Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card Issuers, and Investment Banks/Brokers Groups. This is also confirmed by the XLF’s relative strength inflection higher. In this week’s report we narrow in on actionable ideas in the following Financial Groups:<ul><li>Mortgage Insurance (FN-20). MTG, RDN, ESNT, NMIH... pages 8-10</li><li>Credit Card Issuers (FN-27). AXP, COF, SYF, DFS... pages 11-13</li><li>Banks, Super-Regional (FN-15). BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, BBT, RF, FITB... pages 14-17</li><li>Banks, Western, Large-Cap (FN-16). SIVB, ZION, WAL, UMPQ, CATY... pages 18-20</li></ul>

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card Issuers, and Investment Banks/Brokers Groups. This is also confirmed by the XLF’s relative strength inflection higher. In this week’s report we narrow in on actionable ideas in the following Financial Groups:Mortgage Insurance (FN-20). MTG, RDN, ESNT, NMIH... pages 8-10Credit Card Issuers (FN-27). AXP, COF, SYF, DFS... pages 11-13Banks, Super-Regional (FN-15). BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, BBT, RF, FITB... pages 14-17Banks, Western, Large-Cap (FN-16). SIVB, ZION, WAL, UMPQ, CATY... pages 18-20

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">The advance estimate of Q3 GDP confirms that the US economy continues to enjoy robust, above-trend, non-inflationary GDP growth, which is unprecedented, even extraordinary, given the relative maturity of the economic cycle.  Below are 10 'nuggets' from the Q3 report that should cover all you need to know about this key data release. </div>Here are 10 key take-aways from the <a href="https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2017/pdf/gdp3q17_adv.pdf" target="_blank">BEA's advance estimate of US Q3 GDP</a>: 1) At 3% SAAR, the advance estimate was stronger than expected. Consensus estimates had…

The advance estimate of Q3 GDP confirms that the US economy continues to enjoy robust, above-trend, non-inflationary GDP growth, which is unprecedented, even extraordinary, given the relative maturity of the economic cycle.  Below are 10 'nuggets' from the Q3 report that should cover all you need to know about this key data release. Here are 10 key take-aways from the BEA's advance estimate of US Q3 GDP: 1) At 3% SAAR, the advance estimate was stronger than expected. Consensus estimates had…

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

The thirtieth anniversary of Black Monday in 1987 raises questions about whether the events leading up to the crash could unfold once again in the current environment.The Reagan Administration did not expect foreigners to view their fiscal policy conduct as profligate, while the decision to replace former Fed Chairman Volcker in July 1987 enhanced this unflattering impression.Rapidly eroding US equity valuations, both absolute and versus bonds, were largely ignored in 1987, even after the sacking of former Fed Chairman Volcker.Former Fed Chairman Greenspan was forced to raise interest rates during the 1988 Presidential Election campaign, an outcome President Reagan desperately sought to avoid.There are many similarities between the present environment and 1987 that investors should not ignore lightly, but equity valuations are currently higher, partly reflecting lower inflationary expectations as well as complacency.Significant equity shrinkage was a major reason propelling equity prices higher in 1987, but buybacks are less of an important factor in the current bull market.In contrast to 1987, huge US political dysfunctionality raises the risk of any significant future market fallout imparting serious damage on the real economy.

The thirtieth anniversary of Black Monday in 1987 raises questions about whether the events leading up to the crash could unfold once again in the current environment.The Reagan Administration did not expect foreigners to view their fiscal policy conduct as profligate, while the decision to replace former Fed Chairman Volcker in July 1987 enhanced this unflattering impression.Rapidly eroding US equity valuations, both absolute and versus bonds, were largely ignored in 1987, even after the sacking of former Fed Chairman Volcker.Former Fed Chairman Greenspan was forced to raise interest rates during the 1988 Presidential Election campaign, an outcome President Reagan desperately sought to avoid.There are many similarities between the present environment and 1987 that investors should not ignore lightly, but equity valuations are currently higher, partly reflecting lower inflationary expectations as well as complacency.Significant equity shrinkage was a major reason propelling equity prices higher in 1987, but buybacks are less of an important factor in the current bull market.In contrast to 1987, huge US political dysfunctionality raises the risk of any significant future market fallout imparting serious damage on the real economy.

30th Anniversary: Forget the Lessons of Black Monday 1987 at Your Peril

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Last week, Donald Trump came into his own on international issues, wrecking at least four of the institutional underpinnings of world order. On each of the issues, little consideration has been given to the consequences for the US and international order. The most serious of Trump's wrecking manoeuvres was the de-certification of the Iran nuclear deal, but the attempt to destroy NAFTA advanced rapidly too, threats to North Korea were stepped up noticeably, and the US withdrew from UNESCO…

Last week, Donald Trump came into his own on international issues, wrecking at least four of the institutional underpinnings of world order. On each of the issues, little consideration has been given to the consequences for the US and international order. The most serious of Trump's wrecking manoeuvres was the de-certification of the Iran nuclear deal, but the attempt to destroy NAFTA advanced rapidly too, threats to North Korea were stepped up noticeably, and the US withdrew from UNESCO…

Trump as a One-Man Wrecking Crew for World Order

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Topix is short-term overbought, both hourly (below) and daily (not shown), and is close to completing a 5-week 5-wave rally as it tests the 2015 peak. The 63-week cycle is also due to turn this week or next. Over the past 15 years, its effect has varied between marking major lows (2003) to almost no visible effect, and its influence does seem to have diminished at recent turns.  The current overall configuration suggests that only a minor top should occur now, and we’re not expecting more than a…

Topix is short-term overbought, both hourly (below) and daily (not shown), and is close to completing a 5-week 5-wave rally as it tests the 2015 peak. The 63-week cycle is also due to turn this week or next. Over the past 15 years, its effect has varied between marking major lows (2003) to almost no visible effect, and its influence does seem to have diminished at recent turns.  The current overall configuration suggests that only a minor top should occur now, and we’re not expecting more than a…

Topix: How the Indicators Look as the 2015 High Is Tested

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

U. S. Equity Strategy Weekly

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card...

Vermilion Research

US: More GDP Nuggets

The advance estimate of Q3 GDP confirms that the US economy continues to enjoy robust, above-trend, non-inflationary GDP growth, which is...