Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).</li>
<li>Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.</li>
<li>We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.


Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the SPX (7-10% downside).</li>
<li>To be clear, we aren't calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&amp;P 500, and we want to be prepared for anything.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, we remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the SPX (7-10% downside).
To be clear, we aren't calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&amp;P 500, and we want to be prepared for anything.
Shorter-Term, we remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.


Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

<ul>
<li>The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change</li>
<li>In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.</li>
<li>Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates</li>
</ul>


The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change
In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.
Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates


Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

<ul>
<li>Ever since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder, our view has been that we cannot be bearish unless a key support level breaks (at the time, that was 4050 on the SPX).</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is now above 4300-4325 -- a level that, in January this year, we had anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>We believe 4300-4325 will act as major support moving forward, and we are bullish as long as the SPX is above 4300; we discussed this in our 7/3/23 ETF Pathfinder.</li>
</ul>


Ever since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder, our view has been that we cannot be bearish unless a key support level breaks (at the time, that was 4050 on the SPX).
The S&amp;P 500 is now above 4300-4325 -- a level that, in January this year, we had anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
We believe 4300-4325 will act as major support moving forward, and we are bullish as long as the SPX is above 4300; we discussed this in our 7/3/23 ETF Pathfinder.


DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week how consolidation was likely, so far that has played out with the SPX back testing the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4300.</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 (IWM) is back to test support at $180; we would expect to see this hold as support, but a failure to hold would mean a trip to $170<span id="autocomplete"><span id="autocomplete-searchtext"></span></span>
</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week how consolidation was likely, so far that has played out with the SPX back testing the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4300.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) is back to test support at $180; we would expect to see this hold as support, but a failure to hold would mean a trip to $170



Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

United States

MasTec, Inc. is a specialty contractor operating across a range of industries. The Company activities are the building, installation, maintenance, and upgrade of utility and communications infrastructure, including electrical utility transmission and distribution, wind farms, solar farms, renewable energy and natural gas infrastructure, wireless, and wireline.

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Mastec Inc (MTZ US)

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM $RTY $IJH $MDY $VXF; Broadening Participation (NYSE Net New...

Vermilion Research

Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Gold $GLD $GC_F Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as $DXY and Treasury Yields Roll Over $TNX $TYX; Seeing More Risk-On Signals, Not Less....

Vermilion Research

DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000

$DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX $RSP, Dow $DJI, and Russell 2000 $IWM $RTY. $SPX remains bullish as...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

Russell 2000 $IWM Testing $180 Support; $RTY $SPX Breadth Remains Constructive; Highlighting buy ideas in Services (Research/Consulting &...

Vermilion Research

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