Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value</li>
<li>To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost</li>
<li>We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations</li>
</ul>


Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value
To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost
We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations


Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 14th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Sensetime, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 14th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Sensetime, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 14th): Sensetime, SMIC, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 31st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Jd, Petrochina, Kingsoft, Link Reit, Bidu.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 31st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Jd, Petrochina, Kingsoft, Link Reit, Bidu.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Jd, Petrochina, Kingsoft, Link Reit, Bidu

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With no changes made at the March rebalance, we are still stuck at 76 index constituents. And it's been a year later than originally planned to reach 80 index constituents.</li>
<li>We list 10 potential inclusions in June. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to around 5% one-way turnover, so there could be a mix of larger and smaller stocks added.</li>
<li>There will be at least 1x ADV to trade on nearly all inclusions. Short interest is over 4% of float on some stocks and there has been a recent jump.</li>
</ul>


With no changes made at the March rebalance, we are still stuck at 76 index constituents. And it's been a year later than originally planned to reach 80 index constituents.
We list 10 potential inclusions in June. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to around 5% one-way turnover, so there could be a mix of larger and smaller stocks added.
There will be at least 1x ADV to trade on nearly all inclusions. Short interest is over 4% of float on some stocks and there has been a recent jump.


Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: A Year Later Than Planned - 80 Members at Last?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Mortgage /: Five things to know about early mortgage repayments in China</li><li>Sandstorm /: China hit by yet another sandstorm as capital chokes in dust cloud</li><li>Brokerages /: Bear market saps Chinese brokerages’ 2022 earnings</li></ul>

Mortgage /: Five things to know about early mortgage repayments in ChinaSandstorm /: China hit by yet another sandstorm as capital chokes in dust cloudBrokerages /: Bear market saps Chinese brokerages’ 2022 earnings

CX Daily: Five Things to Know About Early Mortgage Repayments in China

China

SenseTime Group Inc. offers information technology services. The Company develops artificial intelligence software products, computer vision software products, and other products. SenseTime Group provides its services throughout China.

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SenseTime Group (20 HK)

Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

The NAV could be 10%-15% lower than stated now at the mid-May results release, due to a further squeeze in private company valuations; this would...

Victor Galliano

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 14th): Sensetime, SMIC, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Sensetime, SMIC, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Jd, Petrochina, Kingsoft, Link Reit, Bidu

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 31st and highlight short interest changes in Jd, Petrochina, Kingsoft,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: A Year Later Than Planned - 80 Members at Last?

We highlight 10 potential adds in June. Adding all 10 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 5%, so fewer stocks (some large, some small) will...

Brian Freitas

CX Daily: Five Things to Know About Early Mortgage Repayments in China

Mortgage /: Five things to know about early mortgage repayments in China Sandstorm /: China hit by yet another sandstorm as capital chokes in dust...

Caixin Global

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