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Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Deep Dive - Facebook Metaverse This week I want to do a deep dive into the Metaverse after Facebook (FB) announced its plan to hire 10,000 people for their Metaverse project. It’s a theme that will run through many future editions of WIRE and is something I’ve also dived into a little here and here with Future Sandwich’s Tommy McCubbin.</p>

Deep Dive - Facebook Metaverse This week I want to do a deep dive into the Metaverse after Facebook (FB) announced its plan to hire 10,000 people for their Metaverse project. It’s a theme that will run through many future editions of WIRE and is something I’ve also dived into a little here and here with Future Sandwich’s Tommy McCubbin.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.</p></div><div></div><div>
<p>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-guided-by-ant-financial-to-be-a-mini-ant" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant, </a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-peer-comparison-local-and-international" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Peer comparison - local and international, and</a></li>
</ul>
</div><ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-valuation-and-likely-impact-of-latest-announcement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest Announcement</a></li></ul><div><p>As the company is slated to be in front of investors again and finally launch its bookbuilding next week, in this note we will talk about the updates from the refiled prospectus and have a relook at valuations.</p></div>

Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.
We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:

Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant, 
Kakao Pay IPO - Peer comparison - local and international, and

Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest AnnouncementAs the company is slated to be in front of investors again and finally launch its bookbuilding next week, in this note we will talk about the updates from the refiled prospectus and have a relook at valuations.

Kakao Pay IPO - Low-End Still Appear Reasonable but Stock Will More Likely Be Driven by Sentiment

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paytm-mobile-solutions-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a>, formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer. Paytm’s shareholders include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a> (29.6% of outstanding shares), Softbank Vision Fund (18.3%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> (7.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)</a> (2.8%).  </p>
<p>Paytm is in talks with firms such as Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, GIC, Blackrock and Noumra to become anchor investors in its upcoming IPO, according to press reports. Paytm is also seeking to raise up to Rs166.0 billion ($2.2 billion) at a $20-22 billion valuation, according to press reports. </p>
</div><div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/paytm-ipo-initiation-a-payments-led-super-app" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54983" rel="noopener">Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App</a>, we opined that as India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. The advent of UPI has increased competition (Google Pay, PhonePe, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/one-mobikwik-systems-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33952:1" rel="noopener">One Mobikwik Systems (1235487D IN)</a>) but Paytm is also leveraging its dominance in digital payments to build a synergistic ecosystem of complementary services, resulting in a strong claim to the “super-app” tag. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. We concluded that Paytm's fundamentals are attractive. </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we take a first look at Paytm's valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.</p></div>
</div></div>


Paytm (PAYTM IN), formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer. Paytm’s shareholders include Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) (29.6% of outstanding shares), Softbank Vision Fund (18.3%), Alibaba Group (BABA US) (7.2%) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) (2.8%).  
Paytm is in talks with firms such as Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, GIC, Blackrock and Noumra to become anchor investors in its upcoming IPO, according to press reports. Paytm is also seeking to raise up to Rs166.0 billion ($2.2 billion) at a $20-22 billion valuation, according to press reports. 

In Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App, we opined that as India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. The advent of UPI has increased competition (Google Pay, PhonePe, One Mobikwik Systems (1235487D IN)) but Paytm is also leveraging its dominance in digital payments to build a synergistic ecosystem of complementary services, resulting in a strong claim to the “super-app” tag. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. We concluded that Paytm's fundamentals are attractive. 
In this note, we take a first look at Paytm's valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toast-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34261:1" rel="noopener">Toast (TOST US)</a> increased its IPO price range to<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/restaurant-software-provider-toast-raises-144113955.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> $34 to $36</a> per share on 20 September, up from $30 to $33 per share previously. The company plans to offer 21.74 million class A shares through its IPO. At the high end of the revised up IPO price ($36 per share), Toast Inc would raise $783 million.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Our base case valuation of Toast Inc is implied market cap of US$24.9 billion or US$45.5 per share, which is 26% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (US$36). Given the decent upside, we have a POSITIVE view of this IPO. </p>
<p>Our valuation of Toast Inc is based on an EV/S multiple of 10.1x using our estimated sales of $2.4 billion in 2022. The EV/S multiple of 10.1x is based on a 10% discount to the average multiple of the comps in 2022.</p>
</div>

Toast (TOST US) increased its IPO price range to $34 to $36 per share on 20 September, up from $30 to $33 per share previously. The company plans to offer 21.74 million class A shares through its IPO. At the high end of the revised up IPO price ($36 per share), Toast Inc would raise $783 million.
Our base case valuation of Toast Inc is implied market cap of US$24.9 billion or US$45.5 per share, which is 26% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (US$36). Given the decent upside, we have a POSITIVE view of this IPO. 
Our valuation of Toast Inc is based on an EV/S multiple of 10.1x using our estimated sales of $2.4 billion in 2022. The EV/S multiple of 10.1x is based on a 10% discount to the average multiple of the comps in 2022.


<p>Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.</p><p>As of 1H21, KP had a total of 36m users and around 20m monthly active users (MAU). It processed a total GMV of KRW66.9tn in 2020 and it had already generated KRW47.9tn GMV in 1H21 itself. As of the end of 1H21, it had dealings with more than 610,000 affiliated stores and 100 financial institutions.</p><p>Since spinning out from Kakao in 2017, the number of MAUs have grown 14x from 2Q17 to 2Q21, while the quarterly transaction amount grew 61x from KRW0.4tn in 2Q17 to KRW24.5tn in 2Q21. </p><p>Over the past few years the company has been expanding its offering beyond payment processing to include other financial products. On the back of this, its revenue has been growing faster than its GMV.</p><p>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-guided-by-ant-financial-to-be-a-mini-ant" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant</a>.</p><p>In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.</p>

Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.As of 1H21, KP had a total of 36m users and around 20m monthly active users (MAU). It processed a total GMV of KRW66.9tn in 2020 and it had already generated KRW47.9tn GMV in 1H21 itself. As of the end of 1H21, it had dealings with more than 610,000 affiliated stores and 100 financial institutions.Since spinning out from Kakao in 2017, the number of MAUs have grown 14x from 2Q17 to 2Q21, while the quarterly transaction amount grew 61x from KRW0.4tn in 2Q17 to KRW24.5tn in 2Q21. Over the past few years the company has been expanding its offering beyond payment processing to include other financial products. On the back of this, its revenue has been growing faster than its GMV.We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note, Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant.In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.

Kakao Pay IPO - Peer Comparison - Local and International

United States

Block, Inc. operates as a financial services and digital payments company. The Company develops a payments platform aimed at small and medium businesses that allows them to accept credit card payments and use tablet computers as payment registers for a point-of-sale system. Block also provides financial and marketing services.

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Block (SQ US)

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #54

Deep Dive - Facebook Metaverse This week I want to do a deep dive into the Metaverse after Facebook (FB) announced its plan to hire 10,000 people...

Granite Bay Capital

Kakao Pay IPO - Low-End Still Appear Reasonable but Stock Will More Likely Be Driven by Sentiment

Kakao Pay aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. In this note, we will look at the recent updates and revisit our valuation.

Sumeet Singh

Paytm IPO: Valuation First Look

Paytm is seeking to raise up to $2.2 billion at a $20-22 billion valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured...

Arun George

Toast Inc Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Toast Inc is implied market cap of US$24.9 billion or US$45.5 per share, which is 26% higher than the high end of the...

Douglas Kim

Kakao Pay IPO - Peer Comparison - Local and International

Kakao Pay, one of South Korea’s largest payment apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to...

Sumeet Singh

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