New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are expecting Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result to be a step-up on 1H23 aided by hydro generation volumes that are up +13% on a difficult prior half year.</li><li>The 1H24 result should be close to a normal result for MNW, with hydro generation only +3% above average.</li><li>Whilst we are expecting a strong 1H24 result relative to a weak 1H23 performance, MNW's challenges remain building a development pipeline and being cost competitive relative to its peers. </li></ul>

We are expecting Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result to be a step-up on 1H23 aided by hydro generation volumes that are up +13% on a difficult prior half year.The 1H24 result should be close to a normal result for MNW, with hydro generation only +3% above average.Whilst we are expecting a strong 1H24 result relative to a weak 1H23 performance, MNW's challenges remain building a development pipeline and being cost competitive relative to its peers. 

Manawa Energy - Having Hydro Helps—1H24 Op Stats, Preview

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>September 2023 was a typical El Niño month resulting in record wind generation and strong hydro generation conditions for the lower South Island stations.</li><li>Interest rates marched higher in September 2023, lifting ~+50bp (and have continued to lift).</li><li>Sector share prices were down, but not enough to prevent the dividend yield spread to bond rates falling to a record low. </li></ul>

September 2023 was a typical El Niño month resulting in record wind generation and strong hydro generation conditions for the lower South Island stations.Interest rates marched higher in September 2023, lifting ~+50bp (and have continued to lift).Sector share prices were down, but not enough to prevent the dividend yield spread to bond rates falling to a record low. 

Power Points - El Niño Blows Into Town — September 2023

<ul><li>August 2023 saw the big four generator/retailers report operating results in line with expectations, but collectively they guided to cost increases ~2.5x forecast FY24 inflation, tempering the earnings outlook.</li><li>Development continues apace with six generation and two battery projects costing ~NZ$2.5b expected to reach final investment decision (FID) in FY24, although a positive NZAS decision is likely a pre-requisite for most of the projects.</li><li>August 2023 share price performance for most of the generator/retailers was weak, resulting in dividend yield spreads climbing off record lows. </li></ul>

August 2023 saw the big four generator/retailers report operating results in line with expectations, but collectively they guided to cost increases ~2.5x forecast FY24 inflation, tempering the earnings outlook.Development continues apace with six generation and two battery projects costing ~NZ$2.5b expected to reach final investment decision (FID) in FY24, although a positive NZAS decision is likely a pre-requisite for most of the projects.August 2023 share price performance for most of the generator/retailers was weak, resulting in dividend yield spreads climbing off record lows. 

Power Points - Costs Crescendo — September 2023

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>July 2023 saw above average hydro conditions continue, with the exception of the lower South Island.</li><li>The big news of the month came from the Government reversing its emissions trading scheme (ETS) settings decision, which helped carbon prices recover to ~NZ$60/unit from a low of ~NZ$35/unit in late June 2023.</li><li>Electricity stocks continue to perform well despite interest rates edging higher and ASX futures prices edging lower as the market continues to favour risk off. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

July 2023 saw above average hydro conditions continue, with the exception of the lower South Island.The big news of the month came from the Government reversing its emissions trading scheme (ETS) settings decision, which helped carbon prices recover to ~NZ$60/unit from a low of ~NZ$35/unit in late June 2023.Electricity stocks continue to perform well despite interest rates edging higher and ASX futures prices edging lower as the market continues to favour risk off. 

Power Points - Offshore Wind Brewing - August 2023

<ul><li>Another wet month caps FY23 for the big four generator/retailers: June 2023 was the 12th month in a row where North Island hydro generation was at least +19% above average — it has been a record breaking hydro generating year.</li><li>Desperately seeking certainty: The carbon market is desperate for some certainty with June the sixth out of the last seven months when carbon unit prices have fallen.</li><li>Fonterra spruiks future electricity demand: Fonterra sent out requests for electricity supply from 2026 for its dairy factories.</li></ul>

Another wet month caps FY23 for the big four generator/retailers: June 2023 was the 12th month in a row where North Island hydro generation was at least +19% above average — it has been a record breaking hydro generating year.Desperately seeking certainty: The carbon market is desperate for some certainty with June the sixth out of the last seven months when carbon unit prices have fallen.Fonterra spruiks future electricity demand: Fonterra sent out requests for electricity supply from 2026 for its dairy factories.

Power Points: Carbon Confidence Crisis — July 2023

New Zealand

Manawa Energy Limited is a renewable energy company. The Company generate powers through hydro power stations and wind farms throughout Australasia. Manawa Energy is also engaged in electricity distribution.

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Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)

Manawa Energy - Having Hydro Helps—1H24 Op Stats, Preview

We are expecting Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result to be a step-up on 1H23 aided by hydro generation volumes that are up +13% on a difficult prior...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - El Niño Blows Into Town — September 2023

September 2023 was a typical El Niño month resulting in record wind generation and strong hydro generation conditions for the lower South Island...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Costs Crescendo — September 2023

August 2023 share price performance for most of the generator/retailers was weak, resulting in dividend yield spreads climbing off record lows.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Offshore Wind Brewing - August 2023

Electricity stocks continue to perform well despite interest rates edging higher and ASX futures prices edging lower as the market continues to...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Carbon Confidence Crisis — July 2023

June 2023 saw carbon unit prices collapse, with prices now NZ$36.5/tonne, down -40% in the past three weeks due to a lack of confidence in the...

Forsyth Barr

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