Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hoymiles Power Electronics / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The index committee has continued to use a 6 month minimum listing history leading to five changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover is estimated at 4.07% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 2,265m. Passive trackers will need to trade between 1-5 days ADV on the adds/deletes.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes and the CSI500 Index since the end of the review period. We'd look to buy the adds and hedge with CSI500 Index futures.</li>
</ul>


The index committee has continued to use a 6 month minimum listing history leading to five changes to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) in September.
One-Way turnover is estimated at 4.07% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 2,265m. Passive trackers will need to trade between 1-5 days ADV on the adds/deletes.
The adds have outperformed the deletes and the CSI500 Index since the end of the review period. We'd look to buy the adds and hedge with CSI500 Index futures.


STAR50 Index Rebalance: Adds Continue to Outperform as Changes Are Announced

<ul>
<li>Over 96% of the way through the review period, we see 1 change using a 12 month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6 month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>We expect the index committee to continue using the shorter minimum listing history since the potential adds have much larger market caps than the potential deletes.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month and there could be more once the current consolidation is complete.</li>
</ul>


Over 96% of the way through the review period, we see 1 change using a 12 month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6 month minimum listing history.
We expect the index committee to continue using the shorter minimum listing history since the potential adds have much larger market caps than the potential deletes.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month and there could be more once the current consolidation is complete.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Adds Outperforming the Deletes

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to the centralized procurement in PRC market and decreasing volume of operations in overseas markets during pandemic, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microport-scientific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4487:1" rel="noopener">Microport Scientific (853 HK)</a>’s 2021 performance missed expectations. </li>
<li>Even if Microport could finally digest the negative impact of centralized procurement, its “unique” development mode would still put pressure and uncertainties on future performance/outlook, leading to lower-than-expected results.</li>
<li>Our earnings estimate of Microport in 2022 could be about HK$-1.7, and revenue estimate could be about HK$7.3 billion. It’s quite possible that the Company will not end up profitable.</li>
</ul>


Due to the centralized procurement in PRC market and decreasing volume of operations in overseas markets during pandemic, Microport Scientific (853 HK)’s 2021 performance missed expectations. 
Even if Microport could finally digest the negative impact of centralized procurement, its “unique” development mode would still put pressure and uncertainties on future performance/outlook, leading to lower-than-expected results.
Our earnings estimate of Microport in 2022 could be about HK$-1.7, and revenue estimate could be about HK$7.3 billion. It’s quite possible that the Company will not end up profitable.


Microport Scientific (853.HK)-The “unique” Development Mode Leads to Lower-Than-Expected Performance

<ul>
<li>With only one change expected in September using a 12 month minimum listing history, we expect the index committee to continue using a 6 month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>That will see the maximum of 5 changes that are permitted at a single rebalance resulting in a one-way turnover just shy of 5%.</li>
<li>Over the last few rebalances, the adds have outperformed the deletes post the end of the review period. That's expected given passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock.</li>
</ul>


With only one change expected in September using a 12 month minimum listing history, we expect the index committee to continue using a 6 month minimum listing history.
That will see the maximum of 5 changes that are permitted at a single rebalance resulting in a one-way turnover just shy of 5%.
Over the last few rebalances, the adds have outperformed the deletes post the end of the review period. That's expected given passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Change Is the Only Constant

Equity Capital Markets

OrbusNeich Medical Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orbusneich-medical-group-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34918:1" rel="noopener">OrbusNeich Medical Group (NEICHZ HK)</a> has a rich pipeline with a leadership position in the PCI balloon markets.</li>
<li>Its global business layout would also help the Company “hedge” the negative domestic policy impact or regulation changes.</li>
<li>However, the fierce competition, market pattern, industry characteristics, centralized procurement and other concerns should not be neglected.</li>
</ul>



OrbusNeich Medical Group (NEICHZ HK) has a rich pipeline with a leadership position in the PCI balloon markets.
Its global business layout would also help the Company “hedge” the negative domestic policy impact or regulation changes.
However, the fierce competition, market pattern, industry characteristics, centralized procurement and other concerns should not be neglected.


Pre-IPO OrbusNeich Medical Group - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

China

Shanghai MicroPort Endovascular MedTech (Gruop) Co., Ltd. develops and sells medical instruments. The Company manufactures and sells peripheral vascular stents, aortic balloon dilation catheters, aortic stent grafts, and other related products. Shanghai MicroPort Endovascular MedTech (Gruop) markets its products primarily throughout China with limited overseas.

Shanghai MicroPort Endovascula (688016 CH)

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Shanghai MicroPort Endovascula (688016 CH)

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Adds Continue to Outperform as Changes Are Announced

There are 5 changes to the STAR50 in September as the index committee sticks to a 6 month minimum listing history. The adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Adds Outperforming the Deletes

There could be 5 changes if the index committee continues using a 6 month minimum listing history. The adds have outperformed the deletes over the...

Brian Freitas

Microport Scientific (853.HK)-The “unique” Development Mode Leads to Lower-Than-Expected Performance

Microport’s 2021 performance missed expectations due to VBP and pandemic. Its “unique” development mode will lead to lower-than...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Change Is the Only Constant

We expect the index committee to continue using a 6 month minimum listing history and that will lead to 5 changes in September. Buying the adds and...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO OrbusNeich Medical Group - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

The rich pipeline and large global business will help OrbusNeich “hedge” negative domestic policy impact. But fierce competition, slow progress in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)