Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have outlined our bullish DXY zone at 103 but what if the dollar front runs a bull turn as the bulk of near-term yield weakness is baked in.</li>
<li>USD lows versus Asian FX shows the ability to turn USD bullish early.</li>
<li>SPX rise off of 3,900 pivot support after cracking RSI and price wedge supports a concern if we cannot muster a near term reaction rise.</li>
</ul>


We have outlined our bullish DXY zone at 103 but what if the dollar front runs a bull turn as the bulk of near-term yield weakness is baked in.
USD lows versus Asian FX shows the ability to turn USD bullish early.
SPX rise off of 3,900 pivot support after cracking RSI and price wedge supports a concern if we cannot muster a near term reaction rise.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). </li>
<li>The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280</li>
<li>As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.</li>
</ul>


Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). 
The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280
As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.


Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Next week is the last big week of data releases for the year</li>
<li>With CPI data and also a FED meeting there is lots of potential volatility to come</li>
<li>We look at what is priced in to the derivatives market and suggest some trade ideas</li>
</ul>


Next week is the last big week of data releases for the year
With CPI data and also a FED meeting there is lots of potential volatility to come
We look at what is priced in to the derivatives market and suggest some trade ideas


EQD | SPX Index/NDX Index : Big Data Week Coming Up-We Look at What Is Priced In

<ul>
<li>Our SPX bull view to 4,100 was satisfied, (Layer out of weaker longs) and now shifting to a more tactical stance of buying the 3,950-support zone to retest 4,100.</li>
<li>The current rise shares a number of characteristics with the summer counter trend rally. Weak spots are noted in small caps, NDX and Japan.</li>
<li>DXY 103 is our turn zone for a low in yield and SPX peak and topping process in December head of a more bearish Q1</li>
</ul>


Our SPX bull view to 4,100 was satisfied, (Layer out of weaker longs) and now shifting to a more tactical stance of buying the 3,950-support zone to retest 4,100.
The current rise shares a number of characteristics with the summer counter trend rally. Weak spots are noted in small caps, NDX and Japan.
DXY 103 is our turn zone for a low in yield and SPX peak and topping process in December head of a more bearish Q1


Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Rising US inflation since 2021 H2 has not produced the same prolific P/E multiple compression witnessed in the 1970s,  based on the premise that higher inflation will not be protracted.</li>
<li>Since the end of the last recession, companies have resorted to price increases to preserve operating margins, thereby generating economy-wide inflation and some downward pressure on P/E multiples.</li>
<li>Sticky US inflation raises the spectre of equity returns being earnings-driven, while only those companies enjoying positive real earnings growth will be considered for higher valuations.</li>
</ul>


Rising US inflation since 2021 H2 has not produced the same prolific P/E multiple compression witnessed in the 1970s,  based on the premise that higher inflation will not be protracted.
Since the end of the last recession, companies have resorted to price increases to preserve operating margins, thereby generating economy-wide inflation and some downward pressure on P/E multiples.
Sticky US inflation raises the spectre of equity returns being earnings-driven, while only those companies enjoying positive real earnings growth will be considered for higher valuations.


Efforts to Preserve Operating Margins Produce Inflation and US Equity Valuation Concerns

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

USD Low Gels Dec Risk Peak

We have outlined our bullish DXY zone at 103 but what if the dollar front runs a bull turn as the bulk of near-term yield weakness is baked in. SPX...

Thomas Schroeder

Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

$SPX unable to sustain a breakout above 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, $IWM remains below $190 resistance, $DJI could not sustain a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX Index/NDX Index : Big Data Week Coming Up-We Look at What Is Priced In

We look at the big upcoming data points in the US and the FED rate decision. We consider what moves are priced into markets and identify trading...

Simon Harris

SPX Tactical Buy Dips

Our SPX bull view to 4,100 was satisfied, (Layer out of weaker longs) and now shifting to a more tactical stance of buying the 3,950-support zone...

Thomas Schroeder

Efforts to Preserve Operating Margins Produce Inflation and US Equity Valuation Concerns

US corporations have focussed on preserving high operating margins for many years. Recent price increases aimed at maintaining margins have simply...

DeSaque Macro Research