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Marlon Marcos

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 9, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Marko Kolanovic Is Back With a Warning for Stocks

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Recent tech stock sell-off causing market volatility
  • Limited contagion to broader market, some stocks even up
  • Potential for more impact as uncertainty around DeepSeek continues

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


2. Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro.
  • Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” That, in itself, says a lot about sentiment.
  • I’m currently making my way home from the U.S. after meeting with a ton of investors over the past three days, and I’ve come away with the view that a weaker USD is now the pain trade.

3. The Tariff Effect: Economic Uncertainty Unpacked | The New Barbarians #006

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Equities opened down, with futures showing a decline across various markets
  • January saw significant gains in gold and Bitcoin, outperforming equities
  • European stocks surged 8.2% in a month, surprising many investors and challenging traditional market outlooks

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


4. The Tariff Announcement That Shocked Financial Markets

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, 10% tariffs on oil and China
  • Tariffs are paid by US consumers at the point of entry, not fully equating to a 25% price increase
  • Uncertainty about impact of tariffs on prices of goods like maple syrup and avocados

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


5. Can the Stock Market Vigilantes Save the Bull?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • The current environment suggests that traders should adopt a strategy of “buy the dip and sell the rips”.
  • The combination of negative surprises during earnings season and potential bearish policy announcements when the market is overbought will put downward pressure on stock prices.
  • On the other hand, investors should trust the stock market vigilantes to activate the Trump Put in the event of a market downdraft. 

6. China-U.S. Trade War Next To Talks?

By Alex Ng, Fortress Hill Advisors

  • Negotiating will likely start in spring, but negotiating will be tough as the U.S. wants a phase 2 deal with new objectives to boost U.S. exports and penalties
  • China will likely be quick to make concessions on needed agricultural imports and illegal Fentanyl from China, but slow to concede on the idea of penalties. 
  • It will be a volatile road to an eventual deal in late H1 or early H2.    

7. A Long-Term Sell Signal?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • Breadth indicators are flashing early cautionary signals for U.S. equities, but these signals can often be early in calling a major market top.
  • A review of other indicators on different investing dimensions are either benign or cautious.
  • We interpret this as the warning of a possible major market top in Q1 or Q2. Investors should monitor risk appetite indicators for tactical signs to turn cautious.

8. The Drill – Oil down and precious metals UP.. The short USD trade in Geopolitics

By Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research

  • Welcome to this week’s The Drill, which I will be authoring by myself moving forward.
  • This means a continued focus on commodities and energy, but also an increased dosage of geopolitics as many of you have wished for.
  • Each week, we’ll cover a couple of key topics as well as provide you with a sneak peak into our data models and what they have to say on commodities.

9. Global FX & Equities: Dollar/ equity linkages and the upcoming tariff announcement

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

  • Concerns about the end of US equity exceptionalism could lead to potential weakness in the dollar
  • Deepseek model challenges US exceptionalism in tech and could impact equity markets
  • Despite volatility, US equity market still strong, but potential for more bouts of volatility ahead

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


10. The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Alfamart’s Guidance, Indonesia’s Pragmatism, and Thai Banks

By Angus Mackintosh, CrossASEAN Research


Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 2, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop


1. How Oaktree’s Howard Marks Spots a Market Bubble

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Howard Marks correctly called the dot com bubble in the early 2000s
  • The 1990s were a placid period for credit investors but a hot time for equity investors
  • Being too far ahead of your time in predicting market trends can be painful and indistinguishable from being wrong

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


2. Steno Signals #182 – Cutting Through the Trump Noise: A Massive Uniform Move Is Happening

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
  • We are now at the final innings of the inauguration week, and oh boy did it surprise and entertain right about everyone (including me).
  • From full-blown tariffs from the get-go being the base case, a Trump meme coin being launched into the week and a government sponsored Bitcoin reserve (or at least a clear reference to the crypto space during his first week) to barely any mentioning of crypto, no immediate tariffs on China and very accommodative policies on the fiscal side, which makes the 3% deficit target proposed by Scott Bessent look unrealistic at best.

3. Ep. 252: Jay Pelosky on How US Equities Could Underperform Rest of the World

By Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez, Macro Hive

  • Jay Peloski, founder of TPW Advisory and former top-ranked analyst at Morgan Stanley, discusses the tripolar framework of regional integration and competition between Europe, Asia, and the Americas
  • Europe faces challenges with common taxation and revenue creation, Asia is increasingly integrated around China, and the Americas have not fully leveraged North America integration and engagement with South America
  • Regional competition is seen in key areas such as AI, climate, and defense, with each region vying for economic influence and competitive advantage amid global shifts and challenges

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


4. Generative AI, LLMs, & the Evolution of Product Teams w/ Dr. Thársis Souza | The New Barbarians #005

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Mark has 15 years of experience delivering new technology products in a variety of companies and holds a PhD in Computer Science from UCL University of London
  • He is the author of the book Taming LLMs and the creator of Podcastify AI
  • Mark recapped recent events in the markets, discussed taming LLMs and creating robotic podcasts, and highlighted the success of Bitcoin ETFs

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


5. The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here

By Ulrik Simmelholt, Steno Research

  • Let’s start with DeepSeek.
  • The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted.
  • With barriers to entry for AI development rapidly lowering and efficiency gains fueling greater demand rather than less, it seems inevitable that this trend will reshape the AI landscape.

6. Overview #14 – The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment

By Rikki Malik

  • A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
  • The narrative change around US tech spending on AI has potentially positive implications for Chinese technology shares
  • India sets the stage for interest rate cuts and the budget cuts taxes for the middle classes to boost consumption 

7. EM Fixed Income Focus: What we know (or don’t) after Week 1

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

  • EM markets reacting to executive orders and remarks from President Trump, particularly focused on tariffs
  • EM currencies have shown some strength due to lack of tariff implementation so far
  • Market relief since the inauguration, but uncertainty remains around tariff policy and other domestic issues

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


8. Mexico faces a deficit – and Donald Trump

By Behind the Money, Behind the Money

  • President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October, inheriting a delicate economic situation from her popular predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
  • Many lower income people in Mexico are benefiting from higher wages and government social programs, but others, particularly middle and higher income earners, feel stagnant economic growth and uncertainty due to US tariff threats.
  • The relationship between Mexico and the US, along with Sheinbaum’s plans and the ability to attract outside investment, will be key factors in Mexico’s economic growth under her leadership.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


9. Get Ready For Another Shock to Housing Affordability

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Inflation, particularly in housing costs, has been a big theme in recent American life.
  • Despite the Fed raising interest rates to fight inflation, rent price growth has been moderating.
  • Multifamily housing developers are feeling the strain of higher interest rates and a lack of supply due to decreased activity in the market.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


10. The Shift Of Supply Chains From China To Southeast Asia

By ASEAN Exchanges, ASEAN Exchanges

  • China’s rise as a global manufacturing hub was fueled by WTO accession in 2001, supported by export-friendly policies, low-cost labor, and rapid infrastructure development.
  • A 1994 currency devaluation and a shift to value-added goods boosted productivity as labor costs increased.
  • Since the mid-2010s, rising costs and geopolitical factors have driven supply chains to Southeast Asia.