Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Nominal GDP increased 6.5%QoQsaar, but the GDP deflator was up 8%, so real GDP declined 1.4% in Q1CY22. With core PCE inflation at 5.4%, brace for 50bp hike next week.</li>
<li>With M2 growing faster in Apr'20-Mar'21 than any time in the past 150 years, the recent surge in inflation is precisely as we'd predicted.  The overheating economy needs monetary tightening. </li>
<li>Imports (+17.7% in Q1CY22) subtracted 2.5% from GDP and inventory-destocking subtracted 0.84%. These will be less negative as monetary policy tightens,  with FF rate rising to 2.75% by end-2022. </li>
</ul>


Nominal GDP increased 6.5%QoQsaar, but the GDP deflator was up 8%, so real GDP declined 1.4% in Q1CY22. With core PCE inflation at 5.4%, brace for 50bp hike next week.
With M2 growing faster in Apr'20-Mar'21 than any time in the past 150 years, the recent surge in inflation is precisely as we'd predicted.  The overheating economy needs monetary tightening. 
Imports (+17.7% in Q1CY22) subtracted 2.5% from GDP and inventory-destocking subtracted 0.84%. These will be less negative as monetary policy tightens,  with FF rate rising to 2.75% by end-2022. 


US Continues to Overheat, Reflected in a Seemingly-Weak GDP Print

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are getting the test of the lows we have been calling for, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE.</li>
<li>There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows.</li>
<li>We need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place</li>
</ul>


We are getting the test of the lows we have been calling for, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE.
There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows.
We need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place


Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying; Major Indexes At/Near Support

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index / Technical Analysis

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

<ul>
<li>The bullish breakout on the VIX Index looks similar to January</li>
<li>Further gains are expected, probably this week and as we enter May</li>
<li>As a consequence expect continued losses on the S&amp;P 500</li>
</ul>


The bullish breakout on the VIX Index looks similar to January
Further gains are expected, probably this week and as we enter May
As a consequence expect continued losses on the S&amp;P 500


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>SPX closing on Friday's lows after an impulsive drop sets a more bearish tone for an undershoot barring an impressive recovery.</li>
<li>The undertone of the market shifted on Friday as <strong>defensive sectors took a hit</strong>. If this continues it would induce a broader market sell off (bigger breakdown).</li>
<li>Russell 2000 1,900 is the level to watch to lead a harder US cycle decline followed by NDX 13k dual lows. Cycle inflection timeline.</li>
</ul>


SPX closing on Friday's lows after an impulsive drop sets a more bearish tone for an undershoot barring an impressive recovery.
The undertone of the market shifted on Friday as defensive sectors took a hit. If this continues it would induce a broader market sell off (bigger breakdown).
Russell 2000 1,900 is the level to watch to lead a harder US cycle decline followed by NDX 13k dual lows. Cycle inflection timeline.


SPX Hard Close as Defensives Begin to Bend

House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

<ul><li>The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the bond yields have reached very high level.</li><li>BofA: the long Treasury Trade - Recently the Bank of America strategist team posted a note in which they suggest to go long on U.S. Treasury.</li><li>Earnings: the moment of truth?  - In the last few weeks there have been a lot of earnings revisions, mostly to the down side.</li></ul>

The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the bond yields have reached very high level.BofA: the long Treasury Trade - Recently the Bank of America strategist team posted a note in which they suggest to go long on U.S. Treasury.Earnings: the moment of truth?  - In the last few weeks there have been a lot of earnings revisions, mostly to the down side.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US Continues to Overheat, Reflected in a Seemingly-Weak GDP Print

GDP fell 1.4%QoQ in 1Q2022 because 6.5% nominal GDP growth was overwhelmed by 8% rise in GDP deflator; 17.7% rise in imports signals economic...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying; Major Indexes At/Near Support

Now that we have seen indiscriminate panic selling, we are now looking for panic buying in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is...

Vermilion Research

VIX Index on the Move

Further gains on the VIX Index after the breakout on Friday warrants serious concern for the S&P 500 in the near term. Further stock market...

Shyam Devani

SPX Hard Close as Defensives Begin to Bend

SPX closing on Friday's lows after an impulsive drop sets a more bearish tone for an undershoot barring an impressive recovery.

Thomas Schroeder

Earnings: are positive surprises over?

The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the...

Market Radar