New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Whilst NZAS will have to pay more for its electricity it is compensated by strong aluminium prices</li><li>MEL is in the box seat to supply less, with CEN, MCY and MNW to supply more</li><li>Big earnings uplift for MEL from CY2025, CEN and MNW an earnings hit, MCY a negative value impact</li></ul>

Whilst NZAS will have to pay more for its electricity it is compensated by strong aluminium pricesMEL is in the box seat to supply less, with CEN, MCY and MNW to supply moreBig earnings uplift for MEL from CY2025, CEN and MNW an earnings hit, MCY a negative value impact

Electricity Sector: NZAS Set to Stay, But Will Have to Pay

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Dividend the big disappointment, rising capex outlook the main issue</li><li>Weak 1H23 EBITDAF consistent with expectations, no change to FY23 EBITDAF guidance of NZ$127.5m to NZ$140.0m</li><li>Development pipeline grows, but still lots of work to do</li></ul>

Dividend the big disappointment, rising capex outlook the main issueWeak 1H23 EBITDAF consistent with expectations, no change to FY23 EBITDAF guidance of NZ$127.5m to NZ$140.0mDevelopment pipeline grows, but still lots of work to do

Manawa Energy: Dividend Sticker Shock — 1H23 Result

<ul><li>October 2022 was a repeat of recent months, with continued strong North Island hydro generation, low wholesale electricity spot prices, and rising interest rates continuing to squeeze sector valuations</li><li>Wholesale market conditions again favour North Island generators</li><li>Wholesale market conditions again favour North Island generators</li></ul>

October 2022 was a repeat of recent months, with continued strong North Island hydro generation, low wholesale electricity spot prices, and rising interest rates continuing to squeeze sector valuationsWholesale market conditions again favour North Island generatorsWholesale market conditions again favour North Island generators

Power Points: Wind Blows, Hydro Flows — November 2022

<ul><li>Manawa Energy's (MNW) 2Q23 operating statistics were accompanied by a -NZ$16m (-11%) FY23 EBITDAF guidance downgrade, predominantly due to soft hydro generation and elevated development costs</li><li>Our forecast changes reflect revised guidance, stronger wholesale prices and higher inflation</li><li>1H23 result will be soft, first time MNW dividend will be the key focus</li></ul>

Manawa Energy's (MNW) 2Q23 operating statistics were accompanied by a -NZ$16m (-11%) FY23 EBITDAF guidance downgrade, predominantly due to soft hydro generation and elevated development costsOur forecast changes reflect revised guidance, stronger wholesale prices and higher inflation1H23 result will be soft, first time MNW dividend will be the key focus

Manawa Energy: Developing Future Earnings Hurts FY23

<ul><li>First trading of 2026 ASX futures shows only a small decline from 2025 prices</li><li>Cold snap at the beginning of September 2022 highlights the need for gas-peaking plant</li><li>If the fixed interest market is right, electricity stocks are expensive</li></ul>

First trading of 2026 ASX futures shows only a small decline from 2025 pricesCold snap at the beginning of September 2022 highlights the need for gas-peaking plantIf the fixed interest market is right, electricity stocks are expensive

Power Points: Wild Wholesale Price Ride — October 2022

New Zealand

Manawa Energy Limited is a renewable energy company. The Company generate powers through hydro power stations and wind farms throughout Australasia. Manawa Energy is also engaged in electricity distribution.

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Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)

Electricity Sector: NZAS Set to Stay, But Will Have to Pay

NZAS is set to remain open as the focus on decarbonisation means the economics of hydro-backed aluminium smelters have never looked better; We have...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy: Dividend Sticker Shock — 1H23 Result

Manawa Energy's (MNW) inaugural 1H23 result delivered weak earnings (as expected), but an even weaker dividend as the stay-in-business...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Wind Blows, Hydro Flows — November 2022

October 2022 was a repeat of recent months, with continued strong North Island hydro generation, low wholesale electricity spot prices, and rising...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy: Developing Future Earnings Hurts FY23

Manawa Energy's (MNW) 2Q23 operating statistics were accompanied by a -NZ$16m (-11%) FY23 EBITDAF guidance downgrade, predominantly due to soft...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Wild Wholesale Price Ride — October 2022

The cold snap in early September 2022 resulted in wild wholesale electricity price fluctuations, highlighting the market would benefit from more...

Forsyth Barr

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