APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">Tryt Inc (9164 JP)</a> is looking to raise about US$460m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Tryt Inc (Tryt) offers employee placement services and temporary staffing services for the elderly care, nursing care and childcare workers segments.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Tryt Inc (9164 JP) is looking to raise about US$460m in its Japan IPO.
Tryt Inc (Tryt) offers employee placement services and temporary staffing services for the elderly care, nursing care and childcare workers segments.
In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


Tryt IPO - The Negatives - Margins Have Consistently Narrowed and Gearing Could Cap Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">Tryt Inc (9164 JP)</a> is looking to raise about US$460m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Tryt Inc (Tryt) offers employee placement services and temporary staffing services for the elderly care, nursing care and childcare workers segments.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Tryt Inc (9164 JP) is looking to raise about US$460m in its Japan IPO.
Tryt Inc (Tryt) offers employee placement services and temporary staffing services for the elderly care, nursing care and childcare workers segments.
In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Tryt IPO - The Positives - Supportive Macro Backdrop and Has Weathered the Pandemic Well

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>On Thursday, the Nikkei came out with an <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/BOJ-to-widen-interest-rate-target-range-to-support-bank-profits" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> during the lunch break of equities trading. The headline said <em>"BOJ to widen interest rate target range to support bank profits" </em>and indeed in the article it noted that the BOJ would allow the long end of the curve to fluctuate more widely, creating a slightly steeper curve. This could lead to slightly better bank profits less because of the extra 5bp on the curve but more because of the expectation of forcing borrowers to pay more on an absolute basis. </p><p>What was MORE important for equity markets was the idea that the BOJ <em>"would also abolish its target for purchasing exchange-traded funds, now 6 trillion yen ($55 billion) per year, and instead vow to make such purchases only in times of market turmoil."</em></p><p>The article also suggested that the "Target" would be removed for the ¥90bn of J-REITs they buy as a base case (doubled now to ¥180bn as the ¥6trln was doubled to ¥12trln in the depths of the covid crash of March 2020). </p><p>This move caused Nikkei to underperform TOPIX on the day. TOPIX actually ended up on the day, and ended above where the market closed the AM session before the article came out. Nikkei fell, and started underperforming TOPIX from that point on. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/872/original/Screenshot+2021-03-21+at+3.26.17+PM.png?1616311594" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195872"></figure><p></p></section><p>Nikkei underperformed TOPIX in the AM session on Friday, and when the BOJ announcements came mid-day on Friday, there were additional subtleties involved. </p><p>The details are <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/rel210319c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. The presentation with the basic details is <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/k210319b.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p><ul>
<li>The target rates for ETF and REIT buying will be abolished, but the current "Target Rate" of annual buying will become annual maxima (¥12 trillion for ETFs, ¥180bn for J-REITs, with ongoing maximum ownership limits on ETFs in place).</li>
<li>Buying of ETFs and J-REITs will be conducted "as necessary" "in times of market turbulence" and such buying will be done only on TOPIX ETFs.</li>
<li>The "Special Rules for Purchases of ETFs to Support Firms Proactively Investing in Physical and Human Capital" will continue as before with only specific ETFs permitted in this group. The amount of ~¥300bn/year and ¥1.2bn per business day will continue.</li>
</ul><p>It based the new policy on the Reference <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/k210319c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">document</a> which backs up the changes in policy is <em>much</em> more interesting reading.  Appendix 5 and Chart 12 are the parts you want to read.</p><p>The hypotheses and results are described here.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/869/original/Screenshot+2021-03-21+at+3.02.28+PM.png?1616310186" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195869"></figure></section><p>There are a couple of other side conclusions but the base understanding is...</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  </p></div><h3>What This Means</h3><ul>
<li>When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  </li>
<li>Expect the BOJ to follow the concept of its study (Appendix 5 again).</li>
<li>Expect the BOJ to pay greater attention to futures activity. </li>
</ul><h3>What This Does NOT Mean</h3><ul><li>It does NOT mean the BOJ will be selling any ETFs.</li></ul><hr><p>It is worthwhile taking a look at WHY the market reacted the way it did on Thursday and Friday afternoon, and it is worthwhile looking at what the BOJ ETF buying might look like going forward. </p><p>So we do so below the fold.</p><p>Note: This is part 1 of the analysis of potential future BOJ ETF Buying. Part II looks at the difference in single stock makeup. </p>

On Thursday, the Nikkei came out with an article during the lunch break of equities trading. The headline said "BOJ to widen interest rate target range to support bank profits" and indeed in the article it noted that the BOJ would allow the long end of the curve to fluctuate more widely, creating a slightly steeper curve. This could lead to slightly better bank profits less because of the extra 5bp on the curve but more because of the expectation of forcing borrowers to pay more on an absolute basis. What was MORE important for equity markets was the idea that the BOJ "would also abolish its target for purchasing exchange-traded funds, now 6 trillion yen ($55 billion) per year, and instead vow to make such purchases only in times of market turmoil."The article also suggested that the "Target" would be removed for the ¥90bn of J-REITs they buy as a base case (doubled now to ¥180bn as the ¥6trln was doubled to ¥12trln in the depths of the covid crash of March 2020). This move caused Nikkei to underperform TOPIX on the day. TOPIX actually ended up on the day, and ended above where the market closed the AM session before the article came out. Nikkei fell, and started underperforming TOPIX from that point on. Nikkei underperformed TOPIX in the AM session on Friday, and when the BOJ announcements came mid-day on Friday, there were additional subtleties involved. The details are here. The presentation with the basic details is here.
The target rates for ETF and REIT buying will be abolished, but the current "Target Rate" of annual buying will become annual maxima (¥12 trillion for ETFs, ¥180bn for J-REITs, with ongoing maximum ownership limits on ETFs in place).
Buying of ETFs and J-REITs will be conducted "as necessary" "in times of market turbulence" and such buying will be done only on TOPIX ETFs.
The "Special Rules for Purchases of ETFs to Support Firms Proactively Investing in Physical and Human Capital" will continue as before with only specific ETFs permitted in this group. The amount of ~¥300bn/year and ¥1.2bn per business day will continue.
It based the new policy on the Reference document which backs up the changes in policy is much more interesting reading.  Appendix 5 and Chart 12 are the parts you want to read.The hypotheses and results are described here.There are a couple of other side conclusions but the base understanding is...When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  What This Means
When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  
Expect the BOJ to follow the concept of its study (Appendix 5 again).
Expect the BOJ to pay greater attention to futures activity. 
What This Does NOT MeanIt does NOT mean the BOJ will be selling any ETFs.It is worthwhile taking a look at WHY the market reacted the way it did on Thursday and Friday afternoon, and it is worthwhile looking at what the BOJ ETF buying might look like going forward. So we do so below the fold.Note: This is part 1 of the analysis of potential future BOJ ETF Buying. Part II looks at the difference in single stock makeup. 

Quantifying the BOJ Change in ETF Policy: Assessing Future ETF Buying Methodology

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Equity Bottom-Up

Matching Service Japan / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recruitment agency businesses have their general attractions in Japan, but we would focus on the highest-quality names like JAC Recruitment and Matching Service Japan;</li>
<li>Both companies appear to compete advantageously partly thanks to their niche focuses;</li>
<li>Both shares trade at similar valuations;</li>
<li>We feel it way more difficult to pick between the two than set them apart from the larger crowd, but here is our No. 1 pick if we have to choose.</li>
</ul>


Recruitment agency businesses have their general attractions in Japan, but we would focus on the highest-quality names like JAC Recruitment and Matching Service Japan;
Both companies appear to compete advantageously partly thanks to their niche focuses;
Both shares trade at similar valuations;
We feel it way more difficult to pick between the two than set them apart from the larger crowd, but here is our No. 1 pick if we have to choose.


Two Japanese High-Quality, Niche-Focused Recruitment Agents

Japan

SMS CO.,LTD. is a website operator regarding elderly care.  On its websites, the company provides a variety of information contents related to employment placements for senior care assistants and doctors, as well as medical and nursing qualifications.

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Sms Co Ltd (2175 JP)

Tryt IPO - The Negatives - Margins Have Consistently Narrowed and Gearing Could Cap Growth

Tryt Inc (9164 JP) is looking to raise about US$460m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

Clarence Chu

Tryt IPO - The Positives - Supportive Macro Backdrop and Has Weathered the Pandemic Well

Tryt Inc (9164 JP) is looking to raise about US$460m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Clarence Chu

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

Quantifying the BOJ Change in ETF Policy: Assessing Future ETF Buying Methodology

The BOJ has announced a change in ETF Buying Program Parameters. The study/review they did is required reading to understand how they might buy...

Travis Lundy

Two Japanese High-Quality, Niche-Focused Recruitment Agents

We feel it way more difficult to pick between the two than set them apart from the larger crowd, but here is our No. 1 pick if we have to choose.

Steven Chen

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