New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Manawa Energy's (MNW) updated FY23 and FY24 guidance highlights the cost of developing options and the vagaries of the wholesale electricity market.</li><li>Strong 4Q23 hydro generation has boosted FY23 EBITDAF earnings to the top of MNW's NZ$127.5m to NZ$140.0m guidance range</li><li>FY24 has been impacted by increasing development costs and lower ASX futures prices, reducing FY24 earnings expectations</li></ul>

Manawa Energy's (MNW) updated FY23 and FY24 guidance highlights the cost of developing options and the vagaries of the wholesale electricity market.Strong 4Q23 hydro generation has boosted FY23 EBITDAF earnings to the top of MNW's NZ$127.5m to NZ$140.0m guidance rangeFY24 has been impacted by increasing development costs and lower ASX futures prices, reducing FY24 earnings expectations

Manawa Energy: Wholesale Hits to Earnings

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Development pipeline goes to the next level: the headline sector generation development pipeline increased +8.2TWh (+38%) in February 2023, mainly due to MEL revealing a big increase in early stage options</li><li>1H23 results deliver strong earnings growth as expected, dividend growth more muted</li><li>Operating conditions continue to favour North Island hydro generators: February 2023 North Island hydro generation was +47% above average, a continuation of recent trends</li></ul>

Development pipeline goes to the next level: the headline sector generation development pipeline increased +8.2TWh (+38%) in February 2023, mainly due to MEL revealing a big increase in early stage options1H23 results deliver strong earnings growth as expected, dividend growth more mutedOperating conditions continue to favour North Island hydro generators: February 2023 North Island hydro generation was +47% above average, a continuation of recent trends

Power Points: Developing Overbuild Risk — March 2023

<ul><li>Following relative share price weakness over the past two months in Contact Energy (CEN) and share price strength in Meridian Energy (MEL) we upgrade CEN to NEUTRAL (from UNDERPERFORM) and downgrade MEL to UNDERPERFORM (from NEUTRAL)</li><li>ASX futures appear mispriced given movements in underlying drivers</li><li>Tale of two islands as weather gods bless MCY and GNE, hang CEN out to dry</li></ul>

Following relative share price weakness over the past two months in Contact Energy (CEN) and share price strength in Meridian Energy (MEL) we upgrade CEN to NEUTRAL (from UNDERPERFORM) and downgrade MEL to UNDERPERFORM (from NEUTRAL)ASX futures appear mispriced given movements in underlying driversTale of two islands as weather gods bless MCY and GNE, hang CEN out to dry

Power Points: Future Expectations Too High — February 2023

<ul><li>December rounded out 2022 with another month of high renewable electricity generation (96%) and low wholesale electricity prices (Otahuhu [OTA] prices averaged just NZ$19/MWh) with North Island hydro generator’s Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE) having the best of the conditions</li><li>Looking ahead to 2023, we expect many of the themes that dominated 2022 to continue, with a key focus on new developments</li><li>We see share price risks to the downside, with the electricity sector’s defensive characteristics less beneficial during a market recovery</li></ul>

December rounded out 2022 with another month of high renewable electricity generation (96%) and low wholesale electricity prices (Otahuhu [OTA] prices averaged just NZ$19/MWh) with North Island hydro generator’s Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE) having the best of the conditionsLooking ahead to 2023, we expect many of the themes that dominated 2022 to continue, with a key focus on new developmentsWe see share price risks to the downside, with the electricity sector’s defensive characteristics less beneficial during a market recovery

Power Points: Looking Ahead to 2023 — January 2023

<ul><li>Unit 5 maintenance and hydro combine to push renewable generation to fresh highs</li><li>Valuations ease, but sector remains over-valued</li><li>Wind turbine demand softens in the face of rising prices, leaving window of opportunity for NZ developers</li></ul>

Unit 5 maintenance and hydro combine to push renewable generation to fresh highsValuations ease, but sector remains over-valuedWind turbine demand softens in the face of rising prices, leaving window of opportunity for NZ developers

Power Points: Record Renewables — December 2022

New Zealand

Manawa Energy Limited is a renewable energy company. The Company generate powers through hydro power stations and wind farms throughout Australasia. Manawa Energy is also engaged in electricity distribution.

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Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)

Manawa Energy: Wholesale Hits to Earnings

Manawa Energy's (MNW) updated FY23 and FY24 guidance highlights the cost of developing options and the vagaries of the wholesale electricity...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Developing Overbuild Risk — March 2023

February 2023 was again characterised by high North Island hydro generation, which is good news for Genesis Energy (GNE) and Mercury (MCY), but the...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Future Expectations Too High — February 2023

Following relative share price weakness over the past two months in Contact Energy (CEN) and share price strength in Meridian Energy (MEL) we...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Looking Ahead to 2023 — January 2023

December rounded out 2022 with another month of high renewable electricity generation (96%) and low wholesale electricity prices (Otahuhu [OTA]...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Record Renewables — December 2022

The story of November 2022 was the record high 97% of electricity generation coming from renewable sources, well north of the previous record of...

Forsyth Barr

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