Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 5th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,769.7 million, led by information technology, materials, industrials, and offset by communication services, real estate, utilities.</li>
<li>We note that outflows have been consecutive for four weeks and highlight outflows for CATL (300750 CH).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 5th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,769.7 million, led by information technology, materials, industrials, and offset by communication services, real estate, utilities.
We note that outflows have been consecutive for four weeks and highlight outflows for CATL (300750 CH).


Northbound Flows (Jul 5th): 4 Weeks of Outflows

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Shengyi released its 3Q results. Revenue was RMB4,467mn with YoY growth of 3.8% growth and QoQ growth of 8.3%.</li><li>Net profit was RMB344mn with YoY growth of 31.6% and QoQ growth of 12.0%.</li><li>GPM expanded from 19.7%/18.9% in 1Q23/2Q23 to 20.0% in 3Q23, and its NPM expanded from 6.6%/7.4% in 1Q23/2Q23 to 7.7% in 3Q23.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shengyi released its 3Q results. Revenue was RMB4,467mn with YoY growth of 3.8% growth and QoQ growth of 8.3%.Net profit was RMB344mn with YoY growth of 31.6% and QoQ growth of 12.0%.GPM expanded from 19.7%/18.9% in 1Q23/2Q23 to 20.0% in 3Q23, and its NPM expanded from 6.6%/7.4% in 1Q23/2Q23 to 7.7% in 3Q23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) – Decent 3Q Results

<ul><li>CCL and PCB industries faced ongoing challenges that added pressure on Shengyi Tech’s performance.</li><li>The Company’s 1H23 revenue/NP to shareholders declined by 15.9%/ 40.7% YoY to RMB7,880mn/ RMB555mn.</li><li>GPM fell to 19.3% in 1H23 vs. 23.4%/20.5% in 1H22/2H22. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CCL and PCB industries faced ongoing challenges that added pressure on Shengyi Tech’s performance.The Company’s 1H23 revenue/NP to shareholders declined by 15.9%/ 40.7% YoY to RMB7,880mn/ RMB555mn.GPM fell to 19.3% in 1H23 vs. 23.4%/20.5% in 1H22/2H22. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) – Expect Modest Sequential Growth in 2H23

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Global PCB market: The global PCB market showed minimal growth in 2022, with a modest 1.0% YoY increase, but it is expected to face a substantial decline of 4.1% in 2023.</li><li>In terms of quarterly performance, both 1Q23 and 2Q23 have recorded steep declines of more than 20% YoY, signaling a rather bleak outlook for the global PCB market.</li><li>Moving forward, we expect the global PCB market will persistently encounter macroeconomic challenges due to weakened consumer demand and the ongoing destocking cycle among downstream industries in 2H23. We may see some gradual recovery in 2024.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global PCB market: The global PCB market showed minimal growth in 2022, with a modest 1.0% YoY increase, but it is expected to face a substantial decline of 4.1% in 2023.In terms of quarterly performance, both 1Q23 and 2Q23 have recorded steep declines of more than 20% YoY, signaling a rather bleak outlook for the global PCB market.Moving forward, we expect the global PCB market will persistently encounter macroeconomic challenges due to weakened consumer demand and the ongoing destocking cycle among downstream industries in 2H23. We may see some gradual recovery in 2024.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Western Superconducting Techno / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over 85% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI500 Index</a>, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.4% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 7.22bn.</li>
<li>With the market being stabilised through the ETF route, the index constituents have outperformed the non-index constituents over the last 6-7 weeks. That could reverse over the near term.</li>
</ul>


Over 85% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.4% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 7.22bn.
With the market being stabilised through the ETF route, the index constituents have outperformed the non-index constituents over the last 6-7 weeks. That could reverse over the near term.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

China

Shengyi Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets electronic components. The Company's products include copper coated panels, printed circuit boards, and other related products.

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Shengyi Technology (600183 CH)

Northbound Flows (Jul 5th): 4 Weeks of Outflows

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week. We estimate the outflows to be USD1.8bn and highlight flows for CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) – Decent 3Q Results

Shengyi released its 3Q results. Revenue was RMB4,467mn with YoY growth of 3.8% growth and QoQ growth of 8.3%. Net profit was RMB344mn with YoY...

CMB International

Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) – Expect Modest Sequential Growth in 2H23

he Company’s 1H23 revenue/NP to shareholders declined by 15.9%/ 40.7% YoY to RMB7,880mn/ RMB555mn. GPM fell to 19.3% in 1H23 vs. 23.4%/20.5% in...

CMB International

China PCB Sector- Weak Market in 2023

Global PCB market: The global PCB market showed minimal growth in 2022, with a modest 1.0% YoY increase, but it is expected to face a substantial...

CMB International

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

There should be 50 changes in Dec with a big sector skew. Turnover is ~10% and 31 stocks will have 1x ADV to trade. Huge ETF inflows have led to...

Brian Freitas

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