Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our current, overbought extremes according to the S&amp;P 500’s percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (see chart below). We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process, and we prefer to be on the cautious side at current levels considering how far and how quickly the market has risen. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks within Materials and Technology: large- and small-cap gold, silver, platinum, and optical equipment companies.

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our current, overbought extremes according to the S&amp;P 500’s percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (see chart below). We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process, and we prefer to be on the cautious side at current levels considering how far and how quickly the market has risen. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks within Materials and Technology: large- and small-cap gold, silver, platinum, and optical equipment companies.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Nearing Short-Term Overbought Extremes

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed.  In our February International Strategy document, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, as well as a technical appraisal of each Sector and the investable opportunities therein.

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed.  In our February International Strategy document, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, as well as a technical appraisal of each Sector and the investable opportunities therein.

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

The S&amp;P 500 continues to hover below critical resistance at its 200-day moving average while market participants remain in a wait-and-see mode for new developments on U.S.-China trade and details on the latest border security proposal. At the same time, breadth improvements have extended to our Manufacturing Sector - a welcomed sight given its cyclical nature.  We are Upgrading Manufacturing to market weight from underweight. Our cap-weighted Manufacturing Sector has steadily improved in our RSR ranks due in large part to strength in Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups within Manufacturing and Technology..

The S&amp;P 500 continues to hover below critical resistance at its 200-day moving average while market participants remain in a wait-and-see mode for new developments on U.S.-China trade and details on the latest border security proposal. At the same time, breadth improvements have extended to our Manufacturing Sector - a welcomed sight given its cyclical nature.  We are Upgrading Manufacturing to market weight from underweight. Our cap-weighted Manufacturing Sector has steadily improved in our RSR ranks due in large part to strength in Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups within Manufacturing and Technology..

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Manufacturing Sector

Indonesia Political Risk Analyst

Kevin O’Rourke

Reformasi

Cross Asset Strategy

Campaigning is underway in the Democratic Party’s lengthy ‘primary’ process for determining a 2020 presidential nominee.  Polls suggest that ousting President Donald Trump is the foremost priority for most supporters of the party.  Relative to past elections, the party boasts an extraordinarily diverse and energetic field of declared and potential contenders.  Meanwhile, the president is clearly vulnerable. Much depends, however, on whether the eventual challenger combines relatively centrist economic views with a persona that can bridge America’s yawning cultural divide.  Because of the country’s anachronistic electoral‑college system, a nominee remote from the mainstream could alienate independents in ‘swing states’ and inadvertently aid Trump.  Attention is therefore focusing on the questions of who can beat Trump – and how.

Campaigning is underway in the Democratic Party’s lengthy ‘primary’ process for determining a 2020 presidential nominee.  Polls suggest that ousting President Donald Trump is the foremost priority for most supporters of the party.  Relative to past elections, the party boasts an extraordinarily diverse and energetic field of declared and potential contenders.  Meanwhile, the president is clearly vulnerable. Much depends, however, on whether the eventual challenger combines relatively centrist economic views with a persona that can bridge America’s yawning cultural divide.  Because of the country’s anachronistic electoral‑college system, a nominee remote from the mainstream could alienate independents in ‘swing states’ and inadvertently aid Trump.  Attention is therefore focusing on the questions of who can beat Trump – and how. 

The Nascent Democratic Primary: ‘How Best to Beat Trump?’

<ul>
<li>Trump won’t walk away from the Wall – but Pelosi need not budge on funding.  If Trump invokes emergency powers, Democrats would rejoice.</li>
<li>On Venezuela, the anti‑Cuba lobby in swing‑state Florida has transformed Trump from isolationist to hawk.</li>
</ul><ul><li>Posturing for domestic effect, Trump wants China talks to look tough – lest he appear to cave too readily.</li></ul>


Trump won’t walk away from the Wall – but Pelosi need not budge on funding.  If Trump invokes emergency powers, Democrats would rejoice.
On Venezuela, the anti‑Cuba lobby in swing‑state Florida has transformed Trump from isolationist to hawk.
Posturing for domestic effect, Trump wants China talks to look tough – lest he appear to cave too readily.

As Trump Turns: Tottering Towards Dem Trap on Wall; Posturing on China So Talks Look Tough

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Nearing Short-Term Overbought Extremes

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Manufacturing Sector

The S&P 500 continues to hover below critical resistance at its 200-day moving average while market participants remain in a wait-and-see mode...

Vermilion Research

The Nascent Democratic Primary: ‘How Best to Beat Trump?’

Campaigning is underway in the Democratic Party’s lengthy ‘primary’ process for determining a 2020 presidential nominee. Polls suggest that...

Kevin O’Rourke

As Trump Turns: Tottering Towards Dem Trap on Wall; Posturing on China So Talks Look Tough

Trump won’t walk away from the Wall – but Pelosi need not budge on funding. If Trump invokes emergency powers, Democrats would rejoice. On...

Kevin O’Rourke