Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

The ban on dining-in as part of the stricter measures by the Singapore government starting today until next month has caused some fears in the market and ComfortDelgro is not spared. Singapore is on target to reach 2/3 of the country fully vaccinated by the 9th of Aug 2021 during the National Day hence there should be some restrictions easing as the Singapore government has to open the economy at some stage which means more mobility and reinstatement of dining-in among others. The government has mentioned that Singapore will live alongside COVID-19 as it expects to shift from pandemic to endemic. 
While mall operators such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55:1" rel="noopener">Capitaland (CAPL SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/city-developments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:57:1" rel="noopener">City Developments (CIT SP)</a> have to give some form of rent relief to their tenants, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a>does not need to give relief to its drivers and mobility does not seem to drastically decrease. Investors should expect some restrictions on easing measures during the National Day period that will lift <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> share price. 
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source: analyst
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The ban on dining-in as part of the stricter measures by the Singapore government starting today until next month has caused some fears in the market and ComfortDelgro is not spared. Singapore is on target to reach 2/3 of the country fully vaccinated by the 9th of Aug 2021 during the National Day hence there should be some restrictions easing as the Singapore government has to open the economy at some stage which means more mobility and reinstatement of dining-in among others. The government has mentioned that Singapore will live alongside COVID-19 as it expects to shift from pandemic to endemic. 
While mall operators such as Capitaland (CAPL SP) and City Developments (CIT SP) have to give some form of rent relief to their tenants, Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)does not need to give relief to its drivers and mobility does not seem to drastically decrease. Investors should expect some restrictions on easing measures during the National Day period that will lift Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) share price. 


source: analyst


ComfortDelgro (CD): Buy On (Temp) Weakness

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> path to recovery is quite clear - vaccine, borders reopening, and shorter or abolishment of the quarantine requirement. The first two are in the works with countries around the world racing against each other for a higher and faster vaccination. Shorten or abolishment of quarantine requirement may be difficult, even for those who are already fully vaccinated, until the next quarter at least. The Phuket reopening sandbox will be a proof of concept of whether 1) Thailand's health infrastructure is ready to accept foreign tourists and 2) people are ready to travel again once vaccinated.
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source: Reuters

Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) path to recovery is quite clear - vaccine, borders reopening, and shorter or abolishment of the quarantine requirement. The first two are in the works with countries around the world racing against each other for a higher and faster vaccination. Shorten or abolishment of quarantine requirement may be difficult, even for those who are already fully vaccinated, until the next quarter at least. The Phuket reopening sandbox will be a proof of concept of whether 1) Thailand's health infrastructure is ready to accept foreign tourists and 2) people are ready to travel again once vaccinated.

source: Reuters

Airport of Thailand (AOT): Phuket Sandbox

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

BOC Aviation | BOCAVI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boc-aviation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22689:1" rel="noopener">(2588 HK)</a> 
As a follow-up on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a>'s Smartkarma Original <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-pac-airports-ups-but-mostly-downs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51855" rel="noopener">Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs</a>, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.
BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.
Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  
We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021. By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. 
We are buyers at book value. The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.
Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary

BOC Aviation | BOCAVI (2588 HK) 
As a follow-up on David Blennerhassett's Smartkarma Original Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.
BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.
Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  
We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021. By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. 
We are buyers at book value. The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.
Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sing Air, JD Logistics, China Mobile, Angang/Bengang, Link Admin, Xiaomi

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a> 's share price has enjoyed a handsome recovery in the past year and the gutsy bottom picker traders have made around 136% since May 2020. Has the recovery trade been priced in? If not, how much upside is left? Or it is all just a euphoria? 
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A channel check with flight processing software companies reveals that the recovery in the number of air travel passengers is real. There is of course a risk that there will be delayed recovery due to the emergence of the new variant or slower-than-expected vaccination exercise in the major part of the world.
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Apart from that, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a> looks like a buy to me especially when it has a decent amount of cash on the balance sheet.

Samsonite (1910 HK) 's share price has enjoyed a handsome recovery in the past year and the gutsy bottom picker traders have made around 136% since May 2020. Has the recovery trade been priced in? If not, how much upside is left? Or it is all just a euphoria? 

A channel check with flight processing software companies reveals that the recovery in the number of air travel passengers is real. There is of course a risk that there will be delayed recovery due to the emergence of the new variant or slower-than-expected vaccination exercise in the major part of the world.

Apart from that, Samsonite (1910 HK) looks like a buy to me especially when it has a decent amount of cash on the balance sheet. 

Samsonite (1910): Channel Checks Recovery

Singapore

Singapore Airlines Limited provides air transportation, engineering, pilot training, air charter, and tour wholesaling services. The Company's airline operation covers Asia, Europe, the Americas, South West Pacific, and Africa.

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Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

ComfortDelgro (CD): Buy On (Temp) Weakness

Capitaland and City Dev are to provide rent relief to their tenants, Comfort does not need to give relief to its drivers, and SG mobility rate is...

Henry Soediarko

Airport of Thailand (AOT): Phuket Sandbox

The Phuket reopening sandbox will be a proof of concept of whether 1) Thailand's health infrastructure is ready to accept foreign tourists and 2)...

Henry Soediarko

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

As downstream players continue to hemorrhage cash, over 99% of BOCAVI’s aircraft are still cash-generating. Valuation is undemanding for a high...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sing Air, JD Logistics, China Mobile, Angang/Bengang, Link Admin, Xiaomi

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Samsonite (1910): Channel Checks Recovery

Air travelers has started to recover implying that Samsonite's business recovery story is solid while the management has also coped efficiently...

Henry Soediarko

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