Marlon Marcos

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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By Alastair Newton, Heteronomics

1. US vs EU: Worse to Come

Policymakers and investors are not fully recognizing the threat posed by the US in response to ‘Liberation Day’.
The threat level has increased as ‘transactional Trump’ is replaced by a new president.
The new president aims to return the US to a perceived golden era in his mission to ‘make America great again’.

2. Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” – Part 2: Trading Opportunities.

By Rikki Malik

Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.
This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.
Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.

3. US Bear Market: THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT!

The US dollar and US treasuries are no longer a safe haven in the wake of the US market sell off.
Tariffs undercut primary reasons for foreigners to buy and hold US dollar assets, including recycling of export earnings by foreign countries. Lower consumption and higher inflation are additional headwinds.
Foreign holdings of US stocks and debt will decline as the US isolates itself from the global trading system.

4. UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs

By Manu Bhaskaran, Centennial Asia Advisors

The UK output destroyed by reciprocal US tariffs is only partly due to the direct impact of the new 10% rate (worth ~0.2% of GDP) and generally weaker US prospects (0.1%).
Global GDP growth is depressed by this policy, indirectly destroying demand for UK exports from elsewhere (0.2%), especially if countries harm themselves by retaliating.
An overall 0.6% GDP hit has two-sided risks and a skew lowered by likely negotiations. Fears of items dumping into the UK market are overblown excuses for protectionism.

5. Trump, Tariffs, and Trade Wars

President Trump’s radical tariff measures will usher in a new era of greater volatility, slower growth, financial stresses and geopolitical downsides.
The coming weeks will be marked by uncertainty as the domestic political pushback in the US interacts unpredictably with retaliation by trading partners and the economic fallout.
In Asia, monetary easing can mitigate only part of the impact. Fiscal policy is needed but is constrained in most of the region, given pre-existing debt and deficits.

6. Smart Coffee: 7 April 2025

By Jay Cameron, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

An interesting day for the market after the announcement of tariffs previous day.
When analyzing this market move, it may help to look at the countries affected by tariffs in terms of the amount of tariffs (fig. 1, fig 2.). vs the movement on the main indices in that country.
Many impacted indices are 5% to 10% in the red in April as a result, including the EU indices.

7. A Big Bear, or Just A Plain Vanilla Correction?

The latest Trump tariff announcements have sparked a risk-off stampede.
Even though the macro and fundamental backdrop is deteriorating, sellers are becoming exhausted and a relief rally should materialize in the coming week.
Both the top-down outlook and technical structure of the stock market argue for a bear market, and any rally should be interpreted as a countertrend move.

8. Steno Signals #192 – A March 2020 style reset. Is this a liquidity event?

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen, if I am allowed to say that after a horrendous week in markets.
Markets are heading into a tense week as the U.S.-China trade tensions escalate and Europe appears poised to introduce digital tariffs — likely targeting the Magnificent 7 — in response to Trump’s proposed tariff agenda.
By late Friday, the U.S. dollar surged sharply, accompanied by early signs of capitulation in traditional safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries.

9. Crafting Investment Policy in an America First World

If Trump succeeds in his America First policy, the new winners will be America’s suppliers of labour. The obvious loser under Trump’s win-lose worldview will be the suppliers of capital.
The investment environment in an America First world will be riskier. Expect more sovereign defaults and restructurings.
The benchmark portfolio under the new regime should be a basket of global assets.

10. UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing

Fundamental causes should not be assigned to UK GDP surging far beyond consensus expectations again in February, despite the notability of Q1 growth tracking 0.7% q-o-q.
Residual seasonality has dominated the post-pandemic growth profile, and the recent resilience merely matches it. Stagnation for the rest of the year is the consequence.
Disruptive and volatile US trade policy will also depress the underlying economic trend beneath the spurious seasonals. We now bake both more fully into our modal forecasts.

Apr 06

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Apr 6, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. HEM: Fear of Fear Itself

US surveys indicate a fear of tariffs and DOGE, leading to a negative sentiment.
Despite these fears, resilient labour markets suggest that concerns may be exaggerated.
There is an expectation of reversing unnecessary easing in 2026 due to high underlying price and wage inflation.

2. US Tariff Impact Estimates

By Priyanka Kishore, Asia Decoded

New US tariffs ignored any notion of reciprocity, reaching shockingly substantial sizes. However, the UK was relatively fortunate in landing on the 10% minimum rate.
Repeating 2024’s imports would raise $577bn in tariff revenue, which is worth ~3% of consumption. 70% pass-through to prices would add 2% to the level over 1-2 years.
Negotiations need to conclude rapidly to avoid these front-loaded price rises. The EU’s likely retaliations would magnify its pain, but the US is the biggest stagflationary loser.

3. Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Hit Asia Hard

The scale and scope of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs has exceeded our expectations.
The growth outlook has unambiguously worsened across the board and will dominate inflation in Asia this year.
We expect Asian policy rates to be reduced by an average of 100 basis points in 2025.

4. Tariff Transition Smoothing

President Trump’s tariffs embed structural cost pressures, compounding supply chain changes and creating a stagflationary shock central banks cannot offset.
Potential retaliation risks raising inflation expectations, constraining the extent to which monetary policy can smooth transitional pains through temporary easing.
We still believe any dovish policy imperative is likely to be short, shallow, and reversed, with central banks forced to remain flexible and focused on shorter horizons again.

5. TRUMP’S TARIFFICATION: The Market’s Willful Ignorance

Liberation Day marks the beginning of the Tariffication of the global trading system. The complex web of supply chains will be forced to detangle itself to find cost efficiencies.
US companies will try to unpack the many complexities of re-sourcing products to mitigate the inflationary effects of tariffs. Domestic substitution is not a possibility in the near-term.
US consumers will begin to see inflationary impacts of Tariffication in the coming weeks. China announced retaliatory measures that would open the door for other countries to do the same.

6. EA Disinflates March’s Excess

Euro area inflation slightly undershot consensus expectations in March, consistent with the correlation of surprises and energy prices. Yet it was 7bps above our forecast.
Services prices drove core inflation down to 2.4%, creating some dovish space. However, the headline outcome reversed last month’s upside to match February forecasts.
Resilience in the real economy still justifies more cautious easing close to neutral, so we expect graduated cuts to skip April for June, but the risk of an extra cut has risen.

7. The Month Ahead: Key Events in April

By Gaudenz Schneider

Central Bank Rate Decisions in Australia, India, and South Korea.
Tariffs: US reciprocal tariffs effective from 2 April; secondary tariffs are now a factor.
Holidays: Good Friday is an exchange holiday in Hong Kong, Australia, India, and the US. Several other national holidays throughout the region.

8. Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” – Part 1: Hong Kong Strategy

By Rikki Malik

That “Oh sh#t moment” has just struck many investors in US markets
Within Hong Kong , Tech most at risk as investors take profit
Our alternative sector selection has performed both absolutely and in relative terms

9. HEW: Yikes, At Tonto Tariff Hikes

By Manishi Raychaudhuri, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Severe global tariff increases have significantly impacted market sentiment, leading to lower equity prices and rate expectations. The market’s eagerness to discount ongoing US labour market resilience is considered excessive.
The new tariff rates are set to take effect in the coming week. Any further trade conflicts could be the main macro news.
US inflation, UK GDP, and the RBNZ are the conventional highlights, but these data may be disregarded as old news.

10. Asian Equities: India – Brace for Another Leg Down in the Near Term

Indian equity’s recent spike overlooks near-term risks – possible cuts in consensus EPS estimates, risks arising from reciprocal tariffs and another bout of likely INR depreciation. Valuations are again expensive.
Our analysis of sector fundamentals foretells earnings estimate cuts in most sectors. Financials, and to a lesser extent, consumer discretionary could see upgrades. Expanding trade deficit could drive INR decline.
In the near term we are cautious about India. For country-dedicated investors we recommend increasing exposure to financials (particularly large cap private banks), select consumer discretionary, and defensives like utilities.

Mar 30

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Mar 30, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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By Alastair Newton, Heteronomics

1. US Tariffs: No Fooling!

The announcement of individual reciprocal tariff rates for US trading patterns on 2 April is a significant event for investors.
This announcement is part of a drive to re-industrialise America.
Despite its significance, this could merely represent the initial stages of a prolonged trade war.

2. The Week Ahead – In The Eye of The Storm

By Nomura – The Week Ahead, Nomura – The Week Ahead

The Fed, Bank of England, and BOJ all left rates unchanged with their own unique perspectives
Market volatility continues with equities bouncing and the dollar rebounding
Fed Chair Powell emphasized keeping options open and uncertainty in the economy, with no immediate rate cuts expected

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3. UK: Low CPI As Seasonal Sales Extend

UK CPI inflation slowed by 15bps to 2.84%, rounding slightly under expectations. The services rate was surprisingly resilient, and January’s upside news broadly persisted.
Downside news from clothing and core goods prices occurred because January sales extended broadly and unusually. Postponed Spring lines should drive a March rebound.
Headline inflation outcomes are benign enough not to threaten the BoE’s likely cut in May, but ongoing resilience still makes that the final move in our forecast.

4. UK Fiscal Smoke Over Treading Water

Attempts to recreate fiscal headroom after slippage rely on implausible and optimistic assumptions. Further tax rises and delayed prudence are likely in the Autumn budget.
Replacing aid resources with capital defence spending helps loosen fiscal policy inside the budgetary rules. Policy changes are relatively neutral over the next few years.
Without corrective action, the gross financing requirement path is £18bn a year higher than in the Autumn, and almost £50bn higher than last Spring, burdening gilt issuance.

5. PMI Spring Vibe Shifts

By Manishi Raychaudhuri, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

A resurgence in the US and UK services PMIs seems inconsistent with renewed dovish pricing that assumes activity weakness. Vibes may be throwing surveys beyond reality.
Labour demand growth seems to be trending close to supply, signalling monetary conditions close to neutral. That is broadly the story across a broad basket of countries.
We still believe rate pricing is too dovish for the Fed and, to a lesser extent, the BoE. Noisy survey vibes and spurious assumptions of tightness are likely to be misleading.

6. Asian Equities: What if There’s a US Recession?

US recession chatter is back. During past recessions, US declined less than Asia. Within Asia, select consumer staples, telecommunication, energy outperformed. Surprisingly, so did Korea and Taiwan tech, HK industrials.
Asian equity drawdown was driven more by valuation derating than by earnings decline. During every US recession, all Asian currencies depreciated and FIIs sold almost all Asian markets.
In the event of a US recession, we think Asia would outperform US. We like attractively valued domestic-focused sectors and stocks, unless a globally linked stock is egregiously undervalued.

7. Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (31 March- 6 April)

By Gaudenz Schneider

Australia: RBA rate decision on 1 April. Expect no change.
Japan: Nikkei 225 rebalancing effective 31 March at the close.
US reciprocal tariffs will keep everyone on their toes on 2 April.

8. Asian Equities: India – What Would FIIs and DIIs Buy and Sell?

By Manishi Raychaudhuri, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

We analyze FIIs’ and DIIs’ buying/selling trend across sectors and their sector-wise stances relative to benchmarks to assess which sectors they would buy or sell in the near term.
FIIs and DIIs have bought consumer discretionary and healthcare secularly. They recently started buying financials and IT, after prolonged selling. They’ve also secularly bought industrials, barring the last two quarters.
We conclude that both FIIs and DIIs shall continue to buy financials, industrials and consumer discretionary. They would also buy healthcare and sell materials, energy, IT and consumer staples.

9. How to Trade the Momentum Reversal

By Manu Bhaskaran, Centennial Asia Advisors

Global equity markets saw a sudden reversal in risk appetite out of the Magnificent Seven.
While risk appetite has recovered in the U.S. equity market and a relief rally will likely continue, the jury is still out on whether the stampede into non-U.S. will continue.
Reiterate our view that any relief rally is unlikely to be sustainable. Investors may be better served by diversifying their U.S. exposure into non-U.S. equities for the coming market cycle.

10. Abroad and at Home, Asian Politics Set For a Tough Ride Ahead

Washington’s apparent disengagement from its European partners is troubling Asian governments who are rethinking their own foreign policy and security strategies.
So far, the region has not been targeted by the US administration. But their persistent trade surpluses and security arrangements expose them to potentially aggressive measures.
Domestically, political stability has deteriorated in Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, distracting governments from providing effective leadership in a riskier world.

Mar 09

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Mar 9, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Ray Dalio on the Coming Crisis in US Debt

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater and author, discusses big numbers and debt cycles in a social and political context
Tracy and Joe host a podcast episode with Ray Dalio, known for his insights on finance and the invention of the chicken nugget

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2. From Gene Hackman to Bitcoin: Signals, Sell-Offs, and Discipline | The New Barbarians #010

Episode 10 of New Barbarians podcast covers recent events and discusses Gene Hackman’s passing
Mark Connors shares insights on investors seeking certainty and compares them to characters in Gene Hackman’s movies
Trump’s statements on Truth social and implications for the crypto market are analyzed, drawing parallels to themes of integrity and leadership in Hoosiers.

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3. The US Bear Market: Stage One – DENIAL

After several months of a technical top-consolidation, the US market is entering a bear market. The piercing of the Magnificent-7 bubble will continue to drive selling pressure in the market.
Inflation pressures will tie the Fed’s hands to bail out the market with another Fed Put. Another market bailout would cost much more than the $5 trillion COVID bailout.
The administration’s policy sequencing is pushing inflation expectations higher as the immediate tariff implementation supersedes other anti-inflationary policies, which will take longer to implement.

4. HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (February 2025)

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

HK Alpha Portfolio returned 13.58% in February and outperformed the benchmark by 7.68%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 5.16% to 11.48% since its inception on 10/01/24.
About 50% of the portfolio’s excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio had no exposure to Real Estate, Energy, or Utilities.
At month-end we sold AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) , Trip.com Group (9961 HK) , MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) , and trimmed Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) .

5. 2025 Global Investment Strategy

Last year 70% of the calls made money. This year we make another 43 investment recommendations, global, US, Europe, Japan and 8 Asian countries.
Our prediction that Bitcoin will become a US reserve asset under Trump is already playing out.
Stock market volatility will persist, with diverging performance and subdued gains compared with 2024. Our top picks are the US, Japan, Taiwan, Korea and India and selectively China.

6. ECB: Meaningfully Less Restrictive

The ECB’s sixth 25bp deposit rate cut to 2.5% was unsurprising, and its characterisation of policy as meaningfully less restrictive leaned towards our relatively hawkish view.
Policy rates may already be close to neutral. Looser fiscal policy plans also pressure monetary policy to follow a tighter path than would otherwise have been necessary.
We still expect the ECB to hold rates in April, which is no longer a controversial call. A final 25bp ECB cut in June remains in our outlook (BoE cuts in May and Fed on hold).

7. The Drill – Geopolitical Tensions Are Easing, Not Escalating

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly editorial on geopolitics, commodities, and macro.
While there hasn’t been much news on the commodity front since last week, we have a bunch of moving parts on the geopolitical scene—last Friday’s heated (and unplanned) Zelensky/Trump debate, the subsequent removal of all military aid targeting Ukraine, and now Trump trying his best to get all counterparts and allies to block any partnerships with China.
While this was already evident earlier this week, when the administration urged Mexico to impose tariffs on China to avoid US tariffs, today’s reports of Putin acting as the middleman in the Iran nuclear deal were not something anyone had on their bingo cards.

8. HEM: Pausing Policy Easing

Central banks are advised to slow, pause, or stop reducing rates due to rising inflation and labour costs.
Inflation is unexpectedly increasing, and labour costs are exceeding target-consistent levels.
Monetary policy is almost neutral according to activity trends, but rate hikes in 2026 could counteract unnecessary easing.

9. Steno Signals #187 – Remember August & September 2024? Tariffs are to blame

Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties.
I don’t feel in a position to judge either side, but I will use this analysis to assess the ramifications of the event.
As a disclaimer, remember that I am European!Trump’s argument that the U.S. pays too much to the rest of the world is, in many ways, entirely correct—but also quite banal.

10. HEW: Political Blunderbuss

Shot from Trump’s blunderbuss is hitting sentiment and risk appetite yet the hard data remain resilient. Europe waking up on defence punched markets more in hope than reality, but hawkish inflation and ECB news helped create room to close our bullish call.
Next week’s US inflation data are the scheduled global highlight, along with the Bank of Canada likely pausing its cutting cycle. We also await UK GDP data confirming resilience inconsistent with the dovish panic at February’s BoE meeting.
Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to transition@smartkarma.com).

Feb 23

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 23, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Kevin Jiang – The Biggest Trade of Our Lifetime & The Next Financial Shift | The New Barbarians #008

By Alex Ng, Fortress Hill Advisors

Episode number eight of the Barbarians podcast on Valentine’s Day, February 14, 2025, featuring guest Kevin Jang, CIO of Virgo Digital Asset Management
Kevin’s background includes experience in trading fixed income markets and digital assets, providing valuable insights on correlations between traditional macroeconomics and digital assets
Discussion on recent market events such as blowout jobs numbers and higher than expected CPI, signaling a potential turning point in the markets and a shift in investor sentiment

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2. Why Are Bond Yields Rising As Rates Are Cut?

By The Bid, The Bid

Fed interest rate policies have not followed traditional patterns, with long-term rates decoupling from short-term rates
The economic shock of Covid-19 has led to increased focus on inflation and uncertainty in the bond market
Fed Chairman Powell’s actions and fiscal policy responses have contributed to changing economic dynamics and interest rate outlooks

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3. U.S. Treasuries and the Trump Effect

If the Fed convinces the market that it is leaving the door open to easing and sees Fed Funds reduction multi-year, then 2yr could hold onto a small discount .
10yr yields will likely maintain a small to modest premium to 2yr.
Funding will keep 10yr Treasuriies elevated unless a slowdown in the economy is evident, but the 10yr budget bill now looks like it will produce a budget deficit in 2026-27.

4. What the Surge in Gold Tells Us About the Stock Market

The gold bull is just starting, with strong upside potential in the coming investment cycle.
The market is undergoing a regime shift. Gold will be useful to hedge against bond weakness in the coming cycle, which will see small-caps dominate large-caps and value dominate growth.
Gold mining stocks present a long-term opportunity, but may be vulnerable to a short-term setback.

5. Steno Signals #185 – Reciprocal Tariffs Are GOOD News! Here Is Why!

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we cut through the noise and deliver contrarian takes on macroeconomics, liquidity, tradeable themes, and everything in between.
Reciprocal tariffs is a concept you’ll need to familiarize yourself with.
Despite Trump’s press conference last week being a confusing mess, lacking clarity on geographies, products, and specific tariff/VAT rates targeted in this tit-for-tat approach, the aim seems crystal clear: Trump wants a global response, and it could very well lead to globally lower tariffs and VAT rates.

6. India & Trump’s Trade War

Buy and hold investors should be looking to buy on dip, and we are structurally long Indian equities.
However the attraction of India as a hedge against Trump’s global trade war and China has diminished. Two reasons.
First, India’s disappointing economic performance. Second, Trading Post’s expectations that the trade war will be over sooner than consensus is expecting and that a US-China trade deal will be struck.

7. The Drill – The Big Tech Showdown

By Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research

Xi’s Tech Summit: China’s Wake-Up Call: On Monday, February 17, Xi Jinping sat down with China’s tech elite in what looked like a serious course correction. Jack Ma (Alibaba) was there. So was Ren Zhengfei (Huawei). But one key figure was missing: Robin Li, Baidu’s CEO. His absence sent Baidu’s stock into a tailspin, wiping out billions in market value before state media scrambled to calm investors down.
Trump’s Tech Playbook: No More Playing Defense: Beijing is watching what’s happening in Washington—and it doesn’t like what it sees. The Trump administration is moving fast, rolling back regulation, cutting deals with industry giants, and pushing AI, semiconductors, and defense tech like it’s the new space race.
Baidu’s Stock Crash: A Symbol of China’s Problem: The Baidu selloff shows that investors are still nervous about China’s real stance on tech. It’s one thing to invite Jack Ma back into the room—it’s another to convince the market that Beijing is serious about letting private companies thrive again.

8. US vs EU Part 3: Russia/Ukraine

By Alastair Newton, Heteronomics

The misinterpretation of the recent Trump/Putin phone conversation by the commentariat partly explains why markets are currently ahead of the curve on Russia/Ukraine issues.
As long as European leaders continue to deny the state of transatlantic relations, the situation remains uncertain.
Given the current circumstances, investors should proceed with caution, keeping in mind the principle of ‘caveat emptor’ (buyer beware).

9. Charting India’s Path in an Evolving World

By Priyanka Kishore, Asia Decoded

India’s economic future continues to be hotly debated, not least because of Prime Minister Modi’s vision to make it a developed economy by 2047.
Unfortunately, economic trends haven’t played along. The stellar post-pandemic growth recovery has given way to an abrupt slowdown, led by falling private consumption growth.
We chat with eminent Indian scholar and noted journalist, Niranjan Rajadhyaksha, on the opportunities and challenges facing India.

10. India – Stay Overweight But Hedge

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

Maintain structural overweight on Indian equities but hedge against rupee weakness
While buy and hold investors should be looking to buy on dip, the attraction of India as a hedge against Trump’s global trade war and China has diminished.
That said fundamentals – corporate and bank balance sheets – are strong, the corporate profit cycle is in upswing and the real cost of capital is within the normal range.

Feb 09

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 9, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Marko Kolanovic Is Back With a Warning for Stocks

Recent tech stock sell-off causing market volatility
Limited contagion to broader market, some stocks even up
Potential for more impact as uncertainty around DeepSeek continues

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2. Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside

Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro.
Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” That, in itself, says a lot about sentiment.
I’m currently making my way home from the U.S. after meeting with a ton of investors over the past three days, and I’ve come away with the view that a weaker USD is now the pain trade.

3. The Tariff Effect: Economic Uncertainty Unpacked | The New Barbarians #006

Equities opened down, with futures showing a decline across various markets
January saw significant gains in gold and Bitcoin, outperforming equities
European stocks surged 8.2% in a month, surprising many investors and challenging traditional market outlooks

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4. The Tariff Announcement That Shocked Financial Markets

Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, 10% tariffs on oil and China
Tariffs are paid by US consumers at the point of entry, not fully equating to a 25% price increase
Uncertainty about impact of tariffs on prices of goods like maple syrup and avocados

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5. Can the Stock Market Vigilantes Save the Bull?

By Alex Ng, Fortress Hill Advisors

The current environment suggests that traders should adopt a strategy of “buy the dip and sell the rips”.
The combination of negative surprises during earnings season and potential bearish policy announcements when the market is overbought will put downward pressure on stock prices.
On the other hand, investors should trust the stock market vigilantes to activate the Trump Put in the event of a market downdraft.

6. China-U.S. Trade War Next To Talks?

Negotiating will likely start in spring, but negotiating will be tough as the U.S. wants a phase 2 deal with new objectives to boost U.S. exports and penalties
China will likely be quick to make concessions on needed agricultural imports and illegal Fentanyl from China, but slow to concede on the idea of penalties.
It will be a volatile road to an eventual deal in late H1 or early H2.

7. A Long-Term Sell Signal?

By Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research

Breadth indicators are flashing early cautionary signals for U.S. equities, but these signals can often be early in calling a major market top.
A review of other indicators on different investing dimensions are either benign or cautious.
We interpret this as the warning of a possible major market top in Q1 or Q2. Investors should monitor risk appetite indicators for tactical signs to turn cautious.

8. The Drill – Oil down and precious metals UP.. The short USD trade in Geopolitics

Welcome to this week’s The Drill, which I will be authoring by myself moving forward.
This means a continued focus on commodities and energy, but also an increased dosage of geopolitics as many of you have wished for.
Each week, we’ll cover a couple of key topics as well as provide you with a sneak peak into our data models and what they have to say on commodities.

9. Global FX & Equities: Dollar/ equity linkages and the upcoming tariff announcement

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

Concerns about the end of US equity exceptionalism could lead to potential weakness in the dollar
Deepseek model challenges US exceptionalism in tech and could impact equity markets
Despite volatility, US equity market still strong, but potential for more bouts of volatility ahead

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10. The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Alfamart’s Guidance, Indonesia’s Pragmatism, and Thai Banks

By Angus Mackintosh, CrossASEAN Research

The past week saw insights on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ, SLB Development (SLB SP), Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), Hyphens Pharma International (HYP SP), and Bund Center Investment (BTE SP).
There was also a macro insight on Singapore, an Indonesia Strategy Insight, and a bank screener looking at Thai Banks from Victor Galliano.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.

Feb 02

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 2, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. How Oaktree’s Howard Marks Spots a Market Bubble

Howard Marks correctly called the dot com bubble in the early 2000s
The 1990s were a placid period for credit investors but a hot time for equity investors
Being too far ahead of your time in predicting market trends can be painful and indistinguishable from being wrong

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2. Steno Signals #182 – Cutting Through the Trump Noise: A Massive Uniform Move Is Happening

By Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez, Macro Hive

Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
We are now at the final innings of the inauguration week, and oh boy did it surprise and entertain right about everyone (including me).
From full-blown tariffs from the get-go being the base case, a Trump meme coin being launched into the week and a government sponsored Bitcoin reserve (or at least a clear reference to the crypto space during his first week) to barely any mentioning of crypto, no immediate tariffs on China and very accommodative policies on the fiscal side, which makes the 3% deficit target proposed by Scott Bessent look unrealistic at best.

3. Ep. 252: Jay Pelosky on How US Equities Could Underperform Rest of the World

Jay Peloski, founder of TPW Advisory and former top-ranked analyst at Morgan Stanley, discusses the tripolar framework of regional integration and competition between Europe, Asia, and the Americas
Europe faces challenges with common taxation and revenue creation, Asia is increasingly integrated around China, and the Americas have not fully leveraged North America integration and engagement with South America
Regional competition is seen in key areas such as AI, climate, and defense, with each region vying for economic influence and competitive advantage amid global shifts and challenges

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4. Generative AI, LLMs, & the Evolution of Product Teams w/ Dr. Thársis Souza | The New Barbarians #005

By Ulrik Simmelholt, Steno Research

Mark has 15 years of experience delivering new technology products in a variety of companies and holds a PhD in Computer Science from UCL University of London
He is the author of the book Taming LLMs and the creator of Podcastify AI
Mark recapped recent events in the markets, discussed taming LLMs and creating robotic podcasts, and highlighted the success of Bitcoin ETFs

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5. The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here

Let’s start with DeepSeek.
The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted.
With barriers to entry for AI development rapidly lowering and efficiency gains fueling greater demand rather than less, it seems inevitable that this trend will reshape the AI landscape.

6. Overview #14 – The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment

By Rikki Malik

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The narrative change around US tech spending on AI has potentially positive implications for Chinese technology shares
India sets the stage for interest rate cuts and the budget cuts taxes for the middle classes to boost consumption

7. EM Fixed Income Focus: What we know (or don’t) after Week 1

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

EM markets reacting to executive orders and remarks from President Trump, particularly focused on tariffs
EM currencies have shown some strength due to lack of tariff implementation so far
Market relief since the inauguration, but uncertainty remains around tariff policy and other domestic issues

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8. Mexico faces a deficit – and Donald Trump

By Behind the Money, Behind the Money

President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October, inheriting a delicate economic situation from her popular predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
Many lower income people in Mexico are benefiting from higher wages and government social programs, but others, particularly middle and higher income earners, feel stagnant economic growth and uncertainty due to US tariff threats.
The relationship between Mexico and the US, along with Sheinbaum’s plans and the ability to attract outside investment, will be key factors in Mexico’s economic growth under her leadership.

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9. Get Ready For Another Shock to Housing Affordability