Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.</li>
<li>The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). </li>
<li>These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.</li>
</ul>


Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

<ul>
<li>Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.</li>
<li>Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.</li>
</ul>


Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.
Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.


Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Sept. 27) we discussed our belief that market indexes could see a bounce or pause in selling, citing numerous oversold indexes/Sectors that were testing critical supports.</li>
<li>Supports included 3636 on the S&amp;P 500, $269 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $162 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Supports held, and early indications suggest a bear market rally is brewing (at minimum), helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns on the DXY and 10-year Treasury yield last Wednesday.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Sept. 27) we discussed our belief that market indexes could see a bounce or pause in selling, citing numerous oversold indexes/Sectors that were testing critical supports.
Supports included 3636 on the S&amp;P 500, $269 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $162 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Supports held, and early indications suggest a bear market rally is brewing (at minimum), helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns on the DXY and 10-year Treasury yield last Wednesday.


Another Bear Market Rally Brewing?; Stick With Biotech and Construction/Engineering Names

<ul>
<li>The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. </li>
<li>Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.</li>
<li>We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)</li>
</ul>


The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. 
Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.
We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)


US Dollar & 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Stick With Energy, Also Buying China Education Svcs

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see the current environment as a bear market rally with the potential for it turn into something more following bullish breadth thrust signals.</li>
<li>The SPX and NDX have been treading water for a week (bull flags?), but the Russell 2000, DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI), and KWEB have continued to move higher.</li>
<li>We are also seeing major bullish reversals on Europe's STOXX 50 and Japan's Nikkei 225, topside 6- and 9-month downtrends, respectively. These are far from bearish signs.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see the current environment as a bear market rally with the potential for it turn into something more following bullish breadth thrust signals.
The SPX and NDX have been treading water for a week (bull flags?), but the Russell 2000, DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI), and KWEB have continued to move higher.
We are also seeing major bullish reversals on Europe's STOXX 50 and Japan's Nikkei 225, topside 6- and 9-month downtrends, respectively. These are far from bearish signs.


Small-Caps Starting to Lead; Short-Term Flag Patterns on Major Indexes; Ideas in Energy & Materials

United States

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ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO US)

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Since late November we have discussed our expectations for a pullback, recommending shifting exposure to defensives $XLP $XLV $XLU and/or taking...

Vermilion Research

Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Our $IWM target (its 200-day MA) has been hit and our $SPX target is less than 1% away. Still, the rally is poised to continue following breaks in...

Vermilion Research

Another Bear Market Rally Brewing?; Stick With Biotech and Construction/Engineering Names

Early indications suggest another bear market rally in $SPX, and potentially that the lows are in, helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns...

Vermilion Research

US Dollar & 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Stick With Energy, Also Buying China Education Svcs

US Dollar $DXY & 10-Year Treasury Yield $TNX Breaking Out; Broad Equity Market Not Likely to Bottom Until the USD and Treasury Yields Start Moving...

Vermilion Research

Small-Caps Starting to Lead; Short-Term Flag Patterns on Major Indexes; Ideas in Energy & Materials

We still see this as a bear market rally with the potential for it turn into something more following bullish breadth thrust signals in recent...

Vermilion Research

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