Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Key Points:<ul>
<li>The Staples Sector is leadership and many names are staging price and RS reversals.</li>
<li>REIT’s are breaking above bases and are showing RS leadership.</li>
<li>Paper &amp; Forest products are strengthening and many are reversing price and RS downtrend or breaking above bases.</li>
<li>Large-Cap Pharma stocks are showing leadership. Many have broken topside of multi-year consolidations or have reversed multi-year price and RS downtrends.</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/059/921/original/Untitled.png?1533586859" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="59921"></figure>

Key Points:
The Staples Sector is leadership and many names are staging price and RS reversals.
REIT’s are breaking above bases and are showing RS leadership.
Paper &amp; Forest products are strengthening and many are reversing price and RS downtrend or breaking above bases.
Large-Cap Pharma stocks are showing leadership. Many have broken topside of multi-year consolidations or have reversed multi-year price and RS downtrends.


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

The monthly gain in non-farm payrolls (NFP) was a modest 157,000 in July 2018, well below consensus expectations of 190,000. Despite the considerable upward revisions of the previous two months' NFP, July was a softer month for a fiscally-fuelled US economy. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI moderated to an 11-month low of 55.7 (with the forward looking new orders slipping by 6.6 points MoM) and the manufacturing PMI was 1 point below its 12-month average in July, suggesting a broad-based loss of…

The monthly gain in non-farm payrolls (NFP) was a modest 157,000 in July 2018, well below consensus expectations of 190,000. Despite the considerable upward revisions of the previous two months' NFP, July was a softer month for a fiscally-fuelled US economy. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI moderated to an 11-month low of 55.7 (with the forward looking new orders slipping by 6.6 points MoM) and the manufacturing PMI was 1 point below its 12-month average in July, suggesting a broad-based loss of…

FOMC Retains Hawkish Tone Amid Higher Inflation, but ISM & NFP Betray First Signs of Growth Fatigue

The S&amp;P 500 remains in a long-term uptrend and a shorter-term, YTD consolidation. The next key resistance level to be tested is the all-time high of 2,873 which was set in January. On the plus side, the Advance-Decline (A-D) line, hit a new all-time high last week. Additionally, cap- and equal-weighted cyclicals vs. staples ratios have given up some ground recently but remain conducive to a risk-on environment.In today’s report we provide a complete U.S. equity strategy overview, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Discretionary sector, including: auto parts, small-cap apparel, accessory &amp; luxury goods, and off-price retailers.

The S&amp;P 500 remains in a long-term uptrend and a shorter-term, YTD consolidation. The next key resistance level to be tested is the all-time high of 2,873 which was set in January. On the plus side, the Advance-Decline (A-D) line, hit a new all-time high last week. Additionally, cap- and equal-weighted cyclicals vs. staples ratios have given up some ground recently but remain conducive to a risk-on environment.In today’s report we provide a complete U.S. equity strategy overview, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Discretionary sector, including: auto parts, small-cap apparel, accessory &amp; luxury goods, and off-price retailers.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Retailing Stocks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Trump's kowtow to Putin in Helsinki, coupled with the tightening of Mueller's vise around the 2016 Trump campaign's close ties to Russia, have tilted the balance in favour of moves to impeach Trump in 2019, once the Democrats have regained the House in this November's mid-term election. Although a Democrat-controlled House will impeach Trump, the Senate remains likely to vote against his ouster -- unless Mueller finds clinching evidence of clear collusion with Russia. With all Americans indicted…

Trump's kowtow to Putin in Helsinki, coupled with the tightening of Mueller's vise around the 2016 Trump campaign's close ties to Russia, have tilted the balance in favour of moves to impeach Trump in 2019, once the Democrats have regained the House in this November's mid-term election. Although a Democrat-controlled House will impeach Trump, the Senate remains likely to vote against his ouster -- unless Mueller finds clinching evidence of clear collusion with Russia. With all Americans indicted…

Will They Impeach? Not Yet, but Far More Likely in 2019, when a Recession Is Also Probable

Today's key points:<ul>
<li>Property &amp; Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts.</li>
<li>Airlines are staging price and SR reversals to the upside and/or are breaking out.</li>
<li>Railroad related names are breaking out.</li>
<li>We have been bearish on the Semiconductor and Suppliers industry since February; however we are seeing some near term reversals at support levels.</li>
</ul>Highlighted charts: SUP, CMG, LOCO, MCS, EXPE, AMZN, WBA, K, NR, NOV, SLCA, BHGE, OIS, HLX, JPM, WFC, KEY, AXP, AFL, TMK, HSIC, ZBH, OMCL, ANTM, LLY, PFE, AGN, B, WM, ESND, ECHO, and SKYW.

Today's key points:
Property &amp; Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts.
Airlines are staging price and SR reversals to the upside and/or are breaking out.
Railroad related names are breaking out.
We have been bearish on the Semiconductor and Suppliers industry since February; however we are seeing some near term reversals at support levels.
Highlighted charts: SUP, CMG, LOCO, MCS, EXPE, AMZN, WBA, K, NR, NOV, SLCA, BHGE, OIS, HLX, JPM, WFC, KEY, AXP, AFL, TMK, HSIC, ZBH, OMCL, ANTM, LLY, PFE, AGN, B, WM, ESND, ECHO, and SKYW.

U.S. Vital Signs - Actionable Charts of the Day

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

U.S. Vital Signs: Actionable Stocks

Key Points: The Staples Sector is leadership and many names are staging price and RS reversals. REIT’s are breaking above bases and are showing RS...

Vermilion Research

FOMC Retains Hawkish Tone Amid Higher Inflation, but ISM & NFP Betray First Signs of Growth Fatigue

The monthly gain in non-farm payrolls (NFP) was a modest 157,000 in July 2018, well below consensus expectations of 190,000. Despite the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Retailing Stocks

The S&P 500 remains in a long-term uptrend and a shorter-term, YTD consolidation. The next key resistance level to be tested is the all-time...

Vermilion Research

Will They Impeach? Not Yet, but Far More Likely in 2019, when a Recession Is Also Probable

Trump's kowtow to Putin in Helsinki, coupled with the tightening of Mueller's vise around the 2016 Trump campaign's close ties to Russia, have...

Prasenjit K. Basu

U.S. Vital Signs - Actionable Charts of the Day

Today's key points: Property & Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts. Airlines are staging price and SR...

Vermilion Research