Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The Thai government is in talks with China to exempt Chinese tourists from the required 14-day quarantine by 2021. The exemption may push through if the limited reopening of Thailand for international tourism will be a success. The current14-day quarantine will be replaced by coronavirus testing and mobile tracking app.</p>
<p>Chinese tourists accounted for more than 25% of Thailand’s international tourists and maybe the first low-risk country that will sign up for quarantine-free travel. Most Chinese visitors come to Thailand for a week, so being quarantined would not be worth the trip for many. </p>
<p>The protest in Thailand has not subsided therefore the high pent-up demand from Chinese tourists may have to be reallocated somewhere else. Historically, however, any protests in Thailand did not last long and mostly peaceful thus it may create some opportunity to <strong>accumulate </strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> stock. </p>

The Thai government is in talks with China to exempt Chinese tourists from the required 14-day quarantine by 2021. The exemption may push through if the limited reopening of Thailand for international tourism will be a success. The current14-day quarantine will be replaced by coronavirus testing and mobile tracking app.
Chinese tourists accounted for more than 25% of Thailand’s international tourists and maybe the first low-risk country that will sign up for quarantine-free travel. Most Chinese visitors come to Thailand for a week, so being quarantined would not be worth the trip for many. 
The protest in Thailand has not subsided therefore the high pent-up demand from Chinese tourists may have to be reallocated somewhere else. Historically, however, any protests in Thailand did not last long and mostly peaceful thus it may create some opportunity to accumulate Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) stock. 

Airport of Thailand (AOT): Soon or Later?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rolls-royce-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22121:1" rel="noopener">Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN)</a> this morning announced a rights offering. It's a biggie. It makes no bones about what it is. </p><p>There is a handy <a href="https://www.rolls-royce.com/~/media/Files/R/Rolls-Royce/documents/rights-issue/investor-presentation.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Presentation</a> to go with the <a href="https://www.rolls-royce.com/~/media/Files/R/Rolls-Royce/documents/rights-issue/launch-announcement.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Announcement</a> and the <a href="https://www.rolls-royce.com/~/media/Files/R/Rolls-Royce/documents/rights-issue/rights-issue-prospectus.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prospectus</a>. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/902/original/Screenshot%202020-10-01%20at%202.24.06%20PM.png?1601533460" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162902"></figure><p>The total Restructuring Package has several aspects to it and the rights offering is only part of it. The FCF loss of £4bn in 2020 is expected to be offset, over time, with £2bn of rights and £2bn of disposals.</p><ul>
<li>Cut 9,000 jobs by 2022 (this includes 4,800 already departed)</li>
<li>Reduce the number of sites, and reduce capital intensity in Civil Aerospace</li>
<li>Dispose of at least £2bn in assets (some disposals discussed at results announcement in August)</li>
<li>Launch a £1bn bond offering in the coming weeks</li>
<li>Launch a fully-underwritten £2bn 10:3 rights issue (timetable 6 weeks)</li>
<li>Get a new two-year term loan facility of £1bn (conditional on completion of rights issue)</li>
<li>Get an increase in UK Export Finance extension  of 80% guarantee to increase existing £2bn 5yr loan by £1bn (conditional on completion of rights issue)</li>
</ul><p>Some of this involves dealing with the refi of existing loans and maturities of revolving credit facilities. Some of it involves trying to recover restructuring costs.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/903/original/Screenshot%202020-10-01%20at%202.35.12%20PM.png?1601534174" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162903"></figure><p></p><h3>The Financing Measures Depend on the Rights Issue</h3><p>There is £5bn of financing involved in this package. £2bn from the Rights Issue, £1bn from a new bond, £1bn from a new 2yr loan facility, and £1bn from the extension of the UKEF guarantee. </p><p>ALL of them basically depend on the Rights Issue going through, so the timeline is important. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/904/original/Screenshot%202020-10-01%20at%202.41.46%20PM.png?1601534519" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162904"></figure><p>The bond is "expected to be completed within the timeline for the rights issue" but what that <em>likely</em> means is that it will be prepped during October and will be sold after the Shareholder General Meeting has approved the Rights Issue by Ordinary Resolution (and the Rights Issue itself will also be conditional on the Underwriting Agreement having become unconditional in all respects).</p><p>Rights Issues are often not "fun" for investors. They are often serious business affairs where one has to decide whether to throw good capital after bad. <em>This</em> rights issue has been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-rolls-royce-hldg-e-idUSKCN24U1QH" target="_blank" rel="noopener">somewhat signalled</a> (Reuters article end-July suggested a rights issue) and the difficult financial straits the company finds itself in are not terribly surprising because the plight of airlines has been laid bare. What is somewhat surprising is that many airline company shares have significantly outperformed Rolls shares.</p><p>For event traders, they can be very fun. There are dynamics to these events which are important. And because rights issues of this level of dilution (10:3) are somewhat uncommon, there are a lot of people who do not understand how they work. </p><p>The fact that the rights exercise price (GBp32.00/share) is set at a 41.41% discount to the Theoretical Ex-Rights Price is striking. It tells you the underwriters think there is real risk that the stock falls sharply from its TERP before it gets to the actual rights subscription. It also tells you this is much more like a distressed equity restructuring than a regular rights offering. </p><p>Long only investors and special situations long/short investors should be aware of the dynamics and pitfalls. Investors new to Rolls Royce should be aware of what the dynamics are within the rights trading period.</p><p>As always, there is much more below the fold. </p>

Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) this morning announced a rights offering. It's a biggie. It makes no bones about what it is. There is a handy Presentation to go with the Announcement and the Prospectus. The total Restructuring Package has several aspects to it and the rights offering is only part of it. The FCF loss of £4bn in 2020 is expected to be offset, over time, with £2bn of rights and £2bn of disposals.
Cut 9,000 jobs by 2022 (this includes 4,800 already departed)
Reduce the number of sites, and reduce capital intensity in Civil Aerospace
Dispose of at least £2bn in assets (some disposals discussed at results announcement in August)
Launch a £1bn bond offering in the coming weeks
Launch a fully-underwritten £2bn 10:3 rights issue (timetable 6 weeks)
Get a new two-year term loan facility of £1bn (conditional on completion of rights issue)
Get an increase in UK Export Finance extension  of 80% guarantee to increase existing £2bn 5yr loan by £1bn (conditional on completion of rights issue)
Some of this involves dealing with the refi of existing loans and maturities of revolving credit facilities. Some of it involves trying to recover restructuring costs.The Financing Measures Depend on the Rights IssueThere is £5bn of financing involved in this package. £2bn from the Rights Issue, £1bn from a new bond, £1bn from a new 2yr loan facility, and £1bn from the extension of the UKEF guarantee. ALL of them basically depend on the Rights Issue going through, so the timeline is important. The bond is "expected to be completed within the timeline for the rights issue" but what that likely means is that it will be prepped during October and will be sold after the Shareholder General Meeting has approved the Rights Issue by Ordinary Resolution (and the Rights Issue itself will also be conditional on the Underwriting Agreement having become unconditional in all respects).Rights Issues are often not "fun" for investors. They are often serious business affairs where one has to decide whether to throw good capital after bad. This rights issue has been somewhat signalled (Reuters article end-July suggested a rights issue) and the difficult financial straits the company finds itself in are not terribly surprising because the plight of airlines has been laid bare. What is somewhat surprising is that many airline company shares have significantly outperformed Rolls shares.For event traders, they can be very fun. There are dynamics to these events which are important. And because rights issues of this level of dilution (10:3) are somewhat uncommon, there are a lot of people who do not understand how they work. The fact that the rights exercise price (GBp32.00/share) is set at a 41.41% discount to the Theoretical Ex-Rights Price is striking. It tells you the underwriters think there is real risk that the stock falls sharply from its TERP before it gets to the actual rights subscription. It also tells you this is much more like a distressed equity restructuring than a regular rights offering. Long only investors and special situations long/short investors should be aware of the dynamics and pitfalls. Investors new to Rolls Royce should be aware of what the dynamics are within the rights trading period.As always, there is much more below the fold. 

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Not surprisingly, online travel agency (OTA) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK)</a> reported substantial YoY declines in revenue and earnings in Q220, though market conditions and results were better than in Q120, when Covid19 and the government's response brought travel to a halt.</p>
<p>Tongcheng-ELong's revenue mix has changed as a result of the pandemic, in both positive and negative ways. While it's positive to see increased revenue from advertising and continued strength in its position in smaller cities, we believe the cessation of international travel hurts profitability. In addition, high fixed operating expenses also hit earnings in the second quarter.</p>
<p>As domestic travel normalized in the months following the peak of the pandemic in China, Tongcheng-ELong's shares have rallied by over 60%. Given the moderating pace of the recovery in Chinese travel demand, and stubbornly high operating expenses, we do not expect Tongcheng-ELong's earnings to suddenly 'snap back' in H220.</p>

Not surprisingly, online travel agency (OTA) Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK) reported substantial YoY declines in revenue and earnings in Q220, though market conditions and results were better than in Q120, when Covid19 and the government's response brought travel to a halt.
Tongcheng-ELong's revenue mix has changed as a result of the pandemic, in both positive and negative ways. While it's positive to see increased revenue from advertising and continued strength in its position in smaller cities, we believe the cessation of international travel hurts profitability. In addition, high fixed operating expenses also hit earnings in the second quarter.
As domestic travel normalized in the months following the peak of the pandemic in China, Tongcheng-ELong's shares have rallied by over 60%. Given the moderating pace of the recovery in Chinese travel demand, and stubbornly high operating expenses, we do not expect Tongcheng-ELong's earnings to suddenly 'snap back' in H220.

Tongcheng-ELong (780 HK) Q2 Results Reflect Changing Travel Patterns, Stubbornly High OpEx

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a></p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-macro-watch-august-the-new-tech-wars-chinese-flood" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42012" rel="noopener">Thai Macro Watch (August): The New Tech Wars, Chinese Flood</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> five global events and their impact on Thai equities.</p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ace-hardware-indonesia-aces-ij-building-a-road-to-recovery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42520" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Building A Road to Recovery,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits one of Indonesia's leading retailers after a call with management.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/akr-corporindo-akra-ij-the-landed-logistics-player" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42569" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - The Landed Logistics Player,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits this Indonesian chemical and fuel distributor with an increasing contribution coming from its JIIPE industrial estate. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sats-from-serving-22-5m-pax-in-1q20-to-serving-200k-pax-in-1q21-houston-we-have-a-problem" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42488" rel="noopener">SATS: From Serving 22.5M Pax in 1Q20 -&gt; To Serving 200K Pax in 1Q21. Houston We Have a Problem.</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits Singapore airport maintenance leader post its recent numbers. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/permata-bank-mandatory-takeover-launched-finally" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42577" rel="noopener">Permata Bank Mandatory Takeover Launched. Finally.</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> revisits the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)</a> deal as it enters its final stage.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sprime-good-point-of-entry-singha-connection-could-add-further-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42589" rel="noopener">SPRIME: Good Point of Entry, Singha Connection Could Add Further Upside,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on SPRIME with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt11.20, implying an upside of 21% from the current share price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aimirt-good-growth-outlook-but-already-priced-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42639" rel="noopener">AIMIRT: Good Growth Outlook, but Already Priced In</a> initiates coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aim-industrial-growth-freehold-and-leasehold-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29180:1" rel="noopener">AIM Industrial Growth Freehold and Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (AIMIRT TB)</a> with a HOLD recommendation based on a target price of Bt14.30, implying an upside of 6% from the current share price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/teamg-cost-savings-and-government-stimulus-to-drive-profit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42628" rel="noopener">TEAMG: Cost-Savings and Government Stimulus to Drive Profit,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/team-consulting-engineering-and-management-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29175:1" rel="noopener">TEAM Consulting Engineering and Management (TEAMG TB)</a> and maintains a BUY recommendation on the company as he increases the target price to Bt2.81 from Bt2.42, implying an upside of 17% from the current share price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sisb-good-entry-point-for-investment-in-private-schools" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42632" rel="noopener">SISB: Good Entry Point for Investment in Private Schools,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on SPRIME with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt11.20, implying an upside of 21% from the current share price.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sflex-staying-behind-key-players-in-the-market" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42679" rel="noopener">SFLEX: Staying Behind Key Players in the Market,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starflex-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29172:1" rel="noopener">Starflex PCL (SFLEX TB)</a> with a SELL recommendation based on a target price of Bt8.90, implying a downside of 28% from the current price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boffice-asset-expansion-motivates-the-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42678" rel="noopener">BOFFICE: Asset Expansion Motivates the Upside,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhiraj-office-leasehold-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29173:1" rel="noopener">Bhiraj Office Leasehold REIT (BOFFICE TB)</a> with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt14.10, implying an upside of 18% from the current share price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/all-valuation-remains-undemanding-expect-further-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42635" rel="noopener">ALL: Valuation Remains Undemanding, Expect Further Upside</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/all-inspire-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29177:1" rel="noopener">All Inspire Development PCL (ALL TB),</a> where he has a Buy recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 31% from the current price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/m-rapid-sssg-recovery-with-potential-growth-from-seafood-restaurant" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42578" rel="noopener">M: Rapid SSSG Recovery with Potential Growth from Seafood Restaurant,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> circle back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mk-restaurants-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17689:1" rel="noopener">MK Restaurants Group (M TB)</a> after attending the recent analyst briefing, where they came away more positive with signs of an SSSG recovery post lockdown easing.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/egco-positive-2h20-earnings-outlook-from-better-overseas-performance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42634" rel="noopener">EGCO: Positive 2H20 Earnings Outlook from Better Overseas Performance,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electricity-generating-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6149:1" rel="noopener">Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)</a> after the company's positive analyst briefing. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wice-expect-earnings-to-continue-growing-yoy-in-2h20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42537" rel="noopener">WICE: Expect Earnings to Continue Growing YoY in 2H20,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> circle back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wice-logistics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26172:1" rel="noopener">Wice Logistics (WICE TB)</a> after going to the company's analyst briefing. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hana-covid-19-impact-has-passed" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42575" rel="noopener">HANA: Covid-19 Impact Has Passed,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisits one of Thailand's leading electronics manufacturing services companies. </p><h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-banks-most-to-recover" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42493" rel="noopener">Indonesia Banks – Most To Recover?,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zooms in on the potential recovery to come for Indonesian Banks. </p><div><div><div id="ember9100"><div><section><div id="ember9112"><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-banks-oversized-dividends" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42535" rel="noopener">Asia Banks – Oversized Dividends,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zeros in on dividend payments for Asian banks during the pandemic period. </p></div></div></section></div></div></div></div><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-rakyat-indonesia-pondering-pricing-on-a-promised-new-issue" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42524" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Pondering Pricing on a Promised New Issue</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> takes a look at the proposed US$1bn bond issue from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> and finds it appealing. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> could price a potential five-year senior unsecured </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma
Macro InsightsIn Thai Macro Watch (August): The New Tech Wars, Chinese Flood, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA five global events and their impact on Thai equities.Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Building A Road to Recovery, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits one of Indonesia's leading retailers after a call with management.In AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - The Landed Logistics Player,Angus Mackintosh revisits this Indonesian chemical and fuel distributor with an increasing contribution coming from its JIIPE industrial estate. In SATS: From Serving 22.5M Pax in 1Q20 -&gt; To Serving 200K Pax in 1Q21. Houston We Have a Problem. CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Singapore airport maintenance leader post its recent numbers. In Permata Bank Mandatory Takeover Launched. Finally.Travis Lundy revisits the Bank Permata (BNLI IJ) deal as it enters its final stage.In SPRIME: Good Point of Entry, Singha Connection Could Add Further Upside,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on SPRIME with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt11.20, implying an upside of 21% from the current share price. In AIMIRT: Good Growth Outlook, but Already Priced In initiates coverage on AIM Industrial Growth Freehold and Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (AIMIRT TB) with a HOLD recommendation based on a target price of Bt14.30, implying an upside of 6% from the current share price. In TEAMG: Cost-Savings and Government Stimulus to Drive Profit,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits TEAM Consulting Engineering and Management (TEAMG TB) and maintains a BUY recommendation on the company as he increases the target price to Bt2.81 from Bt2.42, implying an upside of 17% from the current share price. In SISB: Good Entry Point for Investment in Private Schools,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on SPRIME with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt11.20, implying an upside of 21% from the current share price.In SFLEX: Staying Behind Key Players in the Market,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on Starflex PCL (SFLEX TB) with a SELL recommendation based on a target price of Bt8.90, implying a downside of 28% from the current price. In BOFFICE: Asset Expansion Motivates the Upside,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on Bhiraj Office Leasehold REIT (BOFFICE TB) with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt14.10, implying an upside of 18% from the current share price. In ALL: Valuation Remains Undemanding, Expect Further Upside, Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits All Inspire Development PCL (ALL TB), where he has a Buy recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 31% from the current price. In M: Rapid SSSG Recovery with Potential Growth from Seafood Restaurant, our friends at Country Group circle back to MK Restaurants Group (M TB) after attending the recent analyst briefing, where they came away more positive with signs of an SSSG recovery post lockdown easing.In EGCO: Positive 2H20 Earnings Outlook from Better Overseas Performance,Country Group revisit Electricity Generating (EGCO TB) after the company's positive analyst briefing. In WICE: Expect Earnings to Continue Growing YoY in 2H20,Country Group circle back to Wice Logistics (WICE TB) after going to the company's analyst briefing. In HANA: Covid-19 Impact Has Passed,Country Group revisits one of Thailand's leading electronics manufacturing services companies. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Indonesia Banks – Most To Recover?, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush zooms in on the potential recovery to come for Indonesian Banks. In Asia Banks – Oversized Dividends,Daniel Tabbush zeros in on dividend payments for Asian banks during the pandemic period. Credit InsightsIn Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Pondering Pricing on a Promised New IssueHank Calenti, CFA takes a look at the proposed US$1bn bond issue from Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) and finds it appealing. Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) could price a potential five-year senior unsecured 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Ace Hardwear, Thai Macro, and Indonesian Banks

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: justify;">In this Smartkarma Original, we seek to study how diversity and incentives influence stock performance and profitability. We tallied diversity and incentive data related to the board of directors, management, and employees across major economies in Asia and picked top 10 companies of each country in terms of market capitalization. We chose to exclude major companies listed in exchanges of other economies such as Tencent and Alibaba to limit our sample size.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Then we devised diversity and incentive scores to assign to those companies and compare those scores against a 5-year trend of their return on shareholders’ equity (ROE) ratios and 1-year stock performance from 1-July-19 to 30-June-20 over its corresponding exchange indices.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The report covers diversity vs. incentives in Asia, diversity score vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, incentives vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, diversity + incentives scores vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, companies with top and bottom diversity + incentive scores, countries with top and bottom average diversity + incentive scores, and incentive score vs. staffing cost trend. </p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The results show that companies with high diversity scores do perform well. A high diversity score also has a positive impact on the ROE trend, based on our regression analysis at 95% confidence level. We found that employee incentives are not significant as staff diversity but they can still have an influence on company performances at a lower 90% confidence level.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">We note that this study is at the preliminary stage and stock performance is a function of many factors, not only the diversity scores that we concluded. Needless to say, our diversity and incentive scores also reflect the level of disclosures by selected companies, not necessarily the actual practice within each company. Our diversity and incentive scores are also not a credit rating or ranking with peers and, hence, do not reflect default probability of selected companies.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">We caution that in Asia, many diversity trends in the West may not apply. The fact that many Asian business communities may remain less sensitive to equal opportunities for females, disabled persons, or LGBTQ communities could make returns of Asian companies less correlated to diversity than in the West. Likewise, additional incentives in some countries in Asia may not be necessary as employees’ strong performance (i.e. in Japan) is a norm, according to the prevalent work culture.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Bondcritic is developing a scoring model, which includes environment, social development, and corporate governance; the last of which cover diversity and incentives. This report is the first of the series to uncover shenanigans in the Asian corporate sector.</p>

In this Smartkarma Original, we seek to study how diversity and incentives influence stock performance and profitability. We tallied diversity and incentive data related to the board of directors, management, and employees across major economies in Asia and picked top 10 companies of each country in terms of market capitalization. We chose to exclude major companies listed in exchanges of other economies such as Tencent and Alibaba to limit our sample size.
Then we devised diversity and incentive scores to assign to those companies and compare those scores against a 5-year trend of their return on shareholders’ equity (ROE) ratios and 1-year stock performance from 1-July-19 to 30-June-20 over its corresponding exchange indices.
The report covers diversity vs. incentives in Asia, diversity score vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, incentives vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, diversity + incentives scores vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, companies with top and bottom diversity + incentive scores, countries with top and bottom average diversity + incentive scores, and incentive score vs. staffing cost trend. 
The results show that companies with high diversity scores do perform well. A high diversity score also has a positive impact on the ROE trend, based on our regression analysis at 95% confidence level. We found that employee incentives are not significant as staff diversity but they can still have an influence on company performances at a lower 90% confidence level.
We note that this study is at the preliminary stage and stock performance is a function of many factors, not only the diversity scores that we concluded. Needless to say, our diversity and incentive scores also reflect the level of disclosures by selected companies, not necessarily the actual practice within each company. Our diversity and incentive scores are also not a credit rating or ranking with peers and, hence, do not reflect default probability of selected companies.
We caution that in Asia, many diversity trends in the West may not apply. The fact that many Asian business communities may remain less sensitive to equal opportunities for females, disabled persons, or LGBTQ communities could make returns of Asian companies less correlated to diversity than in the West. Likewise, additional incentives in some countries in Asia may not be necessary as employees’ strong performance (i.e. in Japan) is a norm, according to the prevalent work culture.
Bondcritic is developing a scoring model, which includes environment, social development, and corporate governance; the last of which cover diversity and incentives. This report is the first of the series to uncover shenanigans in the Asian corporate sector.

Asian Governance: Diversity & Incentives Through the Cultural Lens

Singapore

Singapore Airlines Limited provides air transportation, engineering, pilot training, air charter, and tour wholesaling services. The Company's airline operation covers Asia, Europe, the Americas, South West Pacific, and Africa.

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Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

Airport of Thailand (AOT): Soon or Later?

The Thai government is in talks with China to exempt Chinese tourists from the 14-day quarantine by 2021. The protest will bring weakness to the...

Henry Soediarko

Rolls Royce Rights Roll Right Over You

Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) this morning announced a rights offering. It's a biggie. It makes no bo

Travis Lundy

Tongcheng-ELong (780 HK) Q2 Results Reflect Changing Travel Patterns, Stubbornly High OpEx

point 1 point 2 point 3 conclusions

Tracking Traffic

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Ace Hardwear, Thai Macro, and Indonesian Banks

This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable...

Angus Mackintosh

Asian Governance: Diversity & Incentives Through the Cultural Lens

In this Smartkarma Original, we seek to study how diversity and incentives influence stock performance and profitability. We tallied diversity and...

Bondcritic

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