Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p style="text-align: justify;">Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to lead, we’re finally seeing the Energy  Sector contribute. And other economically sensitive Groups, like Casinos and Engineering &amp; Construction, are bullishly inflecting, confirming the risk-on message. Combined, this is (1) a positive sign for the market, and (2) actionable.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">In today’s report we highlight ideas within the following Groups: Engineering &amp; Construction, Semiconductors, and Auto Dealers.</p>

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to lead, we’re finally seeing the Energy  Sector contribute. And other economically sensitive Groups, like Casinos and Engineering &amp; Construction, are bullishly inflecting, confirming the risk-on message. Combined, this is (1) a positive sign for the market, and (2) actionable.In today’s report we highlight ideas within the following Groups: Engineering &amp; Construction, Semiconductors, and Auto Dealers.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Continue to Lead; Energy Is Bottoming.

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

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<p><strong>The US economy is booming; enjoying an extraordinary, non-inflationary surge despite the relative maturity of the current recovery. After back-to-back quarters of 3% annualised growth, the economy looks to have accelerated further with growth momentum closer to 4%! </strong></p>
<p><strong>A composite ISM index (weighted 80% services, 20% manufacturing) is comfortably the best short-run guide to growth momentum with a correlation of 79% vs. 6-month annualised GDP growth. At 60 in both September and October, the</strong>…</p>
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The US economy is booming; enjoying an extraordinary, non-inflationary surge despite the relative maturity of the current recovery. After back-to-back quarters of 3% annualised growth, the economy looks to have accelerated further with growth momentum closer to 4%! 
A composite ISM index (weighted 80% services, 20% manufacturing) is comfortably the best short-run guide to growth momentum with a correlation of 79% vs. 6-month annualised GDP growth. At 60 in both September and October, the…


<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>At 101 months and counting, the US's current expansion is now the second longest since WWII and closing in on <a href="http://www.nber.org/cycles.html" target="_blank">the 120 month record set between March 1991 and March 2001</a>. But as any middle-aged economist worth his salt will tell you. age is just a number!</strong></p>
<p><strong>Recessions are caused by sharp swings in cash-flows/spending triggered by external shocks, policy mistakes and shifts in future income expectations. Critically, just three components of domestic demand - residential investment, household spending</strong>…</p>
</div>


At 101 months and counting, the US's current expansion is now the second longest since WWII and closing in on the 120 month record set between March 1991 and March 2001. But as any middle-aged economist worth his salt will tell you. age is just a number!
Recessions are caused by sharp swings in cash-flows/spending triggered by external shocks, policy mistakes and shifts in future income expectations. Critically, just three components of domestic demand - residential investment, household spending…


Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Equity Bottom-Up

AAC Technologies Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<div class="content-highlight"><p>Overnight Update:</p></div><ul>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Jerome Powell is nominated by President Trump as the new Fed Chairman.  </strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Apple's iPhone X launch</strong></div></li>
</ul><p><strong>***********************************************************************************************************</strong></p><h2>The new Fed - what to expect?</h2><p>I bounced off ideas with my ex-colleagues on the market direction and monetary policy of the US. Since Janet Yellen was elected to be Fed Chair(wo)man, she has indicated for a rate hike on numerous occasions and have done so, bringing the Fed rate from…</p>

Overnight Update:
Jerome Powell is nominated by President Trump as the new Fed Chairman.  
Apple's iPhone X launch
***********************************************************************************************************The new Fed - what to expect?I bounced off ideas with my ex-colleagues on the market direction and monetary policy of the US. Since Janet Yellen was elected to be Fed Chair(wo)man, she has indicated for a rate hike on numerous occasions and have done so, bringing the Fed rate from…

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Janet Yellen's departure as Fed Chair is no surprise, but a pity. Despite constant criticism and a unprecedented lack of support from fiscal policy, Yellen leaves the US economy enjoying a truly golden conjuncture - 3-4% GDP growth, modest inflation, c.4% unemployment rate - that comes around only every 20 years or so. The 'exit' from extraodinarily loose monetary policy - which most analysts claimed was impossible - is increasingly advanced and, so far, proceeding smoothly. One measure of</strong>…</p></div>

Janet Yellen's departure as Fed Chair is no surprise, but a pity. Despite constant criticism and a unprecedented lack of support from fiscal policy, Yellen leaves the US economy enjoying a truly golden conjuncture - 3-4% GDP growth, modest inflation, c.4% unemployment rate - that comes around only every 20 years or so. The 'exit' from extraodinarily loose monetary policy - which most analysts claimed was impossible - is increasingly advanced and, so far, proceeding smoothly. One measure of…

Chart of the Day: Dammit, Janet! I Love You

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Continue to Lead; Energy Is Bottoming.

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to...

Vermilion Research

Chart of the Day: BOOM!

The US economy is booming; enjoying an extraordinary, non-inflationary surge despite the relative maturity of the current recovery. After...

Richard Iley

Chart of the Day: Age Is Just A Number

At 101 months and counting, the US's current expansion is now the second longest since WWII and closing in on the 120 month record set between...

Richard Iley

Fed and IPhone X

Overnight Update: Jerome Powell is nominated by President Trump as the new Fed Chairman. Apple's iPhone X...

Henry Soediarko

Chart of the Day: Dammit, Janet! I Love You

Janet Yellen's departure as Fed Chair is no surprise, but a pity. Despite constant criticism and a unprecedented lack of support from fiscal...

Richard Iley