Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>M2 contracted 1.3%YoY in Dec'22, its first YoY contraction in 80+ years. Since core PCE inflation was still 4.4%YoY that month, more monetary contraction is needed.  </li>
<li>The 10yr-2yr yield spread is -0.76pp (10th Feb'23), while ISM manufacturing new orders have slipped to 42.5, both unequivocally signaling that recession will likely begin next quarter (Q2 2023). </li>
<li>US real GDP decelerated for 4 consecutive quarters (to +1%YoY in 4Q2022), but the labour market appears tight merely because the participation rate is 4pp lower than 2008.</li>
</ul>


M2 contracted 1.3%YoY in Dec'22, its first YoY contraction in 80+ years. Since core PCE inflation was still 4.4%YoY that month, more monetary contraction is needed.  
The 10yr-2yr yield spread is -0.76pp (10th Feb'23), while ISM manufacturing new orders have slipped to 42.5, both unequivocally signaling that recession will likely begin next quarter (Q2 2023). 
US real GDP decelerated for 4 consecutive quarters (to +1%YoY in 4Q2022), but the labour market appears tight merely because the participation rate is 4pp lower than 2008.


US: Recession Imminent, as M2 Needs to Contract Further to Squeeze Out Inflation

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Liquidity trends are RAPIDLY on the rise in China and Japan in contrast to the West</li>
<li>Global liquidity probably bottomed in November unless BoJ turns around soon</li>
<li>The PBoC is currently helping global equities perform via new liquidity/credit</li>
</ul>


Liquidity trends are RAPIDLY on the rise in China and Japan in contrast to the West
Global liquidity probably bottomed in November unless BoJ turns around soon
The PBoC is currently helping global equities perform via new liquidity/credit


Macro Strategy– Has Global Liquidity (And the Equity Market) Bottomed Already?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The stage is set for an equity/risk off decline after the SPX met our 4,200 rally objective as have Asian and European indices.</li>
<li>We are treating the DXY 101 low as a key USD turn support that will see dollar upside follow through on the back of a bullish 10 yr yield breakout.</li>
<li>Equity weakness due from mid- Feb into Q2. NDX is hovering near pivotal lows (tech/growth U/P). Scales are tipped toward new lows.</li>
</ul>


The stage is set for an equity/risk off decline after the SPX met our 4,200 rally objective as have Asian and European indices.
We are treating the DXY 101 low as a key USD turn support that will see dollar upside follow through on the back of a bullish 10 yr yield breakout.
Equity weakness due from mid- Feb into Q2. NDX is hovering near pivotal lows (tech/growth U/P). Scales are tipped toward new lows.


Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Deal terminations return to the spotlight. The past couple of months have seen a pickup in abandoned IBC deals.</li><li>Following nine deal cancelations in December, the second-highest monthly total in 2022 behind 10 in August, the first five weeks of 2023 have seen eight deals bite the dust—four in January and four in the first week of February.</li><li>There have been 69 deal terminations, with an aggregate deal value of ~$90 billion since the start of last year.</li></ul>

Deal terminations return to the spotlight. The past couple of months have seen a pickup in abandoned IBC deals.Following nine deal cancelations in December, the second-highest monthly total in 2022 behind 10 in August, the first five weeks of 2023 have seen eight deals bite the dust—four in January and four in the first week of February.There have been 69 deal terminations, with an aggregate deal value of ~$90 billion since the start of last year.

SPAC Talk: The Peripheralization of De-SPACs

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US: Recession Imminent, as M2 Needs to Contract Further to Squeeze Out Inflation

Despite the 1st YoY M2 contraction YoY in 80+ years, core PCE inflation is double the Fed target. More M2 contraction will drag the US to recession...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Macro Strategy– Has Global Liquidity (And the Equity Market) Bottomed Already?

JPY and CNY liquidity is on the RISE, which has turned the tide on “global liquidity”. Global liquidity bottomed in November, which ought to be...

Steno Research

SPX 4,200 Risk off Drivers

The stage is set for an equity/risk off decline after the SPX met our 4,200 rally objective as have Asian and European indices.

Thomas Schroeder

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

SPAC Talk: The Peripheralization of De-SPACs

Following nine deal cancelations in December, the second-highest monthly total in 2022 behind 10 in August, the first five weeks of 2023 have seen...

Water Tower Research