Vol-Regime model.
  • Tactical Implications: (1) Scale back Vol harvesting structures as “Low & Down” Vol-state persists. (2) Reverse Calendars for long gamma exposure to upcoming events. Utilize Low IVs & curve Contango.

7. TESLA’S Outlook After Rumors Elon Musk Will Step Back from DOGE

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

8. Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significantly lower market open throughout Asia-Pacific. In the US, S&P 500 futures dropped -3.5%, with the VIX spiking to 23.45.
  • Impact on Japan: Japan faces a 24% tariff, with specific sectors like automobiles hit with 25%. This led to a 4.5% drop in the Nikkei 225, stabilizing at 34,600 (-3.2%).
  • Volatility Increase: The Nikkei 225 VIX index jumped from previous levels in the low 20’s to rise above 38 before retreating to 32.8, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.

9. Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Sticky Implied Vol and a Tactical Hedge Ahead of Tariffs

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • Weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest.
  • Implied vol remained stable, and we discuss why it may be sticky at current levels.
  • With global weakness and the upcoming April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcement, we reiterate a tactical hedge.

10. April Global Macro Volatility: Strong Price and Vol Seasonals

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Global indexes and macro assets.
  • In-Depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price may unfold.
  • We highlight strong seasonal trends in April, with all markets typically rising and realized vol typically coming in below implied.
Apr 01
2
Smartkarma-HarmoniQ

Smartkarma Partners with HarmoniQ Insights to Strengthen Data Offerings and Expand Reach to Systematic and Quant Investors

By | Smartkarma Press Releases

SINGAPORE, 2 April 2025 – Smartkarma, a leading global investment intelligence platform, has announced a partnership with HarmoniQ Insights, a U.S.-based data consultancy led by quant industry veterans William Mann and Debby Goan. This collaboration marks an important step in Smartkarma’s commitment to enhancing its proprietary data offerings and institutional market presence.

The partnership underscores Smartkarma’s focus on providing institutional investors with high-value proprietary datasets that drive smarter decision-making. By leveraging HarmonIQ’s deep industry expertise and experience on the buyside with Tier-1 Quant Investors, Smartkarma aims to deliver enriched data solutions tailored to the evolving needs of professional investors.

Raghav Kapoor, CEO of Smartkarma, commented on the partnership: “HarmoniQ Insights not only strengthens the credibility of our datasets but also brings fresh, market-driven perspectives on how to position and promote them effectively. This collaboration empowers us to better meet the evolving needs of institutional investors with our proprietary, specialist solutions.”

Headquartered in the United States, HarmoniQ Insights specializes in connecting data providers with institutional clients, ensuring seamless access to actionable intelligence. William Mann, Founder of HarmoniQ, added: “Smartkarma’s platform is at the forefront of data-led investment intelligence. We’re excited to collaborate, leveraging our expertise to further elevate the value Smartkarma delivers to its clients worldwide.”

A Partnership Built on Expertise and Innovation

  • Industry Credibility: Led by seasoned quant industry veterans, HarmoniQ brings unparalleled industry knowledge and a deep understanding of institutional data needs.
  • Tailored Solutions: HarmoniQ’s familiarity with Smartkarma’s datasets ensures more targeted and relevant offerings for professional investors.
  • Global Reach: This partnership strengthens Smartkarma’s presence in key markets, particularly among U.S. institutional investors.

The partnership comes at a time when data-driven decision-making is becoming increasingly critical for institutional investors navigating complex markets. By combining Smartkarma’s robust data ecosystem with HarmoniQ’s industry expertise, the collaboration ensures clients have access to the most relevant, high-quality datasets for informed investment strategies.

Smartkarma and HarmoniQ Insights share a commitment to innovation, continuously evolving their offerings to meet the demands of today’s investment landscape. This partnership positions Smartkarma as a leading provider of comprehensive, technology-driven data solutions for institutional investors globally.

For more information about Smartkarma’s data offerings, visit www.smartkarma.com.

About Smartkarma:
Smartkarma is a global investment intelligence platform based in Singapore. It provides institutional investors with actionable insights, high-touch analyst access and specialist data subscriptions to make informed investment decisions. With a focus on innovation and technology, Smartkarma offers a wide range of data solutions and analytics across various sectors, including equities and commodities. Smartkarma Shareholders include the Singapore Exchange (SGX), Enterprise Singapore Seeds Capital,  Peak XV (formerly Sequoia Capital), Wavemaker and Jungle Ventures. Learn more at smartkarma.com.

About HarmoniQ Insights:
HarmoniQ Insights is a U.S.-based data consultancy founded by William Mann and Debby Goan, both formerly on the buyside focused on the intersection of quant research, and strategic business development. Leveraging deep industry expertise and institutional knowledge, HarmoniQ specializes in connecting data providers with institutional clients, offering strategic guidance and innovative go-to-market solutions for data-driven products.

Apr 01
0

Entities 34301-34400

By | Entity Directory
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Schroder Income Growth Fund (SCF LN, SCF.L)
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Schroder Real Estate Investm (SREI LN, SREI.L)
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Schroder Real Return Fund (GROW AU, GROW.AX)
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Schroders PLC (SDR LN, SDR.L)
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Schrodinger (SDGR US, SDGR.O, SDGR)
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Schrole Group (SCL AU, SCL.AX)
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Schuler AG (SCUN GR, SCUGE.MU)
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Schulman (A.) (SHLM US, SHLM.O, SHLM)
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Schultze Special Purpose Acqui (SAMA US, SAMA.OQ, SAMA)
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Schultze Special Purpose Acquisition Corp. II (SAMAU US, SAMAU)
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Schwab 1000 Index ETF (SCHK US, SCHK)
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Schwab 1-5 Year Corporate Bo (SCHJ US, SCHJ.P, SCHJ)
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Schwab 5-10 Year Corporate B (SCHI US, SCHI.P, SCHI)
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Schwab (Charles) (SCHW US, SCHW.N, SCHW)
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Schwab Emerging Markets Equi (SCHE US, SCHE)
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Schwab Fundamental Em L/C (FNDE US, FNDE)
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Schwab Fundamental Intl L/C (FNDF US, FNDF)
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Schwab Fundamental Intl S/C (FNDC US, FNDC)
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Schwab Fundamental U.S. Broad (FNDB US, FNDB.P, FNDB)
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Schwab Fundamental U.S. Large Company Index ETF (FNDX US, FNDX)
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Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small (FNDA US, FNDA)
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Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. (SCHR US, SCHR)
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Schwab International Dividend (SCHY US, SCHY.P, SCHY)
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Schwab International Equity ET (SCHF US, SCHF.P, SCHF)
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Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF (SCHC US, SCHC)
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Schwab Long-Term Us Treasury (SCHQ US, SCHQ.P, SCHQ)
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Schwab Short-Term Us Treas (SCHO US, SCHO)
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Schwab Us Aggregate Bond Etf (SCHZ US, SCHZ)
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Schwab US Broad Market ETF (SCHB US, SCHB.P, SCHB)
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Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD US, SCHD.P, SCHD)
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Schwab US Large-Cap ETF (SCHX US, SCHX.P, SCHX)
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Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth E (SCHG US, SCHG.P, SCHG)
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Schwab Us Large-Cap Value (SCHV US, SCHV)
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Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF (SCHM US, SCHM)
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Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH US, SCHH)
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Schwab US Small-Cap ETF (SCHA US, SCHA.P, SCHA)
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Schwab US TIPS ETF (SCHP US, SCHP.P, SCHP)
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Schweiter Technologies Ag (SWTQ SW, SWTQ.S, SWTQ.SW)
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Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK, 6600.HK)
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Scicom (Msc) (SCIC MK, SCICOM, SCCM.KL, 0099.KL)
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SciDev (SDV AU, SDV.AX)
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Science (SAG LN, SAGS.L, SAG.L)
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Science 37 Holdings (SNCE US, SNCE.OQ, SNCE)
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Science Applications Inte (SAIC US, SAIC.N, SAIC)
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Science Arts Inc (4412 JP, 4412.T)
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Scienjoy Holding Corp (SJ US, SJ.OQ, SJ)
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Scientech Corp (3583 TT, 3583.TW)
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Scientex Bhd (SCI MK, SCIENTX, STIK.KL, 4731.KL)
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Scientific Games Corp A (SGMS US, SGMS.O, SGMS)
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SciGen Ltd (SIE AU, SIE.AX)
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Scigineer Inc (6031 JP, 6031.T)
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Scilex Holding (SCLX US, SCLX.OQ, SCLX)
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Scimee Sci & Tech (300425 CH, 300425.SZ)
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Scinex Corp (2376 JP, 2376.T)
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Scinopharm Taiwan (1789 TT, 1789.TW)
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Scintronix Corp (SCIN SP, T20.SI)
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Sci Pharmtech (4119 TT, 4119.TW)
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Sciplay Corporation (SCPL US, SCPL)
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Sciquest Inc (SQI US, SQI)
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SciSparc (SPRC US, SPRC.OQ, SPRC)
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Scisys Group PLC (SSY LN, SSY.L)
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Scivision Biotech (1786 TT, 1786.TW)
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Scivita Medical Technology (SMT HK)
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Scomi Energy Services (SES MK, SCOMIES, SCES.KL, 7045.KL)
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Scomi Engineering (SEB MK, SCOMIEN, SMNG.KL, 7366.KL)
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Scomi Group Bhd (SGB MK, SCOMI, SCOI.KL, 7158.KL)
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S Connect (096630 KS, A096630, 096630.KQ)
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Scooters India (SCTR IN, 505141, SCOO.BO, SCOOTER.BO)
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Scope Industries (SCP MK, SCOPE, SCPE.KL, 0028.KL)
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Scopus Biopharma (SCPS US, SCPS.PK, SCPS)
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Scorpion Minerals (SCN AU, SCN.AX)
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Scorpio Tankers (STNG US, STNG.N, STNG)
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Scorpius Holdings (SCPX US, SCPX.A, SCPX)
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SCOR SE (SCR FP, SCOR.PA, SCR.PA)
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ScotGems Plc (SGEM LN, SGEM.L)
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Scotgold Resources (SGZ AU, SGZ.AX)
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Scottish American Inv Comp (SCAM LN, SCAM.L)
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Scottish Investment Trust Plc (SCIN LN, SCIN.L)
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Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT LN, SMT.L)
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Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies Trust PLC (SST LN, SST.L)
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Scottish Pacific (SCO AU, SCO.AX)
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Scottish Salmon Co Plc (SSC NO, SSC.OL)
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Scotts Miracle-Gro Co Cl A (SMG US, SMG.N, SMG)
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Scott Technology (SCT NZ, SCT.NZ)
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Scout24 AG (G24 GR, G24N.DE, G24.F)
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Scout Security Ltd (SCT AU, SCT.AX)
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scPharmaceuticals Inc (SCPH US, SCPH.O, SCPH)
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ScPrime (SCP CURNCY, SCP-USD)
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Screaming Eagle Acquisition (SCRMU US, SCRMU.OQ, SCRMU)
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Screaming Eagle Acquisition (SCRM US, SCRM)
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SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP, 7735.T)
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Scripps Networks Inter Cl A (SNI US, SNI.O, SNI)
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Scroll Corp (8005 JP, 8005.T)
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Scsk Corp (9719 JP, 9719.T)
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Scud Group Ltd (1399 HK, 1399.HK)
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Scully Royalty (SRL US, SRL.N, SRL)
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Sculptor Acquisition Corp I (SCUA US)
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Sculptor Acquisition I (SCUA/U US, SCUA.U, SCUAU.N, SCUAU)
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Sculptor Capital Management In (SCU US, SCU.N, SCU)
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Sculture International Holdings (1255 HK, 1255.HK)
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