Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.</li>
<li>Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.
Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.


More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>SPX macro top and sell call from 4,150 targets 3,300/200 where a base and low is expected ahead of a more bullish 2H23. </li>
<li>Cycle: Equity weak bias into January 8 if not closer to the 18th. From January 20 onwards we see a tactical rally cycle unfolding (still within the more bearish Q1 framework).</li>
<li>Asian positioning outlined with charts and details to follow once markets come online.</li>
</ul>


SPX macro top and sell call from 4,150 targets 3,300/200 where a base and low is expected ahead of a more bullish 2H23. 
Cycle: Equity weak bias into January 8 if not closer to the 18th. From January 20 onwards we see a tactical rally cycle unfolding (still within the more bearish Q1 framework).
Asian positioning outlined with charts and details to follow once markets come online.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> rebalance was implemented at the close on Friday and there were a bunch of review cutoffs on the same day.</li>
<li>Passive Hang Seng trackers need to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> at the close on 4 January following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> in-specie distribution.</li>
<li>We take a look at flows to Asian focused ETFs over the course of 2022. A lot of winners in terms of AUM, but a few losers too.</li>
</ul>


The Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) rebalance was implemented at the close on Friday and there were a bunch of review cutoffs on the same day.
Passive Hang Seng trackers need to sell Meituan (3690 HK) at the close on 4 January following Tencent (700 HK) in-specie distribution.
We take a look at flows to Asian focused ETFs over the course of 2022. A lot of winners in terms of AUM, but a few losers too.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan, S&P/ASX All Tech, 2022 ETF Flows

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

With market dynamics still bearish, we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports (3910 on SPX, $177.50 on IWM, and $279 on QQQ) are likely...

Vermilion Research

2023 Kickoff Trades

SPX macro top and sell call from 4,150 targets 3,300/200 where a base and low is expected ahead of a more bullish 2H23. Tactical low due near...

Thomas Schroeder

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan, S&P/ASX All Tech, 2022 ETF Flows

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A changes). We also highlight large...

Brian Freitas